Jump to content
Sign in to follow this  
Lettucing Gutted

October 2019 C.E.T. and EWP contests

Recommended Posts

Since the October 2019 CET thread hasn't been started yet, I'll start it this time.  I'll leave RJS to post all the usual averages and statistics though.

15.5C.  :oldsad:  Last sub 6C October in 1740.  Last sub 7C October in 1896.  Last sub 8C October in 1992.  Last sub 9C October in 1993.

200mm from monsoons and Atlantic garbage

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Mixed bag. First half a fair share of high pressure ridging but also low pressure moving in from the west.. 2nd half will be cooler with our first bite of something 'cold' in final 3rd. That's my hypothesis.

Going for 10.3°C and 95.3mm

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

(1) October C.E.T. averages and extremes

 

20.2 ... warmest day, 1st 1985

20.1 ... second warmest day, 1st 2011

 

13.3 ... warmest Oct 2001

13.1 ... second warmest Oct 2005

13.0 ... third warmest Octs, 1969 and 2006

12.9 ... fifth warmest Oct, 1995

12.8 ... sixth warmest Oct 1921

12.7 ... seventh warmest Oct  and warmest of 19th century 1831

12.6 ... eighth warmest Octs 1959, 2011

12.5 ... tenth warmest Octs 1968, 2013, 2014

12.4 ... 13th warmest Oct 2017

12.3 ... tied 14th and warmest of 18th century 1731 (with 1811)

12.1 and 12.2 ... have never occurred in all 360 years

12.0 ... only occurrence was 1818 (16th warmest)

11.9 ... 1990 (from here down to coldest months, occurrences including ties before 1981 are not listed)

11.8 ... 

11.7 ... 1989, 1996

11.6 ... 2009

11.5 ... 

11.4 ... 

11.3 ... mean 2001-2018

11.2 ...

11.1 ... 1984

11.0 ... mean 1991-2018 and 1989-2018 ... ... 1985, 1986, 2015

10.9 ... mean 1986-2015 ... ... ... 2007, 2016

10.8 ...

10.7 ... mean 1981-2010 ... ... ... 1999

10.6 ... mean 1961-1990 ... ... ... 1998, 2018

10.5 ... 1983, 2004

10.4 ... mean 1971-2000 ... ... ... 1988

10.3 ... 2000, 2010

10.2 ... mean 1901-2000 ... ... ... 1991, 1994, 1997

10.1 ... 1982, 2002

10.0 ...

 9.9 ...

 9.8 ...

 9.7(3) ... mean for all 360 years 1659-2018 ... ... ... 1987, 2008, 2012

 9.6 ...

 9.5 .... mean 1801-1900

 9.4 .... mean 1701-1800

 9.3 .... mean 1659-1700

 9.2 ... 2003

 8.6 ... 1981

 8.5 ... 1993

 7.8 .... tied 26th coldest Oct, coldest Oct recent past, 1974 and 1992

 7.5 .... tied 8th coldest Oct, coldest Oct 20th century 1905

 6.9 ... fifth coldest Oct 1896

 6.5 .... tied 3rd coldest Octs, 1683 and 1692

 6.4 .... second coldest Oct 1817

 5.3 .... coldest Oct 1740

 

 0.3 .... coldest day 29th, 1895 (since daily records began in 1772 -- 1740 could have produced a colder day)

__________________ _ _ _ 

Enter your CET forecast by Monday September 30th at midnight, or with increasing late penalties on the first three days of October.

===============================================================================

(2) Optional E.W.P. forecast contest

 

218.1 mm __ 1903 _ wettest 1766-2018... also wettest month of any name

188.0 mm __ 2000 _ wettest 1981-2018 (second wettest all Octobers).

180.2 mm __ 1987 _ third wettest October

104.1 mm __ mean for 1981-2010

 99.5 mm __ mean for 1989-2018

 95.6 mm __ mean for all 253 Octobers 1766 to 2018

 46.0 mm ___2016 _ driest 1981-2018 (46.7 in 1985 was a close second) 

 17.2 mm ___1978 _ driest since 1809 (1969 was close at 17.5 mm)

__ 8.8 mm __1781 _ driest 1766-2017 (Hadley) ... 1809 _ 10.9 mm and 1784 _ 15.7 mm also drier than 1978

note also: October is the wettest month 1981-2010 although November is wettest 1989-2018, and December is also wetter than October in that 30-year period.

The wettest 30-year average for October was 106.9 mm for 1865-1894, almost matched recently by 106.1 mm for 1986 - 2015. The driest 30-year average for October was 77.1 mm for 1946-75. 

__________________________ _ _ _ ___________________________________________________

Recent Oct EWP ... 75.8 in 2018, 51.5 in 2017, 46.0 in 2016, 68.4 in 2015, 118.3 in 2014, 157.6 in 2013, 127.7 in 2012.

__________________________________________________________________________________

Enter your EWP forecast with your CET forecast, same deadlines apply. 

Good luck ! ! 

 

Edited by Roger J Smith

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

10.2 and 66mm.

Sneaky feeling the warm Octobers are over now. 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
13 minutes ago, nn2013 said:

10.2 and 66mm.

Sneaky feeling the warm Octobers are over now. 

Certainly could be a cold start to October looking at the GEM and ECM although a long way to go before there is any certainty. It might end up being too west based or not dig far enough South.

Edited by feb1991blizzard

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Think October will be a mixed bag. Last year had chilly days amongst some warmer ones, likewise for 2017. 

 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

9.7*C and 70mm rain/snowfall, please. Cheers.

Probably starting fairly chilly. High Pressure eventually building to our East over Mainland Europe bringing a very warm spell. A very chilly end to the month with a cold unstable North-North-Easterly flow accompanied by embedded troughs bringing widespread heavy snow showers (I wish anyway lol).

Edited by DiagonalRedLine

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

10.7C, a generally cool and wet month with slow moving areas of low pressure. 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

10.9°C and 75.2mm for me please. 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

10.8 C and 100 mm please

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

120mm and I’ll go 9.7c with a view of adjusting.  Well below average for most of the month but with wild swings a mild blip anticipated after mid month to have an effect before Cold again backend.

 

BFTP 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Join the conversation

You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.
Note: Your post will require moderator approval before it will be visible.

Guest
Reply to this topic...

×   Pasted as rich text.   Restore formatting

  Only 75 emoji are allowed.

×   Your link has been automatically embedded.   Display as a link instead

×   Your previous content has been restored.   Clear editor

×   You cannot paste images directly. Upload or insert images from URL.

Sign in to follow this  

×
×
  • Create New...