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Pretty good agreement on the surface analysis between the latest fax and this evening's ecm for midday Thursday

PPVK89.thumb.gif.343112df196174b9dd248c4f57f41eb5.gif72.thumb.png.cb3132c28c84cb979d750a8a30fd3e35.png

ecmwf-natl_wide-vort500_z500-0104000.thumb.png.7ea93b0a1b14d1ecb8c38ed0a35b2f4a.pngecmwf-natl_wide-z200_speed-0104000.thumb.png.6d98f6c1d931a1464043727f3cdcf07c.png

From this point the ecm has it rapidly separating from the jet and filling as the subtropical high starts to ridge north over Ireland

ecmwf-natl_wide-vort500_z500-0190400.thumb.png.06254324e986c1b1d398a1ae75af3c6c.pngecmwf-natl_wide-z200_speed-0190400.thumb.png.5fea366f6343b57e7fd49290ae55bebe.png96.thumb.png.4d625b07cfc26b883fe91b0432cc1c18.png

Edited by knocker

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First up it looks like the Azores will just about miss the worst of Lorenzo according to this morning's gfs

1695581667_t30v.thumb.png.2e5e0128156c5b397946342d1f130bf6.png1330291802_t30su.thumb.png.ab1a9ce88b4ae2615572340935cf192e.png

And nearer to home where we also look like missing a bullet, perhaps some very strong winds for a time in the north west, there is still no agreement on the details regarding Lorenzo's separation from the jet and the rapid decay after it has tracked north just west of Ireland

The fax updates for last night for midday Friday/Saturday

PPVM89.thumb.gif.703bd60dff093f32a6843829a43152ac.gifPPVO89.thumb.gif.28e12ae5122ff47608f47a6537b0fa50.gif

The gfs this morning Thursday > Saturday and note the country is already in the warm sector by then

gfs-natl_wide-z300_speed-0104000.thumb.png.4f12bdeb682aca4948d203957b65c1ee.pnggfs-natl_wide-z300_speed-0190400.thumb.png.5c27c6e301e81822e275d7f913297393.pnggfs-natl_wide-z300_speed-0276800.thumb.png.ba434a96a4450f55ce527fd9db255318.png

t60.thumb.png.bdb40e12538b8c16139b2da933ecaf55.pngt84.thumb.png.25ca51a09b140dd1a43596748a5495f9.pngt108.thumb.png.467b39d41e4b3bdef2b1d32bfdd6989d.png

 

 

Edited by knocker

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I’m no expert like some of you guys but I’m due to fly from Heathrow to Boston on Friday. Should I be worried?? 

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I'm no expert either but there is nothing obvious to worry about, just keep an eye on METO updates (these should always be your first port of call anyway)

The ecm this morning is not a million miles away from the above fax

th.thumb.png.0af96489e83208aa7288512a229d025f.pngecmwf-uk-t850_mslp_prcp6hr-0190400.thumb.png.5ef53b3f20f624142c7d5d037948e7b7.pngecmwf-uk-t850_mslp_prcp6hr-0233600.thumb.png.c718316740a1a04552303a4b8c40ff4e.pngecmwf-uk-t850_mslp_prcp6hr-0276800.thumb.png.9c3fb0b027632c781a5448d545b8fc3a.png

P.S

I think there is a very strong case for 'undercutting' to be consigned to the swear filter sine die

 

Edited by knocker

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I think Lorenzo, according to this, is to the South Coast but it’s that feature South East of Greenland that still makes me a bit aghhh!!!

3A02F094-F4A2-41C7-9633-AAF98689AD96.jpeg

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38 minutes ago, knocker said:

I'm no expert either but there is nothing obvious to worry about, just keep an eye on METO updates (these should always be your first port of call anyway)

The ecm this morning is not a million miles away from the above fax

th.thumb.png.0af96489e83208aa7288512a229d025f.pngecmwf-uk-t850_mslp_prcp6hr-0190400.thumb.png.5ef53b3f20f624142c7d5d037948e7b7.pngecmwf-uk-t850_mslp_prcp6hr-0233600.thumb.png.c718316740a1a04552303a4b8c40ff4e.pngecmwf-uk-t850_mslp_prcp6hr-0276800.thumb.png.9c3fb0b027632c781a5448d545b8fc3a.png

P.S

I think there is a very strong case for 'undercutting' to be consigned to the swear filter sine die

 

Please explain what's the bottom quote suppose to mean?

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56 minutes ago, winterfreak said:

I’m no expert like some of you guys but I’m due to fly from Heathrow to Boston on Friday. Should I be worried?? 

Not at all.

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34 minutes ago, booferking said:

Please explain what's the bottom quote suppose to mean?

Since my first answer was summarily removed I'll try again, not that it's of any importance. 'Undercut' has always been one of the forums 'in words' and thus is used frequently, at a drop of a hat, in boring repetition that is often out of context and misleading. In fact I would say it's used far more often than my local butcher. So consigning it to the swear filter would be a blessed relief

Of course the original comment was a tad 'tongue-in-cheek and it certainly wasn't the intention for Cobra to be alerted 😉

Edited by knocker

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Lorenzo - NHC "there will be some enormous seas on the eastern side of Lorenzo. "

Met office link mentioned https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/weather/specialist-forecasts/coast-and-sea/high-seas-forecast 

Next 24 hours "Violent storm force winds expected in East Central Section"

and NOrth Atlantic high seas from NOAA https://ocean.weather.gov/shtml/NFDHSFAT1.php 

information and updates for the Azores @VOSTPT 

0110sathighseas.png

0110azorestimes.png

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2 minutes ago, Jo Farrow said:

Lorenzo - NHC "there will be some enormous seas on the eastern side of Lorenzo. "

Met office link mentioned https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/weather/specialist-forecasts/coast-and-sea/high-seas-forecast 

 

Ireland & Cornwall - Surf's up!

Something that caught my eye on the NOAA discussion - trapped-fetch waves.

https://www.wmo.int/pages/prog/amp/mmop/documents/JCOMM-TR/J-TR-29-WH8/Presentations/H1.pdf

Not an intuitive phenomena, i.e dependent on storm strength, but more to do with storm track.

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1 hour ago, Jo Farrow said:

Lorenzo - NHC "there will be some enormous seas on the eastern side of Lorenzo. "

Met office link mentioned https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/weather/specialist-forecasts/coast-and-sea/high-seas-forecast 

Next 24 hours "Violent storm force winds expected in East Central Section"

and NOrth Atlantic high seas from NOAA https://ocean.weather.gov/shtml/NFDHSFAT1.php 

information and updates for the Azores @VOSTPT 

0110sathighseas.png

0110azorestimes.png

I was looking at this wave/swell model earlier and I'm assuming it is actually off the scale as judging from my experience this is a way underestimate. Of course one doesn't know what they mean by significant

ww3-natl-ww3_sig_wave_height_dir-0010400.thumb.png.7982a8d699d753ebf129ddd46e40488c.png

Edited by knocker

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Hurricane Lorenzo will start to move over the Azores tonight and during tomorrow morning the image below shows the ECM's predicted gusts at 10am on Wednesday,

l1.thumb.png.e4091b2dbfe503bdf6337af8d1e4b8c5.png

Today the models are in much better agreement over the path it will take when it makes it's way towards the UK and Ireland. This morning the ECM and Met Office look similar with it just to the North West of Ireland on Thursday night,

Met Office Fax Chart,

l2.thumb.png.03f0634bb8c6f37435bf0907f42ae580.png

ECM gust chart for the same time its showing gusts around 60 to 70mph across the West coast of Ireland with some places possibly seeing higher gusts however it's important to note that how deep the low pressure will get still seems uncertain the Met Office has it at 976mb while the ECM is deeper at 962mb,

l3.thumb.png.c7b12ed3b8cef53c59de3ffbd00d8191.png

Friday 10am the ECM has the low pressure weaken to 984mb as it moves South East across Ireland giving strong gusts in land mostly around 50mph but some places seeing more up to 60mph,

l4.thumb.png.d667eeb50e83bb8e05bcc9767c595ec0.png

Later on Friday the ECM has gusts around 50mph for parts of Wales mainly across the West and South along with the South West of England,

l5.thumb.png.24520e2ba827d1a13612b8de616d0382.png

The above scenario is just one of two possible outcomes that the models seem to be showing but at the moment it does have more support as the Met Office, ECM, GEM, ARPEGE, JMA and NAVGEM all show something similar to this and just recently this morning the latest GFS run has changed to support this. So the second possible outcome is what the ICON shows. It's keeping it further North West the image below is for Thursday afternoon as the low pressure brushes pass Ireland the Western coast gets gusts over 50mph,

l6.thumb.png.cb16e291c3efc8f1eb5310428a07e6ea.png

Instead of moving South East it heads North West and weakens overnight into Friday morning bringing just a rather standard windy day for Western Scotland,

l7.thumb.png.081fc0df28089c87f97621da2d593319.png

But it's not just the wind to be concerned about its also going to bring a lot of rain to some places the ICON is showing a rain accumulation of 40 to 60mm over Norhern parts of the country with parts of Southern Scotland seeing over 100mm,

l8.thumb.png.0992933d9fadf4c9f3e5c91b0e20e823.png

The ECM shows something a bit less extreme for the next 5 days with parts of Southern Scotland, Northern Ireland and Wales seeing 40 to 50mm,

l9.thumb.png.ef40640585ab8b4ac7e3ae5e30d80ee0.png

A look at the wave height for Azores on Wednesday 10am showing 54 foot waves,

l10.thumb.png.d59b10786f33b149d3de9f1cdbfb19dc.png

Possible wave height of over 40 foot on Thursday evening for the West coast of Ireland,

l11.thumb.png.439ddd67126ce5c735db37d011a3d252.png

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What I know about this is.. Ahem... modest... But just wondering if this SSTA around the Azores might serve to pep Lorenzo up a bit? Or at least keep him going a bit longer than might be expected 

Screenshot_20191001-130701.png

Edited by JeffC

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Nice explanation of these charts on the Met Office live broadcast now, which will be on Youtube later 13:22 

 

0110lorenzocoreUKM.png

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Just to digress slightly, All this talk of wave heights takes me back many years to life before the mast on Ocean Weather Ships. At that time complicated wave structure was poorly understood and old sea dog tales of massive waves were dismissed as gross exaggeration. as according to the current understanding of the physical processes, you could not get waves above a certain height before they collapsed.

But the advent of more refined physics and the development of the shipborne Wave Recorder after the war changed all of that and it was soon realized that massive waves did occur and indeed an 86 foot wave was measured on an OWS which had all been fitted with SWR

This no doubt explains the disappearances of many ships in the days of yon

http://www.oceanswormley.org/uploads/3/4/6/3/34638252/sbwr_for_wormley.pdf

End of digression

 

.

 

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Advisory from @MetEireann , warnings to be issued once Lorenzo progresses and transitions further. 

Interesting note in the discussion - 'Hurricane Lorenzo is expected to make its transition from hurricane to ET storm at approx. 49 degrees North, approx. 1000km to the SW of Ireland. By comparison, storm Ophelia in Oct 2017 retained its hurricane status until within 500km of Ireland' https://www.met.ie/forecasts/meteorologists-commentary 

Blog about Lorenzo today  https://www.netweather.tv/weather-forecasts/news/9850-hurricane-lorenzo-and-the-azores-then-what-next-for-the-massive-atlantic-swell 

0110meteireanadvisory.png

0110azoreswarn.png

0110IPMawarn.png

0110swellUKthurs.png

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3 hours ago, Jo Farrow said:

Nice explanation of these charts on the Met Office live broadcast now, which will be on Youtube later 13:22 

 

0110lorenzocoreUKM.png

Just watched that Jo. Excellent

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I think Atlantic coastal counties may get red warnings, yellow for everywhere else. Some eastern counties maybe no warning at all. 

 

Edited by The Eagle

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image.thumb.png.470c79c01fcdc26a6b0e529eb9146a5b.pngI am in shock that the NHC still have it as a hurricane that far north. That's pretty incredible for a hurricane to make it that far north. 

 

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