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Model Output Discussion - early October


Paul
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Posted
  • Location: Canmore, AB 4296ft|North Kent 350ft|Killearn 330ft
  • Location: Canmore, AB 4296ft|North Kent 350ft|Killearn 330ft
57 minutes ago, Ed Stone said:

Well, well, well. The first of the season's BOOM charts has appeared!:yahoo:

h850t850eu.png   h500slp.png

It won't happen, of course, but it's more interesting than reality: GEFS 00Z ensembles:

prmslSuffolk.png   t850Suffolk.png

t2mSuffolk.png   prcpSuffolk.png

Calm down, everyone -- it's another example of the GFS Operational's tail-end flapping!

Give me that in January with -10 850's...but in October with -5 850's, meh lol. However - much more exciting that the present dross IMO.

Edited by CanadianCoops
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Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North

My opinion of the longer term GEFS 0z is that on balance we are heading towards a more benign late october, it could even be warm with winds from the south or southeast. As for the reliable / semi-reliable timeframe it's looking generally unsettled but there is a tendency towards more of a north / south or northwest / southeast split as time goes on, the Extended Ecm 0z ensemble mean shows that too.

Edited by JON SNOW
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Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North

Looking at the Gfs 6z operational, high pressure certainly plays second fiddle for most of the run with a predominantly unsettled / cyclonic outlook with spells of wind and rain followed by sunshine and showers and separated by occasional transient ridging / suckers gaps between atlantic systems, there's even a few short-lived cooler shots from the NW along the way. Towards the end of the run high pressure is in the ascendancy so a more benign late october becomes more of a possibility.

Edited by JON SNOW
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Posted
  • Location: Clacton-on-Sea, Essex
  • Location: Clacton-on-Sea, Essex
2 hours ago, CanadianCoops said:

Give me that in January with -10 850's...but in October with -5 850's, meh lol. However - much more exciting that the present dross IMO.

From an IMBY perspective that would provide a bit of interest.... -5 850's over a warm north sea, add a bit of instability and it's a nice recipe for thundery hail showers on the coast

 

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Posted
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunder, snow, heat, sunshine...
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.

Nae quite so much potential in this morning's GEFS 06Z ensembles, but some quite intense showers around northern and eastern coasts can't be ruled out...?⛈️

h500slp.png   h850t850eu.png

But, little or no support for the Operational. Quelle surprise?

t850Suffolk.png   prmslSuffolk.png

t2mSuffolk.png   prcpSuffolk.png

Though, it wouldn't take too big a drop in T850s to cause one to amend one's guess!

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Posted
  • Location: Camborne
  • Location: Camborne

I imagine everyone is familiar with the current analysis so I'll skip any extraneous comment and pop straight to the nitty gritty. A complex trough to the west' a continuation of showers over western Scotland and pulses of rain along the slow moving waving front in the south

vort.thumb.png.a8c4223cd64977759d2096ae209862d4.pngPPVA89.thumb.gif.63736d243e8a7c9b24131310d00fffed.gifPPVE89.thumb.gif.1b3a96fe9f55a904b1d23ab852cd83b5.gif

meanreflec_d02_12.thumb.png.bc441935114ea42231e676a057a4b31a.pngmeanreflec_d02_16.thumb.png.67c2f286a9b5edefbd3decc1b2113509.pngmeanreflec_d02_20.thumb.png.837b732856dfc945d228ba368a8dfcf0.pngmeanreflec_d02_24.thumb.png.2a6bd122995b225bf717d8d0c26bd099.png

Edited by knocker
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Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North

The GEFS 6z mean indicates a more benign last week or so of october, at least away from the far NW...  here's something for the coldies too, especially our friends in scotland, a little snaw on P16....  very much on it's own but a nice little arctic shot all the same... at least a reminder that winter is coming!❄

16_306_850tmp.thumb.png.8a62a1320f72ebd853416890310e0a46.png16_318_2mtmpmax.thumb.png.4b998121b0462ae0cccd02af066a5f40.pngsnow_318_ps_slp.thumb.png.af19848b5c209e3198437d2b8a0c3aa0.png21_318_500mb.thumb.png.8d03897bc69b3a92af17363041182819.png21_372_500mb.thumb.png.dbf0eea2edc76d77e1e0c873cc5d1636.png

Edited by JON SNOW
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Posted
  • Location: South Norfolk, 44 m ASL.
  • Weather Preferences: Varied and not extreme.
  • Location: South Norfolk, 44 m ASL.
2 hours ago, knocker said:

gfs-japan-t850_mslp_prcp6hr-0881600.thumb.png.daa1de7d19b1ddb9a2edbc01ef294ad8.png

Is Japan supposed to be under there?!:cc_confused::oops:

Edited by chrisbell-nottheweatherman
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Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
4 minutes ago, chrisbell-nottheweatherman said:

Is the UK supposed to be under there?!:cc_confused::oops:

Think it's Japan

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Posted
  • Location: South Norfolk, 44 m ASL.
  • Weather Preferences: Varied and not extreme.
  • Location: South Norfolk, 44 m ASL.
57 minutes ago, JON SNOW said:

Think it's Japan

Corrected - I hadn't seen the previous part of the thread at that point.:drunk-emoji:

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Posted
  • Location: Bedfordshire
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms, plumes, snow, severe weather
  • Location: Bedfordshire

Heading into the weekend, Saturday looks like a wet, miserable day for some parts of the south. On Saturday morning, parts of the south are already covered in rain, which could get heavy and persistent in some places, and will travel NE through the day. Parts of Wales and Northern England could escape from all the rain, but will wake up to cloudy skies. Northern Ireland and Scotland once again in the morning will be treated to scattered showers, some heavy. In the afternoon, it's literally the same picture, with heavy, persistent rain in the south, cloudy skies in Northern England with the chance of catching an odd shower, and scattered showers in the North. Into the evening and overnight on Saturday, the heavy, persistent rain in the South travels northwards, with the north being lead to a much greater chance of catching heavy rain overnight. Scotland and Northern Ireland once again will be treated to some scattered showers. Peak temperatures in the south will range from 11-14c, and in the north it will range from 7-13c.

Temperature (max):

weekend.thumb.png.321274ef8e26a606570dc102cc116f61.pngweekend0.thumb.png.1367b3418bcc1dc328a640ff8a47a552.pngweekend1.thumb.png.1c976a2092049a3f5fd80f5100aab514.pngweekend2.thumb.png.acefd1c95bf43455014ce292e10728c1.png

FAX:

weekend3.thumb.png.f5a479c8be3e789baf90c96352ce0602.pngweekend4.thumb.png.6a4087a40ae51d40f5db478c8d6f43fc.pngweekend5.thumb.png.6831b91125ac13e1e3f298d3110be4d8.png

Jetstream:

weekend6.thumb.png.baa10723cfdca23d5462bb454eb84792.pngweekend7.thumb.png.4adc5b7dfd2416fb461adbabf78a3e60.pngweekend8.thumb.png.121b46ec8fb64e4b7b239ba595d8f93e.png

Precipitation (netweather):

weekend9.thumb.png.a880d5aa43e7940284ac521651e3862a.pngweekend10.thumb.png.1faaec1c37a24ea2849d4d7d440081d4.pngweekend11.thumb.png.994ae9a64e14269bf44f434f2830b8d3.png

Precipitation (sref.io):

weekend12.thumb.png.226ca47bde645c4bb815e39643a919df.pngweekend13.thumb.png.b1808cbafc879d2e90e0f02294b4a847.pngweekend14.thumb.png.96b1d77dff27edce678f2c6ffe656525.pngweekend15.thumb.png.d0b3ccb68109701c0762e1c471f750ef.pngweekend16.thumb.png.3655a7d37ac3f89b969cf3c6a7171ee7.pngweekend17.thumb.png.836edbf0b090da05f1eeed4fe159246a.pngweekend18.thumb.png.dad04c278d839f1cee55e4fafb0909c3.png

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Posted
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunder, snow, heat, sunshine...
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.

The GFS12Z Operational certainly ends on a spiffing note!:oldgrin:

h500slp.png   h850t850eu.png:yahoo:

But, as per usual, the Op is merely one run among a heap of scatter!

prmslSuffolk.png   t850Suffolk.png

t2mSuffolk.png   prcpSuffolk.png

 

Edited by Ed Stone
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Posted
  • Location: Buckinghamshire
  • Location: Buckinghamshire

the hirlam model in my view has the best handle on the frontal wave across southern parts I'm going to use this model for this system a wet evening and night to come with perhaps 20mm or so falling in some places by dawn tomorrow.. 

12_7_ukpreciptype.thumb.png.b792cfd85344a8400efa046291f20ee2.png

12_11_ukpreciptype.thumb.png.b0aefc0ab29de666e81970ceb4b7a861.png

12_16_ukpreciptype.thumb.png.2fe085a203ed62dccf34b6382420fdde.png

12_21_ukpreciptype.thumb.png.62a1eb4dcb7b15b939645ee53f3b4dc3.png

12_29_ukpreciptype.thumb.png.6726d6e43dc9a28379efae803a1ac97c.png

12_36_ukpreciptype.thumb.png.4cb87b9fa202f243445cb896d704fc43.png

rain is then shown to be confined to the far south for a few hours then early afternoon tomorrow see's the rain push back north through tomorrow night and through much of Sunday very cool underneath all the rain perhaps 30-45mm of rainfall by the time it pulls away drier for northern parts but still sunshine and showers.. 

12_48_ukpreciptype.thumb.png.4017dffaaefa27ddc93f1f529c9904c3.png

12_48_uktemp.thumb.png.a983e7f0a896b29fe0342f07755df791.png

Some toasty temperatures in the near continent may be a little warm in the far southeast perhaps by sunday afternoon if cloud breaks.. ?️

Edited by Mapantz
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Posted
  • Location: Oyne Aberdeenshire 120m asl
  • Weather Preferences: SNAW
  • Location: Oyne Aberdeenshire 120m asl
9 minutes ago, Allseasons-si said:

The 12z gefs control isn't without interest with a nice Scandi high and a possible undercut to the trough in the Atlantic,all speculative...yes:whistling:

gensnh-0-1-384.thumb.png.dfe4dd8c4f0563ebaa1f3a7b4311c908.pnggensnh-0-0-384.thumb.png.94a0f00349d60d6696bda9f209c808d4.pnggensnh-0-5-384.thumb.png.42e70e9c67a8b7fe344ea232921a4425.png

 

Ramp.... we have a thread for that.... very nice charts tho and i do hope that we see much more of it during the coming winter months.

Edited by bigsnow
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Posted
  • Location: Camborne
  • Location: Camborne

Interesting to note this evening how the formation of the wave on the main front, and the subsequent track north east, as well as the developing  parallel weaker trough is tied in with the restructuring of the upper trough to the west

ecmwf-natl_wide-vort500_z500-0881600.thumb.png.1db6ac9dee09802ab30b8cd89df0fc03.pngecmwf-natl_wide-vort500_z500-0924800.thumb.png.6591f5478cfd23c8c847f3c5c451b9c0.pngecmwf-natl_wide-vort500_z500-0968000.thumb.png.12a38bcaa547a7a3694af050419b75ce.png

PPVE89.thumb.gif.f6e1cb6c28ec7d4487c7c8d91f529232.gifPPVG89.thumb.gif.0faaa8393efb88bf992dea013dc2c011.gifPPVI89.thumb.gif.97e70ce2866f60e73e9a7ed9e3a279f5.gif

Edited by knocker
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Posted
  • Location: Sedgley 175metres above sea level
  • Weather Preferences: Any kind of extremes. But the more snow the better.
  • Location: Sedgley 175metres above sea level

At long last we see a light at the end of the tunnel for at least something drier towards next weekend perhaps, the ECM mean shows up this possibility this evening... Nothing to cold or wintry showing at present, but hey... There's plenty of time for that..... Would be nice to see a more settled spell though, giving the literally continuous rainfall these last few days. 

EDM1-168.gif

EDM1-192.gif

EDM1-216.gif

EDM1-240.gif

graphe_ens3.png

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Posted
  • Location: Hoyland,barnsley,south yorkshire(134m asl)
  • Weather Preferences: severe storms,snow wind and ice
  • Location: Hoyland,barnsley,south yorkshire(134m asl)
3 minutes ago, Mattwolves said:

At long last we see a light at the end of the tunnel for at least something drier towards next weekend perhaps, the ECM mean shows up this possibility this evening... Nothing to cold or wintry showing at present, but hey... There's plenty of time for that..... Would be nice to see a more settled spell though, giving the literally continuous rainfall these last few days. 

 

I hope this comes off as i too want drier days as my lawn is looking like a jungle at the moment hiding all the :oops:,and i need to replenish the fence with a lick of paint

looking at the latest from cpc there does look like a trough lifting out with gradual heights taking hold later on,lets see what happens.

610day_03.thumb.gif.ea2cebcc67d41bcc03fc91b0cfe446ba.gif814day_03.thumb.gif.ce3a2d1615d88455547c3eb1edecb612.gif

 

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Posted
  • Location: Dorset
  • Weather Preferences: warehamwx.co.uk
  • Location: Dorset

If you take umbrage with posts, please use the report button rather than dragging it up in here?!

Thanks. 

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Posted
  • Location: Santry, Dublin, Ireland. 50 metres ASL.
  • Location: Santry, Dublin, Ireland. 50 metres ASL.
24 minutes ago, Mapantz said:

If you take umbrage with posts, please use the report button rather than dragging it up in here?!

Thanks. 

Good grief. Mid October and you have to do this already. We will need a John Bercow "ordeeerrrrr" tab at this stage.

Nothing to speak of that has changed too much now. Autumnal for the foreseable is the safe bet! 

 

 

Screenshot 2019-10-11 at 23.15.49.png

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Posted
  • Location: Camborne
  • Location: Camborne

The North Atlantic 500mb and surface analysis for midnight

gfs-natl_wide-z500_anom-0838400.thumb.png.73577fa983d0d418953de2a35f64744c.pngPPVA89.thumb.gif.393ad086e9533a0216a3312b622303ec.gif

The main band of rain associated with the trailing fronts is currently over the south west of England and through the day the fronts will not move a great deal, ergo the south remaining cloudy with rain perhaps with the odd heavier pulse Further north not a bad day with lighter winds but the showers will continue over north west Scotland

PPVE89.thumb.gif.23ba72ae00cc8f00f4bb7ea13c58e429.gif2mtemp_d02_20.thumb.png.002e58df5485bd4ad7f0e09d95aa27b4.png

By now developments to the west are underway (covered in a post last evening) and the fronts start to track north east with the main front developing a wave resulting in the rain belt(s) doing the same and becoming more intense at the same time and by dawn there is heavy rain across Wales and central England

PPVG89.thumb.gif.3f5e1c733fa092a5f80e64d4c528ace9.gifprecip_d02_30.thumb.png.3b3eace0950544362c696d7cafdfa1e1.pngprecip_d02_37.thumb.png.03b0bb0feb775c4e47a577131c788386.png

The fronts, and wave, continue north east through Sunday as the pattern develops with the persistent rain not really clearing the east coast until late afternoon but more showery rain will effect N. Ireland and other western regions, courtesy of a stray occlusion/ The movement of the trough does drag some warmer air up in the south east

gfs-natl_wide-vort500_z500-0968000.thumb.png.634224aa4f415a2a662b528b8b43cddb.pngPPVI89.thumb.gif.2b9690e1cad740d21347fcdab69836d7.gif2mtemp_d02_44.thumb.png.72c86c34ce2af735726fb7d8e3b676d8.png

precip_d02_40.thumb.png.cdb00ab8aad732c24129c5ea6f93dd5e.pngprecip_d02_44.thumb.png.35ae3d8c47c8e54137f66851c22f7b32.pngprecip_d02_48.thumb.png.c5b79a50a3a7ae3a44ff2744fd9d2fb4.png

By Midday Monday another intense upper low has tracked into the Atlantic via Greenland and the surface low is 979mb south west of Iceland. Meanwhile the UK is pretty much in a holding pattern with a nasty looking feature over the Brest peninsular. A day of showers and sunny intervals

gfs-natl_wide-vort500_z500-1054400.thumb.png.19fb547fcf109addf8dcbb321cc10b20.pngPPVJ89.thumb.gif.5400201f3afd9f74584d8c90662594a3.gifPPVK89.thumb.gif.00051324c10dbb0de333e4d280601698.gif

The little low over Brest tracks quickly north east over Monday night bring rain to south east England but the mayor development are in the Atlantic where the low deepens rapidly and is 948mb south of Iceland by midday Tuesday with the associated fronts and heavy rain along the west coast of Ireland

gfs-natl_wide-vort500_z500-1140800.thumb.png.6e49870008ddbf6f1ba38f465a6c9833.pnggfs-natl_wide-z250_speed-1140800.thumb.png.9fd1afdbc2e415fc18700f5f1cbd5368.pngPPVM89.thumb.gif.50ed480e5a21c094a663c73b47f31fa2.gif

gfs-uk-t850_mslp_prcp6hr-1097600.thumb.png.cf0966b2196a087a1b64a8250fe3fd33.pnggfs-uk-t850_mslp_prcp6hr-1162400.thumb.png.96214c34b5b752c2cdfef15276cb8140.pnggfs-uk-t2m_c_max6-1162400.thumb.png.5150cd58af819b234e5700176a21a465.png

By Wednesday the low has moved little, nestling as it is between the subtropical high ridges but the fronts continues to track across the country bringing rain to most areas before clearing to the east

gfs-natl_wide-vort500_z500-1227200.thumb.png.6df861c1f9e00083c39dfeea55380595.pngPPVO89.thumb.gif.c2c0e4101bb499c22141481c968a897a.gifgfs-uk-t2m_c_max6-1248800.thumb.png.7efa397527fc4ea17b2e3a38a36fc8d3.png

Edited by knocker
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Posted
  • Location: Camborne
  • Location: Camborne

For the next five days the European ridge and the trough centred near Iceland remain the dominate features so continuing unsettled

gfs-nhemi-z500_anom_5day-1702400.thumb.png.fdf2fb5233d97faba88010bd5cc1a027.pnggfs-uk-t2m_c_anom_5day-1702400.thumb.png.97f2679ce84b4018dc86e5f3eadaec37.png

But this morning's GEFS mean anomaly in the medium range continues to weaken the Iceland trough with the Atlantic subtropical high taking closer order whilst a new trough arrives in the west. This at least should indicate some drier weather although probably tending to a N.S split

gfs-nhemi-z500_anom_5day-1961600.thumb.png.175084810c60f3c0f8a2db419c78a587.png

Edited by knocker
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