Model Output Discussion - early October

[Iceaxecrampon]

31 minutes ago, tight isobar said:

Certainly..

These are the sort of ens...we should be looking for...in both style...And trend-when looking for  a transfer to cold/colder...

And the trend is fitting!!!

 

And as mentioned..

The 6z gfs -raw-..

Looks a classic off the path suite!!...as reflected in its ensembles

Up and down in the short term like the proverbial Brides - talk about make your mind up 

Charts are never dull atm - one thing for sure end of the week its......

 

[MATTWOLVES 3]

28 minutes ago, Iceaxecrampon said:

Up and down in the short term like the proverbial Brides - talk about make your mind up 

Charts are never dull atm - one thing for sure end of the week its......

 

Up and down like you say, but still good to see a fair few ensembles flagging up cold so early! Let's see where the 12s lead us, and more importantly the ECM later... Not so sure about cranking the heating up... I actually have it turned off in the room I sleep in! Much happier sticking my head out the window on a sub zero night..

[johnholmes]

Just adding my comments re the possible colder interlude. Mind you some of you do need a touch of realism in my view, certainly away from the high hills for Scotland, N Ireland and the northern Pennines for snow falling let alone lying. Just take a look at the statistics for how often it snows in late October/early November.

Anyway the 500 mb anomaly charts have, over the past 2-3 days started to come to a degree of agreement of height rises in the 6-10 day period NW of the UK. Indeed the NOAA 8-14 seems to be going along a similar idea to its 6-10 day output. All 3 show the marked troughing west of the ridge. NOAA seems not interested in what the EC-GFS thinks will develop east of the ridge. How settled or unsettled is of course not something that is that clear yet on the 500 mb charts. Expect the synoptic outputs be that 2x daily or 4x to vary from run to run for a while. Also remember in the further reaches, say post 7-8 days check like with like not run to run.

http://mp1.met.psu.edu/~fxg1/ECMWF_0z/hgtcomp.html

Climate Prediction Center - 6-10 Day 500mb Outlook

WWW.CPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV

 

[Jordan S]

4 hours ago, Badgers01 said:

Surely that would suggest heavy heavy rain somewhere with such a temp differential- maybe that will be the headline grabber !?

That and potentially some very strong winds grabbing people's attention too. 

[Jordan S]

Gfs still showing a nasty low in fact the winds are stronger and further north with this update very heavy rainfall across a good swathe of England and Wales with snow for the hills of north Wales northern England?

In my opinion the gfs is probably over estimating the snow risk. arpege is further north with this low pressure system and mostly rain is shown for northern areas. 

dwd is in similar agreement though shows more in the way of hill snow for the North..

one thing they all agree on is very strong winds for England and Wales during Friday but the position and track of this is not nailed on not suprising as its still 3 days away but we'll wait and see what tonight's output shows. 

[shaky]

Icon 12z further south again with that shortwave!!looks cooler aswell!!

[Jordan S]

The Netwx model is in very good agreement with the gfs bringing the rain further south and very strong winds in similar areas whether this means they are right is yet to be seen. 

[MattStoke]

1 minute ago, jordan smith said:

The Netwx model is in very good agreement with the gfs bringing the rain further south and very strong winds in similar areas whether this means they are right is yet to be seen. 

Isn't that model just a higher resolution version of the GFS, drawing off the same data?

[Paul]

2 minutes ago, MattStoke said:

Isn't that model just a higher resolution version of the GFS, drawing off the same data?

It uses the GFS data as a base, but has its own physics for rainfall etc. 

[Mapantz]

Here's a UKV rainfall GIF from the 03Z:

Very much inline with current warnings.

[MattStoke]

ICON mounting up the rainfall totals for Friday.

[shaky]

Definate improvements on gfs 12z early on compared to 06z run if you like cold frosty weather!!high further west!!ukmo looks really nice with high much further west and north!!

[Iceaxecrampon]

12z 

ppn still with us 1500ft asl

Not enough cold in place but still impressed on how early in season for a top dusting. 

[feb1991blizzard]

4 minutes ago, Iceaxecrampon said:

12z 

ppn still with us 1500ft asl

Not enough cold in place but still impressed on how early in season for a top dusting. 

Just shows you how poor the GFS for precipitation type - that is showing snow for a huge chunk of N England, at least 50% of that area covered by snow falling is well below 1000ft, it has me down for snow when it is most likely going to be 9c at the time.

[SMU]

6 minutes ago, Iceaxecrampon said:

12z 

ppn still with us 1500ft asl

Not enough cold in place but still impressed on how early in season for a top dusting. 

I will have to investigate where the projected snow line will be.

All things considered 300-400M is probs best !

[Methuselah]

The Great Escape? From the rim of the NW Members' Bin of Shame (the 12Z is always crap) at T+204:

   

To the NW Members' Hall of Fame (the 12Z is the best!) at T+240...Harry Houdini himself couldn't have done a better job!

   

Praise be, for the 12Z!

[Jordan S]

Gfs has the winds stronger on its recent update..

Gem's output and the dwd Icons have clearly trended the system for Friday a little further south but gem shows the frontal wave developing into some sort of low pressure centre but with the coldfront linking up with the low out west bringing in a conveyor belt of heavy rainfall during Saturday with it again developing another centre before clearing through..

Gem. 

This is quite similar to what the Gfs was showing a couple days ago seems the Gem plays catch up with the gfs quite often.. Icon has more of a straightforward deep area of low pressure pushing across England and Wales heavy rain and gales possible showing very little snow for the hills of northern England the cold front from this system takes its time to move through to the south of the country during Saturday with winds turning more to the north..some sort of agreement starting to unfold?.. 

Will mention the longer term later. 

Edited October 22, 2019 by jordan smith

[I remember Atlantic 252]

UKMO still looks wrong, to me this looks like a decent day here? 15 degrees and dryish

[MATTWOLVES 3]

Sorry to keep harping on about it, but again we see some very nice cold runs on the 12z ensembles.. So that's a fair few runs over the last few days highlighting the fact we could indeed be moving into a colder spell come November.... All a long way off I no, but the trends remain our friends. I was asked today what I wanted for Xmas!!! I simply said I want a December 2010 re run!! Needles to say they looked at me like I'd gone out.... But I think we all know what I mean on here anyway... 

Edited October 22, 2019 by Mattwolves

[Jordan S]

No need to apologise mat I like reading your posts i've mentioned Friday's system numerous times today and continuing on that note this is the arpege's view it still has Friday's heavy rain further north than the other models I suspect it will trend south too then the cold front sweeping southeastwards during the early hours of Saturday a little snow on the hills but showing mostly rain even there arpege definitely more Conservative with any hill snow. 

Very windy for England and Wales that's something they all agree on but precise placement is further north with this model. 

Edited October 22, 2019 by jordan smith

[James1979]

1 hour ago, jordan smith said:

Gfs has the winds stronger on its recent update..

Gem's output and the dwd Icons have clearly trended the system for Friday a little further south but gem shows the frontal wave developing into some sort of low pressure centre but with the coldfront linking up with the low out west bringing in a conveyor belt of heavy rainfall during Saturday with it again developing another centre before clearing through..

Gem. 

This is quite similar to what the Gfs was showing a couple days ago seems the Gem plays catch up with the gfs quite often.. Icon has more of a straightforward deep area of low pressure pushing across England and Wales heavy rain and gales possible showing very little snow for the hills of northern England the cold front from this system takes its time to move through to the south of the country during Saturday with winds turning more to the north..some sort of agreement starting to unfold?.. 

Will mention the longer term later. 

A little unusual isn't it to have the strongest winds inland (right over mby!)?

One to watch then given the time of year and a lot of trees still in full leaf. Will be wfh then!

[Jordan S]

16 minutes ago, James1979 said:

A little unusual isn't it to have the strongest winds inland (right over mby!)?

One to watch then given the time of year and a lot of trees still in full leaf. Will be wfh then!

Well the gfs doesnt pick up on local detail too well but the coast would have stronger gusts this gives you a general idea of the wind gusts inland.. these wind speeds shown are pretty common for this time of year anyway. 

Edited October 22, 2019 by jordan smith

[Methuselah]

And here are the GEFS 12Z ensembles; I'd put the start of their collective descent into La La Land at around Day 7...?

   

   

 

[tight isobar]

Ecm..

Gonna Chuck in the 'vents here also'=

As this feature is miss-looked.

The by standing momentum ..is one of revesre..And relax!

 

With regard to waa (warm air advection)- into higher lattitudes.

It's likely going to be a decent rolling sequence...as the polar vortex...builds...then busts...

Take these snaps...as starting pistol!!

Gain is almost eye watering...as for pact/mother lobe-limpet...non establishment this season!!!

 

Later post ....Will note my thinking/-co-ordinates!!!

 

Edited October 22, 2019 by tight isobar

[SMU]

ECM going for a prolonged spell below Normal tonight- from day 4 over the North & day 5 onwards in the south with winds staying in the North or North East.

Even at day 10 no sign of the pattern collapsing....