Model Output Discussion - early October

[Sweatyman]

1 hour ago, I remember Atlantic 252 said:

Indian Summer?

No thanks

[NeilN]

2 hours ago, I remember Atlantic 252 said:

Indian Summer?

No thank you!! Come back at the end of March, then we'll talk heat  

[Allseasons-Si]

Ok,a balanced post from me,i would take an Indian summer like scenario as i am fed up of all the rain that we have had,if you look at the NH profiles this hp cell would do some damage to the fledgling pv,the pattern still looks amplified to me even out to day ten

the gefs/ecm means

but what goes up must come down around the back door,i am not saying that this will happen but one to watch because with an amplified situation like this,anything could happen,it's a very meridian pattern with slow motion hence the uncertainty i mentioned earlier 

tonight's cpc outlook suggest's a fine spell of weather for the BI.good,but that is some hp cell/block and i see no Atlantic influence from these charts and the NAO/AO show this 

ok we are still in October and we would like to usher things along to winter but patience is always granted

we have a long way to go yet so hold on there my fellow coldies

a final note is that i think we are in a better situation than previous years with more of a less solar influence,-qbo trending E though i think later on in the winter,EN SO state remains neutral,SAI(snow advance index) is slightly better this year and the OFI(October fog index),well we have 11 days for some fog to form,is that too much to ask,it has been ages since i have seen some fog

any acronyms i have missed

Edited October 20, 2019 by Allseasons-si

[shaky]

Hmmm interesting looks like that trough to the north is pushing further south between 120 and 144 hours in the last 2 gfs runs!!can that continue!!i aint complaining it will defo feel cooler!!

[Daniel*]

Pub run had too many beers? Only at day 5 mind, significant snow maker for Scottish border zips a low NE engaging in some quite cold air slither of -6C 850hPa in central belt with nightfall and light winds on north flank of low, probably some decent snow for hills, but threat there for something more widespread/disruptive?

[Cloud 10]

Yes,plenty of drama to end the week according to the 18z.

 

[Jordan S]

Focusing on the longer term for a moment gfs definitely having a more unsettled wetter scenario compared with the ECM but the ECM has trended slightly less settled by the end of next week but still brings a pretty warm (for the time of year) southerly wind.. 

Ecm.. 

In contrast to the gfs that spins up a nasty low for Friday bringing severe gales to the south with much colder air to the north for Scotland mabye some hill snow?

then a trailing weather front linked to another low pressure system starts to pep up and very slowly move across England giving a two day deluge end of next weekend into the following week made possible from the high pressure cell to the north effectively slowing its progress down and a big temperature contrast between Scotland and England keeping the frontal system active throughout..

GFS.. 

Any further than this the output is quite different with every run interesting that this very wet scenario has been progged by the gfs for a couple days now.. Ofcourse a more settled and less wet scenario is possible too and next weekend may indeed be mostly dry but more runs needed and no point in going into detail after Wednesday for now. 

Edited October 20, 2019 by jordan smith

[SMU]

Morning

Something for everyone today in the models-
The initial pulse of cold from the GH doesnt really reach the UK, on top of that a brief 2-3 day window for something warm !!

However the trend back to cold continues this morning post day 7-8 especially GEM ICON

ICON particularly builds a huge -AO by day 8/9

[Frosty.]

The GEFS 0z mean is advertising a generally benign and potentially very mild outlook with air sourced from southern europe with S'ly / SE'ly winds.

Edited October 21, 2019 by JON SNOW

[SLEETY]

Ecm lturning cold too,after a couple of nice warm days at the end of the week.Looks like the high is going to retrogress at the end  of the run.

 

And it does at the end.Sp cold start to November looking likely now.

Edited October 21, 2019 by SLEETY

[ICE COLD]

59 minutes ago, Steve Murr said:

Morning

Something for everyone today in the models-
The initial pulse of cold from the GH doesnt really reach the UK, on top of that a brief 2-3 day window for something warm !!

However the trend back to cold continues this morning post day 7-8 especially GEM ICON

ICON particularly builds a huge -AO by day 8/9

Check out the ECM Steve nice cold feed establishing. Off to Greenland we go . 

[knocker]

Very warm airmass over Europe that cools down as a new trough drops into the western Atlantic initiating a rapid amplification of the Atlantic subtropical high coupled with strong ridging in the north east Pacific That's this morning's theory with he ecm

Edited October 21, 2019 by knocker

[knocker]

The EPS also showing strong ridging in the north east Pacific and a cold trough down the western US with knock on effects downstream asanother upper trough tracks into the Atlantic This promotes the subtropical high in the Atlantic as the pattern adjusts east

 

Edited October 21, 2019 by knocker

[Iceaxecrampon]

00z

Where did this come from? 

Friday....!

 

[CheesepuffScott]

That’s quite a stark temperature contrast for Friday night / Saturday morn.

A very mild night for much of England and Wales in the mid teens, but close to freezing in N. Eng, Scotland and Ireland.

[Methuselah]

There's plenty of spread, scatter (and, thus, considerable implicit uncertainty!) within today's GEFS 00Z ensembles:

   

   

The Operational is in a world of its own!

[SMU]

06Z ICON more aggressive with the cold Fri night- 

Some wintry potential beginning to align for the end of the week-

S

[weirpig]

4 minutes ago, Steve Murr said:

06Z ICON more aggressive with the cold Fri night- 

Some wintry potential beginning to align for the end of the week-

S

That certainly is quite a change at such a small lead time.  comparison with 0z run 

[northwestsnow]

Big question for me this morning, can we get a block to shut off the Atlantic and retrogress northwards?

EC is keen, GFS not so much...

A nice block to the North of the UK should open the door to ridding us of the Euro high and potentially cold dry seasonal weather early Nov.

[booferking]

18 minutes ago, Steve Murr said:

06Z ICON more aggressive with the cold Fri night- 

Some wintry potential beginning to align for the end of the week-

S

First snow watch for the winter dialling in.

[Met4Cast]

The ECM still isn't keen on much snow potential away from Scotland on Friday

The GFS however remains consistent with the 06z bringing a more wider risk, particularly for Ireland

[MattStoke]

Just now, booferking said:

First snow watch for the winter dialling in.

Looks like hills only on the higher resolution charts. Cold rain elsewhere.

[booferking]

1 minute ago, MattStoke said:

Looks like hills only on the higher resolution charts. Cold rain elsewhere.

Good to see the potential so early in the season otherwise.

[SMU]

remember the High res charts may well update to the colder undercut scenario in the 12s which will mean the rain / snow mix may be more widespread !

06z snow cover

[Met4Cast]

RIP vortex on the 6z GFS