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Model Output Discussion - early October


Paul
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Want to chat about the upcoming winter?
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Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North

There's something for everyone on the GEFS 12z from late Indian summer to a very early taste of winter. Looking at the mean longer term there's very good support for a more benign spell during late october but more especially across southern uk.

21_264_500mb.thumb.png.9df485930527143cce0090e6eb7f508b.png21_288_500mb.thumb.png.5417719aa8962755e5f9651b22c7e871.png0_366_850tmp.thumb.png.b379ee1e18000693dc2bf5b9c76fd03f.png0_366_2mtmpmax.thumb.png.f703e30dc3b35316a2e5e216513b3c3b.png2_366_850tmp.thumb.png.2e348b2cb8ea795dc0ba305e18f1a6e8.png10_366_850tmp.thumb.png.077008d6bf32614efb41aa0b4d4cfb76.png10_366_2mtmpmax.thumb.png.0aab3e9358c809e9e812cad9f0964fdc.png17_366_850tmp.thumb.png.a1bab7b5772d5d51a87fe321682183c8.png 

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Posted
  • Location: Bedfordshire
  • Weather Preferences: Seasonal
  • Location: Bedfordshire

By day 9/10 most models showing the Hadley (tropical high pressure) cells across the globe become bloated - as has been the trend over the last 30 years (with blips). Remarkable how much high pressure is signalled in the mid latitudes across the whole planet

This was programmed for the UK in late Sept for early October and failed. But it looks to be modelled much more convincingly this time with different models going with it and on a consistent basis

When that NOAA model, which Knocker cites, goes with something, it usually proves a good guide to roughly what will happen in the day 10+ range

Edited by LRD
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Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North

Tonight's Ecm 12z ensemble mean improves longer term as these charts show as next week's trough gradually fills in-situ and pressure rises further south, at least a north / south split gradually develops...so, following a bit of a lull early next week it becomes more unsettled for a time before some relaxation in conditions, most noticeable further s / se later.

EDM1-120.thumb.gif.b8f2793a491f79bc11770f0d98ad863d.gifEDM1-144.thumb.gif.2b5ba8a1508a70f4dddc9dd3332f2158.gifEDM1-168.thumb.gif.76df01f820cedb7e40f70b5c98504278.gifEDM1-192.thumb.gif.b7c571ccd9139ed067d9ca48fd0f11c4.gifEDM1-216.thumb.gif.ac7955f5ba8bcf4ed484f6a6688a3e2d.gifEDM1-240.thumb.gif.660f5c1369dc6a7ea37a8c1396069f11.gif

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Posted
  • Location: Bedfordshire
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms, plumes, snow, severe weather
  • Location: Bedfordshire

Monday night is something we should keep an eye out for the far SE of England. There's a small chance of a few thunderstorms that, at the moment, looks like a Kent clipper. I think it will be a Kent clipper, although the GFS seems to disagree. The GFS shows the storms developing in northern/central France mid afternoon and as how things look at the moment, they progress over the channel and make it to the south of Britain. 

storm.thumb.png.77298ee0abfe0774d93e12330898fbd9.pngstorm0.thumb.png.16b0e5918175f07cbed89a0b6ecaa52f.pngstorm1.thumb.png.1e481e5a89ad9a0d2816a572a652950e.pngstorm2.thumb.png.1bd225cd0a3558b189123e55697d1c79.png

Even if these pulses don't turn out to be thunderstorms, they will produce very heavy rain and could cause problems with flooding. 

storm3.thumb.png.b171c208115f2af36e807b1a80b217b8.pngstorm4.thumb.png.e968b7febcc0775e185691288eb7dc28.pngstorm5.thumb.png.db825b69b6273a35613682d55128a9e5.pngstorm6.thumb.png.2614e087fcff09d9c1ad5af58fc843ae.png

Personally, I don't think any of these thunderstorms will hit the UK. In fact, there probably won't be any storms at all. These storms aren't supported by much CAPE, which is one reason there probably won't be storms.

storm7.thumb.png.871e6102b5f6bc97dedfa3d02e1aa349.pngstorm8.thumb.png.1ad9d38998bf6ad6ddaa8932ea7a2af7.pngstorm9.thumb.png.6af0cd821a17a29950d74dca9cc5bf7d.png

I think Monday will be a very interesting day, both radar watching and forecasting-wise, as when a specific area where these potential storms develop will be crucial, and that the MetO and the BBC are still quite unsure what could happen on this day. As I am not a professional forecaster/meteorologist, it will be no surprise that I won't know what would happen on this day. It's best to keep an eye on the models too, as things will most likely change within the next 24 hours. Just wanted to put this out here

Edited by Zak M
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Posted
  • Location: Buckinghamshire
  • Location: Buckinghamshire
16 minutes ago, Zak M said:

Monday night is something we should keep an eye out for the far SE of England. There's a small chance of a few thunderstorms that, at the moment, looks like a Kent clipper. I think it will be a Kent clipper, although the GFS seems to disagree. The GFS shows the storms developing in northern/central France mid afternoon and as how things look at the moment, they progress over the channel and make it to the south of Britain. 

storm.thumb.png.77298ee0abfe0774d93e12330898fbd9.pngstorm0.thumb.png.16b0e5918175f07cbed89a0b6ecaa52f.pngstorm1.thumb.png.1e481e5a89ad9a0d2816a572a652950e.pngstorm2.thumb.png.1bd225cd0a3558b189123e55697d1c79.png

Even if these pulses don't turn out to be thunderstorms, they will produce very heavy rain and could cause problems with flooding. 

storm3.thumb.png.b171c208115f2af36e807b1a80b217b8.pngstorm4.thumb.png.e968b7febcc0775e185691288eb7dc28.pngstorm5.thumb.png.db825b69b6273a35613682d55128a9e5.pngstorm6.thumb.png.2614e087fcff09d9c1ad5af58fc843ae.png

Personally, I don't think any of these thunderstorms will hit the UK. In fact, there probably won't be any storms at all. These storms aren't supported by much CAPE, which is one reason there probably won't be storms.

storm7.thumb.png.871e6102b5f6bc97dedfa3d02e1aa349.pngstorm8.thumb.png.1ad9d38998bf6ad6ddaa8932ea7a2af7.pngstorm9.thumb.png.6af0cd821a17a29950d74dca9cc5bf7d.png

I think Monday will be a very interesting day, both radar watching and forecasting-wise, as when a specific area where these potential storms develop will be crucial, and that the MetO and the BBC are still quite unsure what could happen on this day. As I am not a professional forecaster/meteorologist, it will be no surprise that I won't know what would happen on this day. It's best to keep an eye on the models too, as things will most likely change within the next 24 hours. Just wanted to put this out here

Your certainly correct I touched on Mondays system earlier I think it will likely be only a heavy area of rainfall instead of anything electrical but we shall see a rather interesting outlook that's for sure. :oldgood:

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Posted
  • Location: Cobham Surrey
  • Weather Preferences: clear skies , hard frost , snow !
  • Location: Cobham Surrey

Above is interesting what a remarkable run of wet weather we are having in the south - those heavy pulses from the continent can be real rain makers not sure if it will be thundery but certainly one to watch ? !

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Posted
  • Location: Dorset
  • Weather Preferences: warehamwx.co.uk
  • Location: Dorset

A fair few models keep the worst of the rain away from the South, perhaps clipping the far Southeast. The FAX charts are broadly similar.

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Posted
  • Location: Camborne
  • Location: Camborne

The North Atlantic 500mb and surface analysis for midnight and the 0300 sat image. Apart from the obvious a couple things of interest, The trough over Greenland that is about to play a major role in our weather this week and the trailing front on the sat image which continues to be a nuisance

gfs-natl_wide-z500_anom-0946400.thumb.png.520b26fc3f48fc55a8b3c0df7f76225c.pngPPVA89.thumb.gif.073905cf3e7efb4ae7cebe094e7f1180.gif20191013_0240_sat_irbw_h.thumb.jpg.be6e77d76b9af3f6068ab506195b63ee.jpg

The wave currently forming on the front in the south will deepen and track north east through the day to be 987mb in the North Sea by 1800. The associated area of heavy rain, currently across the south west, south Wales and the midlands, will also track north to effect all areas by same time except the far north of Scotland Behind all of this a slow clearance to sunny intervals and showers, heavy in the south west, Quite windy in some areas

PPVE89.thumb.gif.8b7d69d1bbe90bbe5b89fbbd37e4e351.gif2mtemp_d02_20.thumb.png.b605424a2143807ae5278e3f3ea10c44.pngmeanreflec_d02_12.thumb.png.4c439653f54618e248b0757a1b048f06.pngmeanreflec_d02_16.thumb.png.fa8e300e2c92812baf52b98b9acade12.pngmeanreflec_d02_20.thumb.png.cef6fdd502c4485e7a11cd890a46e460.pngmeanreflec_d02_24.thumb.png.03dd532abec8398dd8724e289b80e588.png

The rain will slowly clear Scotland and the north east tonight whilst elsewhere should be clear so a ground frost and fog patches likely in some rural areas,  bur further rain will effect the south west/south by dawn

PPVG89.thumb.gif.98b9cd8e8785fca0b14ab998df3d725c.gif

As mentioned at the beginning the trailing front continues to be a nuisance and another wave on it  tracks north bringing rain to southern and central regions on Monday whilst yet another wave on a front further west will bring some heavy rain to N. Ireland Also note the trough mentioned earlier has now deepened and is an intense surface low south of the Denmark Straits

PPVI89.thumb.gif.1370784ee7d61c6027fe56b7d670ef55.gif2mtemp_d02_44.thumb.png.a42204513d243a2209b7826419c92981.pngprecip_d02_39.thumb.png.4c724af9444906a673efe713ad1e5827.pngprecip_d02_42.thumb.png.e16a49575328ed38cb9057e65e064d60.pngprecip_d02_45.thumb.png.d5369ea3821b0c95c62bea42e7ec1f98.pngprecip_d02_48.thumb.png.dbe2c305d9f89a66df9d3b430a0aca01.png

Once any early rain has cleared away Tuesday should not be that bad a day but fronts associated with the low are approaching western Ireland

PPVJ89.thumb.gif.93d874787733bdd96b3ac4af7324fda2.gifPPVK89.thumb.gif.fd17b4554cb944f173d3939367324d94.gifgfs-uk-t2m_c_max6-1162400.thumb.png.caa7a74558ef358c269afc9333694516.png

By midday Wednesday the low is 969mb (not as low as Exeter originally had it) and the fronts are traversing the country resulting in a wet and quite windy day

PPVM89.thumb.gif.87daee356e4ff1ad15e4854207fb627d.gifgfs-uk-t850_mslp_prcp6hr-1205600.thumb.png.8a757e648616a51003561658d052cc33.pnggfs-uk-t850_mslp_prcp6hr-1238000.thumb.png.5c4336062f8c1dfc60a1753ba193d96d.png

As discussed briefly in a post last evening, by now the upper low is starting to dominate the eastern Atlantic and the UK and although Thursday starts fine frontal rain will approach from the west during the afternoon.

gfs-nhemi-z500_anom-1313600.thumb.png.27bee85a29b3d7bc8221d3390701f246.pngPPVO89.thumb.gif.7653694539f7e66351ede1cb6bf63a8c.gif

gfs-uk-t850_mslp_prcp6hr-1335200.thumb.png.a555f90519bef76a9275be3a4b1316c7.pnggfs-uk-t2m_c_max6-1335200.thumb.png.78d87ed79c9b750ca4d8df0cbf589655.png

 

Edited by knocker
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Posted
  • Location: Camborne
  • Location: Camborne

If the gfs is near the money then Friday looks like being a wet and very windy day (note another trough merging with the main one) and thereafter the trough remains the influential factor over the weekend but by midnight Monday pressure from the subtropical high zones are forcing it south east

132.thumb.png.e58945d2218127ec8f26156ff4fcd092.png156.thumb.png.50ce4bd29c37b1aae9ec9268df2472dc.png180.thumb.png.623e3028f1376e5607e97c42289dbad0.png

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Posted
  • Location: Camborne
  • Location: Camborne

The GEFS still indicating losing the East Atlantic trough whilst developing one over Greenland/mid Atlantic whilst initiating height rises over the UK thus portending drier weather with temps perhaps nudging above average, The pattern has a familiar ring about it with the trough edging east against the European ridge

gfs-natl_wide-z500_anom_5day-2134400.thumb.png.264396cec3bdc56518d217b5e5e5beb4.png

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Posted
  • Location: Buckinghamshire
  • Location: Buckinghamshire

Very wet to start the day particularly for places in the west up through the west Midlands the rain finally moves away to the east but only gradually giving England and Wales one more spell of rain.

00_9_ukprecipratec.thumb.png.48770f551074f7be73a03e38c59fcd08.png

Some rain for northern Ireland too..Rain steadily clears away from all but perhaps southern and Eastern Scotland where it will linger elsewhere sunshine and heavy showers accompanied by a strong wind.

00_11_ukprecipratec.thumb.png.6ddc4d3c4b532f0d2ad9649855923d95.png

00_15_ukprecipratec.thumb.png.6b6c412a2c3a7644d157211592ae1b85.png

Turning drier tonight then the next batch of rain Is beginning to approach from France this could be thundery but more a band of heavy rain which looks to push north through southern central England becoming quite prolonged in places giving perhaps another 10-20mm on top of all the rain already seen another area of rain pushes through Ireland.

00_34_ukpreciptype.thumb.png.03257695ae878a595586f2b8a2278486.png

00_44_ukpreciptype.thumb.png.1b6f7427835d59a301389a8995560a5a.png

00_47_ukpreciptype.thumb.png.c88026a38ee81380d2e0d6862b39828e.png

Tuesday drier before more rain for Wednesday. 

00_78_ukpreciptype.thumb.png.fa2df17c41cdf500fd4120b874fb4630.png

but after that.. Looks blustery and fairly wet,next week may deliver something much drier. :oldgood:

Edited by jordan smith
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Posted
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunder, snow, heat, sunshine...
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.

Nice chart for the 23rd: lots of overnight fog (cloud permitting) with some bright, mild afternoons::oldgood:

h500slp.png   h850t850eu.png

Good rise in both SLP and T850s, going by the GEFS 00Zs:

prmslSuffolk.png   t850Suffolk.png

t2mSuffolk.png   prcpSuffolk.png

Too early to be certain, of course, but the model-runs and the background chatter both point toward a respite from all the wind and rain...

Edited by Ed Stone
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Posted
  • Location: just south of Doncaster, Sth Yorks
  • Location: just south of Doncaster, Sth Yorks

The upper air pattern is starting, especially EC-GFS, to show indications of height rises rather than the deep upper trough as the main feature. So the synoptic models showing this type in the 6-10 day period are probably showing the most likely pattern>

500 mb anomaly charts below

http://mp1.met.psu.edu/~fxg1/ECMWF_0z/hgtcomp.html

no idea why the NOAA link is showing as it is rather than its 'normal' way, anyway simply click on the www link please

Edited by johnholmes
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Posted
  • Location: Camborne
  • Location: Camborne

The ext EPS is not deviating much from what is has been indicating recently and in the same ball park as NOAA

ecmwf-natl_wide-z500_anom_5day-2134400.thumb.png.f0c85265620b2f9e79a4ec9a1c1bc1b7.png

Note there is a sharp break in the medium cloud and blue sky to west down here at the moment

PPVA89.thumb.gif.8acf147cc20e0b757195e475e26cccdd.gifCapture.thumb.JPG.1ab36e72f4c10f4c4f5058271f70e12a.JPG

Edited by knocker
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Posted
  • Location: Darlington
  • Weather Preferences: Warm dry summers
  • Location: Darlington
47 minutes ago, johnholmes said:

The upper air pattern is starting, especially EC-GFS, to show indications of height rises rather than the deep upper trough as the main feature. So the synoptic models showing this type in the 6-10 day period are probably showing the most likely pattern>

500 mb anomaly charts below

http://mp1.met.psu.edu/~fxg1/ECMWF_0z/hgtcomp.html

no idea why the NOAA link is showing as it is rather than its 'normal' way, anyway simply click on the www link please

All links have gone like that now I think it must be some update to the forum that did it

You can get a normal link in your post by clicking the bar that pops up as shown below and that will get rid of the big preview box that appears

Untitled.thumb.png.1a0dd09007f901dbdbcaaee8c25d241e.png

Edited by Summer Sun
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Posted
  • Location: Bedfordshire
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms, plumes, snow, severe weather
  • Location: Bedfordshire

Monday night, at the moment, still looks very interesting. The MetO have issued a warning for heavy rain on Monday night. The GFS hourly shows the heavy rain reaching NW France by the afternoon and travelling to parts of S/SW England by the late afternoon. 

storm3.thumb.png.54e053e8553d470feded1894e0edba74.pngstorm4.thumb.png.1d88e44ce5b5976f5b968e7f4e1fce1e.pngstorm5.thumb.png.5e939970a30b5a60b05971f7f0234ce9.pngstorm6.thumb.png.2f2a1a16e8385675958cf9330d845b7b.png

The WRF-GFS on sref.io shows the rain, not too heavy at the time, reaching NW/N France. By the evening, the rain looks like it will start to pick up over the channel and become increasingly heavy. The rain spreads into S England before it travels away to the NE/E. 

storm.thumb.png.375c72c804823fbcea30abafac03f9dc.pngstorm0.thumb.png.f2d3b82020f032422b495e93e7b0ccd0.pngstorm1.thumb.png.38f038d178a398c1277322b18853f27c.pngstorm2.thumb.png.cd173ddf3dcd29789959a54e8024dd81.png

Where the heavy rain does occur, it will cause problems on the roads and could lead to flooding. In terms of lightning strikes, referring to my last post, the risk of lightning will be very low but I think if there will be any lightning strikes, they will be sporadic. If you're under the rain/storm, the temperature would range from 9-13c, so the lightning shouldn't be frequent.

storm7.thumb.png.261dffd8692ab1fd3c87d76219f96b7e.pngstorm8.thumb.png.6aab35ddb92373e75c1bdc38b7f45431.pngstorm9.thumb.png.5dc9fb3f984971f5d5dd76472c3c6fa0.pngstorm10.thumb.png.d63bf0cd5595011119d64b74cfad2a52.png

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Posted
  • Location: South Norfolk, 44 m ASL.
  • Weather Preferences: Varied and not extreme.
  • Location: South Norfolk, 44 m ASL.
7 hours ago, johnholmes said:

The upper air pattern is starting, especially EC-GFS, to show indications of height rises rather than the deep upper trough as the main feature. So the synoptic models showing this type in the 6-10 day period are probably showing the most likely pattern>

500 mb anomaly charts below

http://mp1.met.psu.edu/~fxg1/ECMWF_0z/hgtcomp.html

no idea why the NOAA link is showing as it is rather than its 'normal' way, anyway simply click on the www link please

Evening John.  Do you think the pattern change to ridging near or over the UK is indicated in the models to be a long-lasting feature as has been the case on several occasions over the past 2-3 years, especially here in the east?

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Posted
  • Location: South Norfolk, 44 m ASL.
  • Weather Preferences: Varied and not extreme.
  • Location: South Norfolk, 44 m ASL.
3 hours ago, Ed Stone said:

Another one for fog-fans?h500slp.pngh850t850eu.png

It's sure sayin' something, when the only piece of excitement comes from a fog patch!?️

It would give us here a period in which to dry-out slightly, but I'll admit to not being much of a fan of the idea of a Bartlett High getting too well-established heading towards winter...

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Posted
  • Location: Hoyland,barnsley,south yorkshire(134m asl)
  • Weather Preferences: severe storms,snow wind and ice
  • Location: Hoyland,barnsley,south yorkshire(134m asl)
1 minute ago, chrisbell-nottheweatherman said:

It would give us here a period in which to dry-out slightly, but I'll admit to not being much of a fan of the idea of a Bartlett High getting too well-established heading towards winter...

It shows sighs of retrogressing west further on in the run,now that would be interesting,just one run and completely different to the 06z but i would welcome the drying out process.

gfsnh-0-336.thumb.png.ad6428e9029ac3e8b4f3f0b12f634338.png

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Posted
  • Location: South Norfolk, 44 m ASL.
  • Weather Preferences: Varied and not extreme.
  • Location: South Norfolk, 44 m ASL.
Just now, Allseasons-si said:

It shows sighs of retrogressing west further on in the run,now that would be interesting,just one run and completely different to the 06z but i would welcome the drying out process.

gfsnh-0-336.thumb.png.ad6428e9029ac3e8b4f3f0b12f634338.png

Potential for a polar maritime blast, then?

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