Model Output Discussion - early October

[weirpig]

Way out in Fi  (although very nice to look at )   an easterly with frigid uppers making there way towards the country   

[feb1991blizzard]

3 minutes ago, weirpig said:

Way out in Fi  (although very nice to look at )   an easterly with frigid uppers making there way towards the country   

 

Yes, -6c in with -8c touching Scotland.

Edited October 21, 2019 by feb1991blizzard

[MattStoke]

3 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

Yes, -6c in with -8c touching Scotland.

-8'C uppers into the South East.

Would make for a nice and 'seasonal' Bon Fire night.

[Met4Cast]

How's this for an anomaly chart!

GFS mean isn't anything to turn your nose up at, either

If this pattern were to verify it'd be a step in the right direction to getting the PV nice and disrupted for December..

[shaky]

Gfs slowly coming around ecms way of thinking!!could see more upgrades to the cold later and also maybe even a further push south of the cold air at the weekend!!

[Methuselah]

Looks like the 06Z Operational has flipped to the cold end of the ensembles...? Outlier alert!

   

   

Edited October 21, 2019 by Ed Stone

[Seasonality]

Winter, please give autumn a go first.

[feb1991blizzard]

HUMBER STREAMER ALERT!

[ItNeverSnowsInWindsor]

Has anyone got the ECM ensembles for the 0z run pls ?

[feb1991blizzard]

yes @MattStoke

[Frosty.]

6 minutes ago, prolongedSnowLover said:

Has anyone got the ECM ensembles for the 0z run pls ?

There's strong support for a benign spell of pleasant high pressure with overnight mist / fog.

[ItNeverSnowsInWindsor]

5 minutes ago, JON SNOW said:

There's strong support for a benign spell of pleasant high pressure with overnight mist / fog.

Where does the Op sit in the ensembles spread ?

[feb1991blizzard]

1 minute ago, prolongedSnowLover said:

Where does the Op sit in the ensembles spread ?

There!

[SLEETY]

It would be nice if the backend of the Operational runs from the models at the moment  were the sign of things to come for the Winter ahead,just for a change.If you like cold winters of course!

We know what seems to happen once Winter happens,perhaps this year will buck the trend,and we are looking towards a blocked and cold winter with HLB taking control for the season!

Edited October 21, 2019 by SLEETY

[tight isobar]

Howdy!!=

The transient period is well underway....

 

And the ens..and graphics are of note.

 

Especially the polar/and flow process!..

Some stark eye catching graphics/synoptics as we jog...the begin to run into winter...

The alignment that the models are getting a 'pointer' on fill one with great hope.

 

With almost perfect atmospheric evolutionary placings as we get going!!.

 

And with that eye catching developing cold lake of north-eastern pooling perhaps taking a hold just as the north western heat transfer-starts track.....

 

An-early start to the season...with something of note.... Very much gaining!!!=

Keep watching!!!!!

[Methuselah]

As expected (and with apologies to the 'Hyperbolically Challenged' among us!) the 06Z Operational has fallen off the wagon again!

   

   

The last thing we need, is another winter of letdowns like last year...Two in a row would be simply too much to bear!

[Jordan S]

Latest run from the gfs is certainly a very cold one for the start of November with hard overnight frosts and unusually low daytime maxima but this is the extended range and charts like this churn out most years at the very end of a run so pinch of salt needed but very interesting to look at to say the least.

 

Edited October 21, 2019 by jordan smith

[MATTWOLVES 3]

Has Jordan just pointed out above, the 6z looks quite interesting! There are some juicy ensembles that either bring some decent cold shots, or show some very cold air, very close to our vicinity! Is it to early to be gerrin excited.... Surely not a 2010 repeat!! Who knows, we just can't rule anything out in the current climate... Just take a look at some of the snow events already hitting parts of the states!! Got a feeling this one could be a decent one..... Surely to god much better than last year's one off snow event in the South. Bring it on weather gods, we await some serious cold this year. 

[feb1991blizzard]

Below average at the end.

[IDO]

Looks like the first interest coming in the next seven days with the ex-cyclone ramping the jet and forcing wave activity, noticeably a transient Pacific ridge:

So in a 5-day period we move from a relatively benign pattern to something more promising for mid to high latitude ridges/blocks.

Waiting for upstream to resolve to see where the Atlantic/W.Europe cold is driven south.

Looks like just a short-sharp shock from the mesoscale developments rather than any long-term pattern change (ATM). Just down to luck as to what the UK gets, but with the relative quietness of the Atlantic zone (per se recently), if we do get a block it could hang around, as it slowly decays within the flow.

Notes from this new GFS op: it does seem to want to mirror the ECM as to the promise of cold in FI so one to be wary of as the season progresses.

[MattStoke]

44 minutes ago, Ed Stone said:

As expected (and with apologies to the 'Hyperbolically Challenged' among us!) the 06Z Operational has fallen off the wagon again!

   

   

The last thing we need, is another winter of letdowns like last year...Two in a row would be simply too much to bear!

2 in a row? Every winter is a letdown compared to what the models show in ‘FI’

Edited October 21, 2019 by MattStoke

[summer blizzard]

A properly cold airmass even if i suspect snow prospects may not be high. Great charts to see.

[Kirkcaldy Weather]

On 15/10/2019 at 18:26, Kirkcaldy Weather said:

MJO did crossover back into phase 8 briefly and has now moved back into phase 1, very fascinating behaviour with either phase 8 or 1 since 15th September so now a whole month and looking like at least a bit longer on top of that http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/mjo/graphics/rmm.74toRealtime.txt so something similar to the latest GFS run may not be too far off the mark with the general idea of higher pressure toward Greenland (possibly still some drier weather over UK during next week) then possibly the higher pressure moving from Greenland toward Scandi like the GFS hints at  https://docs.wixstatic.com/ugd/31d9e0_3c062d439cb841d2eea3ea174256642b.pdf 

Certainly shaping up to be an interesting few weeks.

 

MJO has now moved into phase 2 with the outlook currently taking it into COD within the next week or so although this could change but I will keep monitoring. So we have had phase 8 https://docs.wixstatic.com/ugd/31d9e0_3c062d439cb841d2eea3ea174256642b.pdf   latest GFS run   then we have briefly had phase 1   so I am on the lookout for higher pressure to start developing toward Scandi and given current conditions there (snow and temperatures below -20 C in some places, see my posts in the snow and ice thread) IF we could get an easterly flow some wintry weather wouldn't be out of the question (possibly briefly) then phase 2 suggests a Russian high could develop https://docs.wixstatic.com/ugd/31d9e0_32594828e48d18aa94d6c4b8b63b1f6e.pdf   with lower pressure starting to affect the UK.

The interesting weather pattern outlook continues.

[That ECM]

It’s good to be back and hunting

[Allseasons-Si]

The 12z ICON ends pretty similar to the 00z ironically 

12z 174 compared to 00z 180 maybe just a bit more curvature SW to the colder temps coming out of Scandinavia.

 

 

 

Edited October 21, 2019 by Allseasons-si