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Tropical Depression 10 has formed in the central tropical Atlantic and is forecast to move WNW/NW. Forecasted to be close to the Northern Leeward Islands by Friday as a #hurricane. The average (1981-2010 climatology) date for the 4th Atlantic hurricane is September 21 (@Philip Klotzbach).

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Looking at that forecast path i’m glad i’m not leaving Miami on a Southern Caribbean cruise on the 23rd.

oh wait, where’s my sea sickness tablets?

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Jerry has been suffering due to shear but is now turning north and east. Relative Shear should relax but dry air and minimal heat content mean it may die. If it survives long enough, it may approach the Azores.

993mb, 65mph.

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