Model Output Discussion - early October

[Methuselah]

Will it be warm and sunny? No! Will it be cold and snowy? No! Will it be the usual October grot?

   

   

The man from the 12Z, he say YES!

[knocker]

A quick look at the trough and associated Arctic plunge The feature in the Hudson Bat area is the one that tracks west and disrupts the block.

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Edited October 9, 2019 by knocker

[Frosty.]

I haven't given up on the chances of a cold incursion or two this month, neither it seems has the GEFS!!

[knocker]

No surprise that the latter half of the ecm run remains unsettled with temps generally around the average with the NW/W regions baring the brunt

[Zak M]

Thursday looks like a fine morning for the majority of the UK, with the exception once again going to Scotland, where in the morning, they will be treated to heavy, blustery showers. As the day progresses, SW England, S England, East Anglia and Northern parts of the UK should stay dry into the afternoon, with some hazy sunshine. Parts of Southern England should stay dry too. During the afternoon, a band of rain will travel NE, hitting Northern Ireland first, and hitting Scotland and parts of Nothern England later in the afternoon. Some heavy bursts are possible in this band of rain. SW/S/E England will also have a chance of getting some rain later in the afternoon. If it does reach SW/S/E England, the rain should be patchy. Later in the evening, behind the heavy rain, some heavy showers are possible for parts of NW England, Northern Ireland and Scotland. The peak temperatures should range from 10-16c in the south, and 7-13c in the north.

FAX:

Precipitation:

Temperature (max):

Sea level pressure:

Jetstream:

[knocker]

The North Atlantic 500mb and surface analysis for midnight  As can be seen the eastern Atlantic and UK are under a complex low pressure area and one way or tother this will remain the case for the next week or so

Apart from the frequent showers over western Scotland most areas will have dry and clear start to the day and this will remain the case for eastern and some central areas for much of the day. But the next frontal system will quickly bring cloud, and then rain, into N. Ireland and the main band of this moderate rain will track NE across Scotland during the day with a lighter bend following suite across England and Wales a tad later.

The rain will clear Scotland giving way to frequent showers but a couple of fronts are straddled across north Wales and southern England so rain could continue and pep up in these areas.and NW England. Also very windy along some western and southern coasts

Friday best summed up as wet and windy with the rain concentrated more over Wales and the north of England, and perhaps winds reaching gale force along western and southern coasts Quite a marked temp spread

By Saturday the evolution of the pattern that has previously been discussed is well underway and the upper trough is now very elongated with a slight positive tilt. Still a windy and showery day, mainly down western regions but there is a waving front lurking in the Channel which tracks north bringing rain to southern regions late afternoon and through the evening

 By Sunday more adjustments to the configuration of the trough are being made to the west but the main issue is the development of the wave on the front which results in a very wet day for Wales and England.

By Monday low pressure once more dominates the Atlantic and a new low with associated occlusion will bring more rain and strong winds to south west regions whilst the wave continues to effect the south east.

Edited October 10, 2019 by knocker

[knocker]

From this point I'm not too keen to get wrapped up with detail but just to mention that the gfs does develop another low over Fronce in the early hours of Tuesday and then moves it north

And taking the mean anomaly over the next five days sees the upper trough nestling neatly between the two amplifying subtropical highs. Guess where

 

Edited October 10, 2019 by knocker

[knocker]

You can get an idea how the detail becomes a tad elusive in this sort of pattern as the ecm agrees more with the last fax chart and tracks a low in from the west, with more general rain across the country on Monday . Thus no developing low tracking north on Tuesday but another frontal system encroaching on Wednesday

And a familiar 5-10 NH profile

[knocker]

Cs progressively invading the sky here

[Jordan S]

Morning! Still looking very wet for the weekend but the position of the front is important as to whether England and Wales see a very wet Saturday or a drier one courtesy of a quasi-stationary weather front (very slow moving) lying across England and Wales the dwd Icon model for example has the front lying through southwestern England to Northern England giving a wet day tomorrow with rain across the far south too with a drier slot in between. Then the main band sinks south and basically stalls for southern parts and Wales develops waves on it which stops it from clearing and continues to push heavier rain in all the way through until Monday when everything starts to shift north and east but showing 30-50mm of rain across a good swathe of England and Wales more for Wales perhaps.

The arpege though on the other hand gives a wet day Friday (tomorrow) then pushes the front through a lot quicker with actually the bulk of Saturday dry for England and Wales bar the odd spot of rain before finally pushing rain northwards during Sunday into Monday..

A pretty big difference but going by the GEM, ECM, GFS it seems the icon has much more support hence more confidence in a very wet Saturday and Sunday at times very mild too but won't feel it under all the wet weather.

The outlook remains very unsettled there doesn't seem to be any sign of sustained settled weather for a while atleast..

[Methuselah]

Again, not a very exciting set of GEFS 00Z ensembles. Though, it is October!

   

   

But...as Boris might say: 'καλύτερα να το πάρετε με ένα τσίμπημα αλατιού.'

[Jonathan Rhodri Roberts]

GFS 0z showing the heaviest/most persistent rain to be pushing further east during the week ahead so Ireland would become much drier and perhaps much less rain falling than recently across parts of Wales and SW England once we get through this wet weekend

[mb018538]

No signs of anything settled on the horizon still. Since that nice warm weekend around the 21st September the weather has been really poor, lots of wind and rain. 

As is usual for the UK, the troughs tend to last a lot longer than the ridges. With 15/21 ensemble members having a stronger than normal PV in the next couple of weeks, it doesn't look like any lasting settled weather is on the way.

[Frosty.]

Looking at the GEFS 0z mean there's still a brief window of opportunity for a colder Polar / Arctic maritime shot between say days 9 / 11.

Edited October 10, 2019 by JON SNOW

[mb018538]

Just as you think things may be slowing down and relaxing a bit by day 9...

By day 11 & 12 things are looking very poor again:

[Methuselah]

23 minutes ago, JON SNOW said:

Looking at the GEFS 0z mean there's still a brief window of opportunity for a colder Polar / Arctic maritime shot between say days 9 / 11.

But it's a very small window, karl: 

T+315:    

[Methuselah]

Another ensemble set that doesn't really inspire...?

   

   

Maybe it's time to read page 2 of Pride and Prejudice...? Naah -- it's nae that bad!

[NorthernRab]

1 hour ago, Ed Stone said:

Another ensemble set that doesn't really inspire...?

   

   

Maybe it's time to read page 2 of Pride and Prejudice...? Naah -- it's nae that bad!

But in the north, a few slightly more interesting options beginning to at least appear in the mix towards the month's end?

[knocker]

The low currently WNW of Ireland will drift east through this evening and overnight to be west of the outer isles by 0600. The associated triple poinet and fronts will zip east on the strong upper wind to be Oslo by same time,But the waving cold front is left trailing across the center of the country with another further south and this will have rainfall impacts

This evening the band of rain over Scotland will clear early evening to be followed by another spell of rain and then heavy showers over NW and central Scotland where it will also be quite windy. Further south the more patchy rain progress east but come late evening more persistent rain will effect firstly north Wales and the south west courtesy of the aforementioned fronts, The pulses of rain which will be heavy at times as they move east along the fronts during the rest of the night and tomorrow morning.

Edited October 10, 2019 by knocker

[knocker]

The gfs has Hagibis more or less in the same position as the JMA on Saturday and then it briefly peps up the North Pacific jet

Edited October 10, 2019 by knocker

[MATTWOLVES 3]

Not  a washout by any means for all parts over the weekend, early rain clearing to showers on Friday, Saturday looking decent for Central areas at least, Sunday looks like becoming very wet, and the unsettled spell continues into next week!!!! Sighhh...... Couple of ensembles to lighten the mood... One for the more colder lovers, and one for the early taste of spring brigade... 

[Zak M]

If anyone lives in Wales, NW England or Scotland, a warning has been issued by the Met Office for rainfall. This band of rain that is expected to reach SW Wales/SW England in the morning, and gradually spreads east. As it does so, some heavy bursts could linger for quite some time, which could lead to flooding. In the afternoon the band of heavy, persistent rain should arrive in Scotland in the afternoon, once again, causing problems on the roads.

 

Edited October 10, 2019 by Zak M

[I remember Atlantic 252]

like your updates Zak, they're good, especially for me as a dry weather fan, but do you not mean gradually spreads east?

[Zak M]

11 minutes ago, I remember Atlantic 252 said:

like your updates Zak, they're good, especially for me as a dry weather fan, but do you not mean gradually spreads east?

Thanks. Yes, that's what I meant, sorry about that. 

[Methuselah]

I'm ready for either the last burst of heat or the first blast of cold...neither of which, unfortunately, looks likely; today's GEFS 12Z ensembles are not very exciting?