Model Output Discussion - early October

[knocker]

The ext EPS is indicating quite good news this morning/ The UK trough has long been relegated to the Mediterranean and height rises across the board have tended to suppress further vigorous trough development in the Atlantic, much as I suspect the det run was hinting at, Thus a much weaker upper flow over the eastern Atlantic with pressure building over the IK

Edited October 14, 2019 by knocker

[Methuselah]

The GFS 00Z Operational, at least, gives cause for optimism, regarding some much-needed drying-out time...?

   

Though, I'm not sure as to how much support the decent drying-out spell has from the ensembles; they do keep faffing about...?

   

   

So, hey, ho...it's on to the 06Zs!

Edited October 14, 2019 by Ed Stone

[BLAST FROM THE PAST]

Could be a nice end of the month.  HP centred to our E, mild by day chilly frosty evenings/nights.  Have get this LP that’s going to/is controlling the weather out of the way first.  Looks promising to me though

 

BFTP

[Frosty.]

The GEFS 0z mean still indicates a more benign pleasantly warm signal for late october with height rises to the east, by no means certain that it will be settled though as there are some cooler unsettled zonal members in that timeframe too but on balance the latest models show it could still be a nice last week or so this month with the probable exception of the far NW .

 

Edited October 14, 2019 by JON SNOW

[feb1991blizzard]

51 minutes ago, BLAST FROM THE PAST said:

Could be a nice end of the month.  HP centred to our E, mild by day chilly frosty evenings/nights.  Have get this LP that’s going to/is controlling the weather out of the way first.  Looks promising to me though

 

BFTP

My guess is it will be fairly transient and a return to zonal pretty quick and then the PV really ramping up during November.

[weirpig]

Into Fi  on the gfs  and it brings in high pressure  which would lead to some pleasant conditions   the GFS control however  goes on another path  and brings in 2 very nasty systems  affecting the southern half of the Uk    of course way out to be taking anything as gospel .

  

[Frosty.]

The Gfs 6z operational is trending more settled later this month, firstly from a blocking scandi high / ridge and then a high pressure cell becoming centred over the uk..pleasantly warm surface conditions by day but with some cool nights bringing a risk of mist / fog patches.

 

Edited October 14, 2019 by JON SNOW

[knocker]

Nice depiction of the low that will dominate this week

[Methuselah]

Still looking better towards month's end, though the GEFS 06Z Control doesn't look so good?

   

   

Anywho, how's the harvest been? An Apple day keeps the doctor away?

[BLAST FROM THE PAST]

2 hours ago, feb1991blizzard said:

My guess is it will be fairly transient and a return to zonal pretty quick and then the PV really ramping up during November.

Yes it won’t be long lasting, I anticipate a ‘lively’ early Nov and not too mild either

 

BFTP

[feb1991blizzard]

Just now, BLAST FROM THE PAST said:

Yes it won’t be long lasting, I anticipate a ‘lively’ early Nov and not too mild either

 

BFTP

Take it you are thinking a NW - SE aligned jet with PM air then? - Certainly can't see any blocking although a CFS run the other day did give and Easterly and well below average Nov.

[knocker]

[Frosty.]

Here's a small sample from the GEFS 6z, as you can see, the mid / longer term mean is still suggesting a change to a more benign anticyclonic spell, at least away from the far NW for a time during late october, there is even potential it could stay fine until the end of the month...so, hopefully some welcome respite from the rain / flooding in the not too distant future!

Edited October 14, 2019 by JON SNOW

[Zak M]

18 hours ago, Zak M said:

This rain will be particularly heavy for parts of the south, and the odd lightning strike can't be ruled out too.

Excuse me for saying 'odd lightning strike', but those are some monster storms over western France currently!!

The Met Office have issued an amber warning for these thunderstorms, that are likely to track across Kent in the evening. An amber storm warning for mid October!?! 

Both the GFS and ECMWF have two different samples. The first sample (GFS) shows the storms tracking over Kent (I mostly rely on the GFS) in the evening. The ECMWF, however, tracks the storms further inland, with places like East Anglia getting a good chance on catching a storm. Here are the models:

GFS Precipitation:

NetwX-SR:

sref.io:

 

ECMWF (on Windy.com):

Lightning potential index (sref.io):

[Jordan S]

1 hour ago, Zak M said:

Excuse me for saying 'odd lightning strike', but those are some monster storms over western France currently!!

The Met Office have issued an amber warning for these thunderstorms, that are likely to track across Kent in the evening. An amber storm warning for mid October!?! 

Both the GFS and ECMWF have two different samples. The first sample (GFS) shows the storms tracking over Kent (I mostly rely on the GFS) in the evening. The ECMWF, however, tracks the storms further inland, with places like East Anglia getting a good chance on catching a storm. 

Indeed although the netwx model seems to have the better handle on the storms taking them slightly more west seems to match with current radar well but I shall eat my words saying 'mostly just an area of heavy rain' on Saturday. 

Edited October 14, 2019 by Mapantz
Removed huge quote

[Man With Beard]

Unusual for the EC clusters to be even this much of total mess in the D10-D15 period. Little confidence over where we go for the end of the month imo

[booferking]

GEFS are not without interest for something more in the line with winter charts.

[Methuselah]

Not easy to decipher just what the GEFS 12Z ensembles are saying...

       

Other than that the end looks drier than the beginning...?

[MATTWOLVES 3]

Some rather spiffing GFS ensembles emerging, here are some that could bring an early taste of winter, there are some that would bring an early taste of spring, but I don't like em.... So i won't post em...

[summer blizzard]

GFS would certainly have the potential to deliver a more classically seasonal end to the month (frost and fog). Although the initial pressure build between days 8-11 is probably quite mild and cloudy by day 12 there is just the hint of some cooler surface air developing on the theta E charts (slight inversion) before the high moves west to allow a northerly. 

 

[Jordan S]

Arome seemed to of picked up that line of heavy downpours well this evening in its 12 o'clock run.. Not quite as well with the thundery rain to the east.. Anyway Conditions remaining fairly windy and wet for the rest of the week it seems but apart from Wednesday more in the way of sunshine than some have been use to recently so not all bad. Got a rather interesting weather front in the extended range of the gfs that seems very reluctant to die off or move away essentially being trapped between two ridges of high pressure building over the top of it puts up some resistance but essentially fizzles out. 

Settled spell next week may not be as smooth as thought a couple of days ago but definitely not as wet. 

Edited October 14, 2019 by jordan smith

[booferking]

ECM trying to build pressure towards Greenland also.

[knocker]

A long way down the line but if things pan out anywhere near as expected the relegation of our trough south east could bring some cold and very unsettled weather to the eastern Med

Edited October 14, 2019 by knocker

[BLAST FROM THE PAST]

6 hours ago, feb1991blizzard said:

Take it you are thinking a NW - SE aligned jet with PM air then? - Certainly can't see any blocking although a CFS run the other day did give and Easterly and well below average Nov.

Correct Feb, with luck with potency

 

BFTP

[knocker]

Three days only   ..............................

Edited October 14, 2019 by knocker