Model Output Discussion - early October

[feb1991blizzard]

14 minutes ago, JON SNOW said:

For those trying to learn..game on for what exactly?

A stonking big Greenland high, ultimately the goal is to shift all the cold air westwards, that would be a good starting point as it would colden down the continent with genuinely cold air, that Greenland high like that is November 2010ish - massively anomalous for the time of year.

[Methuselah]

Nowt cold about these charts:

Very much like the summer, IMO: -NAO but heat being pumped northwards from the Continent? Has the entire NH weather-pattern ground to a halt?

 

[booferking]

Would be nice of the control was in control of are weather.

[Met4Cast]

Certainly some strange outputs appearing in the extended at the moment. Last nights EC weekly keeps positive height anomalies broadly to the north of the UK through much of November

It'll be interesting to see how any downwelling from the strat during early November impacts this forecast, could potentially be some interest during November.

[Methuselah]

I'm thinking, what with all the scatter we're seeing just now, that assessing the way things are going based on the models is, at this time, a fruitless exercise...?

    

    

Pattern-change alert?

[summer blizzard]

Looking at the GFS we do see the pattern change at day 6 to a Tropical Maritime one. At day 11 the high starts to build over us but in FI the GFS blows it away. 

The Euro of course has a very different outcome in the long run with the main Atlantic Trough retrogressing through days 8-10 due to an initially stronger low never allowing the high to our south east to properly build.

[Man With Beard]

So the EC clusters have reached November, and winter fans will enjoy what they're seeing so far - very suggestive of height anomalies to the NW:

Looks fairly well balanced between a) solid block towards Greenland b) UK block, probably a frosty one, and c) a stray trough to the SW maintaining a S'ly flow. One milder option, two colder options. 

[JeffC]

3 hours ago, Ed Stone said:

Nowt cold about these charts:

Very much like the summer, IMO: -NAO but heat being pumped northwards from the Continent? Has the entire NH weather-pattern ground to a halt?

 

isn't that the hallmark of a solar minimum though Pete? entrenched patterns that just stay as they are or rinse and repeat?

[Mucka]

The original ECM I thought unlikely of a West based -NAO and warm SouthWesterly flow to end the Month has gained support.

It looks as though the trough is not going to push through with a clean resolution of Atlantic block and deep trough to our NE with N flow so the question is how far SW of Britain the secondary low that splits from the trough will be.

This will likely make the difference between a very mild SW flow to end Oct or chilly N/NE flow not withstanding some messy inbetween is always possible.

The GFS 06z Op and Control are a pretty good example.

If we were in Winter there would be endless analysis of how the pattern might unfold and why but at this time of year a strong Atlantic/Greenland block is a waste of a good Winter pattern.

I think I would prefer to be in the mild SW flow at this point.

 

[knocker]

As expected frequent heavy and squally showers here today with some impressive Cbs around. So the midday ascent no surprise. clouds tops up to 20,000ft maybe

Edited October 18, 2019 by knocker

[Frosty.]

Looking at the GEFS 6z there could be an early taste of winter for the far north next Friday with some snow!❄

Certainly some interesting postage stamps!

Edited October 18, 2019 by JON SNOW

[knocker]

2 hours ago, Met4Cast said:

Certainly some strange outputs appearing in the extended at the moment. Last nights EC weekly keeps positive height anomalies broadly to the north of the UK through much of November

It'll be interesting to see how any downwelling from the strat during early November impacts this forecast, could potentially be some interest during November.

Equally one could say a weak trough covers the Atlantic centered near Iceland probably indicating south westerly zephyrs  Lovely jubbly

Edited October 18, 2019 by knocker

[knocker]

Everyone is aware of the preamble so just a brief look at t144 .> T192 with the gfs this evening

Essentially it can be summed up by the Atlantic trough disrupting as the European high pressure amplifies west resulting in the N/S split over the UK becoming more generally dry and sunny.

And to enter briefly into the spirit of the thread, a toasty Europe

[northwestsnow]

4 minutes ago, knocker said:

Everyone is aware of the preamble so just a brief look at t144 .> T192 with the gfs this evening

Essentially it can be summed up by the Atlantic trough disrupting as the European high pressure amplifies west resulting in the N/S split over the UK becoming more generally dry and sunny.

And to enter briefly into the spirit of the thread, a toasty Europe

SE Europe looks toasty !!

Dry will do for me now, looks mainly dry for the UK for the next week or so

[knocker]

2 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

SE Europe looks toasty !!

Dry will do for me now, looks mainly dry for the UK for the next week or so

Certainly a lot better than of late

[MATTWOLVES 3]

Yet again some juicy ensembles being thrown out from the 12z run... The control run itself was very nice. 

[summer blizzard]

GFS tonight keeps the 'warmth' as it were relatively brief with high pressure building quicker than the morning runs and with a cooler surface air mass potentially. 

[SLEETY]

Yes a nice Arctic blast keeps showing up in the ensembles ,some of the UK's coldest winters had one notable cold blast in the autumn BTW!

[feb1991blizzard]

9 minutes ago, Mattwolves said:

... The control run itself was very nice. 

 

Certainly was. Snow across a large swathe of the country.

[knocker]

The ext GEFs is certainly not without interest with the expansion of the European high between the TPV over northern Russia and low pressure to the south and west of the UK 

[northwestsnow]

1 minute ago, knocker said:

The ext GEFs is certainly not without interest with the expansion of the European high between the TPV over northern Russia and low pressure to the south and west of the UK 

Hoping to see some old school Autumn cool,foggy/misty mornings for some canal fishing Knocker

[Frosty.]

The GEFS 12z mean also looks benign longer term, suggests a predominantly quiet / pleasant seasonal pattern, and perhaps very mild further south, relatively cooler further north and a bit more unsettled at times across the far n / nw.

Edited October 18, 2019 by JON SNOW

[Jordan S]

Apart from the risk of rain pushing up from France into southern areas on Monday its looking more settled next week and once any rain clears back south high pressure topples over and if the gfs is correct becoming dominant across all parts in the extended gfs with only unsettled conditions for a short time later next week in Northern parts and coming back at the very end of the run but unreliable time frame.

Perhaps fog and frost a frequent visitor instead of the rain. 

Edited October 18, 2019 by jordan smith

[Methuselah]

The Op ends thus:    

But, as the 12Z ensembles show, there's little support for it -- once past the 27th, the signal's lost in the noise:

                                                                                  

                              

[I remember Atlantic 252]

looks good, deep FI, but too late I reckon for summery weather