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Lettucing Gutted

October 2019 C.E.T. and EWP contests

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3 minutes ago, prolongedSnowLover said:

Could be very close to the 81-10 avg as long as the colder incursions occur as progged by the models.

Could be lower if those cold incursions occur i would suggest.

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11.3c to be the 20th

Bang on the 61 to 90 average

Bang on the 81 to 10 average

__________________________________

Current high this month 13.4c to the 1st

Current low this month 10.0c to be the 3rd

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3 minutes ago, Summer Sun said:

11.3c to be the 20th

Bang on the 61 to 90 average

Bang on the 81 to 10 average

__________________________________

Current high this month 13.4c to the 1st

Current low this month 10.0c to be the 3rd

Surprising that the 61-90 and 81-10 averages are the same.

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49 minutes ago, prolongedSnowLover said:

Could be very close to the 81-10 avg as long as the colder incursions occur as progged by the models.

Gavin from the other realm was estimating 10.88C however the Euro would deliver a cooler outcome. 

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Cloudy Edmonton is at 3.6c to 20th that's -1.5c below normal...looks likely October will be 9th below average month in a row here.

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Sunny Sheffield at 10.1C -1.5C below normal. Rainfall 88.2mm 106.5% of the monthly average.  Latest GFS now brings in winter rather than summer I guess it's a game of wait and see if it changes it mind rapidly again. ECM not out yet so although it was showing a cold outlook this morning. However if they are right a well below month is suddenly on the cards.

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8 hours ago, summer blizzard said:

Definitely headed for the wettest since 2013 then.

Rodger, when was the last month to reach 150mm.

For months of any name, the last one was Jan 2014 (184.6), although Dec 2015 and Jan 2016 were both just under 150. If we beat that, then the next high going back in time is Nov 2009 at 192.1 mm. Beating that we would have to go back to Nov 1940 (196.5 mm). At that point there would be three wetter months back in the more distant past, one October (1903) and the other two Novembers (1770, 1852). The wettest of them, 1903, produced 218.3 mm.

The most recent October to surpass 150 mm was 2013 with 157.6 mm.

Today's GFS ten-day drops down a bit to 30 mm (we are at 100 now) although it still brings two rain events through on Friday and Monday. 

I think the CET will finish around 10.7 given the current charts and an adjustment factor of 0.2.

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Regarding the 1981-2010 average vs 1961-90, they only end up 0.1 apart at the end of the month (10.7 vs 10.6) but the running average for 1991-2020 is converging on 10.9 or 11.0.

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11.2c to be the 20th

Bang on the 61 to 90 average

0.1c below the 81 to 10 average

__________________________________

Current high this month 13.4c to the 1st

Current low this month 10.0c to be the 3rd

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Sunny Sheffield still at 10.1C -1.4C below normal. Rainfall unchanged at 88.2mm 106.5% of the monthly average. Good chance on Friday we will pass the 100mm mark for the month. If it does it's going to make it a funny year with only one month being close to normal, four very dry and five very wet

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On 21/10/2019 at 19:28, Roger J Smith said:

For months of any name, the last one was Jan 2014 (184.6), although Dec 2015 and Jan 2016 were both just under 150. If we beat that, then the next high going back in time is Nov 2009 at 192.1 mm. Beating that we would have to go back to Nov 1940 (196.5 mm). At that point there would be three wetter months back in the more distant past, one October (1903) and the other two Novembers (1770, 1852). The wettest of them, 1903, produced 218.3 mm.

The most recent October to surpass 150 mm was 2013 with 157.6 mm.

Today's GFS ten-day drops down a bit to 30 mm (we are at 100 now) although it still brings two rain events through on Friday and Monday. 

I think the CET will finish around 10.7 given the current charts and an adjustment factor of 0.2.

Amazing stat re Dec 2015 given Storms Desmond, Eva and Frank!

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11 hours ago, Summer Sun said:

11.2c to be the 20th

Bang on the 61 to 90 average

0.1c below the 81 to 10 average

__________________________________

Current high this month 13.4c to the 1st

Current low this month 10.0c to be the 3rd

I assume you meant the 21st?

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51 minutes ago, Walsall Wood Snow said:

I assume you meant the 21st?

Yes. A typo on my part.

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I told you this was gonna plummet.

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11.2c to be the 22nd

Bang on the 61 to 90 average

Bang on the 81 to 10 average

__________________________________

Current high this month 13.4c to the 1st

Current low this month 10.0c to be the 3rd

 

*Yesterday's update should have said to the 21st*

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24 minutes ago, Summer Sun said:

11.2c to be the 22nd

Bang on the 61 to 90 average

Bang on the 81 to 10 average

__________________________________

Current high this month 13.4c to the 1st

Current low this month 10.0c to be the 3rd

 

*Yesterday's update should have said to the 21st*

Its 11.1

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