October 2019 C.E.T. and EWP contests

[snowray]

2 hours ago, DAVID SNOW said:

Happy with 11.4.

Long way to go though, with a probable 0.3 downward correction.(just for you Scorcher)

Yes I make you right there, a very wise prediction that 11.4.

[Don]

19 minutes ago, snowray said:

Yes I make you right there, a very wise prediction that 11.4.

11.1C could still be in with a chance too. 

[feb1991blizzard]

Still think 10.1 in with an outside chance.

[Weather-history]

Looks like being the wettest first half to autumn for England and Wales since 2000

[Summer Sun]

11.8c to be the 12th

0.1c below the 61 to 90 average

0.2c below the 81 to 10 average

__________________________________

Current high this month 13.4c to the 1st

Current low this month 10.0c to be the 3rd

[ItNeverSnowsInWindsor]

Need a few frosty nights soon to pull down the CET!

[The PIT]

Sunny Sheffield at 10.5C -2C below normal. Rainfall 58.7mm 70.9% of the monthly average

[DAVID SNOW]

13 hours ago, snowray said:

Yes I make you right there, a very wise prediction that 11.4.

All the credit goes to you, seeing as you picked it first.

If it ends up right!

[snowray]

1 hour ago, DAVID SNOW said:

All the credit goes to you, seeing as you picked it first.

If it ends up right!

So kind of you blush..

Yes, IF its right of course, I'm just hoping that we don't see too much in the way of frosts particularly in the last week of the month.

[Roger J Smith]

The EWP was already 55 mm after eleven days and probably sits closer to 65 now with heavy rain across southern England on the 12th. 

The GFS ten-day estimate is around 30 mm with some pockets of much heavier rain in the west. Most of this appears likely to fall on Monday-Tuesday so we won't have long to wait to find out if that estimate is on track. The GFS from day 11 to day 16 (29th 12z) is relatively dry looking, so would add only 5 mm from that.

The grand total of all these would be 100 mm. However, the dry trend near end of the run is by no means guaranteed. 

As to the CET, the pattern looks similar going forward, seasonal trends will force the current numbers down slightly but can't see it going much below 11 even towards the end which does look a bit colder than average. But after corrections likely to be in the mid to high 10s if these maps verify. 

[Summer Sun]

11.8c to be the 13th

Bang on the 61 to 90 average

0.1c below the 81 to 10 average

__________________________________

Current high this month 13.4c to the 1st

Current low this month 10.0c to be the 3rd

 

[The PIT]

Sunny Sheffield at 10.6C -1.8C below normal. Rainfall 63.7mm 76.9% of the monthly average.

[Man With Beard]

A very wide envelope for the final CET yet, but I'd bet on a finish in the 10s. A few frosts will crash the figures, and there's enough of a suggestion we'll get a high pressure period at some point before the month's end. 

[DAVID SNOW]

FWIW The latest GFS only shows 1 slight frost and that's on the 29th.(op run)

[Summer Sun]

11.7c to be the 14th

Bang on the 61 to 90 average

0.1c below the 81 to 10 average

__________________________________

Current high this month 13.4c to the 1st

Current low this month 10.0c to be the 3rd

 

[feb1991blizzard]

 

@Roger J Smith  Are we sure the 10c month won't be breached on the low side? - that is still with 6 days left and that is a setup that looks like it could last for a week and give CET returns not a million miles above 5c

[feb1991blizzard]

16 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

 

@Roger J Smith  Are we sure the 10c month won't be breached on the low side? - that is still with 6 days left and that is a setup that looks like it could last for a week and give CET returns not a million miles above 5c

EDIT : In fact the temps on the 12z at the end would mean i would actually bust on the high side, and would even bring @Steve Murr's 9.5c into the equation, there is some 3c days in there.

 

[The PIT]

Sunny Sheffield down to 10.4C -1.9C below normal. Rainfall 79.6mm 96.1% of the monthly average. This evening GFS off on a cold trip in lala. If it came off it would be significant cold month here.

[Roger J Smith]

EWP was 71 mm after 13 days, added about 8 to 10 yesterday (20-30 mm swath covering about a third of the country) so that would take it to around 80 going into the GFS-10 day outlook period which promises only 20-25 as a grid average, once again wetter in parts of the west than elsewhere. Much of that would be coming tomorrow to Friday. 

The last six days of the GFS run beyond that estimate start out cold and relatively dry, and turn very wet on the 31st at the end of the run. Verbatim this would add perhaps 30-40 mm, for a grand total of 130-145 mm. However, the cold spell is far enough out and of long duration that I suspect any downgrade would likely bring about a possibly wetter period in general although perhaps without that big amount at the end, so the main unknown at this point is how far past 100 mm we end up going, I think almost all forecasts above the 119 mm that I used for the provisional table have some chance, and at this point anything below 80 will probably be locked into the points shown there or slightly lower if a few of the high forecasts get a boost, having said that, there aren't too many above 130 anyway so the lower end of the points except for very high amounts would probably now be almost locked in. There could be some changes around the middle to top of the scoring estimates if amounts drift a lot higher. 

I would agree that pressure will fall on the CET to push it below 10 if the charts verify, but as we know, cold spells on GFS past day seven are not a high probability outcome, even so, any kind of clearing of skies for a few nights might get the CET down towards 10 before adjustments. So I'm thinking 10 might be the over/under at this point. But 9.0 is within reach on those charts. 

[summer blizzard]

10.5C would make it the coolest since 2012. 

9.6C would make it the coolest since 2003.

 

[damianslaw]

Quite probably reached the high point mid month, and a gradual fall can be expected from here on in, perhaps notably so if synoptics shown by some of the models today verifies, key factor - cold nights., along way to go yet.. but at this range, a very near average month most likely.

[Weather-history]

On 13/10/2019 at 05:52, Weather-history said:

Looks like being the wettest first half to autumn for England and Wales since 2000

Around 204mm for the first half of autumn, recent autumns have not been that wet. It only requires about another 60mm and we would have already overtaken the last 5 previous autumns' rainfall totals

[Summer Sun]

11.7c to be the 15th

0.1c above the 61 to 90 average

0.1c below the 81 to 10 average

__________________________________

Current high this month 13.4c to the 1st

Current low this month 10.0c to be the 3rd

[seaside 60]

1 hour ago, Summer Sun said:

11.7c to be the 15th

0.1c above the 61 to 90 average

0.1c below the 81 to 10 average

__________________________________

Current high this month 13.4c to the 1st

Current low this month 10.0c to be the 3rd

Thats interesting to note there is almost no difference between the 61-90 and 81 to 10 averages on this date.

[summer blizzard]

25 minutes ago, seaside 60 said:

Thats interesting to note there is almost no difference between the 61-90 and 81 to 10 averages on this date.

I think they are almost similar for the month (could be wrong) because i think the 71-00 average was cooler than 61-90.