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Posted
  • Location: East Lothian
  • Weather Preferences: Not too hot, excitement of snow, a hoolie
  • Location: East Lothian

NHC "Lorenzo is now an extremely powerful category 5 hurricane. It is the strongest hurricane on record this far north and east in the Atlantic basin."

Being watched by the Azores @ipma_pt  and once transitioned, UK and Ireland. Still back to differences between the models and runs, even after yesterdays similarlities. THE ECM backs off north/NE away from UK

Watching Ophelia back in Oct 2017, it was a waiting game for when it would transition, and it took a long time, just edging closer and closer to Ireland. Lorenzo is forecast to get past the Azores. All the time weather records shift. 

2909NHClorenzo.png

2909ecmfri.png

2909gfslorenzo.png

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Posted
  • Location: Cork City(Southern Ireland)
  • Location: Cork City(Southern Ireland)

Worth pointing out that NOAA were very accurate with their cone for Ophelia. That storm hit Cork really bad with hurricane type damage across the coast. It came more directly North though from Western Portugal so it had spent more time over warmer waters than Lorenzo will.

 

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Posted
  • Location: Sheffield South Yorkshire 160M Powering the Sheffield Shield
  • Weather Preferences: Any Extreme
  • Location: Sheffield South Yorkshire 160M Powering the Sheffield Shield

Here we go the sun has picked it up. "THE UK  is braced for one of Europe's strongest-ever hurricanes which will bring 80mph gales, 16ft waves and SNOW next week." The rest of the press still asleep at the wheel. The models all over the place with this at the moment so where it goes who knows and how strong it will be. Noaa have been very bullish with the track having the remains hitting Ireland Thursday evening.

Since it's still a major hurricane the topic title should be hurricane rather than tropical storm.

Edited by The PIT
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Posted
  • Location: Leeds/Bradford border, 185 metres above sea level, around 600 feet
  • Location: Leeds/Bradford border, 185 metres above sea level, around 600 feet

Peaked at 160mph, 925mph but has dropped since to 155mph.

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Posted
  • Location: Mill Corner East Sussex, 55m asl
  • Weather Preferences: snow,thunder,tornados
  • Location: Mill Corner East Sussex, 55m asl
2 minutes ago, summer blizzard said:

Peaked at 160mph, 925mph but has dropped since to 155mph.

925mph, wow, lol

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Posted
  • Location: Coniston, Cumbria 90m ASL
  • Weather Preferences: wintry
  • Location: Coniston, Cumbria 90m ASL
23 minutes ago, snowrye said:

925mph, wow, lol

Goodbye Ireland!

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Posted
  • Location: Cork City(Southern Ireland)
  • Location: Cork City(Southern Ireland)

Gfs and icon 06z runs continue to keep it well to the West. They surely have a handle on it by now

Noaa cone just looks wrong imo and it's very likely to miss us by several 100 miles

Edited by January Snowstorm
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Posted
  • Location: Dunoon, Argyll Scotland
  • Location: Dunoon, Argyll Scotland

Both the GFS and ICON models are keen on sending it West out into the Atlantic this would mean the worst of the winds would miss hitting land,

l1.thumb.png.705093b2c0075042b34da97879db8c1f.png

l2.thumb.png.d3cbe44e85268e0e3cd8c71b9d570012.png

The ECM, Met Office, GEM and NAVGEM are all in agreement of having it further East and a bit more South closer to Ireland and the South of England,

l3.thumb.png.5f143b7875b7b7637ff06162b9acc660.png

ECM gusts on Thursday night and early Friday morning

l4.thumb.png.9046dded31716436b1d13afe041019b5.png

l5.thumb.png.259e35604ac89d535e40bc40666cca2a.png

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Posted
  • Location: East Lothian
  • Weather Preferences: Not too hot, excitement of snow, a hoolie
  • Location: East Lothian
4 hours ago, The PIT said:

Here we go the sun has picked it up. "THE UK  is braced for one of Europe's strongest-ever hurricanes which will bring 80mph gales, 16ft waves and SNOW next week." The rest of the press still asleep at the wheel. The models all over the place with this at the moment so where it goes who knows and how strong it will be. Noaa have been very bullish with the track having the remains hitting Ireland Thursday evening.

Since it's still a major hurricane the topic title should be hurricane rather than tropical storm.

Love that they have got snow in as well

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Posted
  • Location: on a canal , probably near Northampton...
  • Weather Preferences: extremes n snow
  • Location: on a canal , probably near Northampton...
40 minutes ago, The Eagle said:

20190929-00-UTC-ECMWF.png

Take your pick...

Looks like Met Eirrean will be announcing Storm Leek very shortly.

Edited by matty40s
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Posted
  • Location: East Lothian
  • Weather Preferences: Not too hot, excitement of snow, a hoolie
  • Location: East Lothian

Satellite for the area from IPMA http://www.ipma.pt/en/espaco/msg/index.jsp 

currently showing heavy rain from a cold front linked to the low pressure heading our way for tomorrow.

Three groups of the Azores or Acores , which are identified on the weather warnings tab of the IPMA page

The Eastern Group (Grupo Oriental) of São Miguel, Santa Maria and Formigas Islets

The Central Group (Grupo Central) of Terceira, Graciosa, São Jorge, Pico and Faial

The Western Group (Grupo Ocidental) of Flores and Corvo.  Most at risk from Lorenzo; 4,000 inhabitants of Flores, Corvo 400

and today's NASA worldview

 

2909ipmaradarsat.png

2909nasalorenzo.png

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Posted
  • Location: Sheffield South Yorkshire 160M Powering the Sheffield Shield
  • Weather Preferences: Any Extreme
  • Location: Sheffield South Yorkshire 160M Powering the Sheffield Shield

First switch on NOAA track away from the UK only the UKmo has it coming over us

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Posted
  • Location: Mytholmroyd, West Yorks.......
  • Weather Preferences: Hot & Sunny, Cold & Snowy
  • Location: Mytholmroyd, West Yorks.......

I tend to favour the 'capture by the low over Iceland and so a track to our west?

But then such a powerful 'ex' storm sitting over Fram is not good either?

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Posted
  • Location: Dunoon, Argyll Scotland
  • Location: Dunoon, Argyll Scotland

A slight change over night in the models on the path it will take the ARPEGE, JMA, ICON and NAVGEM are keeping it further West into the Atlantic which will keep the worst of the winds away from hitting land although coastal parts of Ireland are still at risk of seeing some strong winds if this happens,

l1.thumb.png.0bdc370a9088cc47f0bd894d31d5fb7f.png

A closer look at the ECM gusts on Thursday night strong gusts affecting Western parts of Ireland.

l2.thumb.png.92f1379b341ea5a2db71ad136e29f4eb.png

North Western parts of Ireland on Friday morning gusts,

l3.thumb.png.17c3faf6e653cdffa2be66f2ae8d68b5.png

The ICON shows below even that would bring a brief spell of strong winds to Ireland despite being one of the models having things a bit more further West,

l4.thumb.png.f9912225c2a1061226523125d85e8a51.png

The GFS has been consistent agreeing with most of the other models keeping it further West but the 06z run this morning it made a change to agree with the ECM a comparison between the two at Friday 4am can be seen below,

l5.thumb.png.274ad3eb3f74cf1e2d88bc10f626604b.png

The GFS has it placed slightly more South to the ECM giving the North West Ireland strong winds,

l6.thumb.png.04cc1f448bdb655ae13c36eddb97f1e2.png

The Met Office FAX chart which is valid for Thursday afternoon has the storm to the South West of Ireland which is further South than what the ECM and GFS have it at the same time,

l8.thumb.png.9006bfd8809d08d4568db6c543958525.png

The image below shows the GEM model is very similar to the Met Office for Thursday night,

l7.thumb.png.45d4f73b1ee1ce3f52a5a5602d380403.png

A bit of a closer look at the GEM model shows the strongest winds affecting Western Ireland while the Norhern parts miss out on the highest winds,

l9.thumb.png.39b7953f96a79007e096525ceef037f7.png

The models aren't still sure yet the GFS changing it's mind this morning shows that the models are still trying to work it out. What they do agree on is that Ireland will at the moment see some windy weather but exactly how bad and where is too early to say yet.

Edited by Zenarcher
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Posted
  • Location: Kirkcaldy, Fife, Scotland 20m ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Snow,Thunderstorms mix both for heaven THUNDERSNOW 😜😀🤤🥰
  • Location: Kirkcaldy, Fife, Scotland 20m ASL

 

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Posted
  • Location: Camborne
  • Location: Camborne

Possibly starting to get some agreement. The gfs this evening, after the tropical transition. starts to remove Lorenzo from the influence of the jet Thursday lunchtime prior to quite rapid decay/

gfs-natl_wide-vort500_z500-0104000.thumb.png.78e6883354b3bd09216805e947f26b8d.pnggfs-natl_wide-z250_speed-0104000.thumb.png.f9bc364ca01990b5b8cef7d4480423dc.pnggfs-natl_wide-z250_speed-0147200.thumb.png.936765cd6cf61761fade83cce15dc372.png

But this could still briefly bring some strong winds to the north west. This is still a long way from being nailed on with the actual separation from the jet,being difficult to pin down vis time and precise position. If indeed it does happen of course

84.thumb.png.b00cf41c5d7f129a15fb13fbe122bb79.png96.thumb.png.bfaabd2b5be04c21dd3bdb3a273a0d9e.png

Edited by knocker
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Posted
  • Location: Cork City(Southern Ireland)
  • Location: Cork City(Southern Ireland)

It's the main story on the evening news here on rte. The thing has gone into overdrive and the shops are going to be thronged tomorrow. Will it won't it....I personally think no that it will miss to our West but I suppose last minute adjustment could be huge

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