Arctic Sea Ice - 2019/2020 Refreeze Season

[Don]

Although saying that above, parts of the south and south west had fairly significant snowfalls at the end of January into early February this year without a BFTE!

[Thundery wintry showers]

1 hour ago, Don said:

So, I guess we are going to have to rely more and more on easterlies for our cold/snowy outbreaks rather than northerlies now?  As Beast from the Easts are increasingly rare these days (2018 being an exception), it looks pretty grim for snow lovers?

In the long run I think yes, but I think it will be a slow and erratic process, as it would seem that for every X amount of warming in the Arctic, our northerlies only warm by a very small fraction of that amount.  I reckon we'd probably need at least another 2 to 3C of global warming, even taking into account the Arctic amplification, to make it close to impossible to get widespread lowland snow from a northerly, and probably close to 5C of global warming to nuke those rare but intense "Beasts from the East".  After all as you mention in your next post we managed to get widespread snow (even including an instance of lying snow here in Exeter) in late January/early February this year, from air masses that weren't originating from the east, or even from particularly far north.

I can foresee Britain continuing to get widespread lowland snow from northerlies throughout the next half-century, but with the frequency of northerlies that are cold enough gradually becoming fewer and further between, and increasingly outnumbered by the northerlies that just bring rain.  The same goes for easterlies too, as while the coldest easterlies tend to be colder than the coldest northerlies, the majority of our easterlies are also pretty marginal for snow.

There is a chance that we might not warm by enough to make it impossible to get widespread lowland snow off a northerly, because the amount of warming that we'd need for that would be likely to have destructive knock-on effects in various parts of the world, notably including the Arctic itself, hopefully spurring humans into action to try and avoid dangerous levels of climate change. 

Edited October 26, 2019 by Thundery wintry showers

[Geordiesnow]

12 hours ago, Thundery wintry showers said:

 

I recall looking at the 1995 Arctic melt season (which at the time saw one of the two lowest minimum extents on record, the other being 1990) and sea ice was slow to form on the Eurasian side of the Arctic because of persistent strong southerly winds in that region in late September.  However, as soon as the southerlies abated, the ice quickly reformed and by 20 October a large majority of that region had iced over.  Things have clearly changed a lot up there since then!

Which is what happened in 2018 hence the late minimum and slow initial refreeze all because of an extreme ridging patterns on the Pacific side of the basin during September and early October but that changed and refreeze was fast as ice melted late on on the Pacific side of the basin. Only the laptev was super warm last year. 

Makes you wonder where on earth we would be now if we had those patterns. Conversely 2018 refreeze would be much faster if we had the same weather patterns this Autumn. 

[Lettucing Gutted]

20 hours ago, Thundery wintry showers said:

In the long run I think yes, but I think it will be a slow and erratic process, as it would seem that for every X amount of warming in the Arctic, our northerlies only warm by a very small fraction of that amount.  I reckon we'd probably need at least another 2 to 3C of global warming, even taking into account the Arctic amplification, to make it close to impossible to get widespread lowland snow from a northerly

Even with a "slow" warming of our northerlies, it won't take much more warming to wipe out proper cold months, cold seasons and cold years.  These are already as rare as hens teeth as it is.  Our last proper cold January was back in 2010, our last proper cold February was back in 1996, our last proper cold March was back in 2013, our last proper cold April was back in 1989, our last proper cold May was back in 2013, our last proper cold June was back in 1991, our last proper cold July was back in 2011, our last proper cold August was back in 2014, our last proper cold September was back in 2015, our last proper cold October was back in 1993, our last proper cold November was back in 2016 and our last proper cold December was back in 2010.  Our last proper cold spring was back in 2013, our last proper cold summer was back in 2011, our last proper cold autumn was back in 1993 and our last proper cold winter was back in 2012/2013 and our last proper cold year was back in 2010.

Edited October 27, 2019 by Lettucing Gutted

[Gray-Wolf]

I'm concerned that deep icelandic lows can source, in rapid order, air from the Greenland summit allowing for big snow showers of goose down flake size Atlantic snows as the air masses brush over us?

[cheeky_monkey]

On 27/10/2019 at 03:56, Lettucing Gutted said:

Even with a "slow" warming of our northerlies, it won't take much more warming to wipe out proper cold months, cold seasons and cold years.  These are already as rare as hens teeth as it is.  Our last proper cold January was back in 2010, our last proper cold February was back in 1996, our last proper cold March was back in 2013, our last proper cold April was back in 1989, our last proper cold May was back in 2013, our last proper cold June was back in 1991, our last proper cold July was back in 2011, our last proper cold August was back in 2014, our last proper cold September was back in 2015, our last proper cold October was back in 1993, our last proper cold November was back in 2016 and our last proper cold December was back in 2010.  Our last proper cold spring was back in 2013, our last proper cold summer was back in 2011, our last proper cold autumn was back in 1993 and our last proper cold winter was back in 2012/2013 and our last proper cold year was back in 2010.

Here where i am things are rather different...currently in a run of 9 below average months in a row..just had one of the coolest and wettest summers on record..Feb 2019 was the 3rd coldest on record and the coldest since 1939..Sept 2018 was the coldest on record and winter 2017-18 had the longest run of sub zero temperatures on record.

Edited October 28, 2019 by cheeky_monkey

[Coopsy]

On 27/10/2019 at 09:56, Lettucing Gutted said:

Even with a "slow" warming of our northerlies, it won't take much more warming to wipe out proper cold months, cold seasons and cold years.  These are already as rare as hens teeth as it is.  Our last proper cold January was back in 2010, our last proper cold February was back in 1996, our last proper cold March was back in 2013, our last proper cold April was back in 1989, our last proper cold May was back in 2013, our last proper cold June was back in 1991, our last proper cold July was back in 2011, our last proper cold August was back in 2014, our last proper cold September was back in 2015, our last proper cold October was back in 1993, our last proper cold November was back in 2016 and our last proper cold December was back in 2010.  Our last proper cold spring was back in 2013, our last proper cold summer was back in 2011, our last proper cold autumn was back in 1993 and our last proper cold winter was back in 2012/2013 and our last proper cold year was back in 2010.

So 8 months of the year and 3 of the 4 seasons have had a 'proper cold spell' within the last 10 years - I'd say statistically that's actually good isn't it? 

Edited October 28, 2019 by CanadianCoops

[Geordiesnow]

2 hours ago, Gray-Wolf said:

I'm concerned that deep icelandic lows can source, in rapid order, air from the Greenland summit allowing for big snow showers of goose down flake size Atlantic snows as the air masses brush over us?

I honestly can't tell if this post has a sence of humour attached to it or not? Either way, It makes no sence too me. 

Back to the ice and we just overtaken 2016 with some strong gains recently, mostly down to the land ice from the ESS attaching to the main pack(at last) and the hole in the laptev starting to fill up as a result. Ice is now forming in the Kara sea and that should continue as conditions remain cold with winds blowing in from the landmass. Conditions over the basin is fairly stormy(especially near Wrangel Island in a days time)but looks like a weakish Arctic high will try and take control in the coming days. What happens after that is more uncertain but hints do seem to be the high will drift towards Beaufort and a dipole may set up, bad news for ice growth in the Chuckchi sea if that happens. 

[Kirkcaldy Weather]

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[Geordiesnow]

Little update on the current state of affairs on the sea ice:

Extent is 4th lowest although the difference between 2nd lowest and 6th lowest is quite tight and insignificant to what may lie ahead. The main thing for me is that extent has not followed 2016 or even be below that despite the slow initial freeze up. 

Unfortunately despite cold northerly winds dominating, the ice in the Chuckchi is very reluctant to increase much and there is a massive deep storm on the way in this region within 2 to 3 days time, be interesting too see how it plays out in terms of ice extent here given there is still quite a bit of open water around. Either way, it looks like another late Chuckchi freeze up and this is one of the first signs of a struggle to freeze up that the Arctic is likely to experience in the upcoming decades. Im sure one year the Bering Stright and Bering sea will remain ice free, could this be the year? 

Weather conditions are set to get quite cold across the pole and the Atlantic side in general, so that red DMI line could reach the average line again perhaps. 

Overall this autumn is nothing like the 2016 horror conditions but air temperatures across most of the Pacific side of the basin are well above average so ice thickening is bound to be slow here surely? 

[Kirkcaldy Weather]

 

[Geordiesnow]

Persistent high pressure over Beaufort and open water over Chuckchi has meant so far this December it's been well above average temperatures across the pacific side of the basin, really does not bode well for the Pacific side of the basin come summer time. 

Hints this may change but the models are struggling with the placement of the high and the PV that may travel around it. 

When will the Bering Stright completely freeze over also, its a complete struggle and that of course means it impacts how much ice may form in the Bering Sea. Let's just hope we don't get another February 2019 where southerly winds dominated this area and resulted in that impressive melting we saw then. 

[Gray-Wolf]

It looks like yesterday saw the last Sea ice losses of 2019 with a surprise drop of 10K?

[Geordiesnow]

On 30/12/2019 at 12:57, Gray-Wolf said:

It looks like yesterday saw the last Sea ice losses of 2019 with a surprise drop of 10K?

I wonder if we will see any losses again if/when the upcoming southerlies hit the Bering sea area soon. Reminds me a little bit of last year where as soon as the winds turned, the ice melted/compacted quite quickly leaving the bering sea almost ice free. 

Whilst the weather may not of been much overly much above average this winter season, alot of the wind direction has the ice heading towards the pole and towards the fram Stright, leaving the Pacific side of the basin more vulnable perhaps. Also due to not much in the way of high pressure so far this winter(unlike Autumn) we may not have as much fast ice(ice forming against landmasses) forming in the ESS so far(there was less fast ice in 2019 compared to 2018) and fast ice is more harder to melt than normal ice, one too keep an eye on though. 

[Gray-Wolf]

Looking at the state of the sunspot numbers I have to wonder if we are set to see another 2012 over this coming summer with entrenched HP's over Greenland and Russia/Siberia?

If we look at the denaturing of the remaining Sea Ice since 2012 there must be questions about how it would cope with such a year these days?

As it is we are approaching the time we have been seeing 'crackopalypse events' take place across the pack (and the export/compaction this allows?)

Well we have the Full moon in a few days & I've always favoured such 'spring tides' as helping with the stressing of the ice to the point of fracture/breakup?

I'll take a look over the weekend to see if there's owt to see!

[cheeky_monkey]

2 hours ago, Geordiesnow said:

I wonder if we will see any losses again if/when the upcoming southerlies hit the Bering sea area soon. Reminds me a little bit of last year where as soon as the winds turned, the ice melted/compacted quite quickly leaving the bering sea almost ice free. 

Whilst the weather may not of been much overly much above average this winter season, alot of the wind direction has the ice heading towards the pole and towards the fram Stright, leaving the Pacific side of the basin more vulnable perhaps. Also due to not much in the way of high pressure so far this winter(unlike Autumn) we may not have as much fast ice(ice forming against landmasses) forming in the ESS so far(there was less fast ice in 2019 compared to 2018) and fast ice is more harder to melt than normal ice, one too keep an eye on though. 

difference to last year is there is more ice in the bering sea this year..and the southerlies forecast in about a weeks time do not seem to last too long...February 2019 had constant ridging in that area with long term southerlies..which seem to persist for much of the spring and summer

[Don]

1 hour ago, Gray-Wolf said:

Looking at the state of the sunspot numbers I have to wonder if we are set to see another 2012 over this coming summer with entrenched HP's over Greenland and Russia/Siberia?

Hi GW

Why do you think that could be with sunspot numbers.  Summer 2012 was further into the solar cycle, or are you expecting a faster ramp up of SC25?

Thanks

 

[Gray-Wolf]

Hi Don!

Yes I do think we'll see sunspot numbers increase as we move through spring? That said I was wrong in that sunspot numbers/blank days have been very different to what I expected!

 

[Geordiesnow]

22 hours ago, cheeky_monkey said:

difference to last year is there is more ice in the bering sea this year..and the southerlies forecast in about a weeks time do not seem to last too long...February 2019 had constant ridging in that area with long term southerlies..which seem to persist for much of the spring and summer

Is there though? I don't think the difference is all that great to be honest and the ice has only just formed so it will be very thin. 

Difference is these southerlies are coming in via a deep low rather than a ridge(For now) so the air wont be as warm but nonetheless the winds could well cause an retreat nonetheless. 

[Don]

5 hours ago, Gray-Wolf said:

Hi Don!

Yes I do think we'll see sunspot numbers increase as we move through spring? That said I was wrong in that sunspot numbers/blank days have been very different to what I expected!

 

Thanks GW!

As always we will have to see.

[Gray-Wolf]

Well it looks like we are seeing some minor reductions in ice cover for yesterday?

I also note that the lack of the Polar night Jet driven Arctic Plunges into NE Canada/NE USA has the Great lake low on ice for the time of year?

This might mean we see some mighty Lake effect snow events once we do see a Polar Plunge sweep across them due to the amount of open water feeding snowfall down wind?

[Geordiesnow]

8 hours ago, Gray-Wolf said:

Well it looks like we are seeing some minor reductions in ice cover for yesterday?

I also note that the lack of the Polar night Jet driven Arctic Plunges into NE Canada/NE USA has the Great lake low on ice for the time of year?

This might mean we see some mighty Lake effect snow events once we do see a Polar Plunge sweep across them due to the amount of open water feeding snowfall down wind?

Indeed and with the continuous southerlies(apart from around 24 hours when a low pressure moves through before the Pacific ridge takes hold) forecast around the Bering Sea then I won't be surprised at seeing more losses occurring and for the Bering Sea extent to be on the low side again as it was in 2018 and 2019.

[Geordiesnow]

No posts in here for a while, must be an uneventful refreeze season! 

At least the Bering sea ice extent did not get too affected by those southerlies a while back but ice extent around there is still pretty low. 

However its the Atlantic side that could get some fun and games as the winds are forecast to switch to more of a southerly and could last a while also. This has already started to the North of Svalbard but set to affect the Barants and Kara seas in the coming days. Be interesting too see if this ice will be more resilient or not to a change of wind direction. I'm not expecting too see rapid retreats such as some previous years but it will be interesting in a weeks time how much the ice edge has changed. 

[Gray-Wolf]

The distinct lack of traffic on here reflects how 'well'(?) the extent/area are doing this refreeze?

With ,what appears to have been a 'normal' PNJ all season the cold has remained mainly trapped inside the Arctic (where it should be!) but , and this is the potential issue, this has given us (in temperate latitudes?) a clear sight of how our winters now are without the intrusion of 'Polar Plunges' dragging down the averages (and weathers?) of those places suffering such?

But how will this play into melt season which could be a matter of weeks away?

I imagine that the rising Sun, not troubled by large amounts of snow cover/chilled land, can go straight into 'Warming up' mode (and we know the lack of snow/ice can impact up to 1,500km distant)

Will this lead to an enhanced melt early on in the season?

Will this lead to issue across the permafrost?

In past years we have also seen significant 'Crackopalypse' events from around this time of year (Spring tidal forcing?) so will the 'normal' Arctic winter have thickened the ice to the extent that we won't see any big break up event?

As we draw toward the final warming in the PNJ, and the return of the sun across the basin it's time to get up to speed (for me at least) with 'all things Arctic' as we face another summer under the 'New' Arctic forcings young,thin ice has brought us.

[Geordiesnow]

I like to think a lack of snow cover over Europe won't have much impacts on the Arctic regions, its perhaps more important in trying to keep as much snow cover around the Arctic basin itself like in 2017 to try and minimise those heat ridges because WAA will always enter the basin in summer anyways. Guess we will find out in the next few months and see how quickly any real heat does head up to higher latitudes. 

As for the ice, what the at times slightly below average conditions will do is keep the ice temperatures very low, especially across the Pacific side of the basin therefore perhaps making ice more resistant to melt. Whilst it's nice too see extent not near record lows for a change, it's not the be all and end all as far summer is concerned at the moment. 

There is fairly strong hints of the Pacific ridge coming into play which may bring some WAA towards the Bering Stright, we saw last February just how much ice caan be wiped our by persistent southerlies but the ice seems more stronger around the Bering stright this time around so I'm not expecting a repeat of the very low extents of 2018 and 2019 around there but we shall see how that develops.

Do like this time of year where daylight returns to the basin so we can get first looks at the ice. Apparently lots of cracks in the ice is not a bad thing as it suggests ridging and thickening is going on. Remember the hype around the 2013 cracks in the Beaufort sea yet ice was very slow to melt in the Beaufort sea that year.