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Model Output Discussion - early October


Paul
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Posted
  • Location: Leeds/Bradford border, 185 metres above sea level, around 600 feet
  • Location: Leeds/Bradford border, 185 metres above sea level, around 600 feet

Although it won't do anything more than provide a cool night both the Euro and GFS at days 8-10 actually try to disrupt a low over the UK due to the formation of a high over western Russia. GFS is more successful (Euro sinks the high) but it's interesting to observe this early in the season. 

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Posted
  • Location: Camborne
  • Location: Camborne

There are signs with the EPS mean anomaly this evening of a quite rapid de-amplification in the Atlantic at the end of the ten day period with the trough weakening in the east. No drastic change in our weather initially although the very unsettled period for the next few days should certainly ease a tad.

663672014_3-8at.thumb.png.fecddb4196b34f7017973f3524ea8dad.png591242507_5-10at.thumb.png.3a92d9daec2ea2b5afebbf672e3fdb84.png

This theme continues in the ext period so although we are still looking at a zonal upper flow, this is weakening and the subtropical high is taking closer order, Still changeable weather but portending a N/S bias

478556332_9-14a.thumb.png.126b6b775cc81cb6d3d2e971ae8119aa.png

Edited by knocker
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Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North

From little acorns...very much on its own but hopefully a hint of things to come as winter draws closer!!?️

15_378_850tmp.thumb.png.ad994e3d5bf946d0db90599cab239e89.png

Edited by JON SNOW
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Posted
  • Location: Buckinghamshire
  • Location: Buckinghamshire

Perhaps Saturday drier for a time for central England and Wales after earlier rain clears to the south but the far south it could stay pretty wet for much of Saturday elsewhere showers but also some drier slots too.. 

Arpege.. 

12_44_ukprecipratec.thumb.png.26467016bad29e06ff96053289a4f5f5.png

12_49_ukprecipratec.thumb.png.b30b36432051781febd1a1dcc300bf7e.png

12_52_ukprecipratec.thumb.png.01b9a050684327bf13b6ef4cc726e9fc.png

Then the rain comes back north giving wet weather for much of the country on Sunday, Monday perhaps a decent drier day compared to what was shown previously..

12_93_preciptype.thumb.png.a2b81d726afb49934c91e6266cc98b94.png

12_99_ukpreciptype.thumb.png.12457d8aafe85695a7c8b4025da53aef.png

not a complete deluge like the models and my previous posts have shown.

12_51_uk2mtmp.thumb.png.13c852ced682dbabb41dc880ae7fb4e5.png

825574333_12_75_uk2mtmp(2).thumb.png.971b7cf81d5f680b1be7c96932cc9db3.png

Quite cool too for the next few days.. Stays unsettled next week but drier interludes too. 

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Posted
  • Location: Camborne
  • Location: Camborne

A quick glance at the latest EC46 for the last week of October and first week of November. I appreciate the more knowledgeable on here dismiss it but it may be of interest to some

The vortex is pretty diffuse over the Arctic and northern Canada so although there is still westerly upper flow across the Atlantic it is relatively weak and any meaningful toughing has disappeared as positive anomalies creep into the frame. Thus with weak low pressure to the NW the subtropical can exert a tad more influence which would suggest a much drier period, certainly than of late with temps around average

ecmwf-natl_wide-z500_anom_7day-2566400.thumb.png.ce758e5b9b95733f40ad39c39713eda8.pngecmwf-natl_wide-z500_anom_7day-3171200.thumb.png.328eebe0e951726c0934282847314107.png

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Posted
  • Location: portsmouth uk
  • Weather Preferences: extremes
  • Location: portsmouth uk

although ecm is not heading the same way as gfs yet.

mild wet windy north.

might be a little dryer in the far south mild to warm possibly.

ECM1-216.thumb.gif.cd35fa8a7527072dcc2808e84f763bbe.gif

but with such a erratic pattern almost impossible to call any forecast beyond 5 to 7 days.

mjo still hanging around phase 1 to 8 these phase 8 and 1 were helpful in 09/10 for northern blocking.

but for now we must sit back and watch how rigorous the polar vortex gets.

at the moment looks like its ramping up.

but even so an interesting winter coming up. 693661409_ECM1-240(1).thumb.gif.5a4373486070437c320bae857cc0dd73.gif 240 ecm zonal.

 

 

Edited by MR EXTREMES
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Posted
  • Location: Camborne
  • Location: Camborne

The wave train continues apace in the latter half of the ecm so continuing unsettled but perhaps the trough weakening and shifting a tad courtesy of the strong European ridge. The net result below

ecmwf-nhemi-z500_anom_5day-1616000.thumb.png.acd51353b712c5407fa9863ab98c4b2c.png

I also note that the thread has once again become the ramping thread

 

Edited by knocker
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Posted
  • Location: Cleeve, North Somerset
  • Weather Preferences: Continental winters & summers.
  • Location: Cleeve, North Somerset
1 hour ago, jordan smith said:

This would certainly give us an autumnal chill

 

EUROPE_PRMSL_ZERO_384.jpg

EUROPE_PRMSL_ZERO_372.jpg

And on the same dates as last October’s cold spell! Saturday 27th was particularly cold and wet.

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Posted
  • Location: Buckinghamshire
  • Location: Buckinghamshire
3 minutes ago, MP-R said:

And on the same dates as last October’s cold spell! Saturday 27th was particularly cold and wet.

Just from the east this time instead of the north ☺️ anyway looking really wet this weekend in the south certainly lots to keep an eye on. ?️

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Posted
  • Location: Camborne
  • Location: Camborne
1 hour ago, ICE COLD said:

How has it become the ramping thread ? Because a few including myself posted about the back end of the GFS op run . It shows cold it’s gonna get mentioned because it’s not showing the norm (ie mild , wind and rain ) . 

Because posting the odd  chart a fortnight away from the gfs with the accompanied cold eulogies, such as you yourself made, with absolutely no context is ramping in my book. My understanding was that there was now a thread for this but obviously I have got this wrong once again

Quote

Ready steady GO . The chase for the Beast from the east begins

 

Edited by knocker
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Posted
  • Location: Camborne
  • Location: Camborne

The EPS mean anomalies this morning are still looking to lose the troughing in the eastern Atlantic around the overlap at the end of the ten day period into the ext. Thus by the latter the upper flow is much weaker with positive anomalies being the order of the day and the subtropical high taking more notice with low pressure to the north west. Portending a drier period albeit leaning towards a N/S bias

9-14.thumb.png.2e4d592801131abf96514bbef87cccba.pngecmwf-natl_wide-mslp-1832000.thumb.png.62c73ecb0fb051a3f40310135090026a.png

 

Edited by knocker
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Posted
  • Location: Buckinghamshire
  • Location: Buckinghamshire

Icon and gfs both showing substantial amounts of rainfall today and this weekend with upto 50-60mm locally 20-40mm more widely for England and Wales. 

Dwd icon.. 

00_69_ukprecipacc.thumb.png.3fc9f5a592e08d73ef3c0f159f9be262.png

GFS.. 

66-777UK.thumb.gif.f9171f83871291a78d05b809036707aa.gif

The GFS ten day accumulated rainfall based on the midnight run shows really high rainfall totals pretty widely particularly again for England and Wales but also a fair amount in other places too. 

234-777UK.thumb.gif.bbc7744c916335a4bf335596458de99c.gif

Signs of higher pressure having more influence after 10 days but that's a long way off and likely to change. ?️

Edited by jordan smith
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Posted
  • Location: Crymych, Pembrokeshire. 150m asl
  • Weather Preferences: Extremes of all kinds...
  • Location: Crymych, Pembrokeshire. 150m asl
13 minutes ago, jordan smith said:

Icon and gfs both showing substantial amounts of rainfall today and this weekend with upto 50-60mm locally 20-40mm more widely for England and Wales. 

Dwd icon.. 

00_69_ukprecipacc.thumb.png.3fc9f5a592e08d73ef3c0f159f9be262.png

GFS.. 

66-777UK.thumb.gif.f9171f83871291a78d05b809036707aa.gif

The GFS ten day accumulated rainfall based on the midnight run shows really high rainfall totals pretty widely particularly again for England and Wales but also a fair amount in other places too. 

234-777UK.thumb.gif.bbc7744c916335a4bf335596458de99c.gif

Signs of higher pressure having more influence after 10 days but that's a long way off and likely to change. ?️

Looking outside, I think we're getting most of our share of that rain this morning!  Not sure when 'showers' officially become 'longer periods of rain' or even 'persistent rain' but we havnt had a break all morning so far.  However, it's comforting to know that Bournemouth is predicted to be even wetter than Pembrokeshire over the next 10 days - you won't see that happen very often (sorry, Bournemouth - but it's not just you!).  The models are certainly not showing much dry weather in the reliable future, if you live in the south west or west of the UK.  

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Posted
  • Location: Buckinghamshire
  • Location: Buckinghamshire
23 minutes ago, Sky Full said:

Looking outside, I think we're getting most of our share of that rain this morning!  Not sure when 'showers' officially become 'longer periods of rain' or even 'persistent rain' but we havnt had a break all morning so far.  However, it's comforting to know that Bournemouth is predicted to be even wetter than Pembrokeshire over the next 10 days - you won't see that happen very often (sorry, Bournemouth - but it's not just you!).  The models are certainly not showing much dry weather in the reliable future, if you live in the south west or west of the UK.  

It's certainly been a long time since rainfall totals like these have shown widely in a long time.

Edited by jordan smith
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