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Will we get another 2008-2013 run of colder winters again?


Sunny76

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Posted
  • Location: Leeds/Bradford border, 185 metres above sea level, around 600 feet
  • Location: Leeds/Bradford border, 185 metres above sea level, around 600 feet

Despite the high CET Jan 08 did feature a period of cooler zonality early on with back edge snowfall.

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Posted
  • Location: Windermere 120m asl
  • Location: Windermere 120m asl
On 16/09/2019 at 10:36, northwestsnow said:

A WNW is the ideal wind direction for me and thee, trouble is, the irish sea temps usually mess things up.

I think it was around Jan 1984 i saw one deliver big time here, but they rarely deliver.Easterly/North Easterly is king for us Feb..

Yes need cold embedded air to allow long lasting snowfall and cover here.. the Irish Sea can be a help and a hindrance. We did well in latter part of Jan 2015 from a WNW many snow showers, but snow was only able to stick through the night, and melted during the day, due to lack of proper cold uppers.

Dec 2009 and 2010 good examples of  WNW delivering big time thanks to deep embedded cold air, low pressure anchored down to the west and north - not a true WNW, more of a north/north easterly that took a long fetch and came at us from the WNW.

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Posted
  • Location: Wildwood, Stafford 104m asl
  • Weather Preferences: obviously snow!
  • Location: Wildwood, Stafford 104m asl

WNW useless for here, showers travel through Stockport into Derbyshire, NW useless too, too mild, any snow melts by 10am

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Posted
  • Location: Scouthead Oldham 295mASL
  • Location: Scouthead Oldham 295mASL
8 minutes ago, I remember Atlantic 252 said:

WNW useless for here, showers travel through Stockport into Derbyshire, NW useless too, too mild, any snow melts by 10am

NW winds best for you but comes with same issues as a wnw, irish sea temps!

Can imagine some classics from a nw direction in winters past when sea temps were a little colder.

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Posted
  • Location: Lincoln, Lincolnshire
  • Weather Preferences: Sunshine, convective precipitation, snow, thunderstorms, "episodic" months.
  • Location: Lincoln, Lincolnshire

Here's some old classics from a NW or WNW direction, these brought plenty of snow to much of the North West:

https://www.wetterzentrale.de/maps/archive/1955/era/ERA_1_1955011712_1.png

https://www.wetterzentrale.de/maps/archive/1958/era/ERA_1_1958011912_1.png

https://www.wetterzentrale.de/maps/archive/1973/era/ERA_1_1973021400_1.png

https://www.wetterzentrale.de/maps/archive/1978/era/ERA_1_1978011000_1.png

https://www.wetterzentrale.de/maps/archive/1981/era/ERA_1_1981011500_1.png

https://www.wetterzentrale.de/maps/archive/1982/era/ERA_1_1982121700_1.png

https://www.wetterzentrale.de/maps/archive/1995/era/ERA_1_1995030200_1.png

This one, although brief, was pretty well timed:

https://www.wetterzentrale.de/maps/archive/2004/era/ERA_1_2004122512_1.png

This westerly brought severe snowstorms to many parts of Scotland and Northern Ireland, I don't think snow generally lay for long at low levels across the north of England though:

https://www.wetterzentrale.de/maps/archive/1993/era/ERA_1_1993011112_1.png

I was in Lancaster in the early 2000s so became pretty familiar with the search for these setups.  However, my luck was out during that spell - the only decent snowfall that Lancaster had during my time there was on Christmas Day 2004 (from the second-to-last north-westerly linked above), while I was away!

Actually, come to think of it, Lancaster had falling and lying snow from a west-north-westerly as recently as... this year, and it stuck around for a few days, so even in the current warmer climate it is possible.  I remember Lancaster University tweeting about it:

CFSR_1_2019013012_1.png

Edited by Thundery wintry showers
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Posted
  • Location: Telford, c.150m asl
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, ice, cold
  • Location: Telford, c.150m asl
On 12/09/2019 at 18:15, Frost HoIIow said:

I see your point but past severe Winters also relied on the transport network for bringing in supplies...not everyone had an allotment or their own food supply. There was still shops back in 62/63....which funnily enough needed transportation to get in the supplies. In regards to the power network we don't really know how it will cope. Not enough to panic about it. If things get bad in regards to supplies like food why not call in the army?

I think the bigger problem will be childcare - majority of teachers drive to work, many of them long distances, so schools are often closed with comparatively minor snow. 
If we had major snow and ice, and schools were closed, how many people will have to take time off work to look after their kids? If people are unable to get to work, that means shops may not all open or only short hours, public transport may not have enough drivers, etc., etc. 

It became a problem in many places in a small way two years ago, but I think in the event of serious and prolonged cold winter weather, the closed schools and the domino effect from there (no pizza deliveries, come to that!) will be the bigger problem. 

Bear in mind that when Edinburgh had its "Big Freeze" starting late Nov 2010, the post office promptly bolted closed all postboxes, and Tesco and Amazon both refused to take any online orders for anywhere in the wider region for weeks. 

And that did need the Army in the end - come the eventual stop, after something like six weeks with falling snow every day, the pavements across almost all the city had 8-10 inches of compacted snow-ice, so everyone had to walk in the roads (most of which had been impassable for most of the previous weeks). In some areas, pneumatic drills had to be used to break it up. 

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Posted
  • Location: Medlock Valley, Oldham, 103 metres/337 feet ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Cold, snow, thunderstorms, warm summers not too hot.
  • Location: Medlock Valley, Oldham, 103 metres/337 feet ASL
5 hours ago, BleakMidwinter said:

I think the bigger problem will be childcare - majority of teachers drive to work, many of them long distances, so schools are often closed with comparatively minor snow. 
If we had major snow and ice, and schools were closed, how many people will have to take time off work to look after their kids? If people are unable to get to work, that means shops may not all open or only short hours, public transport may not have enough drivers, etc., etc. 

It became a problem in many places in a small way two years ago, but I think in the event of serious and prolonged cold winter weather, the closed schools and the domino effect from there (no pizza deliveries, come to that!) will be the bigger problem. 

Bear in mind that when Edinburgh had its "Big Freeze" starting late Nov 2010, the post office promptly bolted closed all postboxes, and Tesco and Amazon both refused to take any online orders for anywhere in the wider region for weeks. 

And that did need the Army in the end - come the eventual stop, after something like six weeks with falling snow every day, the pavements across almost all the city had 8-10 inches of compacted snow-ice, so everyone had to walk in the roads (most of which had been impassable for most of the previous weeks). In some areas, pneumatic drills had to be used to break it up. 

I think also in places like the US it's a legal obligation to shovel snow from the "sidewalks" in front of your home. In the UK it isn't, people just leave it to go hard & icy. If people got off their backsides & did the same we wouldn't have as many problems but most people these days have a "not my problem" attitude. Places like New York can have something like 24 inches in as many hours - I was over there in Feb 2003 when that happened but apart from the airport shutting down for a while not much else did, it was still as bustly as ever. I can understand in more rural communities it would be difficult if we got another 62/63 but I think in the end in more built up areas people would cope but then again we just don't know, we can only speculate.

We had snow on the ground at the end of November 2010 & most of December 2010 with very little thawing apart from the milder blip around mid December but I don't recall major supermarkets shutting for any length of time or difficulties getting essentials like bread & milk etc. Again in more rural spots with nothing around for miles it would be difficult. I live in a semi rural part of a town where I live but at the same time I'm only a 10 mins drive from a large Tesco & Morissons. I had a hard time getting deliveries from Amazon etc but other than that outside in shops it was just quieter than normal. It was great getting served quick. Also I don't think you had falling snow every single day for six weeks because there was a mild blip nationwide in the December which would have broken the cycle before the cold surged back.

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Posted
  • Location: Irlam
  • Location: Irlam
On 19/09/2019 at 22:34, northwestsnow said:

NW winds best for you but comes with same issues as a wnw, irish sea temps!

Can imagine some classics from a nw direction in winters past when sea temps were a little colder.

I think the strength of the wind seems to be the issue. It is notable that when the wind dropped, these set-ups deliver. 

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Posted
  • Location: Telford, c.150m asl
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, ice, cold
  • Location: Telford, c.150m asl
1 minute ago, Frost HoIIow said:

I think also in places like the US it's a legal obligation to shovel snow from the "sidewalks" in front of your home. In the UK it isn't, people just leave it to go hard & icy. If people got off their backsides & did the same we wouldn't have as many problems but most people these days have a "not my problem" attitude. Places like New York can have something like 24 inches in as many hours - I was over there in Feb 2003 when that happened but apart from the airport shutting down for a while not much else did, it was still as bustly as ever. I can understand in more rural communities it would be difficult if we got another 62/63 but I think in the end in more built up areas people would cope but then again we just don't know, we can only speculate.

We had snow on the ground at the end of November 2010 & most of December 2010 with very little thawing apart from the milder blip around mid December but I don't recall major supermarkets shutting for any length of time or difficulties getting essentials like bread & milk etc. Again in more rural spots with nothing around for miles it would be difficult. I live in a semi rural part of a town where I live but at the same time I'm only a 10 mins drive from a large Tesco & Morissons. I had a hard time getting deliveries from Amazon etc but other than that outside in shops it was just quieter than normal. It was great getting served quick. Also I don't think you had falling snow every single day for six weeks because there was a mild blip nationwide in the December which would have broken the cycle before the cold surged back.

Oh, it turned out that it is a legal obligation in the UK as well but it's so rare for it to be a problem, esp in Edinburgh, that nobody knew, or had tools, etc... eventually people started to get the hang of it but by then there was so much compacted on most pavements it was impossible. We were lucky in the street I used to live in, a little dead-end lane, because we had one 87-year-old and one 65-year-old and they nipped out sharpish after each fall and cleared a track to the main road - then the 87-year-old went on holiday, and the woman next door and I tried and totally failed to keep on top of it and in the end after a weke she had to get three hefty builders from her work to come and clear it for cash!  


Edinburgh has its own micro-climate - that winter of 2009-2010 when the entire UK was blanketed in snow? Literally not a single lying flake and hardly any falling. I was lamp-post watching in despair. Then late Nov 2010 it walloped in like anything, and I stopped bothering (!) to measure it once it was over 20 inches in the back garden. Week after week it was that deep, hardly any vehicles moved, it was amazing. I used to go out on foot with our wooden sledge to help folk home with their shopping. We hadn't had snow like that since 1979-80 winter, my first one living there as a child. 
I may be mistaken about it being every single day, but if you have access to records, it wouldn't surprise me in the least if Edinburgh didn't have that warm blip in December. Certainly there was nothing resembling a thaw. My recollection is that there was fresh snow every single morning because I was going out before dawn to sweep a path to the birdbath, to fill it, having swept ice and water out at dusk each evening (because it was less effort than trudging back and forth with kettles trying to thaw a frozen birdbath in the morning!). That first winter when I was ten we had two weeks when it didn't go above zero celsius and I remember thinking it must surely be very similar with the snow needing swept every morning. 


Telford, on the other hand, had incredible snow on Dec 7/8 2017, when we had an incredible blizzard from a NWerly Cheshire Gap Streamer, on the Friday, followed on the Sunday by blizzards coming up from the SW from a totally separate weather system. By the Tuesday when I tried to unbury the car it took over two hours to shift the frozen snow, which was 27cm deep on the roof of the car and had frozen completely in -12C overnights... I learnt then never to leave a car buried if you plan to use it before spring  

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Posted
  • Location: Medlock Valley, Oldham, 103 metres/337 feet ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Cold, snow, thunderstorms, warm summers not too hot.
  • Location: Medlock Valley, Oldham, 103 metres/337 feet ASL

I think this country could learn off how Russia deals with snow. The "golden hands" machine makes me chuckle every time. 

 

Edited by Frost HoIIow
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Posted
  • Location: North York Moors
  • Location: North York Moors

It seems like a complicated way to do the same job as a snow blower.
In 2009 and 2010 the local agricultural contactors who couldn't do much else during the prolonged snowy spell trailered away many loads that had been piled up in some of the more congested villages round here, they just used conventional JCB style loading shovels though 

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Posted
  • Location: Edmonton Alberta(via Chelmsford, Exeter & Calgary)
  • Weather Preferences: Sunshine and 15-25c
  • Location: Edmonton Alberta(via Chelmsford, Exeter & Calgary)
4 hours ago, 4wd said:

It seems like a complicated way to do the same job as a snow blower.
In 2009 and 2010 the local agricultural contactors who couldn't do much else during the prolonged snowy spell trailered away many loads that had been piled up in some of the more congested villages round here, they just used conventional JCB style loading shovels though 

that's pretty standard here..landscape contractors in the summer they do gardening and landscaping (obviously) winter they do snow removal..they charge around $125/month to clear your driveways and sidewalks..they come out every time there is a snowfall of 1cm or more..or do it yourself for free.

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Posted
  • Location: North York Moors
  • Location: North York Moors

They do regular snowploughing routinely too, and get paid to be on standby even when it isn't snowing.
It's the carting away of piles from in town - to release parking areas or whatever - that is quite unusual in England anyway.

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Posted
  • Location: Manchester
  • Location: Manchester
On 08/09/2019 at 16:56, Frost HoIIow said:

The Winter ended up pretty decent here after a somewhat disappointing start although we had some snow cover in December. Between the 2nd & 11th February 2012 I recorded 7 ice days here with a decent fall of snow on the 4th. Holbeach recorded a minimum of -15.6C during that spell. I think for England it was a better spell of cold than anything we saw between 1997-2008. The far west of the UK & Ireland missed out completely on any proper cold though.

243046971_NWS-NOAA_Europe_Extreme_minimum_temperature_FEB_5_-_FEB_11_2012.thumb.gif.59d99678b4c5a4c9da7670d1c83a38a6.gif

Just seen this, very surprised you recorded so many ice days in February 2012. There was only one day at Manchester Airport that failed to get above zero. As far as I remember that spell was a bit of a non-event for much of the UK. Just mostly cloudy and raw feeling. On the Continent it was a different story however. The second half of the month was mild almost all the way and there were some very high temperatures recorded.

I remember 2011/12 as being a mild and sunny winter- one of my favourites in fact.

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I haven't really commented on this thread thus far however firstly in terms of absolutes no-one can say 100% yes or 100% no-

Probability wise the fact the UK's weather patterns are loosely based around the same cyclical reoccurring patterns then should the status quo of the lower atmosphere / upper atmosphere & thermal dynamics all stay the same its reasonable to assume that over a period of say 200 years if there have been 4 or 5 periods say of these consecutive cold winters at a 1:50 year rate then within the next 50 years a run will occur again.

Based on statistics & frequency you could calculate the exact probability.

The reality here is probably in the next 50 year a slight increase in probability due to the current favourable changes over the pole in terms of increasing geopotential heights & reduced sea ice forcing > This is of course a broad statement however just aligning this increase towards the general theme of 'supporting UK cold then its only fair to say that an incremental increase in probability is on offer...

What could become more probable though is more extremes of cold & warm mitigating the overall net cold - so monthly CET values may become the chosen method rather than seasonal cold....

Best 

S

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Posted
  • Location: Medlock Valley, Oldham, 103 metres/337 feet ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Cold, snow, thunderstorms, warm summers not too hot.
  • Location: Medlock Valley, Oldham, 103 metres/337 feet ASL
5 hours ago, Scorcher said:

Just seen this, very surprised you recorded so many ice days in February 2012. There was only one day at Manchester Airport that failed to get above zero. As far as I remember that spell was a bit of a non-event for much of the UK. Just mostly cloudy and raw feeling. On the Continent it was a different story however. The second half of the month was mild almost all the way and there were some very high temperatures recorded.

I remember 2011/12 as being a mild and sunny winter- one of my favourites in fact.

It was mild in the December (apart from one brief snow cover) & January but the first half of Feb was anything but away from the far west, I think what skewed your opinion at that time was how cold the previous 2 Winters were (it was always going to be difficult to compete with Winter 2009-2010 & Dec 2010 though) If you look back at the airport's history in that February cold spell (especially the max temps) it beat pretty much everything in the poor 1997-2008 era (apart from late Dec 2000) so if Feb 2012 occured in that era it would have been classed as a decent cold spell. 

In the daytime I'm often about 2C colder than the airport & under clear skies at night I've known it be 4C colder. So during February 2012 we had quite a number of ice days around here. At the same time the airport was around 1 or 2C. 

Manchester airport is colder than more urban areas of Manchester but it's certainly not what I'd call a potent frost hollow. Certainly not compared with here. Where I am cold drains down the very steep slope to my N/NE from Oldham town centre to where I am. There's roughly a 350 feet difference between here & there in a relatively short distance. The same happens with places like Benson as well. I also live on a farm in a semi rural part of Failsworth surrounded by fields. This would knock a few degrees off compared to urban areas of Gtr Manc/Oldham as well so there's a couple of factors that adds weight to the meteorological conditions around this area. Here's what a frost hollow is https://www.weatheronline.co.uk/reports/wxfacts/Frost-hollow.htm

Edited by Frost HoIIow
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Posted
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
  • Weather Preferences: Heavy disruptive snowfall.
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
5 minutes ago, Frost HoIIow said:

It was mild in the December (apart from one brief snow cover) & January but the first half of Feb was anything but away from the far west, I think what skewed your opinion at that time was how cold the previous 2 Winters were (it was always going to be difficult to compete with Winter 2009-2010 & Dec 2010 though) If you look back at the airport's history in that February cold spell (especially the max temps) it beat pretty much everything in the poor 1997-2008 era (apart from late Dec 2000) so if Feb 2012 occured in that era it would have been classed as a decent cold spell. 

In the daytime I'm often about 2C colder than the airport & under clear skies at night I've known it be 4C colder. So during February 2012 we had quite a number of ice days around here. At the same time the airport was around 1 or 2C. 

Manchester airport is colder than more urban areas of Manchester but it's certainly not what I'd call a potent frost hollow. Certainly not compared with here. Where I am cold drains down the very steep slope to my N/NE from Oldham town centre to where I am. There's roughly a 350 feet difference between here & there in a relatively short distance. The same happens with places like Benson as well. I also live on a farm in a semi rural part of Failsworth surrounded by fields. This would knock a few degrees off compared to urban areas of Gtr Manc/Oldham as well so there's a couple of factors that adds weight to the meteorological conditions around this area. Here's what a frost hollow is https://www.weatheronline.co.uk/reports/wxfacts/Frost-hollow.htm

I think another thing that skewed people's views (including my own) that winter was what might have been, some ridiculous runs came out even in the semi reliable in the run up to that cold spell and the fact that on that saturday when i got 10cm of snow also was the day that the Met Office 30 dayer went from very cold and snowy the whole Feb to mild South Westerlies so it was a sickening collapse, these sort of charts were coming out regularly in the run up.

 

image.thumb.png.1e4a1eabd068e5dc478b122ebff725fe.png

 

 

 

image.png

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Posted
  • Location: Tyrone
  • Location: Tyrone

Sticking my neck out here but why not we are currently on a record run with solar cycle 24 low min almost here and cycle 25 predictions not much better so i would say within the next 3 years fingers crossed it starts this year but i would say next year is the bullseye with possibility of La Niña starting next year also

2010 combined well with solar min & La Niña

Screenshot_20190924-215653_Drive.jpg

solarcycle25b.jpg

Edited by booferking
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Posted
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunder, snow, heat, sunshine...
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.

Well I'm with David Snow on this one: 2012-13 was only 7 years' back, and the BFTE, a mere 18 months...And, there's nae been anywhere near enough warming, since then, to make cold winters non-existent...?

I reckon far too many peeps are following the white rabbit, straight into the Mad Hatter's large tea party!:santa-emoji:

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Posted
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
  • Weather Preferences: Heavy disruptive snowfall.
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
10 minutes ago, booferking said:

Sticking my neck out here but why not we are currently on a record run with solar cycle 24 low min almost here and cycle 25 predictions not much better so i would say within the next 3 years fingers crossed it starts this year but i would say next year is the bullseye with possibility of La Niña starting next year also

2010 combined well with solar min & La Niña

Screenshot_20190924-215653_Drive.jpg

solarcycle25b.jpg

December 2010 i take it - What QBO was it in December 2010? and was it already set in or a descending one?

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Posted
  • Location: Coniston, Cumbria 90m ASL
  • Weather Preferences: wintry
  • Location: Coniston, Cumbria 90m ASL
29 minutes ago, booferking said:

Sticking my neck out here but why not we are currently on a record run with solar cycle 24 low min almost here and cycle 25 predictions not much better so i would say within the next 3 years fingers crossed it starts this year but i would say next year is the bullseye with possibility of La Niña starting next year also

2010 combined well with solar min & La Niña

Screenshot_20190924-215653_Drive.jpg

solarcycle25b.jpg

Interesting that in that info there are 2 periods more that were La Nina than El Nino conditions...40 vs 38...

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Posted
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
  • Weather Preferences: Heavy disruptive snowfall.
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
18 minutes ago, booferking said:

 

qbo_wind.jpg

Thanks, think a w-qbo can be underestimated with La Nina / solar min sometimes, because although generally SSW's are more likely in solar min but are more likely in solar max when in a w-qbo than an e-qbo, that automatically gives the impression w-qbo's are useless but you don't need an official SSW to get a good winter, you can have a strat-trop-strat-trop trickle type winter.

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Posted
  • Location: Redhill, Surrey
  • Weather Preferences: Southerly tracking LPs, heavy snow. Also 25c and calm
  • Location: Redhill, Surrey

I’m of the opinion yes.  Indeed I think an aggressive cool pattern for autumn is setting up......leading to stints of well below average temps for both Oct and Nov.

Big Steve Murr makes imo a very good point though re themes of extremes either way impacting on seasonal CET.

 

BFTP

 

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