Jump to content
Snow?
Local
Radar
Cold?
IGNORED

Model Output Discussion - early October


Paul
Message added by Paul

Want to chat about the upcoming winter?
Please head to the winter speculation and chat thread.

Recommended Posts

Posted
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon
  • Weather Preferences: Hot, cold!
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon

As we look for signs in the operational output rather than just the ensembles that this soggy wet dank affair is about to draw to a close, the closest signal appears to still be at T192, here GEM and GFS 12z:

image.thumb.jpg.9b9b202681458b02ba67bc55af494005.jpgimage.thumb.jpg.f45b611758b925989a5d0cf0d88bbca9.jpg

Prefer the GEM if I'm honest.  Maybe at last a change to something more settled by beginning of the following week.

Edited by Mike Poole
  • Like 7
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Hoyland,barnsley,south yorkshire(134m asl)
  • Weather Preferences: severe storms,snow wind and ice
  • Location: Hoyland,barnsley,south yorkshire(134m asl)
5 minutes ago, Mike Poole said:

As we look for signs in the operational output rather than just the ensembles that this soggy wet dank affair is about to draw to a close, the closest signal appears to still be at T192, here GEM and GFS 12z:

image.thumb.jpg.9b9b202681458b02ba67bc55af494005.jpgimage.thumb.jpg.f45b611758b925989a5d0cf0d88bbca9.jpg

Prefer the GEM if I'm honest.  Maybe at last a change to something more settled by beginning next week.

The gem is a splendid run Mike up to 240,dry fine autumn days with some mist and fog about at night,lovely.

gemnh-0-240.thumb.png.cd30250dc85e650605854a962fff1364.png

Edited by Allseasons-si
  • Like 6
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Hoyland,barnsley,south yorkshire(134m asl)
  • Weather Preferences: severe storms,snow wind and ice
  • Location: Hoyland,barnsley,south yorkshire(134m asl)

The gfs was a cold outlier according to the gefs ens,but has support from the control.

gfs.thumb.png.32e44992a6f91b1df5b6f4d596a11285.pnggraphe_ens3_rda8.thumb.gif.4e6a5ba92a11302b8e7086f9f083146d.gif

 

  • Like 3
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Bedfordshire
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms, plumes, snow, severe weather
  • Location: Bedfordshire

Speaking of arctic blasts... 

arcticblast1.thumb.png.463ba928f06d9c4ebaac6b628f83b35f.pngarcticblasy2.thumb.png.4363d6726f9d1296e606d0c2821afe5a.png

  • Like 3
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunder, snow, heat, sunshine...
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.

Very unlikely to happen, of course, but the GEFS 12Zs provide the first real indication that winter will soon be upon us!:oldgood:

image.thumb.png.77a7631304898c646efc121955014dea.pngimage.thumb.png.cb674b24980baf3a875b2bf2afca1e67.png   

t2mSuffolk.pngimage.thumb.png.fce0adaac5e3bdbae280bd75db4e3e53.png

  • Like 7
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Camborne
  • Location: Camborne

Unsettled at the end of the week and the weekend with showery conditions and longer periods of rain as the upper low continues to drift east over the UK before becoming enclosed by the amplifying subtropical zones. This ultimately results in the low being forced south by the meridional jet

ecmwf-natl_wide-z500_anom-1486400.thumb.png.f7d8d5335b2630d4287fb567623a57f9.pngecmwf-natl_wide-z500_anom-1551200.thumb.png.2ce7253e502bc59f62d3a84848c65f59.pngecmwf-natl_wide-z300_speed-1616000.thumb.png.8c155db1cd811c94e9056c41da090286.png

120.thumb.png.762a7c5468ec5fc2851f9c0d2efa0800.png144.thumb.png.9b3e1ffa19576e70493c1a880929b10f.png168.thumb.png.c2960047238a79736da6bf9cec36d0c4.png

  • Like 2
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: just south of Doncaster, Sth Yorks
  • Location: just south of Doncaster, Sth Yorks
2 hours ago, chrisbell-nottheweatherman said:

Evening John.  Do you think the pattern change to ridging near or over the UK is indicated in the models to be a long-lasting feature as has been the case on several occasions over the past 2-3 years, especially here in the east?

I doubt it will last beyond 6-10 days, that is assuming it does happen. Beyond 2 weeks is out of my league c-n. For the 6-14 days I would be more convinced it is going to happen once/if NOAA show very similar height rises and indeed ridging as ECMWF-GFS is doing.

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North

Evening all,

The GEFS 12z mean is still on track for a more benign / pleasant last third or quarter of october across most of the uk, I'm sure any respite from all the rain would / will be welcomed by the majority!

21_246_500mb.thumb.png.32cdacfdde57acd6c7310b93e9511e56.png21_294_500mb.thumb.png.8dbfb0f74bebe216fe12b0d31fedd296.png21_318_500mb.thumb.png.add1baa7a55eb51216d15b904910e63e.png21_318_850tmp.thumb.png.32cc1141fe4b6ba79924b91e62703780.png21_342_500mb.thumb.png.7329be754bbac2481e9d415cf33ddc46.png21_366_500mb.thumb.png.407f0c0acaae3b2b1b658c8619d6a377.png

 

Edited by JON SNOW
  • Like 5
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Camborne
  • Location: Camborne
22 minutes ago, johnholmes said:

I doubt it will last beyond 6-10 days, that is assuming it does happen. Beyond 2 weeks is out of my league c-n. For the 6-14 days I would be more convinced it is going to happen once/if NOAA show very similar height rises and indeed ridging as ECMWF-GFS is doing.

There is no significant ridging on tonight's ext EPS John and it's not a million miles from NOAA

ecmwf-nhemi-z500_anom_5day-2177600.thumb.png.22cd625870360f2b5bc23a1f6f4ed4fe.png814day_03.thumb.gif.22e3da5c69fee6772385d045857b59dc.gif

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Bedfordshire
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms, plumes, snow, severe weather
  • Location: Bedfordshire

Monday morning looks like a fine morning for many areas of the UK. Parts of northern England could wake up to some bright sunshine in the morning, while other places, like southern England, Wales, Scotland and Northern Ireland, it remains unsettled for the morning. Southern England could wake up to some showers/rain, and the same goes to Wales and Northern Ireland. Scotland looks dry in the morning although there will be a risk of showers. One or two mist or fog patches are also possible during the morning. As the day progresses, the showers/rain, which started in the south of England in the morning, will gradually spread northwards into the afternoon. Wales also has the chance of catching some rain. This rain could he heavy at times. Northern Ireland will also remain wet during the afternoon, with some heavier bursts possible. The drier places should be around Scotland, where the risk of any rain or showers is low. Some places in Scotland have the chance of catching sunshine all day tomorrow. Into the evening, some heavy rain, which will start from northern France, will move northwards. This rain will be particularly heavy for parts of the south, and the odd lightning strike can't be ruled out too. The MetO have issued a yellow warning of rainfall which could lead to some problems on the roads and could potentially cause flooding in some areas. The heavy and persistent rain will clear away to the north/northeast overnight. Places like the SW/Wales/Northern Ireland also have the risk of catching some rain overnight, although it might not be heavy and persistent. Scotland once again will have the driest of weather into the evening and overnight, with a few areas of cloud possible. Even with Scotland seeing the best of the sunshine on Monday, it will remain chilly. Peak temperatures in the south will range from 9-18c, and in the north it will range from 8-13c.

FAX:

monday.thumb.png.76c2b2c886f181bd819359096d824143.pngmonday.thumb.png.3cbb1ae6a496dbcdd8a038f9e16f22e5.pngmonday0.thumb.png.18c8157139d06d2395d9148e3ed3259a.png

Jetstream:

monday1.thumb.png.a242832691a7423b14081d6fa3d4e4dd.pngmonday2.thumb.png.b5b847bde82d9dfdd7ccd4ee3e053add.pngmonday3.thumb.png.e7dc256193c223ac68198899ee45287e.png

Sea level pressure:

monday4.thumb.png.4b61d18b97129c5d28e82d46b9dde934.pngmonday5.thumb.png.d4f29a8f9677a37fcd298b41639056db.pngmonday6.thumb.png.64f974400248b0a4739e45a7d860d2ab.png

Precipitation:

monday7.thumb.png.70395b0d440dffa4260910b0dbbab8d7.pngmonday8.thumb.png.38127df20966e07a9640aaa8b3611885.pngmonday9.thumb.png.05cf3b50d79a2fd97767ab378314dd0a.pngmonday10.thumb.png.7232039b761ea3fa7ec7d5353a6632d2.pngmonday11.thumb.png.47257564df214d2e6436432034807562.pngmonday12.thumb.png.84aeb1d797c625f5f796063b2adeabe0.pngmonday13.thumb.png.05c47c7620b2073cfd89728778dbcbb3.png

Temperature (max):

monday14.thumb.png.d9dc053ac3e11449e43e38a8ef2204db.pngmonday15.thumb.png.61d02c4dbcec210406d3c126c9bf6257.pngmonday16.thumb.png.a84472648e77668b3d63f89bdaa7a06c.png

Precipitation (sref.io):

monday17.thumb.png.397e7de55a91fe5fc3228c08cd1429b4.pngmonday18.thumb.png.6a27b67d321fcc76a65470ad93dbdcb6.pngmonday19.thumb.png.d011fe1e74048f77c7e7430c959492eb.pngmonday20.thumb.png.e734fb876448247b0b1e1e9bd64ca069.pngmonday21.thumb.png.cdbc791453098c2f4377000ff9393ff9.pngmonday22.thumb.png.10a8112f5120e4e61282c516a037cff4.png

Precipitation (ECMWF model on Windy.com):

monday23.thumb.png.20e187ff47f8ba1a459e5ecd663f02d5.pngmonday24.thumb.png.9b5685dbfd01dbdb33e17d57a1b692cf.pngmonday25.thumb.png.a9f9ec335aa6c3d39c0e5026479442a8.png

Edited by Zak M
  • Like 7
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Sedgley 175metres above sea level
  • Weather Preferences: Any kind of extremes. But the more snow the better.
  • Location: Sedgley 175metres above sea level

Next weekend looking very unsettled and quite windy with low pressure literally parked on top of the UK. According to the ECM mean we should see a gradual improvement into the following week with high pressure building from the South... Temps generally around the average. Until then a fair bit of water to flow under the bridge.... If you pardon the pun.

EDM1-120.gif

EDM1-144.gif

EDM1-168.gif

EDM1-192.gif

EDM1-240.gif

graphe_ens3.png

  • Like 5
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: South Norfolk, 44 m ASL.
  • Weather Preferences: Varied and not extreme.
  • Location: South Norfolk, 44 m ASL.
1 hour ago, johnholmes said:

I doubt it will last beyond 6-10 days, that is assuming it does happen. Beyond 2 weeks is out of my league c-n. For the 6-14 days I would be more convinced it is going to happen once/if NOAA show very similar height rises and indeed ridging as ECMWF-GFS is doing.

Thanks John.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Windermere 120m asl
  • Location: Windermere 120m asl

Another very unsettled week ahead, atlantic ruling the roost, temperatures preety static as well, though a cooling trend as we end the week. Not much else to say.

Signs as we enter following week, may see a drying out some what at least in the south, with ridging having more influence, and milder conditions again.

All very normal service - such patterns can embed themselves for lengthy periods, and with hurricane season going quiet, there doesn't appear to be anything on the immediate horizon to shake things up in the atlantic - all eyes on where the PV decides to position itself later this month I feel, and its strength as this will be dominant influencing factor for November - as my expectation is the atlantic will stay preety active - but this doesn't automatically equate to wet and mild for the UK.. 

Edited by damianslaw
  • Like 3
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Hoyland,barnsley,south yorkshire(134m asl)
  • Weather Preferences: severe storms,snow wind and ice
  • Location: Hoyland,barnsley,south yorkshire(134m asl)

A bit more amplification on this run at day ten with more trough disruption west of the BI and with more WAA north toward Svalbard compared to the flatter 12z,also watch for the back door to open up as the Scandi high develops that could produce cooler air round the back(red arrows),one to watch in future runs.

gfseu-0-240.thumb.png.d1a3c6b33ccee16e4d12d9ecb70a3298.pnggfs-0-252.thumb.png.43e5ce6e4e654070b233736240ae96f9.png

yes it's looking like drying up and warming up a tad thank god,but it will be interesting what happens from here,

now this looks a bit interesting from Judah Cohan with a HP cell developing over Scandinavia

strat.thumb.png.033f93e3e477f8220d028e3f0f1c327c.png

https://twitter.com/judah47/status/1183458842404933634/photo/1?ref_src=twsrc^tfw|twcamp^tweetembed|twterm^1183458842404933634&ref_url=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.netweather.tv%2Fforum%2Findex.php%3Fapp%3Dcore%26module%3Dsystem%26controller%3Dembed%26url%3Dhttps%3A%2F%2Ftwitter.com%2Fjudah47%2Fstatus%2F1183458842404933634%3Fs%3D19

And chio has just posted recently over on the strat thread.

 

Edited by Allseasons-si
  • Like 7
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Camborne
  • Location: Camborne

The North Atlantic 500mb and surface analysis for midnight and the 03300 sat image.(the low pressure area east of southern Greenland is going to be the main influence on our weather over the coming week)

gfs-natl_wide-z500_anom-1011200.thumb.png.19f53f653dbd12cf7a6aeef34979021b.pngPPVA89.thumb.gif.5eea52500f1fa5e832eda8e4113ddf65.gif20191014_0240_sat_irbw_h.thumb.jpg.77605e84ee98b2721fa927e6dfe0602a.jpgY

Once yesterday's rain finally cleared it has been a dry night in most areas with the odd mist/fog patch but the two waving fronts (already much discussed) have already brought rain into Ireland and the south east of England  The former will bring heavy rain to N, Ireland through this morning whilst the belt of heavy rain associated with the latter will track north through the day ( perhaps the odd rumble in the south east) to be in the border area by dusk.

PPVE89.thumb.gif.3f5893be67136c7bbd5f5db091090c69.gif2mtemp_d02_20.thumb.png.26d534ecb42113a4d379397e7c3e8737.png850wind_d02_21.thumb.png.705858abc4f8ac6041377bdc952ed600.png

meanreflec_d02_16.thumb.png.032723288b07d479d1b6a577a1ab0e72.pngmeanreflec_d02_20.thumb.png.b23aa44478d388179b39a0e0578e4822.pngmeanreflec_d02_24.thumb.png.8f11dcf51b957f85e318ade5423651a2.png

The rain should clear during this evening as the main wave edges into the North Sea, resulting a relatively dry night for most areas with just some showers in western areas. The likelihood of Stratus/mist/fog patches again in many northern, eastern and central  areas.

PPVG89.thumb.gif.e1fb2ae6958e36e295921a4818283e83.gif

These might be a tad slow to clear but generally Tuesday will be not a bad day with sunny intervals with perhaps a few showers in the south west. But the upper low mentioned at the beginning has deepened and become a complex low pressure area dominating the eastern Atlantic and the associated frontal system will bring rain into N. Ireland by early evening

gfs-natl_wide-vort500_z500-1140800.thumb.png.e184e915068608428dec50d50856d5bf.pngPPVI89.thumb.gif.e119b19dfc09646dead45b1b7209d1ca.gif2mtemp_d02_44.thumb.png.20709351dfcb33fee68aa30d7e6bdfd5.png

As the main low drifts slowly east the frontal system will sweep across the country through Tuesday night and Wednesday bringing rain, with some heavy pulses, to all areas

gfs-natl_wide-vort500_z500-1227200.thumb.png.98aeeb5d64797cbbf3e12b497c0f8824.pngPPVJ89.thumb.gif.79774c8e406860c192a8abe0eea432d0.gifPPVK89.thumb.gif.5f5cd3c3d9ed840d53e172db1b34e364.gif

gfs-uk-t850_mslp_prcp6hr-1205600.thumb.png.0d7dde53db0e73358bfe3709cfc48466.pnggfs-uk-t850_mslp_prcp6hr-1248800.thumb.png.eafcdafe694cfd9289bcf892e2a87edd.pnggfs-uk-t2m_c_max6-1248800.thumb.png.ffa7df4f424c891bad14636e1fa9ed8b.png

Over Thursday and Friday the now filling low, and the wrap around occlusion, will continue to drift east so a couple of days of sunshine and showers, which could be heavy with thunder in the mix as troughs run around within the circulation and it also will be quite windy

PPVM89.thumb.gif.a44e793f7818a9b40c632c9a28460449.gifPPVO89.thumb.gif.39d0968141e9905516a25b7a731b5f33.gif

gfs-uk-t2m_c_max6-1335200.thumb.png.c410fc1e4123cf5cd9d6438aaa4f738c.pnggfs-uk-t2m_c_max6-1421600.thumb.png.f05b84c5e2e5335924e0d6ae461c4bc2.png

  • Like 8
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Camborne
  • Location: Camborne

Continuing with the gfs this is the position by midday Saturday with another trough tacking east in the NW Atlantic whilst the subtropical zones amplify encircling our trough mow nestling neatly over the UK Thus another unsettled day of sunshine and showers and quite windy

.gfs-nhemi-z500_anom-1486400.thumb.png.2b7fc6021664da35b6e00e21a9bd2455.png132.thumb.png.098d002a617a921b3636604628f7b934.png

This is really the beginning of a transition as the Atlantic pattern shifts east over the next couple of days and our trough is shunted south east. Resulting in another unsettled day on Sunday before calmer and drier conditions prevail on Monday as the ridge tales closer order

gfs-nhemi-z500_anom-1659200.thumb.png.35626624102be0ec4b5c602c523d5f3f.pnggfs-nhemi-z250_speed-1659200.thumb.png.13275d0701af65394a09dd1f1a0ad886.png180.thumb.png.b63cc3496f88f2719df554e7d7b2da48.png

Now the big question. Will the ridge keep the energy crossing the Atlantic at bay? Need to await the GEFS 8)

  • Like 5
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Camborne
  • Location: Camborne

Not resolved by the medium term GEFs although, as has been mentioned previously there is the suggestion  of height  rises over the UK, albeit with no significant ridging, suggesting a N/S split

gfs-nhemi-z500_anom_5day-2134400.thumb.png.bd8585790ca9e55399606122395748ca.png

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North

The Gfs 0z operational is showing an increasingly blocked late october with scandi height rises, it would actually feel like an Indian summer!:shok:

00_300_ukthickness850.thumb.png.bbf725925ac1dd24bac578c3f62617a8.png00_300_mslp850.thumb.png.c48d9f0049b10ebdaf98cd68f289b307.png00_300_mslp500.thumb.png.fb49ed754bf2bcfad5a58bb2cd4e7d38.png00_300_uk2mtmp.thumb.png.2b112d5bb42447cfb78b38bb1ac4f8a1.png

 

  • Like 6
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Buckinghamshire
  • Location: Buckinghamshire

A wet start for southern England yet again.. this is pushing north it seems a bit faster than expected there are various options on the table for how today pans out thunderstorm and intense rainfall wise here's the arpege for example.. Its showing heavy rain coming in but later than what is currently happening and pushes the rain through quite quickly before mid afternoon to the northeast perhaps not much development with this scenario. 

Arpege.. 

00_8_ukprecipratec.thumb.png.ee2481261527887941afd69d578b1086.png

00_19_ukprecipratec.thumb.png.052483f573ede3e079c2b8cd863c5051.png

but on the other hand three models Hirlam, Icon and Arome bring in this rain in roughly the same time as what's currently being shown on rader I personally think these three models have a better handle on this and our all showing the first batch of heavy rain moving north then downpours moving north later today later than the arpege giving a risk of thunder and really wet conditions although the Arome seems to do the same as arpege with the thundery downpours over France pushing them north east quicker. 

Dwd icon.. 

00_9_ukpreciptype.thumb.png.e5abcfa447ac42e9e31779b23dd87216.png

00_15_ukpreciptype.thumb.png.6291c16c44d514d088d2b35fcca37f25.png

Hirlam...

00_8_ukpreciptype.thumb.png.c4854e06caec2c6b4dc7adde767014fd.png

00_18_ukpreciptype.thumb.png.a824697c04de831c8f16cdac7dbf3d8c.png

Arome.. 

UK_RAIN1_8.thumb.jpg.116db08b00f24371d38ca8a8a0f03b7a.jpg

UK_RAIN1_13.thumb.jpg.85b46aa0476dff56696bbc7061b69d77.jpg

UK_RAIN1_16.thumb.jpg.b50bd56628a44b951fc6bc6da5e89322.jpg

Arpege though take the worst of any storms to the northeast into the north sea from the far southeast.. Northern Ireland getting some rain from a separate weather system which is currently moving through Ireland. Will be interesting to see how this day pans out better watch the radar closely throughout today!. :oldgood:☔?️

Edited by jordan smith
  • Like 3
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Camborne
  • Location: Camborne

The latter half of the ecm is initially along the lines of the gfs but as time goes on the new Atlantic troughs struggle with the resurgence of the subtropical high zones and end as follows. I'm merely posting the 216,240 charts to illustrate what I mean and should only be noted until the ens are available

216.thumb.png.b604a7b0ac1467d81b7764248633e24d.pngten.thumb.png.86ef03cecfe7cda872411331c11130c9.png

Edited by knocker
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Guest
This topic is now closed to further replies.
×
×
  • Create New...