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Model Output Discussion - early October


Paul
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Posted
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
  • Weather Preferences: Heavy disruptive snowfall.
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
5 minutes ago, CreweCold said:

We're going to need a warming concentrated over Canada this year- preferably early doors. This because the natural response to the warm NE Pacific will be a HP in that area and low heights around the Canadian/Greenland sector.

True, but i am not convinced about those early doors things anymore, things have looked good a lot the last few years early doors, i am still hoping those PDO sst's will cool down by mid winter although admit i am not holding much hope.

lemon : sorry - these posts should be in the other thread, assumed it was the other thread before checking.

Edited by feb1991blizzard
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Posted
  • Location: Crewe, Cheshire
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, storms and other extremes
  • Location: Crewe, Cheshire
1 minute ago, feb1991blizzard said:

True, but i am not convinced about those early doors things anymore, things have looked good a lot the last few years early doors, i am still hoping those PDO sst's will cool down by mid winter although admit i am not holding much hope.

The longer we can hold off downwelling of the upper zonal flow, the better- especially given the Pacific set up. As the last few years have shown, once coupling happens to a strong strat flow, the writing is on the wall. A HP anchored in the NE Pacific is a death knell when this is the case. Very very hard to wriggle out of as cold air repeatedly flows down through Canada and the States and thus invigorating the jet.

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Posted
  • Location: Sedgley 175metres above sea level
  • Weather Preferences: Any kind of extremes. But the more snow the better.
  • Location: Sedgley 175metres above sea level

Once again some impressive cold pooling on the GFS 12Z ensembles, some a direct hit, others have some serious cold pooling to our NE/E. They keep being flagged up so I will keep posting em, just need a couple to hit home now. 

gens-0-0-384.png

gens-2-0-228.png

gens-2-0-360.png

gens-2-1-264.png

gens-8-0-384.png

gens-17-0-384.png

gens-18-0-384.png

gens-19-0-384.png

gens-19-1-372.png

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Posted
  • Location: Camborne
  • Location: Camborne

Perhaps the NOAA and EPS 5-10 anomalies give an idea why the detail is a tad difficult to pin down at the moment albeit the det run is within the framework. Strong ridging into Greenland with the trough disruption in the Atlantic creating a connection with the TPV over northern Russia.Still the indications are of an improving picture (albeit not exactly difficult) with a weak upper flow in the eastern Atlantic

5-10.thumb.png.49619f9e8ab8e678717b485a98eedf96.png610day_03.thumb.gif.b509a04e19a5b96f69b700c0d694fd43.gif

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Posted
  • Location: Bedfordshire
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms, plumes, snow, severe weather
  • Location: Bedfordshire

Friday looks like a wet day for many, as a low pressure system crosses to the NW of the British Isles.

Friday morning also looks like quite a wet start for many, with places of England and Wales waking up to some heavy, blustery showers - with perhaps the odd rumble of thunder heard in one of these showers. Northern England looks like the driest of England, with a cloudy start to the morning and perhaps a few mist or fog patches, although there still is the risk of catching some showers. Scotland also has the chance of catching a few showers in the morning and perhaps a few fog or mist patches too. Northern Ireland and western Scotland also looks dry for the morning, with the risk of catching a shower being relatively low.

friday.thumb.png.70bab94e57c1a9d2cb5a124bcf727fca.pngprecip1.thumb.png.38cfb44abc280709e0362207bf5e688e.pngprecip4.thumb.png.8e6d8a3f38308e8375da23e341ee1e90.pnggfs.thumb.png.945188c1a56061a4d6234de2f8df0fe9.png

As the day progresses, and we head into the afternoon, parts of England and Wales will have the risk of seeing showers all day, becoming heavy and blustery. The same goes for Scotland and northern England, and once again, where these showers occur, they could be heavy and blustery. Northern Ireland once again seeing the driest of weather, with a moderate risk of a shower. Some places in Northern Ireland and western Scotland could stay dry all day. 

precip.thumb.png.661f22b95476d4ade515b38ff69f399f.pngprecip2.thumb.png.c568ee0b7d26af417da577b7d628bb31.pngprecip5.thumb.png.b269ae307066047d58c13dd7af21d7e8.pnggfs0.thumb.png.f0bf21fcd5e78c7fdcf2e68c495d8406.png

As we head into the evening, once again, it will remain wet for most parts of the British Isles. A band of more heavy and persistent rain has the chance of edging its way into eastern parts of Scotland into the evening and overnight. Parts of England and Wales will still have some heavy showers to end the day, but there is the chance of catching some late evening sunshine inbetween these showers. Speaking of sunshine, Northern Ireland and western Scotland once again looks like they will have the best of the sunshine tomorrow, with still, the risk of a few showers.

precip0.thumb.png.ac7b78c68b0d03e4e6b9180e99bae71e.pngprecip3.thumb.png.74d5d8fa2a9ce27fc13006c26fea670d.pngprecip6.thumb.png.660609f5c874c622f33cea2d8dda3419.pnggfs1.thumb.png.e7cf647b45e8c7781dc13146cedbe928.png

The peak temperatures in the south should range from 9-15c, and in the north it should range from 7-13c.

temp.thumb.png.cdb9af39993138e77b908fa4c20a2c62.pngtemp0.thumb.png.7c37bfbd0b45b80c9442c53c84c68c8d.png

This will be my last post on this thread for about a week or so as I'm going to Mallorca - interesting week there as it looks!

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Posted
  • Location: Windermere 120m asl
  • Location: Windermere 120m asl

Models flip flopping around at the moment - all a sign there is major uncertainty in the forecast as we move through next week. Heights set to build strongly towards Greenland, and the longwave trough is set to split and sit partly to our west and also our NE, whilst at the same time heights are forecast to build out to our south. What it leaves the UK in is a bit of a battleground, with no clarity which feature will be the dominant one. I think we will have to wait until Sunday at the earliest before we have any certainty - and consequently expect more flip flopping from the models in the runs ahead, from balmy southerlies, back to arctic northerlies, high pressure sat over the UK, and cyclonic low.

The GFS run is quite an off one, with a closed deep low pressure system sat out to our West detached from the main trough - a cut off low of sorts.

There could be quite marked variations in conditions from north to south next week, boundary of cold/mild air quite possibly through the centre of the UK. 

 

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Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North

Well, looking at the Ecm 12z operational / mean regarding later next week there is some potential interest for coldies, it all depends on the position / alignment of that trigger low, as it is, the far north gets an early taste of winter on the operational but as Matt pointed out there is also some wintry Gfs ensemble members so it could still become very fascinating in around a week's time!

ECM1-168.thumb.gif.4d7cbe0070f88dd1a06e0c6d36ffd185.gifECM1-192.thumb.gif.dd93f25d34ff2c8d94b49f8c63474fd0.gifECM0-216.thumb.gif.fe9b4bd6efd3570c295471082f1dd7c4.gifEDM1-168.thumb.gif.ae57b9d5e0af95c1e49f279f5fa80581.gifEDM1-192.thumb.gif.af49fd0b569a6e1a43cae15cf5bdc507.gifEDM1-240.thumb.gif.f6860a561810d20e7907fdd36f6145d7.gif

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Posted
  • Location: Hoyland,barnsley,south yorkshire(134m asl)
  • Weather Preferences: severe storms,snow wind and ice
  • Location: Hoyland,barnsley,south yorkshire(134m asl)

There is a lot of flip flopping going on with the models at present with regards to next week,all good model watching at the moment,will the cold win out or will we get a warm plume from the south?

the ICON seems to want the northerly again just like last evening,can it be trusted?

iconnh-0-180.thumb.png.db32b83199a369a9c62218cd158755ed.pngiconnh-1-180.thumb.png.d94ce53d10811d6ba1543b41d1757c41.png

well looking at the scatter from the gefs/ecm ens shannon's in the house(this for my local)

graphe_ens3_kfg2.thumb.gif.518d17085753283047f5338c773eda93.gifgraphe_ens3.thumb.png.8ddb11c06e3bff85820b4c2406cfa9dc.png

gefs/ecm means at day ten show ridging still into Greenland with main chunk of TPV in Siberia,it doesn't look to out of the ordinary for the southern half of the uk and maybe warmer than of late with some pleasant weather with some patches of fog and frost at night

gensnh-21-1-240.thumb.png.f95149480ba092384cdcf345dae084b8.pngEDH1-240.thumb.gif.fc7b5b78002c598b71a7e0546d642032.gif

the latest from cpc 8-14 day outlook showing stronger ridging into Greenland than last evenings and the NAO still into neg values

814day_03.thumb.gif.86f5485c6b55d6b8a6b7360a9600c5a3.gifnao.sprd2.thumb.gif.f9f7d25c2efe400e405ebf0550aae26d.gif

gfs 18z rolling out and it looks quiet pleasant for the uk at this point.

gfsnh-0-192.thumb.png.7a09a74f62c9968ac6ac4c2e83991f12.png

 

Edited by Allseasons-si
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Posted
  • Location: leicester
  • Location: leicester
35 minutes ago, Allseasons-si said:

There is a lot of flip flopping going on with the models at present with regards to next week,all good model watching at the moment,will the cold win out or will we get a warm plume from the south?

the ICON seems to want the northerly again just like last evening,can it be trusted?

iconnh-0-180.thumb.png.db32b83199a369a9c62218cd158755ed.pngiconnh-1-180.thumb.png.d94ce53d10811d6ba1543b41d1757c41.png

well looking at the scatter from the gefs/ecm ens shannon's in the house(this for my local)

graphe_ens3_kfg2.thumb.gif.518d17085753283047f5338c773eda93.gifgraphe_ens3.thumb.png.8ddb11c06e3bff85820b4c2406cfa9dc.png

gefs/ecm means at day ten show ridging still into Greenland with main chunk of TPV in Siberia,it doesn't look to out of the ordinary for the southern half of the uk and maybe warmer than of late with some pleasant weather with some patches of fog and frost at night

gensnh-21-1-240.thumb.png.f95149480ba092384cdcf345dae084b8.pngEDH1-240.thumb.gif.fc7b5b78002c598b71a7e0546d642032.gif

the latest from cpc 8-14 day outlook showing stronger ridging into Greenland than last evenings and the NAO still into neg values

814day_03.thumb.gif.86f5485c6b55d6b8a6b7360a9600c5a3.gifnao.sprd2.thumb.gif.f9f7d25c2efe400e405ebf0550aae26d.gif

gfs 18z rolling out and it looks quiet pleasant for the uk at this point.

gfsnh-0-192.thumb.png.7a09a74f62c9968ac6ac4c2e83991f12.png

 

Such a shame!!it looks like we gona miss out on an early cold snap with the frustrating west based nao unless it shifts east in the morning!!was looking rosey  early in the week!!never mind still got all winter to look forward to!!

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Posted
  • Location: Hoyland,barnsley,south yorkshire(134m asl)
  • Weather Preferences: severe storms,snow wind and ice
  • Location: Hoyland,barnsley,south yorkshire(134m asl)
5 minutes ago, shaky said:

Such a shame!!it looks like we gona miss out on an early cold snap with the frustrating west based nao unless it shifts east in the morning!!was looking rosey  early in the week!!never mind still got all winter to look forward to!!

It's just one run Shaky and totally different to the 12z,lets see where it sits in the ens soon

there is still lots to be resolved for next week 

what has me interested a weeny bit is that there is slightly more warming on this run compared to the 12z elongating the pv

gfsnh-10-276.thumb.png.011856c4612315ec33ee9acf0ed6a3a6.pnggfsnh-10-288.thumb.png.cb784257e4be0506961e9e0cb80b911a.png

 

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Posted
  • Location: Camborne
  • Location: Camborne

The North Atlantic 500mb and surface analysis for midnight and the 950mb winds for the UK for midday

gfs-natl_wide-z500_anom-1356800.thumb.png.a6b3657ca4155950ce6590b94c89ea54.pngPPVA89.thumb.gif.a11ff11127117086895279ab4b2e7682.gif950wind_d02_18.thumb.png.b66c20aa238caf9faa4d34d7ee6f675e.png

With the filling low still dominating proceedings another day of sunshine and heavy showers and prolonged periods of rain courtesy of troughs embedded in the circulation. Currently one of these is occurring over southern/central and eastern England and this will track north east through the early morning whilst at the same time frequent heavy showers track east effecting the south west and Wales through the rest of the day, And later more persistent rain  will ingress the NE of Scotland from the North Sea

PPVE89.thumb.gif.fc610857bea0e48d62084f1cd2b2133f.gif2mtemp_d02_20.thumb.png.e3cbdffd752958eb286542d07a3317c2.pngmeanreflec_d02_21.thumb.png.87b5a073f2a327ad47a3ba87825fcce7.png

By midnight the low is centred near NW Wales and there are bits and bobs of fronts littered around in close proximity so whilst most of the showers will dissipate in other regions, more persistent rain will still effect regions close to these. to whit, north Wales. N. Ireland, northern England and Scotland

PPVG89.thumb.gif.41b542fcd60bb6a37c6daee91ee76f14.gifprecip_d02_33.thumb.png.2c586eefb6b36076e7ad79819e88848d.png

On Saturday the filling low has drifted a tad further east so another day of sunshine and with perhaps the more persistent rain over southern Scotland. Quite windy in the north, perhaps reaching gale force over the northern isles

PPVI89.thumb.gif.7ea992f3116ffa4e921c878f356cda87.gif2mtemp_d02_44.thumb.png.569caf61ab7cbc3091aea89eb2b00059.pngprecip_d02_44.thumb.png.95b5b1499433965c4e016499410a8651.png

Over Saturday and through Sunday the amplification is occurring that has been covered in previous posts and the trough is being shunted south. This results in a progressively much better day all round with just the odd shower but certainly a cooler day, particularly in the north, with temps below average, as the surface wind veers under the influence of the ridge

gfs-natl_wide-vort500_z500-1594400.thumb.png.9588bea86c7ee1b0cc4d76e131729871.pngPPVJ89.thumb.gif.73554d5db67cd2d4c74f41b775279293.gifPPVK89.thumb.gif.8537f8290c723c49bb184507bbe2573b.gif

The improvement continues on Monday courtesy of the subtropical high ridging north east across the country but some showery rain may just effect the far south as an occlusion associated with a shallow low drifts quite close

PPVM89.thumb.gif.6ada40cd49beb074d3f1f2244bb194dd.gifgfs-uk-t2m_c_max6-1680800.thumb.png.5545ec289075b19bc2db2a3404f3428c.png

The showery rain will continue in the south but remaining fine with light winds elsewhere but another trough has tracked east into the Atlantic and rain from a front associated with this will just impinge on north western regions later as the wind also picks up

gfs-natl_wide-vort500_z500-1767200.thumb.png.8a39eb4dcd2437754a2056af65e928d1.pngPPVO89.thumb.gif.7be60967a905d5c554d66d71210d9f6a.gifgfs-uk-t2m_c_max6-1767200.thumb.png.c9c9a1366dd256159c49ef5c392fe036.png

Edited by knocker
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Posted
  • Location: Camborne
  • Location: Camborne

By Wednesday the new trough has linked with the TPV as the subtropical continues to ridge strongly in the Labrador Straits, and strong strong winds and rain continue to effect the north

gfs-nhemi-z500_anom-1832000.thumb.png.34360c015742a14656dcaa5ff1bb5296.png132.thumb.png.e8a3a3e0f579c59ed13c66ca0d168d56.png

Over the next couple of days the elongated positively tilted trough starts to deconstruct as the European high ridges east across the UK resulting in the better weather in the south becoming more general. But it's a bit knife edgy and very liable to some adjustments

gfs-nhemi-z500_anom-2004800.thumb.png.d708047a49879e7639b8f3e9239b7d9a.png186.thumb.png.80532575f4103a1e5d3b6f8ab860e717.png

 

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Posted
  • Location: Derbyshire Peak District South Pennines Middleton & Smerrill Tops 305m (1001ft) asl.
  • Location: Derbyshire Peak District South Pennines Middleton & Smerrill Tops 305m (1001ft) asl.

The GFS indicating much drier/settled conditions than of late as we head into November.

1251667236_viewimage(54).thumb.png.c4c18e06b557c6ad38dd3bb26256efb2.png970145492_viewimage(55).thumb.png.8b30e55930b2b131ed16eb55b04bdd6c.png324630760_viewimage(56).thumb.png.fa3aa89c93dd901de3ff38401f352012.png

Edited by Polar Maritime
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Posted
  • Location: Camborne
  • Location: Camborne

A cursory glance at the latest EC46 update for the 7th Nov > 21st

Not much to say actually. Vortex over N. Canada with a weak trough down the central Atlantic but with a weak upper flow, particularly in the vicinity of the UK a slack pressure regime would appear quite likely over the UK with transient systems more likely to effect the north west. Temp around average

ecmwf-natl_wide-z500_anom_7day-3689600.thumb.png.2693d047b488d03f959a029e0c69807e.pngecmwf-natl_wide-z500_anom_7day-4294400.thumb.png.4c5aaec4b0803285967ed4c1e1bc70bc.pngecmwf-eur-precip_168hr_inch-4294400.thumb.png.2c7166d46d717f1d8fb87d0b93b5bfa3.png

 

Edited by knocker
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Posted
  • Location: Derbyshire Peak District South Pennines Middleton & Smerrill Tops 305m (1001ft) asl.
  • Location: Derbyshire Peak District South Pennines Middleton & Smerrill Tops 305m (1001ft) asl.

Net-wx certainly showing some Snow scope Monday for the Cairngorms.

2054915382_viewimage(59).thumb.png.4511c4cc581307d9cd9169c77adc74a2.png

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Posted
  • Location: Buckinghamshire
  • Location: Buckinghamshire

Drier for Monday in the south next week but some rain perhaps pushing in Monday night to Tuesday mabye lingering into Wednesday?

Arpege.. 

00_102_ukpreciptype.thumb.png.38ff008a63e27f0ffa859661050b73a9.png

Icon.. 

00_90_ukpreciptype.thumb.png.b1bac2f678d1f56dbef50fcb544cdb9f.png

00_99_ukpreciptype.thumb.png.98d85e27f8479a1f753267138e973e6f.png

May not be plain sailing into dry weather next week but apart from that a big improvement for most of us. :oldsmile:

Edited by jordan smith
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Posted
  • Location: Camborne
  • Location: Camborne

The ext EPS mean anomaly pretty much as expected. A fairly diffuse vortex N. Canada > N. Russia (main center), ridging into Greenland and a week trough in the eastern Atlantic. Ergo a slack westerly upper flow suggesting a quiescent period of weather with temps average or a tad below

The hills are alive to the sound of music

ecmwf-natl_wide-z500_anom_5day-2480000.png

Edited by knocker
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Posted
  • Location: Tyrone
  • Location: Tyrone
9 minutes ago, knocker said:

The ext EPS mean anomaly pretty much as expected. A fairly diffuse vortex N. Canada > N. Russia (main center), ridging into Greenland and a week trough in the eastern Atlantic. Ergo a slack westerly upper flow suggesting a quiescent period of weather with temps average or a tad below

The hills are alive to the sound of music

ecmwf-natl_wide-z500_anom_5day-2480000.png

Nice ridging into Greenland on that chart like.

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Posted
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunder, snow, heat, sunshine...
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.

Things looking much more settled (and mild) now, according to the GFS 00Z Operational; HP dominates the back half of the run:

h500slp.png    h850t850eu.png

h500slp.png    h850t850eu.png

And, for once, the GEFS 00Z ensembles appear to back-up this scenario -- at least until the 06Zs come out?:oldgrin:

prmslLondon.png   t850London.png

t2mLondon.png   prcpLondon.png

 

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Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
2 hours ago, feb1991blizzard said:

Yes - beaten to it but ECM says game on again.

image.thumb.png.1a06bd813910c45c9306d13c2ba55d34.png

For those trying to learn..game on for what exactly?

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