Tropical Storm Karen

[Lauren]

She would like to speak to your manager.

https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/graphics_at2.shtml?start#contents

 

Biggest threat seems to be a direct hit on PR.

[summer blizzard]

Yes, former invest 99L.

To start with the forecast track this is south east of Jerry and as such will start to follow it north however due to a weaker steering current and slower speed as a result, modelling actually suggests that TS Karen May slow to a stall around day 6-7 between the Greater Antilles and Bermuda due to Jerry having been caught by the jet and an upper ridge over the eastern US building in behind it trying to steer it west. 

- It should be noted that many ensembles also have Karen caught after the stall and turned NE. This is the solution I back because it seems more logical in the context of 90L forming and recurving behind it (the wave off Africa). It would be very rare for Karen to do a hard left at 25N.

In terms of strength the NHC goes for steady strengthening to a strong TS. Looking at the shear forecast I would expect only slow strengthening for the next 48 hours but shear does look low at days 3-4.

[karyo]

Sadly Karen seems to be struggling today. 

On a more interesting note, the models seem to want to change her track to a westerly direction in a few days time due to a developing high to the north.

[summer blizzard]

Ensemble spread for Karen remains high but as noted, the NHC are going with the ridge winning out and a threat to Florida. In terms of strength shear will drop close to zero at days 4-5 however the stall may limit strength.

40mph, 1007mb.

[karyo]

Karen is downgraded to a tropical depression. Looking at the ECM, herdays could numbered.

[Jo Farrow]

Back up at  Tropical Storm, Puerto Rico had a mag6 earthquake this morning and now awaiting TS Karen, as are BVI. Lot of uncertainty in forecast afterwards. Lorenzo winds showing to east

[summer blizzard]

Karen is now moving over Peurto Rico as a weak tropical storm.

Interestingly it did earlier today have multiple upper level centers within a broader low level circulation but it looks like it has a developed a tighter center in the north east of the convection.

[summer blizzard]

Mid and low level vortex are defined but very tilted preventing much happening.

1002mb, 45mph.

[summer blizzard]

Looks like TS Karen will die in a few days. While shear might relax over the next day or two it is forecast to increase again afterwards.