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Sunny76

Will we get another 2008-2013 run of colder winters again?

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Posted (edited)

Mind you, for all CreweCold's usual relish in being a harbinger of mild doom, long range models in October are still not quite worth slashing your wrists about. They're not in "t!t$ on a bull" territory in terms of reliability anymore, but... Well you can fill in the gaps. They're more of a watching brief

Edited by Seasonality

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September's NAO came in (marginally) negative at -0.16

https://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/teleconnections/nao/

For what it's worth, that's 5 months in a row of -NAO, in contrast to just 2 of the previous 19.  October looks like it could be negative too, although still early and I've probably just jinxed it. :oldsmile:

We had 16 (count 'em) months in a row of -NAO around the 2009/2010 period. Solar signal or just a stochastic process? 

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3 hours ago, Yarmy said:

September's NAO came in (marginally) negative at -0.16

https://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/teleconnections/nao/

For what it's worth, that's 5 months in a row of -NAO, in contrast to just 2 of the previous 19.  October looks like it could be negative too, although still early and I've probably just jinxed it. :oldsmile:

We had 16 (count 'em) months in a row of -NAO around the 2009/2010 period. Solar signal or just a stochastic process? 

That's very interesting. Thank you for that info. I for one am a big believer in solar minimum affecting our winter weather - in a nice cold, snowy way :)

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4 hours ago, Seasonality said:

Mind you, for all CreweCold's usual relish in being a harbinger of mild doom, long range models in October are still not quite worth slashing your wrists about. They're not in "t!t$ on a bull" territory in terms of reliability anymore, but... Well you can fill in the gaps. They're more of a watching brief

Given the way long range models performed last winter, I'm encouraged that they're showing a mild outlook this time.

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Posted (edited)
18 hours ago, CreweCold said:

So looking at that I'd say the odds certainly seem to favour the seasonal model outcome I.e PV situated over Greenland with blocking confined to the mid latitudes over our side of the Atlantic.

That anomalous Pacific warmth needs to bugger off.

It looks rather fearsome and most certainly needs to do one!  A shame we have this coinciding with solar minimum, too!  Until those warm SST's relent, I will not get my hopes up in any way for a cold winter.  

Edited by Don

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Just checked the date.......it is October 4th. Start of Winter is 8+ weeks away. If anyone thinks any single person on here OR any weather guru/scientist in the whole wide world can predict Winter weather for these islands in the N Atlantic 2+ months away then ur living in cloud cuckoo land.

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On 04/10/2019 at 20:21, Bristle boy said:

Just checked the date.......it is October 4th. Start of Winter is 8+ weeks away. If anyone thinks any single person on here OR any weather guru/scientist in the whole wide world can predict Winter weather for these islands in the N Atlantic 2+ months away then ur living in cloud cuckoo land.

Excellent point here, I've bolded the most important word of all. The fact is very, very few of us here have the qualifications to make such pronouncements. There are just a few people who do, but you'll notice they tend to be more circumspect in the way they discuss longer term prospects. The weather makes fools of the genuine experts, let alone the keen amateurs that most of us lot are.

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On 04/10/2019 at 19:21, Bristle boy said:

Just checked the date.......it is October 4th. Start of Winter is 8+ weeks away. If anyone thinks any single person on here OR any weather guru/scientist in the whole wide world can predict Winter weather for these islands in the N Atlantic 2+ months away then ur living in cloud cuckoo land.

True. Just before middle of last month, I saw a post saying "bye bye Indian Sunmer". Putting to side the "Indian summer" comment, just a few days later we had maxima getting into the low mid 20Cs and sunny, widely! 

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On 04/10/2019 at 11:24, Yarmy said:

September's NAO came in (marginally) negative at -0.16

https://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/teleconnections/nao/

For what it's worth, that's 5 months in a row of -NAO, in contrast to just 2 of the previous 19.  October looks like it could be negative too, although still early and I've probably just jinxed it. :oldsmile:

We had 16 (count 'em) months in a row of -NAO around the 2009/2010 period. Solar signal or just a stochastic process? 

Lets be honest only 2 of those -NAO months have impacted on this country, May and particularly June. July, August and September have not (this largely due to higher pressure over Greenland and that is it)...to me it has felt that depressions in the Atlantic have been more 'active' since July and more active than recent summers. So far this Autumn I'd say the same with the pattern not changing that much with abundant high pressure over Europe with all the action in the Atlantic, all this talk about -NAO it certainly had me fooled since July that's for sure!...if I hadn't seen the thumbnails.

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On 03/10/2019 at 22:36, Kirkcaldy Weather said:

TBH I am more concerned about the ongoing effects on marine life due to those warm waters rather than if it could scupper our chances of a cold winter.

 

 

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