Model Output Discussion - early October

[Seasonality]

23 minutes ago, shaky said:

Some fantastic charts appearing from ecm and gfs!!cannot wait for these frosty cold evening in a week or 2 whilst am on my deliveroo rounds!!and also those crisp morning runs!!am so excited!!the blocking around greenland and iceland is now showing up quite frequently on the gfs!!time to take it seriously!!

Crisp morning runs are one the best parts of cooler weather imo. Hope these come to fruition @shaky

[Jordan S]

Focusing on the short term for a moment some very squally rain is shown to push quickly east across the southern half of England and much of wales accompanied by pretty strong wind gusts through tonight with Gusts of 50-60mph along the Channel for a short time according to the arome definitely heavy downpours pushing through.. 

although once that clears winds may ease a little but heavy showers push back through as we head into tomorrow morning but as always some places will see decent sunshine tomorrow but others getting downpour after downpour indeed arome's rainfall accumations for tonight show quite a large amount of rain

with most of that from the squally rain (heavy rain accompanied by suddenly much higher wind gusts) pushing east around the middle of the night ofcourse rainfall amounts will vary from place to place.. Showers elsewhere but tonight looking lively for the south and west. 

Edited October 17, 2019 by jordan smith

[Jonathan Rhodri Roberts]

18 hours ago, Ed Stone said:

What a spiffing start to November this could be -- possible inversions permitting!

   

But, not to worry, snow lovers...it's only tail-end flapping syndrome?

   

   

Here today, gone tomorrow!

 

That would be great news for half term here in Wales, we had a unseasonably mild February half term, can it really happen again, fingers crossed it can

Edited October 17, 2019 by Jonathan Rhodri Roberts

[knocker]

No surprise at the instability today. Tops possible to 30,00 ft but realistically 20, 000

Edited October 17, 2019 by knocker

[Methuselah]

2 hours ago, Ed Stone said:

Nae bad, for November 2nd: chances of snow, frost and freezing fog!

   

Just to add -- the ensembles lend some support: a colder outlook looks more likely...?

   

   

[Frosty.]

The GEFS 6z certainly isn't without wintry interest both later next week and into early November, however, it could just as easily be unseasonably mild during the same period, there's very conflicting chaotic signals with arctic air to the north and plenty of warmth to the south so it's not easy to say what's going to transpire..nothing of interest if the latest update is anything to go by..pretty much the same as yesterday but of course that doesn't preclude some early interest for coldies! 

sorry about the charts not being in the right order.

Edited October 17, 2019 by JON SNOW

[booferking]

Nice Northerly on the icon..

[I remember Atlantic 252]

2 hours ago, Jonathan Rhodri Roberts said:

That would be great news for half term here in Wales, we had a unseasonably mild February half term, can it really happen again, fingers crossed it can

holiday week here too 28th to 1st, some are on holiday next week in UK

[MATTWOLVES 3]

Yet again some impressive heights setting up shop towards Greenland.... Could this be the year of the Greenland anticyclone! Or will it all go Pete tong come the time it really matters.... Time to place ya bets folks. 

[feb1991blizzard]

6 minutes ago, Mattwolves said:

Yet again some impressive heights setting up shop towards Greenland.... Could this be the year of the Greenland anticyclone! Or will it all go Pete tong come the time it really matters.... Time to place ya bets folks. 

Yes, pretty similar except not as sharper ridge into the Pole as on the 6z, looks like a quasi stationary trough but it also did on the 6z, can we squeeze and undercut against the odds again, and more importantly, can a decent percentage of the whole 12z suites.

[SLEETY]

Still looks like some sort of Arctic blast is on the way ,eventually,but with a massive pattern change possibly on the way,it's little surprise the GFS is making a complete pigs ear of  how we get there..Latest run just looks  a complete mess

[knocker]

Certainly the gfs indicating much better weather Monday > Friday next week particularly in the bottom two thirds of the country.. From Weds the north will be adversely effected by further trough disruption to the west thus patchy rain winds likely. The usual caveats apply

 

Edited October 17, 2019 by knocker

[Methuselah]

As I said: a colder outlook looks more likely!

   

[MATTWOLVES 3]

12 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

Yes, pretty similar except not as sharper ridge into the Pole as on the 6z, looks like a quasi stationary trough but it also did on the 6z, can we squeeze and undercut against the odds again, and more importantly, can a decent percentage of the whole 12z suites.

Yes Feb, good points... I would say if we can get a similar pattern to what we was experiencing for much of the summer, it would most definitely be a game on. I've got a feeling in me water that this time around we may be having more luck with heights towards Greenland and let's not forget Scandinavia, another favourable position for us to import much colder Conditions out of Russia. Heres hoping. 

[booferking]

16 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

Yes, pretty similar except not as sharper ridge into the Pole as on the 6z, looks like a quasi stationary trough but it also did on the 6z, can we squeeze and undercut against the odds again, and more importantly, can a decent percentage of the whole 12z suites.

We all know that GFS makes a pigs ear of Atlantic lows blowing them up all over the place.

[feb1991blizzard]

1 minute ago, Mattwolves said:

Yes Feb, good points... I would say if we can get a similar pattern to what we was experiencing for much of the summer, it would most definitely be a game on. I've got a feeling in me water that this time around we may be having more luck with heights towards Greenland and let's not forget Scandinavia, another favourable position for us to import much colder Conditions out of Russia. Heres hoping. 

Either way, i would take either of this or the last GFS, it would send the snow cover through the roof and the OPI through the floor, then we want wet and pseudo zonal with a trough anchored over us around Nov 10th, with a blocking sceuro high, that should set us up for a decent winter.

[shaky]

15 minutes ago, Ed Stone said:

As I said: a colder outlook looks more likely!

   

Lol dont think it will be that mild especially at night!!maybe even a frost  considering the time of year!!

[knocker]

The main features of the GEFS mean anomaly this evening are the ridging in the western Atlantic and the TPV over northern Russia with the associated deconstructed trough down the central Atlantic resulting in a somewhat weak, split, meridional flow across the Atlantic portending some better weather but with a southerly bias

 

Edited October 17, 2019 by knocker

[Methuselah]

Och we'ell, the ensembles seem to have reverted to their normal less-than-exciting selves:

   

   

Macaroni cheese, without the cheese, anyone?

[knocker]

It all appears very complex next week with the subtropical high zones zones amplifying and the subsequent trough disruption and energy flows so not much point in getting too het up on detail An overview would be improving Sunday, pretty good Mon/Tues and then downhill

Edited October 17, 2019 by knocker

[Frosty.]

I went in search of Arctic cold but as you can see, I wasn't very successful..I found an Indian summer though, several actually!!

[Cheshire Freeze]

Day 10 ECM looks good WRT an early strat warming pattern to me- shame it's day 10

@feb1991blizzard

Edited October 17, 2019 by CreweCold

[feb1991blizzard]

9 minutes ago, CreweCold said:

Day 10 ECM looks good WRT an early strat warming pattern to me- shame it's day 10

@feb1991blizzard

Unsure - i would have to trawl back through the strat thread for pre-cursor patterns (new computer since then and not got them now), would like to see a trop split vortex wave 2 from Atlantic to Pacific but the  around mid November would like a trough anchored over us vertically aligned to pole driving waves and a Sceuro high becoming scandi by December - think that has a pretty decent strike rate for SSW's.

We Could do with Chionomaniac on here more often for guidance.

Edited October 17, 2019 by feb1991blizzard

[Cheshire Freeze]

4 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

Unsure - i would have to trawl back through the strat thread for pre-cursor patterns (new computer since then and not got them now), would like to see a trop split vortex wave 2 from Atlantic to Pacific but the  around mid November would like a trough anchored over us vertically aligned to pole driving waves and a Sceuro high becoming scandi by December - think that has a pretty decent strike rate for SSW's.

We're going to need a warming concentrated over Canada this year- preferably early doors (November). This because the natural response to the warm NE Pacific will be a HP in that area and low heights around the Canadian/Greenland sector.

Edited October 17, 2019 by CreweCold

[Jordan S]

Arome showing pretty big rainfall accumulations for South East England in the next couple of days with lines of heavy downpours and more general showery rain quite consistently effecting the far southeast lots of showers elsewhere too across England and Wales whether this verifies as wet as this in the next couple of days we'll have to see but didn't do too bad at picking up today's showers but most other models aren't showing rainfall anywhere near as much so arome out on its own with this tbh but worth keeping an eye on the radar I think..

Arome.. 

Met office radar looking lively for later tonight and tomorrow too..

But apart from perhaps a lot of showers tomorrow there should be a reasonable amount of sunshine at times though windy especially tonight and in showers. Next week does according to the gfs bring much more settled conditions particularly to the south but not exclusively so perhaps even warm by day for a time.. 

Edited October 17, 2019 by jordan smith