Jump to content
Cold?
Local
Radar
Snow?

Recommended Posts

Posted
  • Location: East Lothian
  • Weather Preferences: Not too hot, excitement of snow, a hoolie
  • Location: East Lothian

    NHC "Lorenzo is now an extremely powerful category 5 hurricane. It is the strongest hurricane on record this far north and east in the Atlantic basin."

    Being watched by the Azores @ipma_pt  and once transitioned, UK and Ireland. Still back to differences between the models and runs, even after yesterdays similarlities. THE ECM backs off north/NE away from UK

    Watching Ophelia back in Oct 2017, it was a waiting game for when it would transition, and it took a long time, just edging closer and closer to Ireland. Lorenzo is forecast to get past the Azores. All the time weather records shift. 

    2909NHClorenzo.png

    2909ecmfri.png

    2909gfslorenzo.png

    • Like 7
    Link to post
    Share on other sites
    Spotted a post you think may be an issue? Please help the team by reporting it.
    • Replies 124
    • Created
    • Last Reply

    Top Posters In This Topic

    Top Posters In This Topic

    Popular Posts

    Before Lorenzo arrives, looks like some nasty weather out west already. I decoded this image using a Software Defined Radio, Quadrifilar Helicoidal antenna at 38ft tuned to 137Mhz, a low noise am

    NHC "Lorenzo is now an extremely powerful category 5 hurricane. It is the strongest hurricane on record this far north and east in the Atlantic basin." Being watched by the Azores @ipma_pt  and o

    Going to be a lot of changes over the next two days. Media sleep waking and missing "killer Hurricane to savage UK winds up to 160 mph" headlines or Hurricane to bring record breaking winds. Shoppers

    Posted Images

    Posted
  • Location: Cork City(Southern Ireland)
  • Location: Cork City(Southern Ireland)

    Worth pointing out that NOAA were very accurate with their cone for Ophelia. That storm hit Cork really bad with hurricane type damage across the coast. It came more directly North though from Western Portugal so it had spent more time over warmer waters than Lorenzo will.

     

    Link to post
    Share on other sites
    Posted
  • Location: Sheffield South Yorkshire 160M Powering the Sheffield Shield
  • Weather Preferences: Any Extreme
  • Location: Sheffield South Yorkshire 160M Powering the Sheffield Shield

    Here we go the sun has picked it up. "THE UK  is braced for one of Europe's strongest-ever hurricanes which will bring 80mph gales, 16ft waves and SNOW next week." The rest of the press still asleep at the wheel. The models all over the place with this at the moment so where it goes who knows and how strong it will be. Noaa have been very bullish with the track having the remains hitting Ireland Thursday evening.

    Since it's still a major hurricane the topic title should be hurricane rather than tropical storm.

    Edited by The PIT
    • Like 1
    Link to post
    Share on other sites
    Posted
  • Location: Leeds/Bradford border, 185 metres above sea level, around 600 feet
  • Location: Leeds/Bradford border, 185 metres above sea level, around 600 feet

    Peaked at 160mph, 925mph but has dropped since to 155mph.

    Link to post
    Share on other sites
    Posted
  • Location: Northiam, East Sussex, 70m asl
  • Weather Preferences: snow,thunder,tornados
  • Location: Northiam, East Sussex, 70m asl
    2 minutes ago, summer blizzard said:

    Peaked at 160mph, 925mph but has dropped since to 155mph.

    925mph, wow, lol

    Link to post
    Share on other sites
    Posted
  • Location: Coniston, Cumbria 90m ASL
  • Weather Preferences: wintry
  • Location: Coniston, Cumbria 90m ASL
    23 minutes ago, snowrye said:

    925mph, wow, lol

    Goodbye Ireland!

    • Like 1
    Link to post
    Share on other sites
    Posted
  • Location: Cork City(Southern Ireland)
  • Location: Cork City(Southern Ireland)

    Gfs and icon 06z runs continue to keep it well to the West. They surely have a handle on it by now

    Noaa cone just looks wrong imo and it's very likely to miss us by several 100 miles

    Edited by January Snowstorm
    Link to post
    Share on other sites
    Posted
  • Location: Dunoon, Argyll, Scotland
  • Weather Preferences: Sun and Snow
  • Location: Dunoon, Argyll, Scotland

    Both the GFS and ICON models are keen on sending it West out into the Atlantic this would mean the worst of the winds would miss hitting land,

    l1.thumb.png.705093b2c0075042b34da97879db8c1f.png

    l2.thumb.png.d3cbe44e85268e0e3cd8c71b9d570012.png

    The ECM, Met Office, GEM and NAVGEM are all in agreement of having it further East and a bit more South closer to Ireland and the South of England,

    l3.thumb.png.5f143b7875b7b7637ff06162b9acc660.png

    ECM gusts on Thursday night and early Friday morning

    l4.thumb.png.9046dded31716436b1d13afe041019b5.png

    l5.thumb.png.259e35604ac89d535e40bc40666cca2a.png

    • Like 1
    Link to post
    Share on other sites
    Posted
  • Location: East Lothian
  • Weather Preferences: Not too hot, excitement of snow, a hoolie
  • Location: East Lothian
    4 hours ago, The PIT said:

    Here we go the sun has picked it up. "THE UK  is braced for one of Europe's strongest-ever hurricanes which will bring 80mph gales, 16ft waves and SNOW next week." The rest of the press still asleep at the wheel. The models all over the place with this at the moment so where it goes who knows and how strong it will be. Noaa have been very bullish with the track having the remains hitting Ireland Thursday evening.

    Since it's still a major hurricane the topic title should be hurricane rather than tropical storm.

    Love that they have got snow in as well

    • Like 1
    Link to post
    Share on other sites
    Posted
  • Location: on a canal , probably near Northampton...
  • Weather Preferences: extremes n snow
  • Location: on a canal , probably near Northampton...
    40 minutes ago, The Eagle said:

    20190929-00-UTC-ECMWF.png

    Take your pick...

    Looks like Met Eirrean will be announcing Storm Leek very shortly.

    Edited by matty40s
    • Like 5
    Link to post
    Share on other sites
    Posted
  • Location: East Lothian
  • Weather Preferences: Not too hot, excitement of snow, a hoolie
  • Location: East Lothian

    Satellite for the area from IPMA http://www.ipma.pt/en/espaco/msg/index.jsp 

    currently showing heavy rain from a cold front linked to the low pressure heading our way for tomorrow.

    Three groups of the Azores or Acores , which are identified on the weather warnings tab of the IPMA page

    The Eastern Group (Grupo Oriental) of São Miguel, Santa Maria and Formigas Islets

    The Central Group (Grupo Central) of Terceira, Graciosa, São Jorge, Pico and Faial

    The Western Group (Grupo Ocidental) of Flores and Corvo.  Most at risk from Lorenzo; 4,000 inhabitants of Flores, Corvo 400

    and today's NASA worldview

     

    2909ipmaradarsat.png

    2909nasalorenzo.png

    • Like 2
    Link to post
    Share on other sites
    Posted
  • Location: Sheffield South Yorkshire 160M Powering the Sheffield Shield
  • Weather Preferences: Any Extreme
  • Location: Sheffield South Yorkshire 160M Powering the Sheffield Shield

    First switch on NOAA track away from the UK only the UKmo has it coming over us

    Link to post
    Share on other sites
    Posted
  • Location: Mytholmroyd, West Yorks.......
  • Weather Preferences: Hot & Sunny, Cold & Snowy
  • Location: Mytholmroyd, West Yorks.......

    I tend to favour the 'capture by the low over Iceland and so a track to our west?

    But then such a powerful 'ex' storm sitting over Fram is not good either?

    Link to post
    Share on other sites
    Posted
  • Location: Dunoon, Argyll, Scotland
  • Weather Preferences: Sun and Snow
  • Location: Dunoon, Argyll, Scotland

    A slight change over night in the models on the path it will take the ARPEGE, JMA, ICON and NAVGEM are keeping it further West into the Atlantic which will keep the worst of the winds away from hitting land although coastal parts of Ireland are still at risk of seeing some strong winds if this happens,

    l1.thumb.png.0bdc370a9088cc47f0bd894d31d5fb7f.png

    A closer look at the ECM gusts on Thursday night strong gusts affecting Western parts of Ireland.

    l2.thumb.png.92f1379b341ea5a2db71ad136e29f4eb.png

    North Western parts of Ireland on Friday morning gusts,

    l3.thumb.png.17c3faf6e653cdffa2be66f2ae8d68b5.png

    The ICON shows below even that would bring a brief spell of strong winds to Ireland despite being one of the models having things a bit more further West,

    l4.thumb.png.f9912225c2a1061226523125d85e8a51.png

    The GFS has been consistent agreeing with most of the other models keeping it further West but the 06z run this morning it made a change to agree with the ECM a comparison between the two at Friday 4am can be seen below,

    l5.thumb.png.274ad3eb3f74cf1e2d88bc10f626604b.png

    The GFS has it placed slightly more South to the ECM giving the North West Ireland strong winds,

    l6.thumb.png.04cc1f448bdb655ae13c36eddb97f1e2.png

    The Met Office FAX chart which is valid for Thursday afternoon has the storm to the South West of Ireland which is further South than what the ECM and GFS have it at the same time,

    l8.thumb.png.9006bfd8809d08d4568db6c543958525.png

    The image below shows the GEM model is very similar to the Met Office for Thursday night,

    l7.thumb.png.45d4f73b1ee1ce3f52a5a5602d380403.png

    A bit of a closer look at the GEM model shows the strongest winds affecting Western Ireland while the Norhern parts miss out on the highest winds,

    l9.thumb.png.39b7953f96a79007e096525ceef037f7.png

    The models aren't still sure yet the GFS changing it's mind this morning shows that the models are still trying to work it out. What they do agree on is that Ireland will at the moment see some windy weather but exactly how bad and where is too early to say yet.

    Edited by Zenarcher
    • Like 2
    Link to post
    Share on other sites
    Posted
  • Location: Camborne
  • Location: Camborne

    Possibly starting to get some agreement. The gfs this evening, after the tropical transition. starts to remove Lorenzo from the influence of the jet Thursday lunchtime prior to quite rapid decay/

    gfs-natl_wide-vort500_z500-0104000.thumb.png.78e6883354b3bd09216805e947f26b8d.pnggfs-natl_wide-z250_speed-0104000.thumb.png.f9bc364ca01990b5b8cef7d4480423dc.pnggfs-natl_wide-z250_speed-0147200.thumb.png.936765cd6cf61761fade83cce15dc372.png

    But this could still briefly bring some strong winds to the north west. This is still a long way from being nailed on with the actual separation from the jet,being difficult to pin down vis time and precise position. If indeed it does happen of course

    84.thumb.png.b00cf41c5d7f129a15fb13fbe122bb79.png96.thumb.png.bfaabd2b5be04c21dd3bdb3a273a0d9e.png

    Edited by knocker
    • Like 1
    Link to post
    Share on other sites
    Posted
  • Location: Cork City(Southern Ireland)
  • Location: Cork City(Southern Ireland)

    It's the main story on the evening news here on rte. The thing has gone into overdrive and the shops are going to be thronged tomorrow. Will it won't it....I personally think no that it will miss to our West but I suppose last minute adjustment could be huge

    Link to post
    Share on other sites

    Create an account or sign in to comment

    You need to be a member in order to leave a comment

    Create an account

    Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!

    Register a new account

    Sign in

    Already have an account? Sign in here.

    Sign In Now
    ×
    ×
    • Create New...