Model Output Discussion - early October

[Allseasons-Si]

The 18z going for it at 144 hrs

[feb1991blizzard]

Just now, Allseasons-si said:

The 18z going for it at 144 hrs

Yes, just looks like that pesky Atlantic trough is going to put pay to a proper Northerly though unfortunately.

[booferking]

Just now, feb1991blizzard said:

Yes, just looks like that pesky Atlantic trough is going to put pay to a proper Northerly though unfortunately.

But the trend is are friend tonight. 

[feb1991blizzard]

1 minute ago, booferking said:

But the trend is are friend tonight. 

Yes, could that be snow for you?

[Allseasons-Si]

2 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

Yes, just looks like that pesky Atlantic trough is going to put pay to a proper Northerly though unfortunately.

Baby steps,it's better than the 12z,just watching for height's to build in between the two.  

[booferking]

2 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

Yes, could that be snow for you?

Could get a flurry alright.

 

[feb1991blizzard]

@booferking @Allseasons-si   See that really amplified trough to the SW of Iceland and that shortwave to the SW of Svalbard, they will more than likely engage each other, if they don't and they miss each other, it will go like the ECM 240 and will deliver a potent Easterly by the end of the run, don't think it will happen but its a possibility.

[Allseasons-Si]

The key area is around western Iceland,we want higher height's to develop here,this would force the trough to the west further south or even cut under,so in future runs keep an eye on this

 

[Allseasons-Si]

5 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

@booferking @Allseasons-si   See that really amplified trough to the SW of Iceland and that shortwave to the SW of Svalbard, they will more than likely engage each other, if they don't and they miss each other, it will go like the ECM 240 and will deliver a potent Easterly by the end of the run, don't think it will happen but its a possibility.

It's just ok Feb.

in fact,it looks good.

[feb1991blizzard]

2 minutes ago, Allseasons-si said:

The key area is around western Iceland,we want higher height's to develop here,this would force the trough to the west further south or even cut under,so in future runs keep an eye on this

 

Yes, you need a bigger wedge between the two areas of troughing, although having thought it was bust 3 frames after i said it was looking good, it still could turn out to be a decent run.

[feb1991blizzard]

1 minute ago, Allseasons-si said:

It's just ok Feb.

in fact,it looks good.

Knifedge - all just for fun at this range of course, nothing ceratin past 120 hours. but better to have promising runs than not.

[feb1991blizzard]

Finishes with -6c into E anglia and -8c into Northern Scotland.

[SMU]

The models have edged South & East with the cold from the GH at around 144 with a more vertical North > south flow-

The mean now at just day 6 is a whopping 1050 MB GH & an equally awsome PV dropping into Scandi-

Round 1 of cold looks to hit the North circa -6c then the expectation is a rebuild / reinforcement of the GH from the near continent & the deep cold pushing SSW from Scandi....

S

[knocker]

The NH 500mb profile and the North Atlantic surface analysis for midnight.

Things are slowly improving and many areas will see less showers today but still a few around, mainly effecting wales and the south west. A more insistent band, associated with the occlusion, currently effecting central Scotland will move slowly south during the day to reach as far as northeast England by dusk

The showers mainly confined to northern and south west coastal areas tonight whilst elsewhere quite a chilly night with the odd mist/fog patch

By tomorrow the influence of the low will at last have disappeared as the ridge edges in from the west so a much better day all round with plenty of sunny periods once any mist/fog has cleared. Might be a few showers in the north where the northerly wind will be quite fresh. Generally quite a cool day

The ridge more or less in control on Monday so a fine day after a frosty start in places, but a shallow low is quite adjacent to the south east so some rain here

A not dissimilar day on Tuesday but the pattern that has been previously discussed is unfolding and there is now an elongated trough with a positive tilt to the west and this willbring some rain and strengthening winds to the north west late in the day

Over Tuesday night and through Wednesday developments occur along this active trough and by Wednesday there is quite a deep surface low to the north west of Scotland and this will effect the norther half of the country whilst the south remains under the influence of the ridge

Edited October 19, 2019 by knocker

[knocker]

According to the gfs the next few days and through the weekend is essentially a struggle between the active trough to the NW/W, controlled by the TPV over northern Russia and the struggle by the European high to get a foothold. Complicated further by the trough getting a boost from a conduit established south of the now isolated high cell over Greenland And unlike in previous runs it fails to get a foothold and thus the weather becomes generally unsettled, Given the uncertainty of all of this I have no confidence whatsoever that this will be near the money

Edited October 19, 2019 by knocker

[knocker]

Although the GEFS has a bit of a struggle vis trough/ridge later next week it does eventually have the ridge gaining a foothold Cross model agreement even more essential here and getting NOAA on board

[knocker]

The ecm is better than the gfs in that it doesn't establish a lnk south of Greenland to the trough and thus facilitates the European high to ridge north west and initiate more settled conditions for the UK

 

Edited October 19, 2019 by knocker

[ItNeverSnowsInWindsor]

Nice birthday charts on the GFS 0z run with lots of cold air plunging south for north and west Europe 

Edited October 19, 2019 by prolongedSnowLover

[knocker]

The main energy flow is running south of the Greenland block via the Atlantic trough to be westerly over the UK in the 5-10 period. But in the latter stages the European subtropical high is starting to amplify north west and this continues in the ext period neatly cutting this off portending more settled weather

Edited October 19, 2019 by knocker

[Iceaxecrampon]

00z  03/11/2019

The joys of FI  - Azores LP? 

I'm lampost ready.

[feb1991blizzard]

15 minutes ago, Iceaxecrampon said:

00z  03/11/2019

The joys of FI  - Azores LP? 

I'm lampost ready.

I have to say, when i looked at the pressure chart, i had to make sure the dates matched up, i would not have expected anything to show up on the snow charts from that setup at this time of year.

[Iceaxecrampon]

1 minute ago, feb1991blizzard said:

I have to say, when i looked at the pressure chart, i had to make sure the dates matched up, i would not have expected anything to show up on the snow charts from that setup at this time of year.

Yes it is FI and i'm maybe too eager for the best season of the year.

Looking at the direction of the LP - some serious cold has to be in place and as you say it is far too early yet.

[Methuselah]

What's better than an interesting, if highly unlikely, GFS FI Special to greet the day?

   

But, as the 00Z GEFS ensembles show, the Operational has 'gone off on one'!

   

   

TBH though, I'm rather glad it won't happen: what's to like about 7C with patchy drizzle!

 

 

[Tim Bland]

I’m liking the general pattern of a Greenland High and a southern tracking jet. It won’t produce much of interest for a month or so yet but patterns tend to repeat themselves so let’s hope this one does. I’ll only start to get excited when I see a whole page on this forum that isn’t 80% posts from Knocker..that way you know winter is really starting to kick in

[Frosty.]

Has anyone mentioned the Ecm 0z operational ?...it shows an Indian summer with warm S'ly / SE'ly winds!...also, The GEFS 0z shows very little appetite for cold air digging south, indeed it shows far more support for warm air pumping north!