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Before Lorenzo arrives, looks like some nasty weather out west already. I decoded this image using a Software Defined Radio, Quadrifilar Helicoidal antenna at 38ft tuned to 137Mhz, a low noise am

NHC "Lorenzo is now an extremely powerful category 5 hurricane. It is the strongest hurricane on record this far north and east in the Atlantic basin." Being watched by the Azores @ipma_pt  and o

Going to be a lot of changes over the next two days. Media sleep waking and missing "killer Hurricane to savage UK winds up to 160 mph" headlines or Hurricane to bring record breaking winds. Shoppers

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I just read this on Josh Morgermans Facebook.....

Way out in the E Atlantic, LORENZO will soon become a powerful hurricane. The computer models are showing recurvature in the general direction of the British Isles. LORENZO wouldn't be a hurricane when it got there, but it's possible it could still arrive as a powerful extratropical storm—sort of like OPHELIA in 2017. Again, it's too early to say.

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15 minutes ago, Hurricane Debby said:

Please explain the Ophelia-esque evolution to me. Josh Morgerman mentioned Ophelia....

"Hurricane Ophelia (known as Storm Ophelia in Ireland and the United Kingdom while extratropical) was regarded as the worst storm to affect Ireland in 50 years, and was also the easternmost Atlantic major hurricane on record." https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hurricane_Ophelia_(2017)

Still lots of uncertainty with the exact track / strength of Lorenzo but a track toward Ireland / UK is a possibility.

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Yup, still could go many ways. Some fairly notable evolutions out there though

navgem-0-162.png?27-19

 

I still favor the track to the west of Ireland keeping it off shore I think. 

203606.png

 

Should be interesting to track this.

 

Edited by The Eagle
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15 hours ago, Kirkcaldy Weather said:

"Hurricane Ophelia (known as Storm Ophelia in Ireland and the United Kingdom while extratropical) was regarded as the worst storm to affect Ireland in 50 years, and was also the easternmost Atlantic major hurricane on record." https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hurricane_Ophelia_(2017)

Still lots of uncertainty with the exact track / strength of Lorenzo but a track toward Ireland / UK is a possibility.

Thanks for the BBC clip. Very interesting to watch.

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Always worth remembering the track can change at short notice. Some runs have this potentially impacting southern parts of UK or even through Biscay and in to France.

 

 

Edited by The Eagle
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GFS 00z and 06z have a similar track,

l1.thumb.png.6b1e31d64be3c5971fb0bc6ab5191e08.png

The GFS shows Ireland get a direct hit on Thursday afternoon,

l2.thumb.png.5214a215e33b95b279b8826e66b06555.png

As it moves east it will bring strong winds to Wales and parts of England,

l3.thumb.png.ed6757b971d17aaa6affe78c148784c7.png

Early Friday morning see's winds easing for Ireland but windy over Wales and most of England,

l4.thumb.png.5155019c7f0b6d51c7daefb7dce6f3d5.png

 

The ECM takes a very similar path to the GFS just slightly more North,

l5.thumb.png.a33152d06cd4292f1ddd79e2b67b0aea.png

But the ECM appears to be an outlier its ensembles don't fully agree with it. Since the ECM tracks over the South of Scotland I've searched for the location Ayr in Scotland you can see the air pressure differences,

l6.thumb.png.f95540d8f334aa39fae015a06e9ff46b.png

The ECM could still be right I saw it happened at least twice last winter with storms the ensembles didn't back it up to begin with but over time did.

The other possibility is that it could track further West into the Atlantic and miss out on hitting any land entirely this was shown on a few models yesterday but most models have backed away from this idea today but it is still possible,

l7.thumb.png.dcfe045f47c9744e58b75342c23d5810.png

NAVGEM 00z had it further South so the worst of the winds would miss some Northern parts of Ireland and South of Scotland compared to the ECM but Southern parts along Ireland, Wales and England would see very windy weather,

l8.thumb.png.d597813c85096208a0ea3811e75005a4.png

The final thing that the models seem to suggest is it heading even further South into the Bay of Biscay which wouldn't really bring any severe wind speeds to the UK and Ireland,

l9.thumb.png.ffe17cb4f7d18c1670fe52f91997eabd.png

 

It's still a long way and at this stage any one of these scenarios could happen so it is worth keeping a watch.

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Going to be a lot of changes over the next two days. Media sleep waking and missing "killer Hurricane to savage UK winds up to 160 mph" headlines or Hurricane to bring record breaking winds. Shoppers unable to stock up on food due to brexit many will starve after the hurricane passes. Corbyn to delay demands on Election due to Killer Hurricane. LIbs Dems say they will cancel Hurricane Lorenzo if they win the election.

Edited by The PIT
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2 hours ago, The PIT said:

Going to be a lot of changes over the next two days. Media sleep waking and missing "killer Hurricane to savage UK winds up to 160 mph" headlines or Hurricane to bring record breaking winds. Shoppers unable to stock up on food due to brexit many will starve after the hurricane passes. Corbyn to delay demands on Election due to Killer Hurricane. LIbs Dems say they will cancel Hurricane Lorenzo if they win the election.

You missed the SNP saying they support Lorenzo and hop it will result in a geographic rift between Scotland and the rest of the UK!

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Lorenzo could conceivably hit Cat 5 status within the next 12 hours.

This mornings model runs will be important for Ireland and the UK later on. There is no clarity yet really on the track of the system in to the mid latitude and how it taps the jet stream.

000424.png

 

000424.png

 

Edited by The Eagle
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Quite stunning 

Ssts are only in their 28e and are about 1c above average without this a cat 5 would be possible...

He is still getting stronger on Sat and dvorak.

Path still a concern for us. latest nhc now with a forecast point on the Irish coast.

Gfs much further West and out of the cone...

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