October 2019 C.E.T. and EWP contests

[Summer Sun]

10.0c to be the 3rd

2.2c below the 61 to 90 average

2.4c below the 81 to 10 average

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Current high this month 13.4c to the 1st

Current low this month 10.0c to be the 3rd

[Summer Sun]

10.4c to be the 4th

1.8c below the 61 to 90 average

1.9c below the 81 to 10 average

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Current high this month 13.4c to the 1st

Current low this month 10.0c to be the 3rd

[Roger J Smith]

FYI, I ran the October entries in EWP against various outcomes and found that at the top of the annual race, Born from the Void would maintain a lead over Reef even if Reef hits his 119 mm right on (BFTV is at 130), but it would be a reduction of two points in the current lead, whereas both of them would be dropping down quite close to any of the next three if they were to maximize their scores. If the outcome is higher than 130 mm then BFTV would probably take a nearly insurmountable lead into the last month. 

So lots depending on the outcome of this month in the EWP contest. 

Here is the spreadsheet with 119.1 mm used to determine scores. This looks as plausible as anything right now with lots of active weather on the charts. But it's only offered for reference at this early stage, obviously if you have a larger error than people around you in the scoring table, but you end up being closer, you'll move past several people above you. 

I have also updated ultimate scoring, July changed somewhat with some ranks changing, so there is a bit of a ripple effect in the order overall in ultimate compared to regular contest scoring.

(the combined best forecast feature has not been added yet)

EWP20182019OCT.xlsx

[The PIT]

Sunny Sheffield at 9.2C -4.2C below normal, Rainfall 40.7mm 49.2% of the monthly average.

We missed out on the overnight heavy rain but still with nearly 50% of the average rainfall already it's pointing to another wet month. I wonder if this month like the last doesn't really turn much cooler as the month progress's and we end up basically average.

 

[Summer Sun]

10.8c to be the 5th

1.4c below the 61 to 90 average

1.4c below the 81 to 10 average

__________________________________

Current high this month 13.4c to the 1st

Current low this month 10.0c to be the 3rd

[Roger J Smith]

EWP tracker and forecasts ...

14 mm to 4th, 8-10 mm likely added on 5th (higher amounts in west and north)

20-25 mm on average for next ten days (GFS)

20-25 mm potential on GFS 11-16 day charts

This adds up to 62-74 mm by end of 21st.

This would be near the normal October pace as monthly averages are 104 mm (1981-2010) and 100 mm (1989-2018).

[DAVID SNOW]

As for the cet that will probably be 11.2 tomorrow with nothing too chilly on the horizon, lets see what the second half of October brings.

[Summer Sun]

11.3c to be the 6th

1.0c below the 61 to 90 average

0.8c below the 81 to 10 average

__________________________________

Current high this month 13.4c to the 1st

Current low this month 10.0c to be the 3rd

[The PIT]

Sunny Sheffield 9.6C -3.5C below average, Rainfall at 41.1mm 49.6% of the monthly average. The coming three days look fairly dry here so unlikely to add anything much in the way of rainfall after today.

[damianslaw]

A cool start to October, however, the foreseeable looks likely to bring near average CET values, a bit milder perhaps than usual, given the predominance of unsettled conditions and consequently mild nights. So suspect we will go into the final third very much close to average, a continuation of current conditions right through until months end will result in an average month, with very uniform daily values.. very uninteresting from a CET watching point of view.

[Summer Sun]

11.4c to be the 7th

0.8c below the 61 to 90 average

0.7c below the 81 to 10 average

__________________________________

Current high this month 13.4c to the 1st

Current low this month 10.0c to be the 3rd

[Summer Sun]

11.6c to be the 8th

0.6c below the 61 to 90 average

0.4c below the 81 to 10 average

__________________________________

Current high this month 13.4c to the 1st

Current low this month 10.0c to be the 3rd

[The PIT]

Sunny Sheffield up to 10.2C -2.8C below normal. Rainfall 44.4mm 53.6% of the monthly average.

[Roger J Smith]

EWP was 36 mm to 7th and probably close to 40 mm now, looks to add around 50 mm next ten days (possibly more, certainly more in Wales and southwest England). That gets us to around 90 mm by 19th-20th. Maps from then to 26th seem to have 20-30 mm minimum with heavy rain indicated at the end of the run. So if that verified, we would be around 110-120 mm with about six days to go in a wet pattern. Possibly higher forecasts stand a chance of doing well, but early days as they say. My guess for the CET by end of the run would be 10.5 to 11.0.

[Summer Sun]

11.6c to be the 9th

0.5c below the 61 to 90 average

0.4c below the 81 to 10 average

__________________________________

Current high this month 13.4c to the 1st

Current low this month 10.0c to be the 3rd

[The PIT]

Sunny Sheffield still at 10.2C -2.7C below normal. Rainfall 46mm 55.6% of the monthly average.

[DAVID SNOW]

11.6 to the 10th, will jump up tomorrow though.

[Summer Sun]

11.6c to be the 10th

0.4c below the 61 to 90 average

0.4c below the 81 to 10 average

__________________________________

Current high this month 13.4c to the 1st

Current low this month 10.0c to be the 3rd

[Summer Sun]

11.8c to be the 11th

0.2c below the 61 to 90 average

0.2c below the 81 to 10 average

__________________________________

Current high this month 13.4c to the 1st

Current low this month 10.0c to be the 3rd

[Don]

9 minutes ago, Summer Sun said:

11.8c to be the 11th

0.2c below the 61 to 90 average

0.2c below the 81 to 10 average

__________________________________

Current high this month 13.4c to the 1st

Current low this month 10.0c to be the 3rd

Creeping up.  Despite being wet, it has been mild in the south at least.

[summer blizzard]

Gavin in the other realm is estimating 11.27C to the 25th so without a big model change it looks like a close to average finish on the cards. 

[The PIT]

Sunny Sheffield at 10.4C -2.2C. Rainfall 58.3mm 70.4% of the monthly average. 

It's looking like this month may be like last month with little change in temperature from the first few days and the end result average. However the final figure hiding a fair cold spell and a fair warm spell during the 4 weeks.

[Whether Idle]

looking milder than some expected

Edited October 12, 2019 by Whether Idle

[Ultima Thule]

A finish of 11.7 not out of the question with mild Atlantic murk dominant.

[DAVID SNOW]

4 hours ago, Whether Idle said:

looking milder than some expected

Happy with 11.4.

Long way to go though, with a probable 0.3 downward correction.(just for you Scorcher)