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October 2019 C.E.T. and EWP contests


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Posted
  • Location: Shoeburyness, SE Essex
  • Weather Preferences: Cool clear sunny weather all year.
  • Location: Shoeburyness, SE Essex
5 minutes ago, summer blizzard said:

I think they are almost similar for the month (could be wrong) because i think the 71-00 average was cooler than 61-90. 

There were couple of months where this incessant warming of the averages hasnt affected them.

October is one of them, there must be some sort of reason why it hasnt. 

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Posted
  • Location: Leeds/Bradford border, 185 metres above sea level, around 600 feet
  • Location: Leeds/Bradford border, 185 metres above sea level, around 600 feet
48 minutes ago, seaside 60 said:

There were couple of months where this incessant warming of the averages hasnt affected them.

October is one of them, there must be some sort of reason why it hasnt. 

It's just random variation. If climate change produces more high pressure in cooler months it could for example encourage colder values. 

A rising tide will probably lift all boats eventually but its not uniform. 

At any rate the plethora of warm October's this decade will probably raise it for the 1991-2020 average.

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Posted
  • Location: York
  • Weather Preferences: Long warm summer evenings. Cold frosty sunny winter days.
  • Location: York
45 minutes ago, summer blizzard said:

It's just random variation. If climate change produces more high pressure in cooler months it could for example encourage colder values. 

A rising tide will probably lift all boats eventually but its not uniform. 

At any rate the plethora of warm October's this decade will probably raise it for the 1991-2020 average.

This is were I get upset. Yes climatic patterns may change so that more high pressure occurs as you note but unless you are able to fully explain this in the context of greater levels of CO2 then the use of the term climate change is invalid

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Posted
  • Location: Sheffield South Yorkshire 160M Powering the Sheffield Shield
  • Weather Preferences: Any Extreme
  • Location: Sheffield South Yorkshire 160M Powering the Sheffield Shield

Sunny Sheffield still at 10.4C -1.8C below normal. Rainfall 79.9mm 96.5% of the monthly average.

Average temp probably will drop a bit by Sunday helped by cold nights. Pretty good chance of landing a cold month here.

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Posted
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
  • Weather Preferences: Heavy disruptive snowfall.
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
12 minutes ago, Ultima Thule said:

With an unsettled and mild finish possible to October, I d expect the  CET to roll in around 11.5 after adjustments. Frost free cloudy nights in the final week  will be the key.

A lot lower than that for me - at least a degree lower.

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Posted
  • Location: Rossland BC Canada
  • Location: Rossland BC Canada

There are some uneven details in the recent warming, both for Britain's CET and for the Toronto records which run from 1840 to present. I have just finished a project updating daily records that were published in 1967 for what was then 128 years of data. The same location (downtown Toronto, not the airport) has continued to record temperatures and precipitation, so I looked through the last 52 years to update the daily and monthly data. What I found was rather unexpected. Daily temperature records have been falling much more frequently in the shoulder seasons (Nov-early Dec, and late Feb-early April). Only the most robust record temperatures in those intervals have survived. But almost all the mid-winter, late spring, summer, and early autumn records are unmodified. Average temperatures at this location without adjustment like the CET for urban heat island, have risen steadily since 1890, except for the period from 1960 to 1982 which turned colder at times (but not back to the levels of the 19th century). This appears to be a combined influence of a naturally warming climate (after 1890) and the urban heat island once Toronto became a large city and surrounded the location of the weather station (which started out in a rural setting in the 1840s to 1870s). The frequency of record lows already begins to drop off after 1890, and there were not many more of those from 1921 to 1967 than since. Record lows can still occur, but it takes an exceptionally cold air mass with enough wind speed to overcome the urban heat island. 

There have been notable peaks in temperature since the colder mid-1990s. Those were often  related to strong El Nino events. The recent peaks were around 1998, 2002, 2006, 2012, and 2016. When Britain had the record warmth in Nov-Dec 2015, Toronto was also setting records. But other trends go well out of phase. For example, winters of 1993 and 1994 were notably cold. Winters of 2010 and 2011 varied from mild to rather cold. 

I think the mechanics of the recent warming, whatever its ratio of causes in natural, solar and human realms, must be fairly complex. Some parts of the year have responded differently (on average of the data so far), but this could be random chance too. Just like in Britain, August has not done much to keep up since 1995, and there hasn't been a new daily record in that month, with better warming outcomes in July and September. You would think that a warming climate would really lengthen the summer and make August even more similar to July than previously, but the opposite seems to be holding, with August quite moderate. 

Rainfall and snowfall records have continued to be set at about the expected pace. There is no real evidence in this Toronto data for more extreme weather events. The all-time rainfall and snowfall records have been approached but not surpassed, about what you might expect at random when adding 52 years to 128 existing years. The number of daily rainfall and snowfall records broken is about what you might expect, one-third or thereabouts. Nor has there been any real change in the frequency of drought from these data sets. 

To be honest, if there wasn't a lot of publicity for a theory of AGW, you might look at the temperature data and say, the urban heat island has continued to increase slowly. But if we looked at some less urban stations with long periods, there would probably be a faint signal of warming increasing since 1990, even though it was generally present since about 1970 except for a brief interval 1978-82 (Oct-82 as Dec 82 was notably warm). If I applied the same corrections that they use for the CET to this data set, it might adjust some rankings and remove a small number of records while adding overnight minimum records, several close calls have happened in recent years that I am sure would have set records without the urban effect. December has had several recent lows that would have been daily records on quite a few adjacent days but happened to fall against the more robust older records. For example, -11 F on Dec 25, 1980 would have broken the Dec 24 record low of -9 but lost to -17 on its own date.

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Posted
  • Location: Darlington
  • Weather Preferences: Warm dry summers
  • Location: Darlington

11.7c to be the 16th

0.2c above the 61 to 90 average

Bang on the 81 to 10 average

__________________________________

Current high this month 13.4c to the 1st

Current low this month 10.0c to be the 3rd

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Posted
  • Location: Sheffield South Yorkshire 160M Powering the Sheffield Shield
  • Weather Preferences: Any Extreme
  • Location: Sheffield South Yorkshire 160M Powering the Sheffield Shield

Sunny Sheffield at 10.4C still -1.7C below normal. Rainfall 81.6mm 98.6% of the monthly average.

No idea where the CET is going to finish. An Indian summer could really push things up.

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Posted
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
  • Weather Preferences: Heavy disruptive snowfall.
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
3 minutes ago, Ultima Thule said:

I'm not tied to a prediction - just saying what I'm feeling and seeing in the output.  Id be surprised if the official CET ended lower than 11.3 or higher than 11.8,

Yes - understood, i do actually think it will be fair bit lower though, not necessarily low enough for my 10.1 but i think lower than 11.

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Posted
  • Location: Darlington
  • Weather Preferences: Warm dry summers
  • Location: Darlington

11.6c to be the 17th

0.1c above the 61 to 90 average

Bang on the 81 to 10 average

__________________________________

Current high this month 13.4c to the 1st

Current low this month 10.0c to be the 3rd

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Posted
  • Location: Sheffield South Yorkshire 160M Powering the Sheffield Shield
  • Weather Preferences: Any Extreme
  • Location: Sheffield South Yorkshire 160M Powering the Sheffield Shield

Sunny Sheffield down to 10.3C -1.7C below normal. Rainfall 86.5mm 104.5% of the monthly average.

Tonight's GFS has moved away from cold night idea so our night time temps are likely to rise offsetting any day time drop so I'm not expecting a large drop in the next five days.

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Posted
  • Location: Rossland BC Canada
  • Location: Rossland BC Canada

The EWP had reached 84 mm as of the 16th and probably added about 10 mm to 12z today when the GFS ten-day estimate begins. That is quite low for most of the grid, rising to 20-30 mm in parts of Wales, so it could be adding as little as 5-10 mm. The charts for 28th to 31st are also dry. The grand total from this is little more than 100 mm, a bit lower than the provisional used in the table I posted earlier but I'll wait to the end of the month to issue an update as this difference is not going to move many scores especially near the top. 

The rest of the month looks a bit colder despite a few mild days here and there, would still be thinking mid to high 10s for a finish. 

There has been very little variation in the mean daily temperatures so far this month, the range being only 5.8 deg (from 7.8 to 13.6). I will revisit that after the final values to see how it compares with the lowest ranges. October 1817, the coldest of the era with daily temperatures available, had a monthly max of only 9.0 (on the 30th), and had a lowest value of 3.6 on the 2nd (which set a daily record) so the range there was 5.4, one at least therefore likely to beat this year's small range after temperatures are finalized. Lest it be thought that the sun had run out of energy at that point, November 1817 then broke the 10 degree mark on 14 of the first 18 days and beat the October max on two more for a total of 16, December first was also milder than any day in October 1817, as were 12th Jan and 25th Feb of 1818. March 1818 was not able to produce a warmer day however. 

Just scrolling down the daily temperatures it is quite easy to pick out Octobers with very few mild days (because of the visual difference between two and three digit numbers) so without doing a big number crunch, I could see that these other Octobers had an unusual lack of warm days ... with October 1817 at zero days above 10, the other contenders were 1784 (2 days above 10), 1808 (also two, 5th-6th Oct, and no more 10+ days all year or through most of the winter, one each in Feb and Mar although barely in each case, then also none in April 1809, the next time two consecutive days broke 10 was 7th and 8th of May, 1809). We never think of 1808-1809 as one of those classic cold winters but that has to be the greatest absence of warmth for the winter half year, seven entire months with two days at or above 10 (and only 10.1 tops on 23rd of March). The futility list then resumes with 3 days of 10+ in October 1820 and also 1852, 1885, and 1892; since then the lowest number and second place to 1817, has been one day (26th) in October 1974. The cold October of 1993 had ten days at or above 10 (all before the 13th when it turned cold) and few others have gone lower than half of their days above 10.

In modern times about 80% or more of days in October exceed 10 degrees and the first month to get all 31 was October 1945. Since then 2001, 05 and 06 have matched that feat. Of the four of them, the lowest daily mean in each case was 10.1, 10.4, 10.1 and 10.2 so that the warmest October (2001) takes this award as well. 

_____________________________________________________________________________

FYI, the November thread will be posted by Saturday morning, I am going to work on it later today and post it this evening here. 

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Posted
  • Location: Sheffield South Yorkshire 160M Powering the Sheffield Shield
  • Weather Preferences: Any Extreme
  • Location: Sheffield South Yorkshire 160M Powering the Sheffield Shield

Sunny Sheffield at 10.3C still -1.5C below average. Rainfall 87.5mm 105.7% of the monthly average. Not much in the way of rain forecast so unlikely to break the 100mm barrier.

GFS has a cold blast to end October with while the ECM indicates an Indian summer. So CET can still go either side of average although for us as time goes on the odds slip more towards a cool month. 

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Posted
  • Location: Darlington
  • Weather Preferences: Warm dry summers
  • Location: Darlington

11.5c to be the 18th

0.1c above the 61 to 90 average

Bang on the 81 to 10 average

__________________________________

Current high this month 13.4c to the 1st

Current low this month 10.0c to be the 3rd

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Posted
  • Location: Sheffield South Yorkshire 160M Powering the Sheffield Shield
  • Weather Preferences: Any Extreme
  • Location: Sheffield South Yorkshire 160M Powering the Sheffield Shield

Sunny Sheffield at 10.2C -1.5C below average. Rainfall up to 87.6mm 105.8% of the monthly rainfall.

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Posted
  • Location: Darlington
  • Weather Preferences: Warm dry summers
  • Location: Darlington

11.4c to be the 19th

0.1c above the 61 to 90 average

Bang on the 81 to 10 average

__________________________________

Current high this month 13.4c to the 1st

Current low this month 10.0c to be the 3rd

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Posted
  • Location: Rossland BC Canada
  • Location: Rossland BC Canada

EWP was at 99 mm after 18 days and added one or two on Saturday to reach 100 mm. The GFS has backed off its earlier dry look with two rainfall events expected now before the month ends. The additional amounts look to be around 40-50 mm potentially, so now we're heading into the top portions of the forecast set, although not yet high enough to rescue mine from a relatively low score. Will say 150 mm the new over-under. There are only these seven forecasts above the annual leader (BFTV) with 130 mm who looks to increase his lead now as these seven players are all below 15th place currently. The high forecasts are shown in order of departure from the target of 150 mm. This does not mean they are top seven scores, the larger departures here will be outscored by quite a few below 130 mm unless the final outcome goes higher than 150. 

There's a pretty good chance that the first five in this list will end up in the top five to ten in scoring but in what order yet to be determined. 

150 mm __ Godber.1

140 mm __ Steve Murr

134 mm __ virtualsphere

167 mm __ SteveB

130 mm __ Born from the Void

188 mm __ I Remember Atlantic 252

200 mm __ Lettucing Gutted

215.7 mm __ Roger J Smith

 

Edited by Roger J Smith
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Posted
  • Location: Leeds/Bradford border, 185 metres above sea level, around 600 feet
  • Location: Leeds/Bradford border, 185 metres above sea level, around 600 feet

Definitely headed for the wettest since 2013 then.

Rodger, when was the last month to reach 150mm.

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