Jump to content
Holidays
Local
Radar
Snow?
Sunny76

Will we get another 2008-2013 run of colder winters again?

Recommended Posts

12 minutes ago, Freeze said:

I’m sure people thought this during previous warmer periods in the last century before it cooled down again with colder winters, saying we’ll never get colder records again is silly, it was only just over a year ago we had the coldest March and spring maximum on record on 1st March 2018

Not to be a pedant, but the 'Beast from the East' was only a blip in an otherwise unremarkable winter for the UK. There'll be cooler winters but it'll be harder to yield significantly below average DJF CETs. I suspect there'll be more one off 'events' though, like hottest temperature ever this summer past, and the Beast of 2018.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Last winter we were unlucky with the failed easterly, and 2010 was November / December and the BFTE being February/ March and March 2013 etc, I believe we will see colder winters with some having cold weather at times through all winter months (Dec,Jan,Feb,March) I certainly would not rule out something similar to 1962-63 and 1947 at some point in the future as unlikely as a repeat of those seem, pretty sure a lot of us would have said how unlikely those recent cold spells were too and those happened. 

 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

 Interesting question I believe that we will get cold winters how ever due to our current climate I don’t think we will see the likes of 1947 or 1963 I hope I am wrong but let’s just wait and see 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

September GLOSEA update is about as grim as you can get for winter. Think 88/89.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
1 hour ago, CreweCold said:

September GLOSEA update is about as grim as you can get for winter. Think 88/89.

Don’t know whether to laugh or cry...... At least April 1989 was cold with some snow 👍

Edited by Don

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
3 hours ago, syed2878 said:

 Interesting question I believe that we will get cold winters how ever due to our current climate I don’t think we will see the likes of 1947 or 1963 I hope I am wrong but let’s just wait and see 

While a 1947, or 1963 isn’t likely in the near future, nobody probably thought the same thing would happen again between 1948-1961, or post 1963 until 1978.

I still see a 1979 happening my gut feeling is it’s going to happen within the next 2-3 winters. A 1979 style winter would be cold enough, or another 2010, but another 47 or 63 would be near catastrophic for people living in London or urban areas. 

The population is bigger now, and extreme cold and snow will be far worse than high summer temps. The elderly will suffer for one, and anyone will underlying illnesses or weak immune systems will be vulnerable. 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
19 hours ago, Aleman said:

I've had two pipe bursts due to penetrating frosts in the last decade and you lot want more cold?

Also, have a think that UK electricity demand reach its full generation capacity, including interconnectors with Europe, last winter a few times in the short cold snap. This month sees closure of a coal power station that produced 4% of capacity, another 3% coal station closes in March and the French are having trouble with welds at EDF nuclear stations which might see shutdowns and imports from them of around 4% disappear. I like a little snow to say we've had a winter - but be careful what you wish for. I hope renewables capacity has risen enough this last year to cover closures and that they produce when its cold, dark or foggy and windless. Politicians seem to have us sailing a bit too close to the wind with generation.

http://www.gridwatch.templar.co.uk/

 

I have a feeling we will be hit at some stage with a very cold spell, probably to he point of unrelenting cold and snow. 

I remember December 2010 and March 2013, and while happy to enjoy seeing more cold and snowy weather, the cold did seem to last for ages.

Spring 1996 was another period where winter seemed to linger for ages.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
12 minutes ago, Sunny76 said:

While a 1947, or 1963 isn’t likely in the near future, nobody probably thought the same thing would happen again between 1948-1961, or post 1963 until 1978.

I still see a 1979 happening my gut feeling is it’s going to happen within the next 2-3 winters. A 1979 style winter would be cold enough, or another 2010, but another 47 or 63 would be near catastrophic for people living in London or urban areas. 

The population is bigger now, and extreme cold and snow will be far worse than high summer temps. The elderly will suffer for one, and anyone will underlying illnesses or weak immune systems will be vulnerable. 

I don't think it would be as catastrophic as people think. Most importantly peoples homes are warmer now than in the past. I lived through 62/63 when we only had one fire in the house (living room), no central heating at all & no indoor toilet....we had to break the ice in the toilet bowl. Most elderly people these days have central heating so can stay warm throughout their home. I guess the downside is going out to get shopping if they don't have family to fetch it for them. That's where the problems start if they have mobility/blood pressure/heart issues & most people over 75 do.

Edited by Frost HoIIow

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
3 hours ago, CreweCold said:

September GLOSEA update is about as grim as you can get for winter. Think 88/89.

Werent Meto updates from around New Year 2019 constantly mentioning chance of cold and Easterlies later in forecast period last Winter. Those Easterlies were forever on the horizon, not really materialising, so i cant get concerned in September about Winter that is still 3 months or so away.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Just now, Bristle boy said:

Werent Meto updates from around New Year 2019 constantly mentioning chance of cold and Easterlies later in forecast period last Winter. Those Easterlies were forever on the horizon, not really materialising, so i cant get concerned in September about Winter that is still 3 months or so away.

The issue is that when seasonal models latch on to a blocked outlook, there's about a 40% chance of it coming off (seemingly). When it shows a situation like the GLOSEA does, 90% of the time it comes off.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
2 minutes ago, CreweCold said:

The issue is that when seasonal models latch on to a blocked outlook, there's about a 40% chance of it coming off (seemingly). When it shows a situation like the GLOSEA does, 90% of the time it comes off.

I don’t think the warm PDO is going to do us any favours this year.  Still, at least the models are not leading us up the garden path at this early stage.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
10 minutes ago, CreweCold said:

The issue is that when seasonal models latch on to a blocked outlook, there's about a 40% chance of it coming off (seemingly). When it shows a situation like the GLOSEA does, 90% of the time it comes off.

UK climate is maritime, gulf stream nearby, so default is mild, rain, wind in Winter OR the Azores high nudging in. My expectations (for snow and cold) are always low for UK Winter, but if we get snow and cold it's a bonus.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Yes no more cold winters  until the  world turns into one giant fireball      good grief 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
42 minutes ago, CreweCold said:

The issue is that when seasonal models latch on to a blocked outlook, there's about a 40% chance of it coming off (seemingly). When it shows a situation like the GLOSEA does, 90% of the time it comes off.

So basically just wish for next March to come as quickly as possible then.

 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
48 minutes ago, Frost HoIIow said:

I don't think it would be as catastrophic as people think. Most importantly peoples homes are warmer now than in the past. I lived through 62/63 when we only had one fire in the house (living room), no central heating at all & no indoor toilet....we had to break the ice in the toilet bowl. Most elderly people these days have central heating so can stay warm throughout their home. I guess the downside is going out to get shopping if they don't have family to fetch it for them. That's where the problems start if they have mobility/blood pressure/heart issues & most people over 75 do.

A repeat of 47 or 63 would be an utter disaster for wildlife, unlike people they can't go indoors & switch on the heating!

A short, sharp cold spell, yeah I'll take that as I & hopefully other animal lovers will be supporting their local wildlife but & long severe winter like those two, no thanks, I remember reading a report of how much of the uk bird population was wiped out in the '63 winter & god that made grim reading. 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
1 minute ago, Sunny76 said:

So basically just wish for next March to come as quickly as possible then.

 

Yes, can't wait for March to come, wish i could just fast forward now because of that one run, in fact lets just forget about the next 1000 years if the climate change boys are right.:oldlaugh:

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
13 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

Yes, can't wait for March to come, wish i could just fast forward now because of that one run, in fact lets just forget about the next 1000 years if the climate change boys are right.:oldlaugh:

In all seriousness feb, I do rate the GLOSEA, even if it has been a bit hit and miss. Remember, what we see is a super ensemble mean (I think). Must be a strong signal.

Saying this, I said a few weeks back that seasonal models could be less useful than usual these days given we're in pretty much unchartered territory RE solar activity and state of Arctic ice. 

Edited by CreweCold

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
5 minutes ago, CreweCold said:

In all seriousness feb, I do rate the GLOSEA, even if it has been a bit hit and miss. Remember, what we see is a super ensemble mean (I think). Must be a strong signal.

Yes, will start to get more concerned if it is till showing next month.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Just now, feb1991blizzard said:

Yes, will start to get more concerned if it is till showing next month.

Quick question  what would you say you think is more reliable  the ecm monthly  or a glosse output  2 to 4 months out 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
2 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

Yes, will start to get more concerned if it is till showing next month.

I'll be happy with just one cold and snowy spell this winter TBH. Preferably in Dec or Jan.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
1 hour ago, Frost HoIIow said:

I don't think it would be as catastrophic as people think. Most importantly peoples homes are warmer now than in the past. I lived through 62/63 when we only had one fire in the house (living room), no central heating at all & no indoor toilet....we had to break the ice in the toilet bowl. Most elderly people these days have central heating so can stay warm throughout their home. I guess the downside is going out to get shopping if they don't have family to fetch it for them. That's where the problems start if they have mobility/blood pressure/heart issues & most people over 75 do.

I think you underestimate the lack of ruggedness in today's infrastructure and equipment.

Electricity and gas supplies are not prepared for anything approaching a 1963 Winter, you can no longer light a fire under your car/truck before you get it started in the mornings,  and the modern transport and distribution networks fail with 2" of snow.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
3 minutes ago, weirpig said:

Quick question  what would you say you think is more reliable  the ecm monthly  or a glosse output  2 to 4 months out 

The EC monthly only goes to day 46 I believe so I presume you mean the EC seasonal. Out of the two of them I'd plump for the GLOSEA all day every day.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Yes @CreweCold, a bit disappointing now - LRF's for winter seem much harder these days due to climate change, hoping though that the big melt season might do us favours in that department but there must be a much more complex science to it than sea ice loss, it must be to do with where it occurs as high sea ice extent didn't do us too bad during the LIA period did it?  would love to a winter LRF but analogues just have not bared fruit lately wrt prediction so is it really worth puting  in about 50 hours of work building analogues knowing if it comes out blocked it will probably bust anyway!

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Just now, CreweCold said:

The EC monthly only goes to day 46 I believe so I presume you mean the EC seasonal. Out of the two of them I'd plump for the GLOSEA all day every day.

No I ment the ec 46 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Just now, weirpig said:

No I ment the ec 46 

Well you can't really compare as one is a seasonal model and the other is not...though they are both ensemble based.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Create an account or sign in to comment

You need to be a member in order to leave a comment

Create an account

Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!

Register a new account

Sign in

Already have an account? Sign in here.

Sign In Now

  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    No registered users viewing this page.

×
×
  • Create New...