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Will we get another 2008-2013 run of colder winters again?

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Most major seasonal models are singing from the same hymn sheet. I can't see this being anything other than a +NAO winter in all honesty.

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2 minutes ago, CreweCold said:

Most major seasonal models are singing from the same hymn sheet. I can't see this being anything other than a +NAO winter in all honesty.

You were quite optimistic a few months back, i would be quite optimistic but not sure if we will be far enough past solar min is one concern and the other is that something just overrides everything in recent years and seem to render positive signals meaningless.

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Posted (edited)
53 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

You were quite optimistic a few months back, i would be quite optimistic but not sure if we will be far enough past solar min is one concern and the other is that something just overrides everything in recent years and seem to render positive signals meaningless.

One of the main things I have noticed in last few weeks is the increasing confidence on twitter from some of the guru's over the pond, many are now starting to turn their thoughts to winter with a few teasing their liking towards a early start in winter.  One of keys I feel is the -NAO over last 6 months (which has been highlighted on here by one or two of experienced guys). This has been hard to achieve in last 4/5 years for one month never mind the consistency of this year, more or less since back end of winter this year we have seen -NAO, this could be the turning point going forward, feel now the solar impact is starting to show its hand - we are around 50 spotless days away from 2008 & 2009 levels. QBO this year seems to be on our side or edging towards becoming a positive (neg QBO achievable around NY) going into winter while we don't have any raging/strong el nino or la nina  to override this solar impact. My concern would be seasonal forecasts but last winter also lead us to think we were in for something special with their continued signals of extremely -NAO in Feb/March after strat warming, unfortunately didn't materialise as expected but seasonal forecasts only a month out were all showing this. The good thing in this much changing warming world is we are still seeing moments throughout winter in NH were we have temperatures pushing record breaking (US quite common last few years but sure C+E Europe also experienced similar), hopefully we can tap into this at some point. 

Edited by Bullseye

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Posted (edited)
1 hour ago, feb1991blizzard said:

You were quite optimistic a few months back, i would be quite optimistic but not sure if we will be far enough past solar min is one concern and the other is that something just overrides everything in recent years and seem to render positive signals meaningless.

I'll ask you Feb, how many times have you seen all of the main major seasonal models forecast exactly the same +NAO set up just a few months before winter and then backtrack? 

We're not even talking about variations of a +NAO set up. The EC and GLOSEA are virtually identical and all suggest a Euro high being the main feature.

The way I see it is the +PDO is overriding everything at present during winter. 

Edited by CreweCold

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5 minutes ago, CreweCold said:

I'll ask you Feb, how many times have you seen all of the main major seasonal models forecast exactly the same +NAO set up just a few months before winter and then backtrack? 

We're not even talking about variations of a +NAO set up. The EC and GLOSEA are virtually identical and all suggest a Euro high being the main feature.

To be honest, i have never seen them forecast a +NAO at such range, let alone do it and then backtrack, never seen this level of agreement, the chances of a very cold winter with long drawn out cold spells lasting 4 weeks + i suggest are remote but then again, when haven't they been in recent winters, i do just think though that it won't be quite as bad as the models are suggesting and there will be something decent, don't forget you are talking about Septembers update with the GLOSEA5 and when you are talking Feb 2020, you are talking about T3200 to T3800 ish so even if overall the winter is zonal, SSW's might be picked up nearer to the time, although i do think we could do with some sort of a shift in the right direction - next update due in next week of GLOSEA.

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12 minutes ago, CreweCold said:

The way I see it is the +PDO is overriding everything at present during winter. 

Yes, that’s my main concern for winter, too.  No signs of it weakening either!

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It's fairly obvious what has been happening over the last few winters. The anomalous N Pacific warmth has been causing the jet to tighten and accelerate both over the N Pacific and N Atlantic sectors. This has coincided with cold shots of air spreading S through Canada and the states.

The tipping point (when temperature gradients kick this off) seems to occur mid-late November. Which is why we're seeing blocked autumns suddenly disintegrate and heights rapidly lower across Greenland. This then promotes a pressure rise across the Azores and ridging into mainland Europe.

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Posted (edited)
21 minutes ago, CreweCold said:

I'll ask you Feb, how many times have you seen all of the main major seasonal models forecast exactly the same +NAO set up just a few months before winter and then backtrack? 

We're not even talking about variations of a +NAO set up. The EC and GLOSEA are virtually identical and all suggest a Euro high being the main feature.

The way I see it is the +PDO is overriding everything at present during winter. 

Think you have a short memory CC more often than not same mild theme, we’ve had a reoccurring tendency to negative NAO in the last 6 months since late spring and indeed this is continuing well into autumn, forecast AO for mid October trended negative, more arctic amplification and days are counting down the more this keeps up makes you wonder. Can’t help but feel something a little different about this winter.

4F5C9B1E-7D2E-4F5E-8FEB-5AF46B124BE4.thumb.png.a0b0b691bcd8199d2c410f6b50af8c40.png

Edited by Daniel*

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Just now, Don said:

Yes, that’s my main concern for winter, too.  No signs of it weakening either!

Yes - i do have to agree with that, i am surprised the teleconnection experts on here don't mention this more, i wonder if they concentrate on the intra-seasonal tropical teleconnections like GLAAM / GWO and the MJO and are missing a glaringly obvious reason that the cold spells in recent years apart from the beast have all seemed to bust - something on a decadal level, mind you, i think we could possibly negate the PDO+ to some extent with an Atlantic tripole but can we get one?

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6 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

Yes - i do have to agree with that, i am surprised the teleconnection experts on here don't mention this more, i wonder if they concentrate on the intra-seasonal tropical teleconnections like GLAAM / GWO and the MJO and are missing a glaringly obvious reason that the cold spells in recent years apart from the beast have all seemed to bust - something on a decadal level, mind you, i think we could possibly negate the PDO+ to some extent with an Atlantic tripole but can we get one?

I think the +PDO temporarily relented during winter 2017/18, hence possibly why it was a colder winter?

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Just now, Don said:

I think the +PDO temporarily relented during winter 2017/18, hence possibly why it was a colder winter?

Wondering if the La Nina affected that, which is why i have temporarily gone against the expert consensus in that rather than a moderate modoki El nino being the best, i think a La Nina is better as it might help to at least neutralise the PDO.

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3 minutes ago, Don said:

I think the +PDO temporarily relented during winter 2017/18, hence possibly why it was a colder winter?

Aided by a SSW don't forget. It forced enough to allow a temporary pressure rise to our NE. 

I think to negate the strongly +PDO we'd need to see a strong early warming centred over Canada/Greenland to allow low heights to disperse in the locale.

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Posted (edited)
1 hour ago, Bullseye said:

One of the main things I have noticed in last few weeks is the increasing confidence on twitter from some of the guru's over the pond, many are now starting to turn their thoughts to winter with a few teasing their liking towards a early start in winter.  One of keys I feel is the -NAO over last 6 months (which has been highlighted on here by one or two of experienced guys). This has been hard to achieve in last 4/5 years for one month never mind the consistency of this year, more or less since back end of winter this year we have seen -NAO, this could be the turning point going forward, feel now the solar impact is starting to show its hand - we are around 50 spotless days away from 2008 & 2009 levels. QBO this year seems to be on our side or edging towards becoming a positive (neg QBO achievable around NY) going into winter while we don't have any raging/strong el nino or la nina  to override this solar impact. My concern would be seasonal forecasts but last winter also lead us to think we were in for something special with their continued signals of extremely -NAO in Feb/March after strat warming, unfortunately didn't materialise as expected but seasonal forecasts only a month out were all showing this. The good thing in this much changing warming world is we are still seeing moments throughout winter in NH were we have temperatures pushing record breaking (US quite common last few years but sure C+E Europe also experienced similar), hopefully we can tap into this at some point. 

Only thing is, are the guru's over the pond talking USA or UK?, not made my mind up yet about Solar min, whether it should be this winter or next, the best one, kind of hoped that the one after true solar min would coincide with an entrenched -QBO, -PDO and central pacific modest El nino combination, would have been even prepared to write one winter off in order to get a spectacular one.

Edited by feb1991blizzard

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25 minutes ago, Don said:

I think the +PDO temporarily relented during winter 2017/18, hence possibly why it was a colder winter?

Didn't know that, couldn't remember which one.

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The PDO for Sept 19 was 0.00

About as neutral as neutral could be.

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Posted (edited)

Have any of you actually looked at the PDO from previous Winter months? I have just read about how a +PDO is ruining Winters and how it must have temporary relented in the Winter of 2017/18. 

There was actually a -PDO in two out of the three Winter months in 2017/18.

Also check out Winter 2018/19 below: 

201812   PDO -0.09

201901   PDO -0.19

201902   PDO -0.50

Have a look through the link above from @Kirkcaldy Weather for previous Winter months.

Edited by Mr Frost

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2 minutes ago, Mr Frost said:

Have any of you actually looked at the PDO from previous Winter months? I have just read about how a +PDO is ruining Winters...🤔

Winter 2018/19 below: 

201812   PDO -0.09

201901   PDO -0.19

201902   PDO -0.50

Have a look through the link above from @Kirkcaldy Weather for previous Winter months.

I honestly think some people just make up stuff and post it for the sake of it without actually researching what they are talking about - it’s all very bizarre! 😀

Very strange considering all the anomaly charts show a vast swathe of well above average SSTs off the west coast of Canada/USA.

Either way, it doesn't change the fact that these warmer than average sea surface temperatures are promoting a pattern which is not conducive to deep winter weather in the UK.

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I need to do some reading up on this, maybe there is some lag effect but we have definitely had warm SST anomalies over the last few years, need to establish what lag effect and if there are other indices like the SOI in relation to ENSO which more accurately reflect the SST's in the far North Pacific ocean, the fact remains that the warm SST's are sending the jet in E USA on a more southerly track, thus a huge temperature gradient is exploding lows of the Eastern seaboard.

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4 minutes ago, CreweCold said:

Very strange considering all the anomaly charts show a vast swathe of well above average SSTs off the west coast of Canada/USA.

Either way, it doesn't change the fact that these warmer than average sea surface temperatures are promoting a pattern which is not conducive to deep winter weather in the UK.

TBH I am more concerned about the ongoing effects on marine life due to those warm waters rather than if it could scupper our chances of a cold winter.

 

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A tiny bit is starting to colden right on the coast now, wonder if the developing Nina can do its job but the vast area remains +ve in terms of anomaly.

image.thumb.png.c90a08e5dcf14ecbd65c8a5849704d26.png

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Posted (edited)

For the avoidance of any doubt, here is the great swathe of above average SSTs in the NE Pacific- the area that is impacting on our winter weather by causing HP to form in the locale 

anomnight.9.30.2019.gif

If you look at the reanalysis charts of the past few winters you'll see there's almost 100% correlation between this warm pool of water, HP over the top of it and a +NAO impacting the UK over winter.

Edited by CreweCold

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Posted (edited)
8 minutes ago, CreweCold said:

For the avoidance of any doubt, here is the great swathe of above average SSTs in the NE Pacific- the area that is impacting on our winter weather by causing HP to form in the locale 

anomnight.9.30.2019.gif

Yes but that area is cooling slowly also one to watch.

And yellow anomaly is average so it's not as big as you think. 

anomnight.8.1.2019.gif

anomnight.10.3.2019.gif

Edited by booferking

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Posted (edited)

@CreweCold  

Here is the current SSTA from climate reanalyser - The reason the PDO is neutral is because there is no temperature differential across the NE pacific, its just all warm-

4E51026E-CEAA-40A5-934F-1AF37CB911F3.thumb.jpeg.6155e459bcc53a8cb54e69fa55589bc4.jpeg

The SSTA off the North coast of Alaska feedbacks in winter to an ever deepening negative -EPO pattern.

The EPO becoming very negative can be a detractor of cold for the UK as it promotes the PV over Greenland- However thats not always the case because we can have the both as a couplet -EPO / -NAO it just means that red line is forced more poleward -

A349009A-0F8B-45B1-AA15-3C2C85185457.thumb.jpeg.4816d2908d59734f5288f82564b95066.jpeg

You can see it deepening in recent years in relation to the 'blob'

E80718FA-FE39-4AC1-823B-05EEA2CC2FC0.thumb.jpeg.4367133040a0870290ba72037175f7a6.jpeg

 

Edited by Steve Murr

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20 minutes ago, Steve Murr said:

@CreweCold  

Here is the current SSTA from climate reanalyser - The reason the PDO is neutral is because there is no temperature differential across the NE pacific, its just all warm-

4E51026E-CEAA-40A5-934F-1AF37CB911F3.thumb.jpeg.6155e459bcc53a8cb54e69fa55589bc4.jpeg

The SSTA off the North coast of Alaska feedbacks in winter to an ever deepening negative -EPO pattern.

The EPO becoming very negative can be a detractor of cold for the UK as it promotes the PV over Greenland- However thats not always the case because we can have the both as a couplet -EPO / -NAO it just means that red line is forced more poleward -

A349009A-0F8B-45B1-AA15-3C2C85185457.thumb.jpeg.4816d2908d59734f5288f82564b95066.jpeg

You can see it deepening in recent years in relation to the 'blob'

E80718FA-FE39-4AC1-823B-05EEA2CC2FC0.thumb.jpeg.4367133040a0870290ba72037175f7a6.jpeg

 

So looking at that I'd say the odds certainly seem to favour the seasonal model outcome I.e PV situated over Greenland with blocking confined to the mid latitudes over our side of the Atlantic.

That anomalous Pacific warmth needs to bugger off.

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