Model Output Discussion - early October

[Jordan S]

ECM output for around 9 to 10 days away so likely to change alot but a very interesting and deep low pressure system is shown effecting England and Wales some very windy and wet weather even snow progged for northern parts ofcourse very unlikely to verify but an interesting output to say the least. 

 

 

 

Edited October 16, 2019 by jordan smith

[MATTWOLVES 3]

These GFS ensembles from the 6z look a little more tastier than not so long back, a fair few scraping the - 5C line. The precipitation lines moving up towards the months end as well..... Dare I say it.... Could there be something a tad wintry!!! Ps.... Sorry if I have not put likes to some of your comments, I have currently reached my limit on how many I can put... So not missing anyone out.... Some great posts today guys... 

[SLEETY]

So hopefully things drying out in a week's or so time and some kind of Arctic blast after that looking likely.

 

Not uncommon in October but hopefully the NH profile won't return to type as we head into D J F,we can live in hope,for once

 

[knocker]

1 hour ago, Mattwolves said:

These GFS ensembles from the 6z look a little more tastier than not so long back, a fair few scraping the - 5C line. The precipitation lines moving up towards the months end as well..... Dare I say it.... Could there be something a tad wintry!!! Ps.... Sorry if I have not put likes to some of your comments, I have currently reached my limit on how many I can put... So not missing anyone out.... Some great posts today guys... 

Thats okay thanks, but I wont lose any sleep over it

Edited October 16, 2019 by knocker

[knocker]

After a dry night for just about everyone, it's fairly clear why heavy showers and then more prolonged rain are likely by dawn, and then a little later in western regions. First the trough and then the occlusion tracking east

 

Edited October 16, 2019 by knocker

[Jordan S]

Gfs showing a system in the Mediterranean resembling possibly a medicane type system quite a symmetrical looking low pressure area slow moving with a lot of rain wrapped around it.. no other model is showing it to be honest and whether it would be classed as a medicane if it formed like this is another matter for when/if it happens next week.

Ensembles for my area Aylesbury shows some rain in the next few days and then a drying trend next week before perhaps turning wetter again towards the end of the time period upper air temperatures look like they will stay around the mean perhaps above for a time then perhaps a signal for below average upper air temperatures later. 

Edited October 16, 2019 by jordan smith

[Frosty.]

Just had a butchers at the GEFS 6z mean and it's certainly suggesting an Arctic shot later next week, this period in question could be very interesting indeed, and that includes to the end of october, I honestly think we could see something like late october 2008 when it snowed, even in london..a white Halloween is possible!!...exciting period of model watching to be sure...I know the models are great at pulling the rug from under us when we make predictions but I have a good feeling from a coldie point of view!!!❄❄❄❄❄ 

 

Edited October 16, 2019 by JON SNOW

[LRD]

10 minutes ago, jordan smith said:

Gfs showing a system in the Mediterranean resembling possibly a medicane type system quite a symmetrical looking low pressure area slow moving with a lot of rain wrapped around it.. no other model is showing it to be honest and whether it would be classed as a medicane if it formed like this is another matter for when/if it happens next week.

Ensembles for my area Aylesbury shows some rain in the next few days and then a drying trend next week before perhaps turning wetter again towards the end of the time period upper air temperatures look like they will stay around the mean perhaps above for a time then perhaps a signal for below average upper air temperatures later. 

Lots of runs there between +5 and +10 on upper air temps. I guess (with being too lazy to look through individual ensemble member runs) they have high pressure centred either close to us or right over us? So, warm aloft but possibly cold at the surface. Gut instinct says we won't get a northerly blast and we will end up with a potentially foggy high depending on cloud amounts

[Jordan S]

3 minutes ago, LRD said:

Lots of runs there between +5 and +10 on upper air temps. I guess (with being too lazy to look through individual ensemble member runs) they have high pressure centred either close to us or right over us? So, warm aloft but possibly cold at the surface. Gut instinct says we won't get a northerly blast and we will end up with a potentially foggy high depending on cloud amounts

Judging by the white line the majority have upper air temperatures below o Celsius at 850hpa but there are a significant minority that are still mild and fog would probably feature with them more like you said.

[LRD]

9 minutes ago, jordan smith said:

Judging by the white line the majority have upper air temperatures below o Celsius at 850hpa but there are a significant minority that are still mild and fog would probably feature with them more like you said.

Yes, mild aloft but I don't think we'll see mild conditions on the ground (in a high pressure scenario) so the odds are in favour of cool/cold either way. It's just degrees of cold (pardon the pun)

Edited October 16, 2019 by LRD

[booferking]

Last ukmo 144hr fits in nicely with ecm run from this morning.  The first Northerly blast of the winter would be very likely to happen if the ukmo continued..

[Jordan S]

1 hour ago, LRD said:

Yes, mild aloft but I don't think we'll see mild conditions on the ground (in a high pressure scenario) so the odds are in favour of cool/cold either way. It's just degrees of cold (pardon the pun)

Yeah was going to say about the temperature inversion upper air doesn't always tell the full story. 

[LRD]

12 minutes ago, jordan smith said:

Yeah was going to say about the temperature inversion upper air doesn't always tell the full story. 

Indeed. Although here comes the GFS 12z blowing my theory totally out of the water!  Unsettled with alternating mild and cool spells

Edited October 16, 2019 by LRD

[Frosty.]

8 minutes ago, LRD said:

Indeed. Although here comes the GFS 12z blowing my theory totally out of the water!  Unsettled with alternating mild and cool spells

I'm not so much bothered by what the operational shows, the mean will give a better idea.

[MATTWOLVES 3]

Plenty of interest from the 12z ensembles again folks.... A couple of em hum dingers... I'm feeling the need for an early start this winter.... Last time was 2009.....10 years already! Let's at least hope we have several bites at the cherry. 

[knocker]

Ooh Betty - the GEFS 5-10 mean anomaly  is not a million miles from the morning's EPS Earlier comments still apply

Edited October 16, 2019 by knocker

[Ross Andrew Hemphill]

5 hours ago, jordan smith said:

ECM output for around 9 to 10 days away so likely to change alot but a very interesting and deep low pressure system is shown effecting England and Wales some very windy and wet weather even snow progged for northern parts ofcourse very unlikely to verify but an interesting output to say the least. 

 

 

 

Reminds me of Winter 2017/18 pre BFTE when the jet was a tad south and the models were throwing snow events at us like nobody’s business. I know it’s October but looks similar, and I can’t remember what October 2017 was like lol can anyone enlighten me?

[Zak M]

3 hours ago, jordan smith said:

Gfs showing a system in the Mediterranean resembling possibly a medicane type system quite a symmetrical looking low pressure area slow moving with a lot of rain wrapped around it.. no other model is showing it to be honest and whether it would be classed as a medicane if it formed like this is another matter for when/if it happens next week.

I'm going to Mallorca this Saturday 

[Frosty.]

It's great to see some snow potential for late october from the GEFS today...as Matt said, there are a few hum dingers among the members!❄...my bad, the snow charts are from the 6z but I don't care about that!!

just for balance, there's warm potential too 

 

Edited October 16, 2019 by JON SNOW

[I remember Atlantic 252]

Jon, think I prefer bottom 4!

[Jordan S]

1 hour ago, LRD said:

Indeed. Although here comes the GFS 12z blowing my theory totally out of the water!  Unsettled with alternating mild and cool spells

The operational gfs has done it many times consistently shown this cold pattern the last few days then suddenly completely switches to a more mobile outlook like Jon snow said best to look at means to give a better idea I suspect the gfs will flip flop between a cold blocked pattern and a more mild unsettled one still talking about a week or two away so looking for trends. 

[Jordan S]

20 minutes ago, Zak M said:

I'm going to Mallorca this Saturday 

Well I mean there's not much agreement on this system atm so I wouldn't be too concerned at this stage. 

[Jordan S]

43 minutes ago, Ross Andrew Hemphill said:

Reminds me of Winter 2017/18 pre BFTE when the jet was a tad south and the models were throwing snow events at us like nobody’s business. I know it’s October but looks similar, and I can’t remember what October 2017 was like lol can anyone enlighten me?

October 2017 was drier than average for most of the UK and slightly warmer than average. 

[knocker]

Some explosive cyclogenesis with this nor'easter

[Zak M]

Thursday looks like a really unsettled day for the most of the UK. It's a story of sunshine and heavy, blustery showers.

Thursday morning looks like a pretty wet start for parts of the western coasts of the UK, where first thing, they will be treated to some showers, perhaps heavy. The S and E coasts also have the chance of catching the odd heavy shower. Northern Ireland has the chance of seeing a few showers in the morning, but it should remain dry there. It's the same for Scotland, with most parts there remaining dry, but it will feel quite chilly (correct me if I'm wrong - but the MetO looks like they predict a couple of sleet/snow showers tomorrow morning!) where places of Scotland get the sunshine, perhaps a couple of light showers too.

As the day progresses, and we head into the afternoon, a spell of persistent rain will start to spread in from the south. This rain will affect parts of the S/E, central southern England and East Anglia. Parts of Wales, Northern Ireland, NW England and SW England will be treated to some heavy and blustery showers, with the chance of the odd rumble of thunder. Scotland, once again, looks like the driest place on Thursday, with many areas of Scotland staying dry all day, with the odd chance of catching a bit of rain.

As we head into the evening, essentially everywhere across England and Wales will have the chance of catching a shower, with the odd heavy one. Scotland once again should stay dry into the evening, however, a band of rain could cross parts of S and W Scotland, heavy and persistent in places. It should be clearing up into the evening across Northern Ireland, with most of the showers dying away, leaving it into a nice sunny evening. 

The peak temperatures in the south should range from 11-16c, and in the north it should range from 6-14c.