Jump to content
Snow?
Local
Radar
Cold?
IGNORED

Model Output Discussion - early October


Paul
Message added by Paul

Want to chat about the upcoming winter?
Please head to the winter speculation and chat thread.

Recommended Posts

Posted
  • Location: Hoyland,barnsley,south yorkshire(134m asl)
  • Weather Preferences: severe storms,snow wind and ice
  • Location: Hoyland,barnsley,south yorkshire(134m asl)

The trough is further at 102 on the 12z gfs,how many more corrections south is this going to be,snow for  the Pennines and N Wales.

gfs-2-102.thumb.png.14aa85d90b0a11d7e296339e4146cbc0.png

 

  • Like 4
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Gillingham, Kent
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, Thunderstorms,
  • Location: Gillingham, Kent
Just now, Allseasons-si said:

The trough is further at 102 on the 12z gfs,how many more corrections south is this going to be,snow for  the Pennines and N Wales.

gfs-2-102.thumb.png.14aa85d90b0a11d7e296339e4146cbc0.png

 

Another 200-300 miles south would be nice..

  • Like 2
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: leicester
  • Location: leicester

Latest gfs at 96 hours pushes the colder air further south!!had a feeling that would happen as i mentioned in my earlier post!!lets see where the rest of the run takes us!!

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunder, snow, heat, sunshine...
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.

I might even see my first driving sleety-rain of the season, if this were to come-off?:yahoo::oldgrin:

h500slp.png   h850t850eu.png

  • Like 4
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Wildwood, Stafford 104m asl
  • Weather Preferences: obviously snow!
  • Location: Wildwood, Stafford 104m asl

 

17 minutes ago, shaky said:

Latest gfs at 96 hours pushes the colder air further south!!had a feeling that would happen as i mentioned in my earlier post!!lets see where the rest of the run takes us!!

Aye, GFS probably end up correct 'sigh', where as UKMO looks wrong, still has the 'good' weather here, GFS 5 degrees massive washout, UKMO 15 degrees and dry, I'm team UKMO but it will be wrong

UW96-21.GIF?21-18UW120-21.GIF?21-18

Edited by I remember Atlantic 252
  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: leicester
  • Location: leicester
6 minutes ago, I remember Atlantic 252 said:

 

Aye, GFS probably end up correct 'sigh', where as UKMO looks wrong, still has the 'good' weather here, GFS 5 degrees massive washout, UKMO 15 degrees and dry, I'm team UKMO but it will be wrong

UW96-21.GIF?21-18UW120-21.GIF?21-18

Yeh ukmo looks wrong to me considering the colder trend today but you just never know!!ukmo has been correct before when all other models have gone against it!

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Hoyland,barnsley,south yorkshire(134m asl)
  • Weather Preferences: severe storms,snow wind and ice
  • Location: Hoyland,barnsley,south yorkshire(134m asl)

The gfs at 180

gfsnh-0-180.thumb.png.84c4e44a122b8e7a9c4e1bba26aad532.pnggfsnh-1-180.thumb.png.26ba77d9ff78af7a5d5264aefac0462d.png

just re-iterating what i said last night about watching the back door!,the models as they stand are are today re-curving that cold pool more SW than south on previous runs.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Wildwood, Stafford 104m asl
  • Weather Preferences: obviously snow!
  • Location: Wildwood, Stafford 104m asl
1 minute ago, shaky said:

Yeh ukmo looks wrong to me considering the colder trend today but you just never know!!ukmo has been correct before when all other models have gone against it!

see what EC comes up with, suppose it will move towards GFS, and a full agreement for GFS by tomorrows 12Z's, looking at serious rain for Friday Manchester to say Bristol area

  • Like 2
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Hoyland,barnsley,south yorkshire(134m asl)
  • Weather Preferences: severe storms,snow wind and ice
  • Location: Hoyland,barnsley,south yorkshire(134m asl)

Here is a comparison for 180hrs 12z today v's 204hrs 12z yesterday.

gfsnh-0-180.thumb.png.4253609ed22c03eadf6dc644a4de3a1f.pnggfsnh-0-204.thumb.png.6b7d617f286218bd8d7f654a389c986e.png

i will be inspecting this scenario in future runs.

 

  • Like 2
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Mid-Lincolnshire 10m asl
  • Weather Preferences: Extremes, Snow, Winter, Summer storms after a 'heatwave'
  • Location: Mid-Lincolnshire 10m asl
2 minutes ago, Allseasons-si said:

Here is a comparison for 180hrs 12z today v's 204hrs 12z yesterday.

gfsnh-0-180.thumb.png.4253609ed22c03eadf6dc644a4de3a1f.pnggfsnh-0-204.thumb.png.6b7d617f286218bd8d7f654a389c986e.png

i will be inspecting this scenario in future runs.

 

Seems like the usual GFS bias of blowing up the lows

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

42 minutes ago, Allseasons-si said:

The trough is further at 102 on the 12z gfs,how many more corrections south is this going to be,snow for  the Pennines and N Wales.

gfs-2-102.thumb.png.14aa85d90b0a11d7e296339e4146cbc0.png

 

Humm 

maybe a little run out to Buxton fri night!

  • Like 2
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: leicester
  • Location: leicester
11 minutes ago, I remember Atlantic 252 said:

see what EC comes up with, suppose it will move towards GFS, and a full agreement for GFS by tomorrows 12Z's, looking at serious rain for Friday Manchester to say Bristol area

Wouldnt be too sure mate!!gfs could easily go back to what ukmo is showing at the moment!!i have a hunch ecm will look more like ukmo later lets see!!

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Wildwood, Stafford 104m asl
  • Weather Preferences: obviously snow!
  • Location: Wildwood, Stafford 104m asl
1 minute ago, shaky said:

Wouldnt be too sure mate!!gfs could easily go back to what ukmo is showing at the moment!!i have a hunch ecm will look more like ukmo later lets see!!

Aye, time of year dominates my preferences, this time of the year, I'd like UKMO correct, but 2 months from now, would want GFS correct

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Windsor
  • Weather Preferences: Snow and cold
  • Location: Windsor
47 minutes ago, I remember Atlantic 252 said:

Aye, time of year dominates my preferences, this time of the year, I'd like UKMO correct, but 2 months from now, would want GFS correct

It can easily snow in the Pennines in October given the right uppers. I remember seeing a white Diwali one year in the 90s at just 175m asl.

On Friday there’s a great chance of snowfall in the Pennines and hope it comes off!

 

Edited by prolongedSnowLover
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Wildwood, Stafford 104m asl
  • Weather Preferences: obviously snow!
  • Location: Wildwood, Stafford 104m asl
9 minutes ago, prolongedSnowLover said:

It can easily snow in the Pennines in October given the right uppers. I remember seeing a white Diwali one year in the 90 at just 175m asl.

On Friday there’s a great chance of snowfall in the Pennines and hope it comes off!

 

definitely, and Buxton/Leek area

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Derbyshire Peak District South Pennines Middleton & Smerrill Tops 305m (1001ft) asl.
  • Location: Derbyshire Peak District South Pennines Middleton & Smerrill Tops 305m (1001ft) asl.

Gales for some coastal areas and possibly inland on Friday...

2095426788_viewimage(60).thumb.png.9ff8d446c3af22308fca86c8f7e4951e.png

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: leicester
  • Location: leicester
9 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

Now all of a sudden, there is a distinct split in the GEFS as early as a few days away.

image.thumb.png.18c71dca878fc9fe49a2d7a92a2d7de5.png

And all of a sudden that batch of +5s and +10s are gettin smaller and smaller by the run!!!yesterday there was massive agreement on milder 850s but today all has changed at just 4 or 5 days out!!!

  • Like 4
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Gillingham, Kent
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, Thunderstorms,
  • Location: Gillingham, Kent
3 minutes ago, tight isobar said:

Yes..

The ens belly dropping..

As they not the pressure rises... And all in the right places..

 

And the mean looking to take more and more members as we evolve..

As supports get further to grips....with the very likely pattern changes!!!!..

 

 

Fun n' games season..."OPEN"!!!!!

MT8_London_ens (11).png

They should hire you for Brexit negotiations! 

It'll be interesting to see where the ECM sits this evening, despite the GFS + ensembles trending more towards the colder solutions we have to remember that the newly updated GFS has a fairly significant cold bias problem that still hasn't been fixed.

  • Like 4
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Buckinghamshire
  • Location: Buckinghamshire

Quite a wet Wednesday night Thursday period for central southern parts of England as a weather front pushes up from France perhaps more persistent rain for Western Scotland but elsewhere showers..

12_57_preciptype.thumb.png.3abf006d156aad1f0881e567812c5c40.png

Gfs like others have pointed out has trended the deep low on Friday further south resulting in southern England receiving gales, very heavy rainfall for the Midlands and Wales with *mainly* but not exclusively hill snow for parts of North Wales and northern England.. 

GFS

12_102_preciptype.thumb.png.88a2a2c03719a45cbe4b138175108e25.png

12_102_windvector_gust.thumb.png.1631e83c1617264fd70184dfe3d0ed61.png

but very mild for the south much colder further north if this comes off will not be suprised to see the winds with this system perhaps being an even bigger problem with such a stark temperature contrast fueling it..

Zoomed out view.. 

EUROPE_PRMSL_RAIN_102.thumb.jpg.9b745579b1c0e4caa4b714e5f40506c1.jpg

EUROPE_PRMSL_2MWIND_102.thumb.jpg.e001b85859d0843325d8c86fab37f94d.jpg

But the earlier ECM and GEM are agreeing on a more northerly track for the frontal system developing it to the north of Scotland keeping hill snow rain and very strong winds mostly at bay and much milder too.. 

Gem.. 

EUROPE_PRMSL_144.thumb.jpg.fdd628d107d3af69ba429b839b2afd21.jpg

EUROPE_PRMSL_RAIN_144.thumb.jpg.8eee8d4a97304868ba30e0a4aeecded2.jpg

with much milder conditions although with such a big split it's difficult to say which scenario will happen but a blend of the two scenarios is most likely I think.. gfs also showing wintry showers for the north and West of Scotland during Friday

12_87_preciptype.thumb.png.2fadbce4370fe8abd9314a62777f382c.png

More changes are likely in the coming days given the wide spread of outcomes. Really is making for interesting model watching that's for sure. :oldgood:

Edited by jordan smith
  • Like 5
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: uxbridge middlesex(- also Bampton oxfordshire
  • Weather Preferences: blizzard conditions. ice days
  • Location: uxbridge middlesex(- also Bampton oxfordshire
4 minutes ago, Met4Cast said:

They should hire you for Brexit negotiations! 

It'll be interesting to see where the ECM sits this evening, despite the GFS + ensembles trending more towards the colder solutions we have to remember that the newly updated GFS has a fairly significant cold bias problem that still hasn't been fixed.

The gfs "is always" ..

Of issue at this point!!!..

With the new data impossed...let's see how it performs...on this very occasion..

And as per...

Of course.. the battle between ec/gfs. .always a fascinating one....

Edited by tight isobar
  • Like 2
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Gillingham, Kent
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, Thunderstorms,
  • Location: Gillingham, Kent
3 minutes ago, tight isobar said:

The gfs "is always" ..

Of issue at this point!!!..

With the new data impossed...let's see how it performs...on this very occasion..

And as per...

Of course.. the battle between ec/gfs. .always a fascinating one....

I agree re: gfs is "always", at this stage that's the only thing we know to be true when it comes to these

global models in which we frequent..

As per your comment, always a fascinating time to see models in

the ring against one another

Edited by Met4Cast
  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Guest
This topic is now closed to further replies.
  • UK Storm and Severe Convective Forecast

    UK Severe Convective & Storm Forecast - Issued 2024-03-28 09:16:06 Valid: 28/03/2024 0800 - 29/03/2024 0600 SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH - THURS 28 MARCH 2024 Click here for the full forecast

    Nick F
    Nick F
    Latest weather updates from Netweather

    More rain on the way: Storm Nelson brings gales Thursday, but rain and wind easing for Easter

    Spells of rain or showers with sunshine in between affecting most areas today, snow over northern hills. Storm Nelson arrives tomorrow, bringing gales to southern coasts and windy elsewhere with further showers. Showers and wind easing somewhat into the Easter Weekend. Read the full update here

    Netweather forecasts
    Netweather forecasts
    Latest weather updates from Netweather

    UK Storm and Severe Convective Forecast

    UK Severe Convective & Storm Forecast - Issued 2024-03-27 09:35:27 Valid: 27/03/2024 0900 - 28/03/2024 0600 THUNDERSTORM WATCH - WEDS 27 MARCH 2024 Click here for the full forecast

    Nick F
    Nick F
    Latest weather updates from Netweather
×
×
  • Create New...