Model Output Discussion - early October

[Froze were the Days]

Nobody has mentioned the ECM, I wonder why?...I have not followed the GFS since spring and will continue not to during this Autumn and Winter (for my own blood pressure reasons). ECM showing a massive difference from a warm 'blocky' Europe to much colder conditions to the north and north east and not surprisingly all the cold air missing the UK in the latter stages of the run.

[Frosty.]

Following what I said about the Ecm 0z operational, the mean, apart from an unsettled blip across the far n / nw later next week looks benign with pleasant surface conditions by day but as it's late october, the nights would probably be on the cool side with some mist / fog patches..no sign of anything wintry on the Ecm and now I notice the Gfs 6z operational has pretty much backed off from its semi wintry 0z outlier.

[bluearmy]

Just occurred to me that this is the first winter season we will have used the upgraded GFS .... my take thus far on the model is that it suffers much the same issues as it’s predecessors did but then again so does the ecm .....

hoping it can be a decent tool in the 6/10 day period and that it may get plenty of practice is resolving split energy scenarios ...

[I remember Atlantic 252]

Southerlies 'winning' on GFS 6Z FI?, seems to be following EC

[Methuselah]

1 minute ago, I remember Atlantic 252 said:

Southerlies 'winning' on GFS 6Z FI?, seems to be following EC

Certainly seems that way, 252...It's one of those situations in which the ensemble mean is all-but useless, IMO; there are no halfway houses...?

   

[Jordan S]

A pretty settled weekend apart from some rain for the northeast for a time a few showers today and tomorrow but a lot of sunny spells.. Sunday night into Monday daytime looking like the southeast may see some light rain push in from France how far northwest this damp weather gets is uncertain but a drizzly day on Monday for southeast England but elsewhere alot of dry weather with only an isolated shower temperatures pretty cool though 11c or 12c for the south and cooler still further north. 

GFS.. 

Arpege.. 

Not going to explain any further as output is changing a lot each run. 

[MR EXTREMES]

5 hours ago, Froze were the Days said:

Nobody has mentioned the ECM, I wonder why?...I have not followed the GFS since spring and will continue not to during this Autumn and Winter (for my own blood pressure reasons). ECM showing a massive difference from a warm 'blocky' Europe to much colder conditions to the north and north east and not surprisingly all the cold air missing the UK in the latter stages of the run.

Yes I agree looking like a monsoon season. But a very quick flip from blocking to monsoon. But it's only a projection atm. December to remember didn't start till end of November or around about. But that's some unsettled weather on the way. But very fluid patterns now. 

[MATTWOLVES 3]

Perhaps some colder Conditions spilling SE towards the end of next weekend from the 12z....still nice to see some kind of heights towards Greenland!!! Read an interesting article on the those record heights over Greenland during late spring into summer, one of the longest runs ever! Also noted was how the decrease in Arctic ice could lead to the blocking high becoming more frequent!! Perhaps some hum dinger winters over the coming years are a possibility! 

[danthetan]

I think the Ensembles will be interesting tonight with that low pressure moving up from the SW at 144 that track is no where near decided and could stay further south and with cold air lurking to the north could be one to watch.

[Methuselah]

Nice big LP system out there...Just enough to keep the cold at bay?

   

It'll give it more time in which to deepen!

[Mike Poole]

Here is the 12z view of things NH view today T144, from UKMO, GFS, ICON, GEM:

Consistent signal for heights over Greenland.  As I said last night, let's get to this point that the models are broadly in consensus with, and then see whether this blocking pattern has any legs, in terms of longevity, or toes, for that matter.

Edited October 19, 2019 by Mike Poole

[Mike Poole]

Normally if I was going to post about the GEFS, I'd cherry pick some runs that we're relevant to my argument (at least I am honest!) but today, here's the whole lot at T240:

Stepping back from the detail, two things stand out, first amplification upstream into Greenland, second, the trop vortex into Siberia or Scandi.   All of this gives support to possible cold winter synoptics occurring quite early this year for some.  I still don't buy the long range models, by the way!  But they may be changing...

[knocker]

The gfs this evening has amplification upstream vis a North East Pacific ridge and an extremely strong jet exiting the north east of North America south of Greenland which isolates the high cell over Greenland and results in a lot of energy crossing the atlantic.curtailing any expansion of the European high, Ergo the trough in the eastern Atlantic is kept in play suggesting more unsettled weather but more inclined to northern regions

The detail of this still not resolved and the ext GEFS mean is still indicating a relaxation of this

Edited October 19, 2019 by knocker

[I remember Atlantic 252]

Southerlies win! on GFS 12Z great result for October even in FI, 2 months later though would want the opposite

Edited October 19, 2019 by I remember Atlantic 252

[bluearmy]

gem day 10 NH is amazing for the back end of October ....

[Decemberof2010]

Here’s the chart

 

[Methuselah]

And, here're the T384 charts from the GEF 12Z run:

   

It looks as if there's at least some support from the GEFS 12Z ensembles (Highland Scottie) for the colder air to return southward, after initially being shunted north? I wouldn't bet my house on it, though!

   

   

Lowland snow for Scotland?

[I remember Atlantic 252]

Ed, outlier often over used on here, but that bottom left one clearly is, looks like an error

Edited October 19, 2019 by I remember Atlantic 252

[knocker]

Starting at around T144 the energy distribution and the upstream and Atlantic patterns start to go the their separate ways vis the gfs and ecm

[northwestsnow]

Hoping EC is on the ball this evening.

Lots of dry weather on offer

[I remember Atlantic 252]

6 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

Hoping EC is on the ball this evening.

Lots of dry weather on offer

Yes hoping so, but some may say 3 months too late

[pinball wizard]

Interesting to see some models showing warmer air moving up from the south. Some show this moving to the far north beyond the uk. Could this help high pressure formation over scandi or greenland later down the line? 

[Dancerwithwings]

16 minutes ago, I remember Atlantic 252 said:

Yes hoping so, but some may say 3 months too late

Supposedly they say “for every fog in October a snow in winter” shame the ECM is showing HP just a few days at the end of the month.

Loving that chart though, we could certainly do with drying out for sure

[MATTWOLVES 3]

The ECM mean finally settles us down, would be a nice change from the recent rains. Can't help but having one eye on that cold blob to the NE though....come on me beauty, get in here..

Edited October 19, 2019 by Mattwolves

[knocker]

Looking pretty good for a much more settled and drier period