October 2019 C.E.T. and EWP contests

[ItNeverSnowsInWindsor]

According to my calculations we need an average of 7.0c or below in the final 5 days to bring the CET down to about 10.3c before corrections assuming the 3 days prior return around 11c CETs.

[emmett garland]

1 minute ago, prolongedSnowLover said:

According to my calculations we need an average of 7.0c or below in the final 5 days to bring the CET down to about 10.3c before corrections assuming the 3 days prior return around 11c CETs.

My 11.1 c is doomed so

[feb1991blizzard]

2 minutes ago, prolongedSnowLover said:

According to my calculations we need an average of 7.0c or below in the final 5 days to bring the CET down to about 10.3c before corrections assuming the 3 days prior return around 11c CETs.

We were looking at potential air frosts but the latest ECM suite have just poo-pooed that so maybe i will revise up just a little.

[feb1991blizzard]

1 minute ago, emmett garland said:

My 11.1 c is doomed so

Yes - unfortunately no chance barring a ridiculous turnaround in the modelling, even if you maintained the 11.1 from yesterday which is practically impossible, you would still have a downward correction anyway.

[SteveB]

1 hour ago, prolongedSnowLover said:

Definitely below average, just a question of how much below... should get below 10c comfortably with the cold nights and days coming after Saturday’s rain

Hoping this is the start of more below average CET's, would be nice to see at least 3 out of the next five months below average.

[ItNeverSnowsInWindsor]

6 minutes ago, SteveB said:

Hoping this is the start of more below average CET's, would be nice to see at least 3 out of the next five months below average.

I’ll be going for a below average November too. Least the first week looks that way and need the recurring heights building to our NW’. Will need other factors to play ball though!

[SteveB]

1 hour ago, prolongedSnowLover said:

I’ll be going for a below average November too. Least the first week looks that way and need the recurring heights building to our NW’. Will need other factors to play ball though!

I think I might change mine, but not sure how low to go.

[Beet]

Judging by the recent posts here, looks like I probably won't be more than 0.5 off with this one as well. Good to know.

[feb1991blizzard]

1 hour ago, Beet said:

Judging by the recent posts here, looks like I probably won't be more than 0.5 off with this one as well. Good to know.

Yes, although i have have not been more than 0.5 out for the last 3 and that includes a 0.1 and 0.2 miss, yet i still cannot break into the top 10 - it is really hard

[The PIT]

Sunny Sheffield down to 10C -1.3C below average. Rainfall unchanged.

All eyes on tomorrow to see how far north the warm sector gets if we stay on the cold side could be a drop to around 9.8 or 9.7C on the mild side we probably stay at 9.9C before the last few days not a little more off. I reckon Sunny old Sheffield could end up around 9.4C to 9.6C. Rainfall passing the 100mm mark as well.

[kold weather]

On 22/10/2019 at 21:37, JeffC said:

Amazing stat re Dec 2015 given Storms Desmond, Eva and Frank!

Interestingly it wasn't *that* wet further south, though the month was exceptionally wet in Scotland, N.Wales, N.Ireland and N.England, so much so that Dec 2015 was the wettest UK month on record...

But for the south, rainfall totals were about average, a couple of spots were even a little below average in the far south, which meant in terms of the EWP, it did somewhat help to drag down the average to something a little less extreme.

[Roger J Smith]

The EWP seems likely to finish above 140 mm now, and I have reset the provisional scoring for 148 mm. The updated excel file (attached) has a new feature, scroll to the right to column CV to find the list of "best combined forecasts" of CET and EWP on a monthly basis from start of the EWP contests in Dec 2017 to last month. This month we'll have to wait and see.

The revised scoring only affected a few rankings from the earlier provisional (118.9 mm). Don and weather-history exchanged places in 4th (now w-h) and 5th (now Don) and Godber.1 moved up quite a few ranks to 7th with his top score for October. SteveB also gained several ranks. Otherwise it was mostly a case of a few going up 2-3 and most going down by one or not at all. Anything higher than 148 will have little further effect on the scoring outcome. As we are around 105 mm now, even a soaker on Friday-Saturday is going to have to do the business to get us to 148 mm and then there seems to be not much if any further rainfall unless the Tuesday-Wednesday system now expected to stay west comes closer before end of the month. 

As to CET, looks like it might finish around 10.6 before corrections and 10.3 or 10.4 afterwards? Depends on track of the Saturday low to some extent. 

EWP20182019OCT.xlsx

Edited October 24, 2019 by Roger J Smith

[JeffC]

3 hours ago, kold weather said:

Interestingly it wasn't *that* wet further south, though the month was exceptionally wet in Scotland, N.Wales, N.Ireland and N.England, so much so that Dec 2015 was the wettest UK month on record...

But for the south, rainfall totals were about average, a couple of spots were even a little below average in the far south, which meant in terms of the EWP, it did somewhat help to drag down the average to something a little less extreme.

Lucky them that had it not-quite-so-wet!

As one who was assisting with rescue coordination, it was bloody grim! That was Desmond...then Frank I think it was on Boxing day 2015? 

Graft!!

[kold weather]

Going to be a close run thing as to whether we can get to 150mm this month, the next 24hrs really do look very wet for some, but whether or not there is enough rain outside of the main zone is questionable.

Still some areas today are going to get quite a large amount, 24hrs totals may well get north of 100mm in places from 08z to 08z tomorrow.

[Summer Sun]

11.0c to be the 24th

Bang on the 61 to 90 average

0.1c below the 81 to 10 average

__________________________________

Current high this month 13.4c to the 1st

Current low this month 10.0c to be the 3rd

[The PIT]

Sunny Sheffield down to 9.9C -1.2C below normal. Rainfall 90.2mm 108.9% of the monthly average.

May go back up to 10C by tomorrow depending on how warm it gets tonight. Rainfall well above 100mm mark by tomorrow unless the rain suddenly dies away.

[cheeky_monkey]

cloudy Edmonton is at 3.3c which is -1.8c below normal ...cold weekend coming up with sub zero highs..so will drop a little bit more by months end.

[The PIT]

Sunny old Sheffield still at 9.9C -1.1C below normal, Rainfall 138.4mm 167.1% of the monthly average now where near our wettest on record though which was 198.1mm in 1998

[Summer Sun]

10.9c to be the 25th

Bang on the 61 to 90 average

0.1c below the 81 to 10 average

__________________________________

Current high this month 13.4c to the 1st

Current low this month 10.0c to be the 3rd

[feb1991blizzard]

Under 10 now my bet - the plummet is well underway.

[damianslaw]

Looking quite likely we will see our first below average CET value month against the 61-90 mean since March 2018.Only just below probably, but still below. Colder minima in the nights ahead will enable this to happen, maxima not far off average in the south despite today's warmth and perhaps something milder mid week 30-31st, below average in the north to close out rest of the month, indeed some appreciably below average means for northern half of the UK.

[Weather-history]

Rainfall totals have rocketed up, it now makes October 2019, the wettest months for England and Wales since January 2016.

[The PIT]

Sunny Sheffield down to 9.7C -1.2C below normal. Rainfall 151mm 182.4% of the monthly average.

Using the local forecast as a I guide would give us an final figure of 9.2C which would -0.8C below the average.

[Summer Sun]

10.9c to be the 26th

0.1c below the 61 to 90 average

Bang on the 81 to 10 average

__________________________________

Current high this month 13.4c to the 1st

Current low this month 10.0c to be the 3rd

[Roger J Smith]

EWP was up to 135 mm halfway through the recent rainstorm (end of 25th) and the additional amounts are probably at least 15 mm (trying to blend together maps with slightly different time frames) so we have reached 150 mm. Now the last day of the month looks wet too with perhaps 15 mm more to come, placing the end total around 165 mm. Never know if that system speeds up or juices up, we might get even closer to the top three forecasts but right now SteveB at 167 mm is in the driver's seat with I Remember Atlantic 252 at 188 mm, LG at his usual 200 mm and me at 215.7 mm (if we get to 167 than my score zooms up quite a bit, passing everyone between 80 and 118 mm, LG makes more modest gains too) almost all other scores are probably now set within 0.2 to 0.5 of where they could possibly end up with so few left to change for the better (see previous post for excel file set to 148 mm).