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Sunny76

Will we get another 2008-2013 run of colder winters again?

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1 minute ago, Kirkcaldy Weather said:

Thanks 😀

 CANSIPS from 31st August (not sure when it updates)

November

March

Very respectable, certainly better than any other run i have seen yet for winter, if the JMA follows suit then its 2-2.

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35 minutes ago, nn2013 said:

Didn't the models predict 2009/10 to be mild, only to be stung with it being the coldest for 30 years? 

The Metoffice went for a mild winter up until the end of December 2009, after which they predicted the rest of winter to be cold.  So their GLOSEA model must have predicted a mild winter in the run up.  However, the GLOSEA 5 is much improved compared to 10 years ago.

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15 minutes ago, Roger J Smith said:

This thread started out asking about a run of cold winters and has pretty much fixated on this winter alone. I guess one cold winter is enough of a run for NW readers nowadays. 

But here's an interesting factoid, sometimes a really memorable winter is not part of any extensive run, for example 1962-63, there were only bits and pieces of cold in winters from 1958 to 1971 otherwise, Feb 1969 perhaps more, some record cold days at both ends of 1965. But that epic winter was not just set among a run of them like perhaps back in the day. For that matter, the 1947 winter was not accompanied by very much, the run was more like 1940 to 1942 with three quite cold winters in a row, then two rather mild ones and 1945 producing a cold January that quickly switched to near record warmth in February. 

The only runs of cold winters in recent times were probably 2009 to 2013 and before that 1985 to 1987 (you could say 1981-82 to 1986-87 as some cold showed up in between). 

I just listed some interesting stats in a new thread in the historical weather section, the main theme being that cold spells of monthly proportions don't always neatly fall into calendar months. I found two in particular that were considerable cold "months" but they happened to start and end at mid-months so the monthly means don't look all that impressive. The winter of 2011-12 did something along those lines with the cold spell around 12 Jan to 11 Feb roughly. 

I suppose many of us are aware that the Dalton solar minimum produced quite a few very cold winters, probably most of the winters from about 1812 to 1830 were on the cold side even by the lower standards of those times. A few milder ones were scattered in there and unfortunately there is no known sure-fire correlation between solar activity and temperature, just statistical trends worth pursuing. The open question now is, can the changing AGW signal or "climate change" overcome the cold bias of low solar, or to what extent can it subdue it? Many probably feel that "back in the day" the outbreak at end of Feb 2018 and early March might have hung on for a week or two without so much push back from the Atlantic. That may be the sort of change we are seeing, a more robust signal like Nov-Dec 2010 can still assert itself but anything less than a solid 9/10 sort of cold signal is going to get its weaknesses exposed from the double whammy of mild ocean temperatures and spreading heat islands. 

One thing I would like to underscore about this coming winter, whatever the setup or temperature trends, there are some exceptional energy peaks indicated around times of full and new moons as several secondary energy peaks add on simultaneously. This would argue for either intense storms in a westerly flow, or locally heavy snowfall events in a blocked pattern. There might be a Christmas storm of some significance since there's a new moon early on 26th December. That one has the energy most concentrated of all the cases this winter although the full moons on either side in Dec and Jan will be high peaks. Since all the energy is being concentrated like that, long intervals of anticyclonic weather are favoured at times between the peaks. If we can get blocking in the right location, maybe a good outcome for this winter after all. If the energy hits a fast westerly though, expect something like 2013-14. 

Brilliant post as always Roger, one of my gut feelings for this winter is the risk of at least 2 big Atlantic storms with wind gusts 85 - 100 mph possibly focused more on Ireland and Northern England / Scotland, hopefully it doesn't end up being another 2013/14 like I said earlier, I would rather have relentless snow than wind and flooding. Also one of my dream scenarios would be a Christmas blizzard so 🤞 that possible Christmas storm you mention ends up being one 😂

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Would like to see the stats showing how far it has improved over the last 10 years?

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Just now, Don said:

The Metoffice went for a mild winter up until the end of December 2009, after which they predicted the rest of winter to be cold.  So their GLOSEA model must have predicted a mild winter in the run up.  However, the GLOSEA 5 is much improved compared to 10 years ago.

I think your keyboard is stuck Don🤣

Need to see evidence regarding "Much improved".

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1 minute ago, DAVID SNOW said:

I think your keyboard is stuck Don🤣

Need to see evidence regarding "Much improved".

Yes, stupid phone!  

Mods please delete duplicated posts.

In terms of the GLOSEA5 improvements, I have no stats myself to back that up.  However, I seem to recall a few years ago the Metoffice talking about winter 2009/10 and that their model had been reprogrammed to take into effect stratospheric conditions, to more accurately predict winter?

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22 minutes ago, Don said:

Yes, stupid phone!  

Mods please delete duplicated posts.

In terms of the GLOSEA5 improvements, I have no stats myself to back that up.  However, I seem to recall a few years ago the Metoffice talking about winter 2009/10 and that their model had been reprogrammed to take into effect stratospheric conditions, to more accurately predict winter?

Correct. Which is why I assume their model and the EC seasonal are not seeing a SSW this year. They spotted last year's but got the effects of it wrong in terms of modelling. 

Without a SSW you're pretty much reliant on an amplified trop pattern- which the EC and GLOSEA are not seeing.

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All joking aside, at the risk of being a broken record... For the sanity of less experienced members (and some more experienced ones 😉). It is only September, and yes we can say as a purely factual statement that 'x model currently shows y' but worrying about whether that will verify at this range? Do your sanity a favour. Take a note of what the models say, file them away for scientific interest, wait until closer to winter and (shock horror!) even into winter itself to see what verifies and then we'll see what reality comes to pass compared to the NWP.

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Win regards to Rodger the second half of Jan 2012 was still mild at 5.0C however you are correct that a cold spell is hidden, 29th Jan-12th Feb averaged -0.6C.

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Have done some calculations based on the ENSO forecast which for winter is between -0.5 and +0.5 years with December, January and February which fell within that bracket dating back to 1950 were 1951/52, 1952/53, 1956/57, 1959/60, 1960/61, 1961/62, 1962/63, 1966/67, 1969/70, 1974/75, 1978/79, 1980/81, 1981/82, 1985/86, 1989/90, 1990/91, 1992/93, 1993/94, 1996/97, 2001/02, 2003/04, 2012/13, 2013/14 and 2016/17, I then looked at all the CET for those December's January's and February's and averaging it all out came up with these three CET's for the upcoming DEC/JAN/FEB period, DECEMBER 4.4 C , JANUARY 3.9 C , FEBRUARY 4.1 C I then went back to the CET list and here are years with those figures in DEC/JAN/FEB

Decembers with 4.4 C CET - 2005, 1982, 1938, 1884, 1856, 1803, 1776, 1761, 1753, 1705 & 1702

January's with 3.9 C CET - 1972, 1961, 1951, 1868, 1862, 1849, 1788, 1728 & 1700

Februaries with 4.1 CET - 2009, 1960, 1839 & 1805

This is not a forecast just something to monitor and see how close / far away those CET figures end up being and is only based on ENSO / CET 😀

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11 minutes ago, Kirkcaldy Weather said:

Have done some calculations based on the ENSO forecast which for winter is between -0.5 and +0.5 years with December, January and February which fell within that bracket dating back to 1950 were 1951/52, 1952/53, 1956/57, 1959/60, 1960/61, 1961/62, 1962/63, 1966/67, 1969/70, 1974/75, 1978/79, 1980/81, 1981/82, 1985/86, 1989/90, 1990/91, 1992/93, 1993/94, 1996/97, 2001/02, 2003/04, 2012/13, 2013/14 and 2016/17, I then looked at all the CET for those December's January's and February's and averaging it all out came up with these three CET's for the upcoming DEC/JAN/FEB period, DECEMBER 4.4 C , JANUARY 3.9 C , FEBRUARY 4.1 C I then went back to the CET list and here are years with those figures in DEC/JAN/FEB

Decembers with 4.4 C CET - 2005, 1982, 1938, 1884, 1856, 1803, 1776, 1761, 1753, 1705 & 1702

January's with 3.9 C CET - 1972, 1961, 1951, 1868, 1862, 1849, 1788, 1728 & 1700

Februaries with 4.1 CET - 2009, 1960, 1839 & 1805

This is not a forecast just something to monitor and see how close / far away those CET figures end up being and is only based on ENSO / CET 😀

what about ENSO neutral combined with solar minimum?..looking at SST in the pacific now touching on weak La nina territory

cdas-sflux_ssta_global_1.png

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18 hours ago, Don said:

The Metoffice went for a mild winter up until the end of December 2009, after which they predicted the rest of winter to be cold.  So their GLOSEA model must have predicted a mild winter in the run up.  However, the GLOSEA 5 is much improved compared to 10 years ago.

Hmm the GLOSEA actually picked out the blocking signal for winter from September 09, as with any model, pinch of salt on its output, especially at longer lead times, Octobers and of course Novembers update should have more weighting , the winter madness starts so early!

 

sep 09 forecast.png

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1 hour ago, coldwinter said:

Hmm the GLOSEA actually picked out the blocking signal for winter from September 09, as with any model, pinch of salt on its output, especially at longer lead times, Octobers and of course Novembers update should have more weighting , the winter madness starts so early!

 

sep 09 forecast.png

Interesting.  I wonder why the Metoffice went for a mild winter during the autumn?  Must have been considering other factors aside from GLOSEA?  Seeing that makes the prospects for this winter seem even worse!

Edited by Don

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4 hours ago, Don said:

Interesting.  I wonder why the Metoffice went for a mild winter during the autumn?  Must have been considering other factors aside from GLOSEA?  Seeing that makes the prospects for this winter seem even worse!

If I remember correctly things were pretty much up in the air at the time as an El Nino was forecast to peak during the winter period so it was quite difficult to predict. In the end it was a moderate El Nino and not a 1997/98 shocker (that came in 2015/16 and we all remember that awful winter).

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14 hours ago, Seasonality said:

All joking aside, at the risk of being a broken record... For the sanity of less experienced members (and some more experienced ones 😉). It is only September, and yes we can say as a purely factual statement that 'x model currently shows y' but worrying about whether that will verify at this range? Do your sanity a favour. Take a note of what the models say, file them away for scientific interest, wait until closer to winter and (shock horror!) even into winter itself to see what verifies and then we'll see what reality comes to pass compared to the NWP.

Exactly can't believe a certain few take those seasonal forecasts as gospel it's going to be a long winter for some.😅

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42 minutes ago, reef said:

If I remember correctly things were pretty much up in the air at the time as an El Nino was forecast to peak during the winter period so it was quite difficult to predict. In the end it was a moderate El Nino and not a 1997/98 shocker (that came in 2015/16 and we all remember that awful winter).

It was also a Modiki El Niño (central based event), too which can favour cold winters in North West Europe.  Winter 2015/16 was indeed a shockingly bad winter, particularly December!

Edited by Don

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2015/16 still had snow here. 2013/2014 by contrast had absolutely no settling snow at all and only a couple or so days of falling snow. Never experienced anything half as bad.

Edited by cheese

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On 13/09/2019 at 22:38, cheese said:

2015/16 still had snow here. 2013/2014 by contrast had absolutely no settling snow at all and only a couple or so days of falling snow. Never experienced anything half as bad.

Yes, I remember periods in winter 15/16 feeling chilly despite it being very mild overall. 2013/14 was the least snowiest and possibly stands out more because it was the first winter to be much milder, when compared to the previous 5 or 6 years. 

In some ways it was like the 2010s version of 1987/88. 

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2013/2014 was probably the least snowiest Winter ever here, never known one as rubbish. We only managed a cm covering one evening in the February...basically a dusting. It was all but gone by 11am the next day. 

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12 hours ago, Frost HoIIow said:

2013/2014 was probably the least snowiest Winter ever here, never known one as rubbish. We only managed a cm covering one evening in the February...basically a dusting. It was all but gone by 11am the next day. 

Same here, around 11th feb from a WWNW flow, it had gone within half an hour here.

EDIT : Or WbN more technically correct.

Edited by feb1991blizzard

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5 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

Same here, around 11th feb from a WWNW flow, it had gone within half an hour here.

EDIT : Or WbN more technically correct.

A WNW is the ideal wind direction for me and thee, trouble is, the irish sea temps usually mess things up.

I think it was around Jan 1984 i saw one deliver big time here, but they rarely deliver.Easterly/North Easterly is king for us Feb..

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Just now, northwestsnow said:

A WNW is the ideal wind direction for me and thee, trouble is, the irish sea temps usually mess things up.

I think it was around Jan 1984 i saw one deliver big time here, but they rarely deliver.Easterly/North Easterly is king for us Feb..

Yes, Easterlies can be hit and miss but they give you at least a good chance.

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On 16/09/2019 at 10:36, northwestsnow said:

A WNW is the ideal wind direction for me and thee, trouble is, the irish sea temps usually mess things up.

I think it was around Jan 1984 i saw one deliver big time here, but they rarely deliver.Easterly/North Easterly is king for us Feb..

It could very easily have been Jan 1984 - that was an unusually snowy "westerly" month from the north Midlands northwards.  The WNW'ly type delivered widely around the 15th in particular and then there was a frontal snow event around the 21st-23rd which had similarities with that of early February 1996. 

https://www.wetterzentrale.de/maps/archive/1984/cfsr/CFSR_1_1984011506_1.png

I remember the snow from a westerly on the evening of 11 February 2014 - I was up in North Yorkshire at the time and remember a dusting that evening, but it had largely gone by the next morning as milder air moved in.  It was the only lying snow of the entire 2013/14 season, which stuck out as the most snowless season that north-east England has had in the past century.

Yes, one can draw parallels between 2013/14 and 1987/88 as the winter of 1987/88 similarly marked the end of the cold winters of 1985-1987 (and the more generally snowy period of 1978-87).  However the winter of 1987/88 was followed immediately by more exceptionally mild winters in 1988/89 and 1989/90, whereas 2013/14 was followed by the closer to average winter of 2014/15, which I recall had fairly widespread snowfall from westerlies around 14 and 29 January.

Edited by Thundery wintry showers

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On 08/09/2019 at 21:42, Sunny76 said:

A 1979, 81, 87, 91 or 2009 or 10 would be great. But, I’ll happily take another 2018 with slightly more snow, although London and the south got quite a heavy dumping during that spell. The cold temps were very notable.

How did you fair in the BFTE in terms of depth of snowfall? 

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