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October 2019 C.E.T. and EWP contests


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Posted
  • Location: Yorkshire Puddin' aka Kirkham, Lancashire, England, United Kingdom
  • Weather Preferences: cold winters, cold springs, cold summers and cold autumns
  • Location: Yorkshire Puddin' aka Kirkham, Lancashire, England, United Kingdom

Since the October 2019 CET thread hasn't been started yet, I'll start it this time.  I'll leave RJS to post all the usual averages and statistics though.

15.5C.  :oldsad:  Last sub 6C October in 1740.  Last sub 7C October in 1896.  Last sub 8C October in 1992.  Last sub 9C October in 1993.

200mm from monsoons and Atlantic garbage

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Posted
  • Location: Redlynch, Wiltshire / 110m asl
  • Weather Preferences: Cold snowy winters, warm springs, hot summers, warm then stormy autumn
  • Location: Redlynch, Wiltshire / 110m asl

Mixed bag. First half a fair share of high pressure ridging but also low pressure moving in from the west.. 2nd half will be cooler with our first bite of something 'cold' in final 3rd. That's my hypothesis.

Going for 10.3°C and 95.3mm

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Posted
  • Location: Rossland BC Canada
  • Location: Rossland BC Canada

(1) October C.E.T. averages and extremes

 

20.2 ... warmest day, 1st 1985

20.1 ... second warmest day, 1st 2011

 

13.3 ... warmest Oct 2001

13.1 ... second warmest Oct 2005

13.0 ... third warmest Octs, 1969 and 2006

12.9 ... fifth warmest Oct, 1995

12.8 ... sixth warmest Oct 1921

12.7 ... seventh warmest Oct  and warmest of 19th century 1831

12.6 ... eighth warmest Octs 1959, 2011

12.5 ... tenth warmest Octs 1968, 2013, 2014

12.4 ... 13th warmest Oct 2017

12.3 ... tied 14th and warmest of 18th century 1731 (with 1811)

12.1 and 12.2 ... have never occurred in all 360 years

12.0 ... only occurrence was 1818 (16th warmest)

11.9 ... 1990 (from here down to coldest months, occurrences including ties before 1981 are not listed)

11.8 ... 

11.7 ... 1989, 1996

11.6 ... 2009

11.5 ... 

11.4 ... 

11.3 ... mean 2001-2018

11.2 ...

11.1 ... 1984

11.0 ... mean 1991-2018 and 1989-2018 ... ... 1985, 1986, 2015

10.9 ... mean 1986-2015 ... ... ... 2007, 2016

10.8 ...

10.7 ... mean 1981-2010 ... ... ... 1999

10.6 ... mean 1961-1990 ... ... ... 1998, 2018

10.5 ... 1983, 2004

10.4 ... mean 1971-2000 ... ... ... 1988

10.3 ... 2000, 2010

10.2 ... mean 1901-2000 ... ... ... 1991, 1994, 1997

10.1 ... 1982, 2002

10.0 ...

 9.9 ...

 9.8 ...

 9.7(3) ... mean for all 360 years 1659-2018 ... ... ... 1987, 2008, 2012

 9.6 ...

 9.5 .... mean 1801-1900

 9.4 .... mean 1701-1800

 9.3 .... mean 1659-1700

 9.2 ... 2003

 8.6 ... 1981

 8.5 ... 1993

 7.8 .... tied 26th coldest Oct, coldest Oct recent past, 1974 and 1992

 7.5 .... tied 8th coldest Oct, coldest Oct 20th century 1905

 6.9 ... fifth coldest Oct 1896

 6.5 .... tied 3rd coldest Octs, 1683 and 1692

 6.4 .... second coldest Oct 1817

 5.3 .... coldest Oct 1740

 

 0.3 .... coldest day 29th, 1895 (since daily records began in 1772 -- 1740 could have produced a colder day)

__________________ _ _ _ 

Enter your CET forecast by Monday September 30th at midnight, or with increasing late penalties on the first three days of October.

===============================================================================

(2) Optional E.W.P. forecast contest

 

218.1 mm __ 1903 _ wettest 1766-2018... also wettest month of any name

188.0 mm __ 2000 _ wettest 1981-2018 (second wettest all Octobers).

180.2 mm __ 1987 _ third wettest October

104.1 mm __ mean for 1981-2010

 99.5 mm __ mean for 1989-2018

 95.6 mm __ mean for all 253 Octobers 1766 to 2018

 46.0 mm ___2016 _ driest 1981-2018 (46.7 in 1985 was a close second) 

 17.2 mm ___1978 _ driest since 1809 (1969 was close at 17.5 mm)

__ 8.8 mm __1781 _ driest 1766-2017 (Hadley) ... 1809 _ 10.9 mm and 1784 _ 15.7 mm also drier than 1978

note also: October is the wettest month 1981-2010 although November is wettest 1989-2018, and December is also wetter than October in that 30-year period.

The wettest 30-year average for October was 106.9 mm for 1865-1894, almost matched recently by 106.1 mm for 1986 - 2015. The driest 30-year average for October was 77.1 mm for 1946-75. 

__________________________ _ _ _ ___________________________________________________

Recent Oct EWP ... 75.8 in 2018, 51.5 in 2017, 46.0 in 2016, 68.4 in 2015, 118.3 in 2014, 157.6 in 2013, 127.7 in 2012.

__________________________________________________________________________________

Enter your EWP forecast with your CET forecast, same deadlines apply. 

Good luck ! ! 

 

Edited by Roger J Smith
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Posted
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
  • Weather Preferences: Heavy disruptive snowfall.
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
13 minutes ago, nn2013 said:

10.2 and 66mm.

Sneaky feeling the warm Octobers are over now. 

Certainly could be a cold start to October looking at the GEM and ECM although a long way to go before there is any certainty. It might end up being too west based or not dig far enough South.

Edited by feb1991blizzard
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Posted
  • Location: Trowbridge, Wilts
  • Weather Preferences: hot summers; frigid winters; golden fall; bright spring
  • Location: Trowbridge, Wilts

10.8C And 111mm for me please

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Posted
  • Location: Kirkcaldy, Fife, Scotland 20m ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Snow,Thunderstorms mix both for heaven THUNDERSNOW 😜😀🤤🥰
  • Location: Kirkcaldy, Fife, Scotland 20m ASL

10.5 C and 79.4 mm please

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Posted
  • Location: Solihull, Midlands. (Formerly DRL)
  • Weather Preferences: Sunshine, thunder, hail & heavy snow
  • Location: Solihull, Midlands. (Formerly DRL)

9.7*C and 70mm rain/snowfall, please. Cheers.

Probably starting fairly chilly. High Pressure eventually building to our East over Mainland Europe bringing a very warm spell. A very chilly end to the month with a cold unstable North-North-Easterly flow accompanied by embedded troughs bringing widespread heavy snow showers (I wish anyway lol).

Edited by DiagonalRedLine
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Posted
  • Location: Leeds/Bradford border, 185 metres above sea level, around 600 feet
  • Location: Leeds/Bradford border, 185 metres above sea level, around 600 feet

10.7C, a generally cool and wet month with slow moving areas of low pressure. 

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Posted
  • Location: Comrie, Perthshire, Bonnie Scotland
  • Weather Preferences: Winter: bright & frosty/snowy; summer: hot and sunny.
  • Location: Comrie, Perthshire, Bonnie Scotland

10.9°C and 75.2mm for me please. 

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Posted
  • Location: Redhill, Surrey
  • Weather Preferences: Southerly tracking LPs, heavy snow. Also 25c and calm
  • Location: Redhill, Surrey

120mm and I’ll go 9.7c with a view of adjusting.  Well below average for most of the month but with wild swings a mild blip anticipated after mid month to have an effect before Cold again backend.

 

BFTP 

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Posted
  • Location: Edinburgh (previously Chelmsford and Birmingham)
  • Weather Preferences: Unseasonably cold weather (at all times of year), wind, and thunderstorms.
  • Location: Edinburgh (previously Chelmsford and Birmingham)

10.9C.

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Posted
  • Location: Weston-S-Mare North Somerset
  • Weather Preferences: Hot sunny , cold and snowy, thunderstorms
  • Location: Weston-S-Mare North Somerset

11.3c and 167mm please

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Posted
  • Location: Bexhill-on-Sea, East Sussex
  • Weather Preferences: Winter Snow, extreme weather, mainly sunny mild summers though.
  • Location: Bexhill-on-Sea, East Sussex

11.4c please. 

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