October 2019 C.E.T. and EWP contests

[feb1991blizzard]

3 minutes ago, prolongedSnowLover said:

Could be very close to the 81-10 avg as long as the colder incursions occur as progged by the models.

Could be lower if those cold incursions occur i would suggest.

[Summer Sun]

11.3c to be the 20th

Bang on the 61 to 90 average

Bang on the 81 to 10 average

__________________________________

Current high this month 13.4c to the 1st

Current low this month 10.0c to be the 3rd

[feb1991blizzard]

3 minutes ago, Summer Sun said:

11.3c to be the 20th

Bang on the 61 to 90 average

Bang on the 81 to 10 average

__________________________________

Current high this month 13.4c to the 1st

Current low this month 10.0c to be the 3rd

Surprising that the 61-90 and 81-10 averages are the same.

[summer blizzard]

49 minutes ago, prolongedSnowLover said:

Could be very close to the 81-10 avg as long as the colder incursions occur as progged by the models.

Gavin from the other realm was estimating 10.88C however the Euro would deliver a cooler outcome. 

[cheeky_monkey]

Cloudy Edmonton is at 3.6c to 20th that's -1.5c below normal...looks likely October will be 9th below average month in a row here.

[DAVID SNOW]

GFS showing a max of 6c for Stonyhurst Friday, Meto say 13c....

[The PIT]

Sunny Sheffield at 10.1C -1.5C below normal. Rainfall 88.2mm 106.5% of the monthly average.  Latest GFS now brings in winter rather than summer I guess it's a game of wait and see if it changes it mind rapidly again. ECM not out yet so although it was showing a cold outlook this morning. However if they are right a well below month is suddenly on the cards.

[Roger J Smith]

8 hours ago, summer blizzard said:

Definitely headed for the wettest since 2013 then.

Rodger, when was the last month to reach 150mm.

For months of any name, the last one was Jan 2014 (184.6), although Dec 2015 and Jan 2016 were both just under 150. If we beat that, then the next high going back in time is Nov 2009 at 192.1 mm. Beating that we would have to go back to Nov 1940 (196.5 mm). At that point there would be three wetter months back in the more distant past, one October (1903) and the other two Novembers (1770, 1852). The wettest of them, 1903, produced 218.3 mm.

The most recent October to surpass 150 mm was 2013 with 157.6 mm.

Today's GFS ten-day drops down a bit to 30 mm (we are at 100 now) although it still brings two rain events through on Friday and Monday. 

I think the CET will finish around 10.7 given the current charts and an adjustment factor of 0.2.

[Roger J Smith]

Regarding the 1981-2010 average vs 1961-90, they only end up 0.1 apart at the end of the month (10.7 vs 10.6) but the running average for 1991-2020 is converging on 10.9 or 11.0.

[ItNeverSnowsInWindsor]

All of a sudden a below average October beckons (and an autumn at least until October)

[Summer Sun]

11.2c to be the 20th

Bang on the 61 to 90 average

0.1c below the 81 to 10 average

__________________________________

Current high this month 13.4c to the 1st

Current low this month 10.0c to be the 3rd

[The PIT]

Sunny Sheffield still at 10.1C -1.4C below normal. Rainfall unchanged at 88.2mm 106.5% of the monthly average. Good chance on Friday we will pass the 100mm mark for the month. If it does it's going to make it a funny year with only one month being close to normal, four very dry and five very wet

[JeffC]

On 21/10/2019 at 19:28, Roger J Smith said:

For months of any name, the last one was Jan 2014 (184.6), although Dec 2015 and Jan 2016 were both just under 150. If we beat that, then the next high going back in time is Nov 2009 at 192.1 mm. Beating that we would have to go back to Nov 1940 (196.5 mm). At that point there would be three wetter months back in the more distant past, one October (1903) and the other two Novembers (1770, 1852). The wettest of them, 1903, produced 218.3 mm.

The most recent October to surpass 150 mm was 2013 with 157.6 mm.

Today's GFS ten-day drops down a bit to 30 mm (we are at 100 now) although it still brings two rain events through on Friday and Monday. 

I think the CET will finish around 10.7 given the current charts and an adjustment factor of 0.2.

Amazing stat re Dec 2015 given Storms Desmond, Eva and Frank!

[Walsall Wood Snow]

11 hours ago, Summer Sun said:

11.2c to be the 20th

Bang on the 61 to 90 average

0.1c below the 81 to 10 average

__________________________________

Current high this month 13.4c to the 1st

Current low this month 10.0c to be the 3rd

I assume you meant the 21st?

[Summer Sun]

51 minutes ago, Walsall Wood Snow said:

I assume you meant the 21st?

Yes. A typo on my part.

[feb1991blizzard]

I told you this was gonna plummet.

[Summer Sun]

11.2c to be the 22nd

Bang on the 61 to 90 average

Bang on the 81 to 10 average

__________________________________

Current high this month 13.4c to the 1st

Current low this month 10.0c to be the 3rd

 

*Yesterday's update should have said to the 21st*

[feb1991blizzard]

24 minutes ago, Summer Sun said:

11.2c to be the 22nd

Bang on the 61 to 90 average

Bang on the 81 to 10 average

__________________________________

Current high this month 13.4c to the 1st

Current low this month 10.0c to be the 3rd

 

*Yesterday's update should have said to the 21st*

Its 11.1

[The PIT]

Sunny Sheffield down to 10C -1.4C below normal. Rainfall unchanged.

Big change in the forecast for Friday and Saturday. Saturday is now forecast to be very warm for us however it won't make much of a rise in our average so a below average month looks certain for us now. 

[Frost HoIIow]

I reckon the official figure looking like ending up below average. Been a long while since this happened. Possibly March 2018? 

Edited October 23, 2019 by Frost HoIIow

[Roger J Smith]

1 hour ago, Frost HoIIow said:

I reckon the official figure looking like ending up below average. Been a long while since this happened. Possibly March 2018? 

Yes if you mean 1961-90 normals as used by the Met Office, although May 2019 and October 2018 were both equal to those (zero anomalies). Those two as well as September 2018, June and January 2019 came in below the 1981-2010 normals as shown in this table:

 

Month _________ CET ______ 1961-90 avg __ 1971-2000 avg __ 1981-2010 avg

March 2018 _____ 4.9 _______ 5.7 ____________ 6.3 ___________ 6.6

Sept 2018 ______13.7 _______13.6 ___________ 13.7 __________ 14.1

Oct 2018 _______10.6 _______10.6 ___________ 10.4 __________ 10.7

Jan 2019 _______ 4.0 ________ 3.9 ____________ 4.2 ___________ 4.4

May 2019 ______11.1 ________11.1 ___________ 11.3 __________ 11.7

June 2019 _____ 14.2 ________14.1 ___________ 14.1 _________ 14.5

Oct 2019 _______ ???? ______ 10.6 ____________ 10.4 _________ 10.7

(worth mentioning that my averages for 1971-2000 and 1981-2010 are based on means of monthly means while I think the Met Office must use averages of mean monthly max and min, since both May and June round out 0.1 higher in my data set despite having the same monthly values (just cross-checked that), the averages for May and June are 11.163 and 14.157 indicating that there were totals of monthly means in excess of 11.15 and 14.15 by four and two respectively, but as some of those might have been 0.05 high as rounded averages of max and min, it would account for the different outcomes. Therefore some of my 1971-2000 and 1981-2010 calculated means might be 0.1 higher than theirs as well (since I don't have a source to check I can't say). All averages of monthly means taken at random would be 0.3 too high, if we assume half of them hide a rounding and half don't. For example, the June 1961-90 average is based on a surplus of 4.7 degrees over 14 x 30. But that 4.7 might contain (at random) 15 cases of rounding upwards by .05, or .75, so it is actually 3.95 degrees, which divided by 30 is .13 not .16. The actual number of rounded cases is unknown but would likely fall between 10 and 20 almost every time. So if you ever use the data and derive averages that way, be aware that official averages can be marginally lower because they are based on the net average of max and min where the rounding is only done one time rather than 30.

 

Edited October 23, 2019 by Roger J Smith

[Summer Sun]

11.0c to be the 23rd

0.1c below the 61 to 90 average

0.1c below the 81 to 10 average

__________________________________

Current high this month 13.4c to the 1st

Current low this month 10.0c to be the 3rd

[ItNeverSnowsInWindsor]

On 21/10/2019 at 11:35, feb1991blizzard said:

Could be lower if those cold incursions occur i would suggest.

Definitely below average, just a question of how much below... should get below 10c comfortably with the cold nights and days coming after Saturday’s rain

[emmett garland]

I would love someone to put in the rolling C.E.T

[feb1991blizzard]

7 minutes ago, emmett garland said:

I would love someone to put in the rolling C.E.T

11.0

8 minutes ago, prolongedSnowLover said:

Definitely below average, just a question of how much below... should get below 10c comfortably with the cold nights and days coming after Saturday’s rain

Im hoping for 10.1, still don't think Mr Murr's 9.5 is out of the question believe it or not, probably need a bit too much downward correction for that though (around 0.5)

Will likely go just below 10 which will mean i bust on high side, i think people laughed at that when i said that would happen a while back, i think they thought i was reading too much into FI modelling but i was looking at ensembles.

Edited October 24, 2019 by feb1991blizzard