Jump to content
Snow?
Local
Radar
Cold?
IGNORED

Model Output Discussion - early October


Paul
Message added by Paul

Want to chat about the upcoming winter?
Please head to the winter speculation and chat thread.

Recommended Posts

Posted
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunder, snow, heat, sunshine...
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.

Again, the GEFS 12Z ensembles are nae very exciting...But some foggy nights will boost the OFI a bit?

t850Suffolk.png   prmslSuffolk.png

t2mSuffolk.png   prcpSuffolk.png

Whilst the building blocks are falling into place, it'll be standard October fayre, I guess...?:oldgrin:

  • Like 7
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Camborne
  • Location: Camborne

The ecm 5-10 anomaly is not entirely unexpected with the main energy flow running south of Greenland, above the ridge, to the trough in the eastern Atlantic. Ergo unsettled

ecmwf-nhemi-z500_anom_5day-1227200.thumb.png.02410a33dc201e97852ef3fe71fff518.png

Edited by knocker
  • Like 4
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Buckinghamshire
  • Location: Buckinghamshire
18 minutes ago, JON SNOW said:

Just going through the GEFS 12z members there's a feeling we could be looking at an Indian summer during mid / late October..as things stand!

0_366_850tmp.thumb.png.7ee34e316bcfcc1762ed7f4f36af4adf.png2_366_850tmp.thumb.png.0ac8432e5d54d6651c63eb73d835df34.png3_366_850tmp.thumb.png.c9b04b8e3d6482b8f695f8f30f69d1dc.png2_366_2mtmpmax.thumb.png.1149a65f4de57963b92f091eeb7284f1.png5_366_850tmp.thumb.png.bd8e3a1bdc32e66b213b5e19927663f9.png6_366_850tmp.thumb.png.de00eef5d63f62cc9f62bba8ba15ab6b.png9_366_850tmp.thumb.png.b5cbda57408a7b9abaef153d5457e3e2.png9_366_2mtmpmax.thumb.png.dd6752875d1a04d94e67eb66571cce9b.png9_366_500mb.thumb.png.fb0c7404932e495a75621bedf5328c7a.png

Certainly tended to shift from the quite wintry output of a few days ago just shows how October can be a month of quite stark contrasts. 

  • Like 6
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Camborne
  • Location: Camborne

The EPS anomalies are pretty much as expected with a fairly amplified Atlantic becoming a tad more zonal in the ext period Portending unsettled with temps initially above average in the south but becoming average

5-10.thumb.png.73bef8759a3d8aefac091f4241936ba0.png9-14.thumb.png.e1523ec9ee426e67430e5b4028590a58.png

temp.thumb.png.ba52852c4c90e78d81375de1774fa5ca.pngindex.thumb.png.d9053ad1693d10ba10ea633847c27565.png

NOAA actually retains some amplification in the ext period with the trough remaining fairly well established in the eastern Atlantic.

610day_03.thumb.gif.e7ed355e917d773bb45d076546fea8fc.gif814day_03.thumb.gif.108cb9bbedb63d1c90f3c32de228cf6d.gif

Edited by knocker
  • Like 7
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Camborne
  • Location: Camborne

Over the weekend the conduit across Greenland becomes established resulting in the east Atlantic trough getting a boost and ensuring the UK remains within a very unsettled low pressure regime, the details of which are probably best left for the moment

gfs-nhemi-z500_anom-0881600.thumb.png.7eb2e1c234a3ce3e9cbd8b615de3a6e1.pnggfs-nhemi-z500_anom-0968000.thumb.png.e8ca8d77b96b854c9b6799d7d458f98e.pnggfs-nhemi-z300_speed-0968000.thumb.png.6782ff17170343e05018a8be3bf8af41.png

  • Like 7
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Camborne
  • Location: Camborne

The ext GEFs indicating only slight relaxation of th trough influence in the eastern Atlantic. Perhaps becoming more of a northern bias vis the inclement weather and rainfall distribution does seem to indicate some quite large accumulations over western Scotland, particularly the outer Isles

gfs-natl_wide-z500_anom_5day-1616000.thumb.png.d06126903c145c8154e320a9f2d883b9.png

Edited by knocker
  • Like 7
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Buckinghamshire
  • Location: Buckinghamshire

Quite an interesting similarity with what the gfs output is showing for around the 15th October compared to a certain other weather event.. Elongated low around the bay of biscay which then heads North northeast rapidly develops gives the south east in particular severe gales then goes into the north sea.. just thought it was something worth mentioning. Anyway more on topic definitely another unsettled week on the way could turn very wet next weekend from a persistent waving front? We shall see... ☔

EUROPE_PRMSL_186.thumb.jpg.9a9f7aaed8e33576f414f4d7c537ad4f.jpg

EUROPE_PRMSL_198.thumb.jpg.cc3cc5ffcceb736b3a664a87bf15f06f.jpg

EUROPE_PRMSL_204.thumb.jpg.9832e4f53f454bc489309e25c94be078.jpg

The waving front.. 

00_123_preciptype.thumb.png.457c7a17691ef0f3585e5b7f038aa10b.png

00_144_preciptype.thumb.png.6e3e5c3477bf51fb76b894c31c0bfdb4.png

00_159_preciptype.thumb.png.170e6efa26537cc468c98fcc13d16998.png

  • Like 4
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunder, snow, heat, sunshine...
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.

BOOM! Nice charts...shame about the date!:hi::oldgrin:

h500slp.png   h850t850eu.png

And, anywho, nothing really stands out, from today's GEFS 00Z ensembles:

prmslSuffolk.png   t850Suffolk.png

t2mSuffolk.png   prcpSuffolk.png

  • Like 4
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
  • Weather Preferences: Heavy disruptive snowfall.
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
2 minutes ago, weirpig said:

When does the Met office  Glossea  forecast for the winter period update   isnt  it around this date?.  

At some point this week it will update.

  • Like 4
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon
  • Weather Preferences: Hot, cold!
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon
3 minutes ago, weirpig said:

When does the Met office  Glossea  forecast for the winter period update   isnt  it around this date?.  

Usually around the 10th of the month.

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Cambridge, UK
  • Weather Preferences: Summer > Spring > Winter > Autumn :-)
  • Location: Cambridge, UK

The current spell of weather is why I don't usually get too unduly worried about lengthy dry spells. Let's face it - we aren't in California, the rain will always come back sooner or later with a vengeance....I.e June or the last 2-3 weeks. The Atlantic can't be held off forever....looks like no way out of this rut until the last 10 days of October at the earliest now.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunder, snow, heat, sunshine...
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.

I'm getting a feeling of deja vu...It's as if we've been looking at charts just like these, since last May...?

h500slp.png   h850t850eu.png :oldgrin:

  • Like 5
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Cambridge, UK
  • Weather Preferences: Summer > Spring > Winter > Autumn :-)
  • Location: Cambridge, UK

ec-ens_nat_z500scenarios_2019100700_360.

ECM clusters right out to day 15 hold no real hope of a pattern change. Atlantic/westerlies to dominate for quite a while longer yet folks. With the PV really starting to fire up we could be into full autumn mode. Sadly the predicted changes of a few days ago aren't going to materialise. 

  • Like 4
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunder, snow, heat, sunshine...
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.

As is often the case during October, the GEFS 06Z ensembles hardly set the pulse racing:

t850Suffolk.png   prmslSuffolk.png

t2mSuffolk.png   prcpSuffolk.png

  • Like 5
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Bedfordshire
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms, plumes, snow, severe weather
  • Location: Bedfordshire

Tuesday morning looks like a fine start for many, with some decent sunshine around in the morning for parts of Northern England, Eastern England and Southern England. The exception goes out to the West of England/Wales, in which they could be treated to some heavy showers to start the day. Scotland and Northern Ireland also see a scattering of showers to start the day. As the day goes on and into the afternoon, some showers over Western/Central/Eastern could develop, some of these could be heavy and perhaps thundery. Some of these showers could also turn squally and blustery. Not a good day for Wales and the SW which have the chance for some heavy showers all day. Also the majority of Scotland and Northern Ireland could be treated to a scattering of heavy and blustery showers. Temperatures in the south could range from 13-17 celsius, and in the north could range from 8-15 celsius.

Sea level pressure on Tuesday:

tuesday.thumb.png.e335cffeee26bc9831e04f105eb6576b.pngtuesday0.thumb.png.d27e7f56d98b4b849ff073e3eee1656e.pngtuesday1.thumb.png.ff2f5d9224c4d1505c89515f855253f3.pngtuesday2.thumb.png.133c8b475946db011de60b5cad1c23be.png

Jetstream on Tuesday:

tuesday4.thumb.png.8cf1fc50dd002191febfe3cb81590688.pngtuesday5.thumb.png.155614ecdad33e0e7430eebb8c0aaf20.pngtuesday6.thumb.png.7b3c64814cadd2aea3f0da3ab6f6960f.png

Precipitation amounts on Tuesday (netweather):

tuesday7.thumb.png.4d64c3135755ca88aa5d23ad59091eb0.pngtuesday8.thumb.png.d95be1996a6e6582a82a69f169611f34.pngtuesday9.thumb.png.0d2a8e51f0749a49162028ae5378865b.png

Precipitation amounts on Tuesday (sref.io):

tuesday10.thumb.png.78f2bdfc842b489a8b2b8ab1fbd7d3af.pngtuesday11.thumb.png.c10eb455a84ab73713ec74acae84e011.pngtuesday12.thumb.png.43923afbf0c85642ad7c7587d9b0eefa.pngtuesday13.thumb.png.7789501773df898eebf611b7326e1eab.png

  • Like 8
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: portsmouth uk
  • Weather Preferences: extremes
  • Location: portsmouth uk

interesting ukmo tonight.

all models do struggle with such a flip to a mobile situation,

but the ukmo has one of them classic shallow heights vs chunks of low pressure being thrown out by the ever strengthening vortex.

unsettled and continuous forecasters nightmare.

 but wet windy is certainly the dominant pattern.

925954341_UW144-21(1).thumb.gif.3821dc860b70da7147069a2db1ade87c.gif

  • Like 4
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Guest
This topic is now closed to further replies.
×
×
  • Create New...