Model Output Discussion - early October

[Allseasons-Si]

I am liking this run from the gfs 18z,cold air already entrenched before the low out west swings in,and look at that GH pressure,it's a monster at 1050mb.

i know it's in fl but this could be a snow maker for northern England northwards

just for fun.

 

Edited October 19, 2019 by Allseasons-si

[feb1991blizzard]

Mean on the 12z GEFS v 18z - huge change with much more support for the Greenland block solution.

 

[Allseasons-Si]

The 18z control height anomaly over Greenland is giving us a wink and a smile,whilst it brings us an easterly

some nice cold pooling filtering west over Scandi.

 

Edited October 20, 2019 by Allseasons-si

[Frosty.]

Looking at the Gfs 0z operational it's a mild / very mild and rather unsettled end to october and early november...very mild halloween with sw'ly zephyrs!!! ...bit different to yesterday's 0z!

Edited October 20, 2019 by JON SNOW

[Frosty.]

The Ecm 0z operational brings an Indian summer with 564 dam clipping the SE!!

Edited October 20, 2019 by JON SNOW

[Methuselah]

Today's 00Z Operational seems to have moved away from some of the extreme solutions it was indicating, yesterday:

   

And, have the ensembles lost some of their scatter?

   

   

As usual, it's baby steps...More runs needed!

 

 

[Jordan S]

Today looks mostly dry in much of the UK but some showers can't be ruled out bit of uncertainty tonight into tomorrow as we see some potentially quite heavy rain clip the south east of England and its likely the far south east will be pretty wet tomorrow with more than 10mm in a few places.. How far northwest this gets is uncertain and hirlam certainly had a very wet Monday for many parts of England with 30+mm but its stepped back from that extreme solution Icon showing most of it to stay offshore indeed most of it may stay in the channel and France but I think it will be down to now casting always a degree of uncertainty with rain coming from the south or southeast. 

Dwd icon.. 

Hirlam.. 

Yesterday evenings output.. 

whatever happens tomorrow is looking like another dry day for most other parts of the UK with some sunshine though quite a lot of cloud for Wales and central England at times. Tuesday looking drier for the southeast and indeed most other parts too except some rain in the far north of Scotland and that heralds at least a temporary unsettled spell there. 

[shaky]

another boring 06z gfs!!trough anchored out west and mild southerlies for the uk!!!really is depressing!!its like the cold northerlies hit scotland and then south of scotland just says nope your not pushing through just yet its far too early in the season lol!!

[Methuselah]

So, here we are again: the GFS 06Z Operational has reverted to its earlier idea, of possibly widespread snowfall, for areas north of, say, the Central Belt?

   

It'll be interesting, to say the least, to see whether ensemble-scatter has increased again?

Not that it'd last long, anywho!

   

Edited October 20, 2019 by Ed Stone

[Methuselah]

Considering that Tuesday's my day-on-the-farm, I'd certainly take this one: no wind and no rain -- practically perfect in every way for outdoor working...?

   

Shame it won't happen, though!

[Methuselah]

59 minutes ago, Ed Stone said:

Considering that Tuesday's my day-on-the-farm, I'd certainly take this one: no wind and no rain -- practically perfect in every way for outdoor working...?

   

Shame it won't happen, though!

It seems as if the Scottish cold snap (with accompanied risk of snowfall) has more ensemble support than do the, much later, warm uppers in Southern England?

Aberdeen:   

London:       

                    

So, given all the scatter, nothing is anywhere near 'nailed on'?

Edited October 20, 2019 by Ed Stone

[Frosty.]

Gazing into the GEFS 6z crystal ball, early November does show some wintry potential for most of the uk..possibly a cold bonfire night!...there could be some cold weather across the far north for a time towards the end of the week ahead too..

Edited October 20, 2019 by JON SNOW

[Mike Poole]

In my post a couple of days ago, the models at T144 (then Thursday) were progging a Greenland high.  So now it is two days hence.  So a look at the 12z runs with that in mind, focussing not on weather for the UK (which actually mostly looks warm  and reasonably settled) but on Greenland, here's the ICON, UKMO and GFS, GEM at T144, now Saturday:

This feature looks like becoming established. Where we go from there, well who knows at this stage, but like I have said in recent posts, regardless of what the seasonal models are saying, there is much interest in this evolution...

Edited October 20, 2019 by Mike Poole
To add GEM chart

[MATTWOLVES 3]

Not so sure about a cold bonfire night, i can guarantee you a lot of lightening strikes and thunderous bangs though!! The GFS control looked pretty peachy again... Even threatening a..... Wait for it..... Estly... Some lovely heights over Greenland again also being flagged up by some ensembles!! Let's hope this trend not only continues but strengthens during our run up to Xmas. 

[Iceaxecrampon]

12z GFS

The change of the seasons - next weekend.

Decent ppn chill on the tops to an Indian Summer.

Whats not to like?

 

 

Edited October 20, 2019 by Iceaxecrampon

[Methuselah]

GFS 12Z all looks a bit bog-standard to me, most of the extremes having been smoothed out?

   

[Frosty.]

There's some really insane temperature contrasts between north and south from the GEFS 12z later in the week, anything from 0c with frosts, ice & snow in parts of scotland to a balmy 18 or 19c across southern england..bizarre.

[ICE COLD]

There is a lot of spread now appearing on the GEFS again . Also the rain spikes increasing again . There are some colder runs appearing again as well . 
 

Also is this some warming up the top ? 

[Methuselah]

The scatter is getting worse than ever, in the GEFS 12Zs...?

   

   

And, as pointed-out above, there are rainspikes aplenty!

[feb1991blizzard]

1 minute ago, Ed Stone said:

The scatter is getting worse than ever, in the GEFS 12Zs...?

And, as pointed-out above, there are rainspikes aplenty!

It will probably end up boring - somewhere in between, nothingness as usual.

[northwestsnow]

28 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

It will probably end up boring - somewhere in between, nothingness as usual.

Which is precisely why i place about 5% probabilty of charts beyond 144 hours..

Even less on colder outcomes.

EC12Z looks mainly dry again this evening but there looks a fine line in the 120-144 timeframe between cool and dry or wet and mild.

[I remember Atlantic 252]

Indian Summer?

[Allseasons-Si]

38 minutes ago, Ed Stone said:

The scatter is getting worse than ever, in the GEFS 12Zs...?

   

   

And, as pointed-out above, there are rainspikes aplenty!

Hi Pete

i think the word we are looking for is uncertainty 

the ecm however gives us a tame northeaster at day ten...yuk

but at least the blocking is to our north

all subject to change of cause regarding the uncertainty

 

 

[ICE COLD]

4 minutes ago, I remember Atlantic 252 said:

Indian Summer?

Briefly and then back to cool and probably wet . I like the overall northern hemisphere view tho , the pv not looking healthy. 

[NeilN]

I think seasonal describes the most recent model output post. As long as Northern Blocking stablises and develops into something epic for winter, we're laughing.