Model Output Discussion - early October

[Frosty.]

Some nice cold charts this morning, much more so than this time yesterday in my unbiased opinion!❄

 

[Iceaxecrampon]

10 hours ago, MattStoke said:

Some wet snow for the top of Snowdonia and the Pennines. Cold rain elsewhere.

Yes - probable outcome - much too early.

[Iceaxecrampon]

10 hours ago, jordan smith said:

Definitely a subtle shift south with this vigorous wave depression with the heaviest rain now shown for the Midlands and Southern England gales restricted to the far south east and southern coasts, snow still progged mainly for the hills but perhaps like others have said the north Midlands and north Wales instead of northern England this would bring a real soaking to England and Wales though and exacerbate any high river levels currently.. 

but if this trends any further south which is a possibility then hills further south may get the wintriness and gales remain to the south alternatively it could trend further north and if that's the case then wind would probably be more of a talking point.. this needs watching very closely will not be suprised to see this being a named storm if this came off but that's not definite and intensity will fluctuate.. just needs more aggreement from other models. 

00z SLP for same timescale Friday 25th best at 988mb poss shift SSE?

What it drags with it should be interesting for the Gorm tops.

[Iceaxecrampon]

GFS anomaly? 

Midnight....!

SE temps - summers nearly back.

[Badgers01]

4 minutes ago, Iceaxecrampon said:

GFS anomaly? 

Midnight....!

SE temps - summers nearly back.

Surely that would suggest heavy heavy rain somewhere with such a temp differential- maybe that will be the headline grabber !?

[MATTWOLVES 3]

Looking at the 0z ensembles, there are still some crackers in there giving various cold shots, some more Intense than others! What I have noticed is how the control run has gone from the coldest, to the warmest overnight!! There are indeed some warm runs to, which the ensemble graph shows. The mean still remaining on the chilly side overall! Worth noting is an ever present cold pool now showing to the NE/E of us on many of the runs. Should be an interesting few weeks if at times this remains present, and does indeed intensify as we move further into November..... Watch this space... 

[Iceaxecrampon]

24 minutes ago, Badgers01 said:

Surely that would suggest heavy heavy rain somewhere with such a temp differential- maybe that will be the headline grabber !?

Possibly - like you say headline grabber one to watch.

Heres the predicted rainfall from albeit earlier - passes the same SNE track.

06z coming out now.

Edited October 22, 2019 by Iceaxecrampon

[weirpig]

Forgetting about the possibility of snow on some mountain tops   the 6z  still going with copious amounts of rainfall as we approach the weekend.

[CheesepuffScott]

The stark temperature contrast remains on 6z, along with that heavy rain, and for few sleet/snow...

[MR EXTREMES]

pretty chilly -4 uppers keep an eye though at the blocking will it wont it moment coming up.

no complaining at -4 uppers in october though.

 

[Iceaxecrampon]

2 minutes ago, CheesepuffScott said:

The stark temperature contrast remains on 6z, along with that heavy rain, and for few sleet/snow...

06z is definate upgrade thats a decent covering at 1500ft ASL usual suspects Pennines Cumbria N Wales

[northwestsnow]

Looks like 6z is going down the unsettled route mid term.

The only thing GFS is consistent at is inconsistency!

 

[weirpig]

6z  making much more of that low in the Atlantic  pumping much warmer air into the uk by early next week   compared to the 0z     still very uncertain in the early to medium term  

[northwestsnow]

1 minute ago, weirpig said:

6z  making much more of that low in the Atlantic  pumping much warmer air into the uk by early next week   compared to the 0z     still very uncertain in the early to medium term  

Its awful TBH..

Next!

If anything it has the potential to bring flooding back onto the menu mon/tues, heavy rain for much of the country!

Edited October 22, 2019 by northwestsnow

[weirpig]

7 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

Its awful TBH..

Next!

If anything it has the potential to bring flooding back onto the menu mon/tues, heavy rain for much of the country!

Indeed  quite alot of rainfall in low res  on this run    then as we pick up a southerly feed  we could possibly hit close to 20c  later .  I have a feeling this may be on the warm and wet side of the ensembles    we shall see 

[MattStoke]

23 minutes ago, CheesepuffScott said:

The stark temperature contrast remains on 6z, along with that heavy rain, and for few sleet/snow...

A recurring theme throughout the summer and Autumn so far. Frontal systems bringing copious amounts of rainfall to the central swathe of the UK. No doubt that pattern will change as soon as we're into the winter months and the systems that would have brought snow in those cold months will finally bugger off.

[SMU]

I wouldnt worry about the GFS AM run - the 06z is always bin fodder - its moved the high pressure about 1000 Miles SE at 168...

[MR EXTREMES]

euro slug is back zonal pattern really wants to roll in.

hmmmmm few days on might be better.

gfs ramps up the vortex.

if the ecm gem gefs backs away from blocking it wouldn't be the first time.

[Iceaxecrampon]

4 minutes ago, shaky said:

Oh my days more of the same rubbish from gfs !!southerly winds back again at 144 hours and more mild muck!!just when i thought we turned a corner from this boredom!!

Yes - default mode.

+144 is ages off though lets see how Friday fairs (or fizzles)

[Man With Beard]

Getting close to a cold pattern for the beginning of November now:

With positive height anomalies likely to be to our NW, some kind of Nly flow looks possible at least at times.

Cluster 1 looks a kind of no-man's land with the trough too far west, but a trigger low could easily bring a northerly blast in this set-up

Cluster 2 looks the coldest with the ridge slightly west of us, but primarily dry at this stage

Cluster 3 is a different set-up and could lead to a NW/SE split, with westerly fronts threatening the NW but the SE being in continental air - a slight lottery as to how cold this air would be (and, judging by the current situation, air to the east could still be quite mild) - beyond T300, anomalies become weaker to the NE so unlikely to hold continental air for long.

[ItNeverSnowsInWindsor]

The Gfs 6z run is ok until Diwali before it goes bang

[mountain shadow]

6 minutes ago, prolongedSnowLover said:

The Gfs 6z run is ok until Diwali before it goes bang

Even at Day 5 there is an upper air spread of between +14 and -4 degrees. 

[mountain shadow]

52 minutes ago, Man With Beard said:

Getting close to a cold pattern for the beginning of November now:

With positive height anomalies likely to be to our NW, some kind of Nly flow looks possible at least at times.

Cluster 1 looks a kind of no-man's land with the trough too far west, but a trigger low could easily bring a northerly blast in this set-up

Cluster 2 looks the coldest with the ridge slightly west of us, but primarily dry at this stage

Cluster 3 is a different set-up and could lead to a NW/SE split, with westerly fronts threatening the NW but the SE being in continental air - a slight lottery as to how cold this air would be (and, judging by the current situation, air to the east could still be quite mild) - beyond T300, anomalies become weaker to the NE so unlikely to hold continental air for long.

The latest 6z GFS doesn't appear to fit into any of those clusters, so hopefully the usual GFS 6z garbage and not the start of a trend away from heights to the North.

[MATTWOLVES 3]

I think to much was made of that 6z op run!! The ensembles look nae bad, if anything the mean is a tad lower than the 0z.And dare I say it, some runs even approaching the big bad - 10c mark! It's trends we are looking for folks.... And me likes the trends! 

[tight isobar]

6 minutes ago, Mattwolves said:

I think to much was made of that 6z op run!! The ensembles look nae bad, if anything the mean is a tad lower than the 0z.And dare I say it, some runs even approaching the big bad - 10c mark! It's trends we are looking for folks.... And me likes the trends! 

Certainly..

These are the sort of ens...we should be looking for...in both style...And trend-when looking for  a transfer to cold/colder...

And the trend is fitting!!!

 

And as mentioned..

The 6z gfs -raw-..

Looks a classic off the path suite!!...as reflected in its ensembles

Edited October 22, 2019 by tight isobar