Arctic Sea Ice - 2019/2020 Refreeze Season

[Geordiesnow]

Well after an interesting melt season, sea ice is now into the annual refreeze season so what are the expectations for the ice in the next 6 months? 

For me, we are already seeing the signs of such a rapid melt season with an ice pack that is struggling to grow despite favourable conditions largely. Temperatures are above average for upper and on the ground and whilst it's largely down to the above average SSTs, it's yet another September where the PV is struggling to form which is what I expect as things only get warmer and warmer up there as the years go by. 

Only good news is that despite the above average temperatures, they are not as high as they were in 2016 and 2018 where warm ridges entered the basin, none of that looks to be forecast at the moment but as we go through winter, will they become prominent or will we see something similar to last winter where the PV was stronger in general? 

Question for me this year, will the Bering Stright and Bering sea refreeze this year? I'm sure one year they will remain largely ice free and that could have implications for the following melt season but the last 2 years have flirted this could be a posssibility, one to watch. 

 

[Kirkcaldy Weather]

 

[SteveB]

Those charts are lovely,  what amazing tools we have at our disposal today. Imagine if we could have viewed the Artic in such detail 200yrs ago, even 100yrs ago, or even 50yrs ago, hey even 30yrs ago . It really does amaze me how we can really study the world in such detail.

[cheeky_monkey]

48 minutes ago, SteveB said:

Those charts are lovely,  what amazing tools we have at our disposal today. Imagine if we could have viewed the Artic in such detail 200yrs ago, even 100yrs ago, or even 50yrs ago, hey even 30yrs ago . It really does amaze me how we can really study the world in such detail.

had most of those tool for the last 30 years..most even longer..in fact we have been taking images of both the Arctic and Antarctic from space since the early 1960's..and full set of satellite imagery since the early 1970s..still unsure why we use 1979 as the start of the satellite era for sea ice reporting?

[SteveB]

Yeah,  but you get the gist!

[Don]

1 hour ago, SteveB said:

Those charts are lovely,  what amazing tools we have at our disposal today. Imagine if we could have viewed the Artic in such detail 200yrs ago, even 100yrs ago, or even 50yrs ago, hey even 30yrs ago . It really does amaze me how we can really study the world in such detail.

They are impressive but that temperature anomaly chart would look far nicer if it was blue!  Not a chance! 

[Geordiesnow]

7 hours ago, Don said:

They are impressive but that temperature anomaly chart would look far nicer if it was blue!  Not a chance! 

Indeed but as you say it won't happen at this time of year because of the heat in the ocean. Lots of heat this year because the weather patterns has been favorable for sea ice growth but the temperatures have not shown it whatsoever. 

Just imagine if this year saw weather patterns like last October and October 2016. Thankfully none of that is on the horizon and again imo, weather patterns look decent for the basin but will it result in ice growth, SST anaomolies are still high but time will tell. 

[BornFromTheVoid]

15 hours ago, cheeky_monkey said:

had most of those tool for the last 30 years..most even longer..in fact we have been taking images of both the Arctic and Antarctic from space since the early 1960's..and full set of satellite imagery since the early 1970s..still unsure why we use 1979 as the start of the satellite era for sea ice reporting?

Because it was 1978 when regular measurements using a consistent series of sensors began. Specifically, the special sensor microwave imager that was part of the defence meteorological  satellite program. Allows for apples to apples comparisons

[Don]

9 hours ago, Geordiesnow said:

Indeed but as you say it won't happen at this time of year because of the heat in the ocean.

Not sure it will happen anytime of the year at this rate!

[Kirkcaldy Weather]

 

[Kirkcaldy Weather]

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[Kirkcaldy Weather]

 

[Don]

On 09/10/2019 at 18:08, Kirkcaldy Weather said:

 

What a sorry state! 

[kold weather]

I suspect the extent will still probably get close to where it has over the last 10 years or so but given a slow start you've got to wonder what sort of depth and quality of ice is going to develop in what may end up being a shorter than normal frozen season (especially further out from the ice rump left from the summer).

 

[Geordiesnow]

On 13/10/2019 at 13:17, kold weather said:

I suspect the extent will still probably get close to where it has over the last 10 years or so but given a slow start you've got to wonder what sort of depth and quality of ice is going to develop in what may end up being a shorter than normal frozen season (especially further out from the ice rump left from the summer).

 

I think it could be a while before extent starts shooting up to join in the rest as the ESS and the laptev will be super slow to grow this year, there is no arm of ice stretching towards the ESS, very little sign of cooler waters stretching there, until an arm of ice stretches from the main pack towards the coastal ice in the ESS and the other arm in the laptev reaches the Russian coastline therefore cutting off any in fluxes from the Atlantic and Pacific oceans, the laptev will not freeze very quickly at all. 

Last year initial refreeze was slow but that was down to the extraordinary weather conditions which meant winds just kept on compacting the ice rather than letting it grow much, any year the result would be the same. This year, totally different weather, somewhat colder, winds that should help spread the ice out and help it to grow and yet refreeze has been super slow despite that. Can only be down to the SSTS and the early ish retreat across the pacific side of the basin and this process will only get worse and worse as we get towards the BOE. 

Weather conditions look cold across the pole but ridiculasly warm elsewhere and with the chance of a high forming over the Beaufort, this will mean compacting winds and therefore more below average gains. Hope I'm wrong on that. 

[Kirkcaldy Weather]

 

[Kirkcaldy Weather]

 

[Geordiesnow]

13 hours ago, Kirkcaldy Weather said:

 

And that number will increase significantly as the Arctic is going to go through a large period of compacting winds and ice being pushed out of the fram Stright, basically not good news for significant regrowth and I shall expect alot of open water on the pacific side of the basin by the start of November unless the pattern changes significantly again. 

Also baffin and Hudson Bay is going to be very slow to gain ice this year due to continuous warmth over that part of the world so 2019 could well be on its own for a good while yet. 

Despite that, temperatures across the ice has been lower than some years so maybe volume may not necessary reflect the slow extent growth? 

[Kirkcaldy Weather]

 

[Kirkcaldy Weather]

 

[Don]

12 hours ago, Kirkcaldy Weather said:

 

Those charts look catastrophic.  However, shouldn’t be a surprise.

[Thundery wintry showers]

Yes, and all of this is happening despite relatively favourable synoptics for sea ice growth for a large part of the autumn so far.  I think the exceptionally high sea surface temperatures on the Eurasian side of the Arctic, extending across towards Alaska, may be largely to blame, following record breaking temperatures there during late July and August after an unusually early melt-out.

I recall looking at the 1995 Arctic melt season (which at the time saw one of the two lowest minimum extents on record, the other being 1990) and sea ice was slow to form on the Eurasian side of the Arctic because of persistent strong southerly winds in that region in late September.  However, as soon as the southerlies abated, the ice quickly reformed and by 20 October a large majority of that region had iced over.  Things have clearly changed a lot up there since then!

Edited October 26, 2019 by Thundery wintry showers

[Don]

7 minutes ago, Thundery wintry showers said:

Yes, and all of this is happening despite relatively favourable synoptics for sea ice growth for a large part of the autumn so far.  I think the exceptionally high sea surface temperatures on the Eurasian side of the Arctic, extending across towards Alaska, may be largely to blame, following record breaking temperatures there during late July and August after an unusually early melt-out.

I recall looking at the 1995 Arctic melt season (which at the time saw one of the two lowest minimum extents on record, the other being 1990) and sea ice was slow to form on the Eurasian side of the Arctic because of persistent strong southerly winds in that region in late September.  However, as soon as the southerlies abated, the ice quickly reformed and by 20 October a large majority of that region had iced over.  Things have clearly changed a lot up there since then!

No wonder northerlies are so feeble these days!

[Thundery wintry showers]

Yes, I think the Arctic climate encountered a step-change in 2005 when the main driver of warming in the region shifted to being warm sea surface temperatures and lack of sea ice. 

Between 1990 and 2004, much, though not all, of the Arctic warming could be explained synoptically, and the same was also true of our relatively mild and snow free winters in the UK, as when we did get northerlies they weren't significantly less potent than they were earlier in the 20th century.   There was a paper on this subject by Erik Kolstad (Marine cold-air outbreaks, Climate Dynamics) which showed no significant decline in the potency of northerlies between 1961 and 2000.  It would be interesting to see an updated scientific analysis of marine cold-air outbreaks for the period 2005 onwards, as I expect that it would give very different results.

I have a suspicion that the Arctic might have passed another "tipping point" into a warmer base climate state in 2016 driven even more strongly by SSTs and sea ice than in 2005-2015, although we'll need at least a couple of years more data to be able to have as much confidence in this as with the 2005 shift.

Although the greatest warming from 2005 onwards has occurred in the "Arctic Rim" at 70-80N, which is most sensitive to sea ice changes, these climatic shifts are also evident in the ERA reanalysis for the Arctic north of 80N: http://ocean.dmi.dk/arctic/meant80n_anomaly.uk.php

 

 

Edited October 26, 2019 by Thundery wintry showers

[Don]

16 minutes ago, Thundery wintry showers said:

Yes, I think the Arctic climate encountered a step-change in 2005 when the main driver of warming in the region shifted to being warm sea surface temperatures and lack of sea ice. 

Between 1990 and 2004, much, though not all, of the Arctic warming could be explained synoptically, and the same was also true of our relatively mild and snow free winters in the UK, as when we did get northerlies they weren't significantly less potent than they were earlier in the 20th century.   There was a paper on this subject by Erik Kolstad (Marine cold-air outbreaks, Climate Dynamics) which showed no significant decline in the potency of northerlies between 1961 and 2000.  It would be interesting to see an updated scientific analysis of marine cold-air outbreaks for the period 2005 onwards, as I expect that it would give very different results.

I have a suspicion that the Arctic might have passed another "tipping point" into a warmer base climate state in 2016 driven even more strongly by SSTs and sea ice than in 2005-2015, although we'll need at least a couple of years more data to be able to have as much confidence in this as with the 2005 shift.

Although the greatest warming from 2005 onwards has occurred in the "Arctic Rim" at 70-80N, which is most sensitive to sea ice changes, these climatic shifts are also evident in the ERA reanalysis for the Arctic north of 80N: http://ocean.dmi.dk/arctic/meant80n_anomaly.uk.php

 

 

So, I guess we are going to have to rely more and more on easterlies for our cold/snowy outbreaks rather than northerlies now?  As Beast from the Easts are increasingly rare these days (2018 being an exception), it looks pretty grim for snow lovers?