October 2019 C.E.T. and EWP contests

[DAVID SNOW]

11.4 and not a clue.

[feb1991blizzard]

82mm rainfall please with my earlier CET unchanged.

Edited September 30, 2019 by feb1991blizzard

[Beet]

9.9 please. I think we're actually going to have a cold one.

Edited September 30, 2019 by Beet

[reef]

11.5C and 119mm

Slightly above average for both temperatures and rainfall. I was tempted to go cooler than average, but its always a risk these days!

[SMU]

9.5c 

140mm

[seaside 60]

11.3c

84mm

[NeilN]

Can I change?

9.4c and 99mm

[Don]

11.1C and 110mm, please.  A fairly nondescript month.

Edited September 30, 2019 by Don

[Godber 1]

10.5c and 150mm please.

[Derecho]

I'll go for a rather mild 11.5C despite the cool start

[Roger J Smith]

... This will be edited to include late entries ... consensus so far 10.9 C and 102.0 mm ...

 

Table of entries for October 2019

 _ number in brackets shows order of entry _ second number is for EWP when different from CET order of entry _

 

15.5 __ 200.0 __ Lettucing Gutted (1) ______________ 10.9 __ 123.0 __ coldest winter (L1-3)

12.5 __ 102.0 __ syed2878 (41) ___________________10.8 __ 100.0 __ Jeff C (10) _______

12.1 __ 134.0 __ virtualsphere (13) _________________10.8 __ 111.0 __ Bobd29 (3) ______

12.0 __ ------ __ Jonathan F. (12) ___________________10.7 __ ------ __ Summer Blizzard (8) _

12.0 ___ 35.0 __ Thundershine (38) ________________10.7 __ 107.2 __ Midlands Ice Age (36)

11.6 __ ------ __ Man with Beard (25) ________________  10.7 __ ------ __ sundog (43) _______

11.6 __ 130.0 __ Born from the Void (L1-4) ___________10.7 __ 104.1 __ 1981-2010 average

11.5 __ ------ __ Summer Sun (26) __________________10.6 __ ------ __ Leo97t (29) _______

11.5 __ 188.0 __ I Remember Atlantic 252 (30) _______ 10.5 __ 79.4 __ Kirkcaldy Weather (5)

11.5 __ 119.0 __ Reef (47) _______________________ 10.5 __ 116.0 __ Weather26 (4) ____

11.5 __ ------ __ Quicksilver1989 (53) _______________ 10.5 __ 109.0 __ Stationary Front (39)

11.5 __ 100.0 __ Mulzy (55) ______________________ 10.5 __ 150.0 __ Godber.1 (52) _____

11.4 __ ------ __ snowray (19) _____________________ 10.4 __ ------ __ Prolonged SnowLover (11)

11.4 __ ------ __ DAVID SNOW (45) _________________10.3 ___ 95.3 __ CheesePuffScott (2) __

11.3 __ 167.0 __ SteveB (17) ______________________10.2 __ 120.0 __ Booferking (54) _____

11.3 ___ 84.0 __ seaside60 (49) ___________________ 10.1 ___ 82.0 __ Feb1991Blizzard (23,45*)

11.2 __ 100.0 __ EdStone (21,9*) ___________________10.1 __ ------ __ damianslaw (35) _____

11.2 ___ 65.0 __ Norrance (42) ____________________ 10.0 ___ 64.0 __ brmbrmcar (28) _____

11.2 ___ ------ __ Mark Bayley (L1-1) ________________ 10.0 __ 215.7 __ Roger J Smith (32, 51*)

11.2 ___ ------ __ Duncan McAlister (L1-5) ____________

11.1 ___ 88.0 __ Pegg24 (18) _____________________ 10.0 ___  85.0 __ weather-history (44)

11.1 ___ 56.0 __ Emmett Garland (7) _________________9.9 __ ------ __ Walsall Wood Snow (31)

11.1 __ 103.0 __ Stargazer (27) _____________________ 9.9 ___ 96.0 __ daniel* (33) _______

11.1 __ 110.0 __ Don (51) _________________________ 9.9 __ ------ __ Beet (46) __________

11.0 __ ------ __ dancerwithwings (20) ________________ 9.8 __ 120.0 __ freeze (24)________

11.0 ___ 75.0 __ The PIT (34) ______________________ 9.8 __ 103.0 __ jonboy (40) _______  

11.0 ___ 99.5 __ 1989-2018 average ________________ 9.7 __ 120.0 __ Blast from the Past (14)

10.9 ___ ------ __ Relativistic (16) ___________________ 9.7 ___ 70.0 __ DiagonalRedLine (6) _

10.9 ___ 98.0 __ Radiating Dendrite (15) _____________ 9.6 ___ ------ __ Kentish Man (L1-2) ___

10.9 ___ 75.2 __ Polar Gael (9) _____________________9.5 __ 140.0 __ Steve Murr (48) ______

10.9 __ 115.0 __ DR(S)NO (22) _____________________9.4 ___ 99.0 __ nn2013 (50) _________

10.9 __ 105.0 __ J10 (56) _________________________ 8.5 ___ 77.0 __ timmytour (37) _______

10.9 __ 103.0 ___ consensus 

__ 56 on-time forecasts, five that are one day late, total 61 ... consensus (median) __ 10.9

====================================================================================

EWP forecasts in order

215.7 _RJS ... ... 200 _LG ... ... 188 _IRA252 ... 167 SteveB ... 150 _Godb ... 140 _SMur ... 134 _vir ... 130 BFTV ...

123 _cw ... 120 _BFTP, fre, boof ... 119 _reef ... 116 _wx26 ... 115 _DRS ... 111 _Bob ... 110 _Don ... 109 SF ...107.2 _MIA

105 _J10 ...  104.1 _81-10 ... 103 _star, jon,  con ... 102 _syed, ...  100 _EdS, Jeff, Mul ...  99.5 _89-18 ... 99 _nn 

 98 _ Rad ... 96 _dan* ...  95.3 _CPS ...  88 _pegg ... 85 _w-h ... 84 _sea ... 82 _Feb ... 79.4 KW ... 77 _tim

 75.2 _PG ... 75 _Pit ... 70 _DRL ...  65 _Norr ... 64 _brm ... 56 _EG ... 35 _Thun

__ 41 on-time forecasts, two that are one day late, median (consensus) 103.0 mm __ 

 

Edited October 1, 2019 by Roger J Smith

[booferking]

120mm 10.2c

[mulzy]

11.5C and 100mm please.

[J10]

10.9c and 105mm bang on deadline

 

[Mark Bayley]

11.2c please

[Kentish Man]

Late entry and as it's still available 9.6C please

[coldest winter]

10.9 for me and 123mm rain

[BornFromTheVoid]

Ooops, a tad late. 11.6C and 130mm, thanks.

[Duncan McAlister]

Late again 11.2 please.

[Roger J Smith]

1981-2010 CET averages, cumulative and 1772 - 2018 extreme values

________________________________________________________________

 

Date __ CET __ cum ____ MAX ________ MIN ____________ Running CET extremes

01 ___ 12.9 ___ 12.9 ___ 20.2 (1985) ___ 6.1 (1808&1888) __ 20.2 (1985) ___ 6.1 (1808,88)
02 ___ 12.3 ___ 12.6 ___ 17.9 (2011) ___ 3.6 (1817) ________19.0 (2011) ___ 5.1 (1888)
03 ___ 12.1 ___ 12.4 ___ 19.8 (2011) ___ 4.7 (1817) ________19.3 (2011) ___ 5.2 (1888)
04 ___ 11.9 ___ 12.3 ___ 17.7 (1959) ___ 5.1 (1912) ________18.2 (2011) ___ 5.3 (1888)
05 ___ 11.6 ___ 12.2 ___ 17.9 (1886) ___ 4.6 (1888) ________17.7 (2011) ___ 5.2 (1888)

06 ___ 11.9 ___ 12.1 ___19.0 (1921) ___ 4.1 (1888) ________16.9 (1959) ___ 5.0 (1888)
07 ___ 11.7 ___ 12.1 ___16.9 (1921) ___ 3.5 (1829) ________16.6 (1959) ___ 5.0 (1888)
08 ___ 11.8 ___ 12.0 ___17.7 (1995) ___ 4.1 (1829) ________16.3 (1959) ___ 5.2 (1888)
09 ___ 11.9 ___ 12.0 ___17.5 (1995) ___ 3.3 (1852) ________16.3 (1921) ___ 5.5 (1888)
10 ___ 12.5 ___ 12.0 ___17.8 (1921) ___ 3.5 (1814) ________16.5 (1921) ___ 5.7 (1888)

11 ___ 11.7 ___ 12.0 ___ 17.6 (1978) ___ 3.9 (1860) ________16.5 (1921) ___ 6.0 (1888)
12 ___ 11.6 ___ 12.0 ___ 16.5 (1978) ___ 3.2 (1887) ________16.3 (1921) ___ 6.3 (1888)
13 ___ 11.4 ___ 11.9 ___ 18.5 (2018) ___ 2.2 (1838) ________16.0 (1921) ___ 6.4 (1888)
14 ___ 10.9 ___ 11.8 ___ 17.2 (2017) ___ 3.1 (1838) ________15.8 (1921) ___ 6.4 (1888)
15 ___ 10.8 ___ 11.8 ___ 15.7 (1930) ___ 2.5 (1843) ________15.4 (1921) ___ 6.4 (1888)

16 ___ 10.3 ___ 11.7 ___ 16.4 (2017) ___ 1.8 (1843) ________15.1 (1921) ___ 6.4 (1888)
17 ___ 10.0 ___ 11.6 ___ 15.6 (1897) ___ 2.5 (1824) ________14.9 (1921) ___ 6.5 (1888)
18 ___ 10.1 ___ 11.5 ___ 16.7 (2014) ___ 2.4 (1843) ________14.9 (1921) ___ 6.5 (1817)
19 ___ 10.0 ___ 11.4 ___ 16.3 (1921) ___ 1.5 (1813) ________15.0 (1921) ___ 6.4 (1817)

20 ____ 9.8 ___ 11.3 ___ 14.9 (1795) ___ 2.1 (1842) ________14.7 (1921) ___ 6.4 (1817)

21 ____ 9.6 ___ 11.3 ___ 15.2 (1998) ___ 1.2 (1842) ________14.5 (1921) ___ 6.4 (1817)
22 ____ 9.9 ___ 11.2 ___ 16.2 (1906) ___ 2.5 (1931) ________14.3 (1921) ___ 6.4 (1817)
23 ____ 9.6 ___ 11.1 ___ 14.4 (1998) ___ 0.9 (1859) ________14.0 (1921) ___ 6.4 (1817)
24 ____ 9.4 ___ 11.1 ___ 14.3 (2009) ___ 0.6 (1859) ________13.8 (1995) ___ 6.4 (1817)
25 ____ 9.4 ___ 11.0 __ 14.0 (1978, 2013) _ 2.0 (1784) ______13.7 (1995,2001) __ 6.4 (1817)
 

26 ____ 9.6 ___ 10.9 ___ 14.7 (1927) ___ 1.5 (1785) ________13.6 (1995,2001) __ 6.4 (1817)
27 ____ 9.8 ___ 10.9 ___ 16.7 (1888) ___ 1.4 (1869) ________13.6 (1995,2001) __ 6.4 (1817)
28 ____ 9.8 ___ 10.9 ___ 15.6 (1888) ___ 0.9 (1895) ________13.5 (2001) ___ 6.3 (1817)
29 ____ 8.9 ___ 10.8 __ 14.0 (1772,1984) _ 0.3 (1895) ______ 13.4 (2001) ___ 6.2 (1817)
30 ____ 9.2 ___ 10.7 ___ 15.5 (2005) ___ 0.7 (1836) ________13.4 (2001) ___ 6.3 (1817)
 
31 ____ 9.3 ___ 10.7 ___ 16.9 (2014) ___ 0.7 (1836) ________13.3 (2001) ___ 6.4 (1817)*

===================================================================

*1740 ended with 5.3 and probably had colder running CET values at any point than these values.

[Summer Sun]

13.4c to be the 1st

1.1c above the 61 to 90 average

0.5c above the 81 to 10 average

[snowray]

First extensive frosts around the CET zone of the autumn last night even in the south, I noticed that Benson was showing 0c at 7pm this morning so not just in the north of the area. So should see a big drop by day 3.

Edited October 3, 2019 by snowray

[Typhoon John]

I would have adjusted my entry slightly lower but missed the boat now.  Fingers crossed we have another month of two halfs with a warm up to put me in with a chance.

[Summer Sun]

11.0c to be the 2nd

1.2c below the 61 to 90 average

1.6c below the 81 to 10 average

[ItNeverSnowsInWindsor]

Expecting a nice big drop today

Edited October 4, 2019 by prolongedSnowLover