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Model Output Discussion - early October


Paul
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Posted
  • Location: Crewe, Cheshire
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, storms and other extremes
  • Location: Crewe, Cheshire
3 minutes ago, johnholmes said:

A sensible comment as what may happen in the coming winter has nothing to do with what happens in October.

Agree. I've done some posting over in the 'will we get another run of winters like...' thread

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Posted
  • Location: Sedgley 175metres above sea level
  • Weather Preferences: Any kind of extremes. But the more snow the better.
  • Location: Sedgley 175metres above sea level

All this talk of cold has got me watching Rocky 4...lovely siberian blizzards... The ECM op looks pretty chilly come day 10,and the ensembles and mean are most definitely showing a cooling off and a general dropping away... Long may it continue, the normal caveat applies.... Namely, its still very early to be getting to excited.... Still good to see all the same, here's hoping to something a bit special this year! 

ECM1-240.gif

ECM0-240.gif

graphe_ens3.png

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Posted
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
  • Weather Preferences: Heavy disruptive snowfall.
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
1 hour ago, johnholmes said:

A sensible comment as what may happen in the coming winter has nothing to do with what happens in October.

I disagree that what happens in October doesn't affect the winter, it must do, just that a cold October doesn't mean a cold winter, thats all, it must affect it in some way. On the first of october, the pressure pattern is at a given point and then evolves due to the laws of physics, ie- Thermodynamics, Coriolis effect, Solar output etc, yes it isn't as predictable as we would like at that range but it is wrong to say it has no effect.

Edited by feb1991blizzard
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Posted
  • Location: Derbyshire Peak District. 290 mts a.s.l.
  • Weather Preferences: Anything extreme
  • Location: Derbyshire Peak District. 290 mts a.s.l.
36 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

I disagree that what happens in October doesn't affect the winter, it must do, just that a cold October doesn't mean a cold winter, thats all, it must affect it in some way. On the first of october, the pressure pattern is at a given point and then evolves due to the laws of physics, ie- Thermodynamics, Coriolis effect, Solar output etc, yes it isn't as predictable as we would like at that range but it is wrong to say it has no effect.

The problem with this theory is that the pressure pattern at any given point in October is subject to so many thousands of interactions and influences from diverse meteorological and atmospheric conditions that it is diluted to no more than random 'noise' after a couple of weeks and can therefore no longer be said to be influential. Enough from me as this is drifting a long way off topic. 

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Posted
  • Location: Cambridge, UK
  • Weather Preferences: Summer > Spring > Winter > Autumn :-)
  • Location: Cambridge, UK

Still a disappointing outlook in the next 7-10 days - generally unsettled.

However...

By day 10 onwards the main core of the PV is predicted to migrate away from it's usual home over Greenland and to our NW, and the AO/NAO is predicted to tank sharply negative...perhaps a small chance of something slightly wintry in places into the last 10 days of the month? Very early in the season, but it's happened before.

image.thumb.png.b002a635dd87db30d8b035796fe330ec.pngimage.thumb.png.ee09c23163f9fced29f36e098f082b8a.pngimage.thumb.png.00dc9e7952d7aa3cc4932b2755bf1666.png

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Posted
  • Location: Scouthead Oldham 295mASL
  • Location: Scouthead Oldham 295mASL

Poor runs for anyone wanting some dry weather this morning- esp the further NW one heads..

As i feared, the emerging block nowhere near strong enough to hold and with HP across S Europe, the lows stick in the vicinity of the UK,yuk.

image.thumb.png.510b18a98e1a0e714f9880f533045c2b.png

image.thumb.png.7e2f41f7ce2ee922958fa9d04b90ba84.png

image.thumb.png.24e4403533dc4bcf0681f8218d883ba4.png

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image.thumb.png.f8264bc4e31d0fa3b3d6181fae76325d.png

image.thumb.png.717876456d223adc92ac8f95384a5b32.png

Thats the EC 00z run.

Here are GFS acc rainfall for the next 10 days..

image.thumb.png.80677dfc325ec5e2b73073d59a450c06.png

As alluded too, wetter the further NW one heads,

We are getting to the point were we really do need a break from incessant   wind and rain in many parts of the north.

Edited by northwestsnow
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Posted
  • Location: Warsaw, Poland. Formerly London.
  • Weather Preferences: Four true seasons. Hot summers and cold winters.
  • Location: Warsaw, Poland. Formerly London.
10 hours ago, Terminal Moraine said:

The problem with this theory is that the pressure pattern at any given point in October is subject to so many thousands of interactions and influences from diverse meteorological and atmospheric conditions that it is diluted to no more than random 'noise' after a couple of weeks and can therefore no longer be said to be influential. Enough from me as this is drifting a long way off topic. 

Yes exactly.  And I strongly recommend that everyone on this forum with a genuine interest in how weather prediction works should read up on chaos theory and weather. That and have an understanding of the second law of thermodynamics. Two sources here to get you started. Apologies for slightly off topic mods.

https://www.encyclopedia.com/environment/energy-government-and-defense-magazines/chaos-theory-and-meteorological-predictions

 

 

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Posted
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunder, snow, heat, sunshine...
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.

Well, here's an energy-saving pattern::yahoo:

h500slp.png   h850t850eu.png

However, as the 00Z GEFS ensembles show...like the cold ones before it, it almost certainly won't happen.:oldgrin:

prmslSuffolk.png   t850Suffolk.png

t2mSuffolk.png   prcpSuffolk.png

PS: Agree 100% with the entropic/chaotic/thermodynamic arguments posted above.:oldgood:

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Posted
  • Location: Buckinghamshire
  • Location: Buckinghamshire

Back on topic Sunday looks very wet in some areas particularly the central spine of the country into Eastern England some places may see 40-50mm of rain from the band of rain that sort of gets stuck in Eastern areas.. Something to keep an eye on perhaps? Most of that rain would still be pretty useful in East anglia but not for northern England as this chart and the arpege are alluding to being very wet. Details will change as always. ☔00_54_ukpreciptype.thumb.png.a3d11b1c47ce839bce96e1ce00f76683.png

00_63_ukpreciptype.thumb.png.c3edb2f4a8aaaf407f476483fd165de3.png

00_63_ukprecipacc.thumb.png.6e9995c5481be8efcf4f436db84fa10b.png

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13 hours ago, Steve Murr said:

October 81 was very blocked due to the downwelling of a very very warm stratosphere - this has enough impact to impact the troposphere into Dec - ( note the red block mid Dec ) 

1785142E-FBF2-4C44-938B-0BD2D2F6048E.thumb.jpeg.1c48ba670eb504d72123a8ef479bb9ef.jpeg

This is probably unlikely. The geopotential anomaly plot shows the combined effects of virtual temperature in the stratosphere and all the levels of the troposphere below. In this instance it does indicate a warmer stratosphere, but looking at all the charts shows that in the 1980s there was a positive stratospheric anomaly more or less every summer, many stronger than 1981. In the 1990s it is more mixed around the average, whilst since the millenium there has been a persistent negative anomaly. This is consistent with the recorded stratospheric cooling as expected from global warming and greenhouse theory.

With regards to December, note there was a SSW on December 4th.

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Posted
  • Location: Sedgley 175metres above sea level
  • Weather Preferences: Any kind of extremes. But the more snow the better.
  • Location: Sedgley 175metres above sea level

Yes Karl, that was a concern for me moving towards mid month!! Most of the ensembles are on the warmer side of things!! Not to worry, its still only early Autumn. Anyhow, here's one from p6.... Something a little colder.... Straw clutching, very much so... But I like it.. 

gens-6-1-336.png

gens-6-0-348.png

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13 hours ago, Terminal Moraine said:

The problem with this theory is that the pressure pattern at any given point in October is subject to so many thousands of interactions and influences from diverse meteorological and atmospheric conditions that it is diluted to no more than random 'noise' after a couple of weeks and can therefore no longer be said to be influential. Enough from me as this is drifting a long way off topic. 

 

2 hours ago, Seasonality said:

Yes exactly.  And I strongly recommend that everyone on this forum with a genuine interest in how weather prediction works should read up on chaos theory and weather. That and have an understanding of the second law of thermodynamics. Two sources here to get you started. Apologies for slightly off topic mods.

https://www.encyclopedia.com/environment/energy-government-and-defense-magazines/chaos-theory-and-meteorological-predictions

 

 

 

This is weather vs climate.

 

13 hours ago, johnholmes said:

I have to disagree feb, no one hasever shown any statistical correlation between October and subsequent winters. All that fits is that it gets colder from1 October into meteorological winter. That work/research applies to the main weather centres or any amateur work that has been done down the years

If looking only at UK weather or climate maybe, but obviously there have been many studies which have demonstrated statistical correlations between October circulation patterns and the following winter.

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Posted
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunder, snow, heat, sunshine...
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
4 minutes ago, Interitus said:

If looking only at UK weather or climate maybe, but obviously there have been many studies which have demonstrated statistical correlations between October circulation patterns and the following winter.

That maybe so, inheritus; it maybe not...but why has no-one yet been able to convert those correlations into a useful weather-forecasting technique?

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Posted
  • Location: just south of Doncaster, Sth Yorks
  • Location: just south of Doncaster, Sth Yorks
12 minutes ago, Interitus said:

Once again, this is weather vs climate! 

I'm not sure I follow what you mean. The original post suggested a link between 'weather' in October to 'weather' the following winter. I responded that there was, as yet, no reliable link.

weather not climate.

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Posted
  • Location: South Norfolk, 44 m ASL.
  • Weather Preferences: Varied and not extreme.
  • Location: South Norfolk, 44 m ASL.
4 hours ago, Ed Stone said:

 

 prcpSuffolk.png

Wet on Sunday would seem to be the view supported by all ensemble members in addition to the control and operational runs.

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Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North

The Gfs 12z operational opens the door to the Arctic during mid month, Scotland bears the brunt of it with widespread frosts and some ice / snow but it does turn colder everywhere for a time. Looking at next week it's an unsettled spell with wet and windy weather at times, the longer range GEFS 12z mean also indicates unsettled / cyclonic with a mixture of milder / cooler members and a few following the operational with polar /  arctic maritime incursions, there isn't much indication of anything settled for any length of time, just transient in nature and mainly across the S / SE.

I should also mention this sunday, it's looking like a very wet day for the east with local flooding following all the recent very wet weather..there are yellow be aware warnings already issued for that.

12_252_mslp500.thumb.png.c24c1c9345cca00fb5a9cc287859197b.png12_264_mslp850.thumb.png.71b8bb7ccac86b98eba1704b7b603fbf.png12_276_preciptype.thumb.png.c706a30f58d86782fe574724f972d139.png12_288_ukthickness850.thumb.png.7e3b31e7554726719655e794a89890e4.png12_288_uk2mtmp.thumb.png.ebc9fc6d680fbec1cdfeae2219baa133.png12_300_ukthickness850.thumb.png.0a8d25d9791215d8ae86dc252b3b7531.png12_300_uk2mtmpmin.thumb.png.ddf6f168235152252b5ea3dd5323c98d.png

Edited by JON SNOW
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Posted
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunder, snow, heat, sunshine...
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.

And the GEFS 12Z ensembles indicate a steady decline in temperatures. But that's hardly surprising, given the time of year!:oldgrin:

t850Suffolk.png   prmslSuffolk.png

t2mSuffolk.png   prcpSuffolk.png

I bet I'm nae the only one becoming impatient for winter to get underway...??️

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Posted
  • Location: Camborne
  • Location: Camborne

Now that Lorenzo has faded away, a brief ridge on Saturday before fronts associated with deep Atlantic trough, which may well have helped us dodge a bullet, will traverse the country Saturday night.

ecmwf-natl_wide-vort500_z500-0298400.thumb.png.9b8d5905cbec78bdf691279c369bd9fb.png48.thumb.png.037f6a4413805e2af6f0d9c25a29bdb3.png

But note the new trough that has entered the fray, courtesy of strong ridging over NE North America,  and the surface low undergoes explosive cyclogenesis near the left exit of a very strong jet, due essentially to the strength of the subtropical ridge in the vicinity of the the UK.

ecmwf-natl_wide-vort500_z500-0320000.thumb.png.151e9113ddd1fbbe60aabd0e818a1ea3.pngecmwf-natl_wide-vort500_z500-0406400.thumb.png.453f0c0c046a0fa62b470aad078a6926.pngecmwf-natl_wide-z300_speed-0406400.thumb.png.f824dbefbb29bb25bcaa6b755018e508.png

All of this results in a couple of wet and windy days Mon/Tues

90.thumb.png.1da77e33f2e6c3412384febe6a7273d9.png114.thumb.png.c6151fca26f4f7fc17f90bca2091edfb.png

The latter half of the run is dominated by the aforementioned height rises in NE North America and a trough in the eastern Atlantic thus continuing unsettled with temps a tad below average

ecmwf-nhemi-z500_anom_5day-1011200.thumb.png.8ea6985a0b80d52058ff1a00fa37323d.pngecmwf-eur-t2m_c_anom_5day-1011200.thumb.png.a10a641af6df4e8ad977ae6b9cd74ada.png

Edited by knocker
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