Will we get another 2008-2013 run of colder winters again?

[Frost HoIIow]

1 hour ago, Aleman said:

It's not quite as simple as that. I remember the late 70s winters. We often had cold powder snow blowing in on a stiff northeasterly. It drifted across the roads and closed them. They ploughed and, because there was plenty of powder that was not sticky, it drifted across the roads and closed them again without any more new snow actually falling.

Those types of conditions are pretty rare in this country though - they was in the 70s too, we had a run of mild Winters up until later in that decade. The person I was replying to said things stop working in this country with 2" of snow. It doesn't matter if it's level snow or drifted snow 2" inches of either should not cause issues or panic. If we can't cope with that then it's like a 3rd world country. 

[cheeky_monkey]

IMO this winter in the UK will be a huuummmdinnnger of a winter!!

[johnholmes]

20 hours ago, Frost HoIIow said:

I don't think it would be as catastrophic as people think. Most importantly peoples homes are warmer now than in the past. I lived through 62/63 when we only had one fire in the house (living room), no central heating at all & no indoor toilet....we had to break the ice in the toilet bowl. Most elderly people these days have central heating so can stay warm throughout their home. I guess the downside is going out to get shopping if they don't have family to fetch it for them. That's where the problems start if they have mobility/blood pressure/heart issues & most people over 75 do.

Yes most but not all do have central heating. However that needs power to make it work. Not 100% certain that the electricity supply would cope with a 62-63 winter or a 47 one.

Also the UK infrastructure is totally different from those winters. We all rely on transport bringing our food and other needs to our own area. Again I do wonder how a 47 or 62-63 winter would be dealt with for roads, rail, air.

Yes I am old enough to have strong memories of both those winters.

[johnholmes]

Latest ENSO out

https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/enso_advisory/index.shtml

[Froze were the Days]

1 hour ago, BornFromTheVoid said:

SLP anomaly for June, July and August this year

The individual maps for May, June, July and August.

We've had 4 consecutive months with the NAO below -1.0, which is the most consistent run of moderate/strong -ve NAO months since summer 2008, which is quite surprising to me.

Thanks for that...clears it up, yes May and June as I thought, the lower anomalies over Europe I still find mystifying and it seems so strange how the Atlantic low pressure systems consistently just steer away from the continent. Have to say August is little more how I believed both July and August to be as we have had largely consistent south westerly or westerly breezes (far more than recent summers) and if you looked at that anomaly for August you'd think it would have been unsettled - far from it in the south east. Neg NAO by and large due to the omnipresent High over Greenland but since end of June had little influence here... 

I suppose looking at those thumbnails they don't always tell the full picture, June maybe the more obvious one.

Edited September 12, 2019 by Froze were the Days

[Kirkcaldy Weather]

8 minutes ago, johnholmes said:

Latest ENSO out

https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/enso_advisory/index.shtml

Does anyone have a list of neutral ENSO years / winters?

[Beet]

I'd love to have a well below average CET winter this winter with lots of snow. However, it has been difficult to achieve a below average CET month recently, and when we do, it's not much below average. The last time it was actually well below average was March 2013, which was 6 and half years ago. It's because of this I find it highly discouraging and hard to believe we'll get an actually cold winter this time around.

[Froze were the Days]

Last time we had a winter month more than 1c below average for the CET was the infamous December 2010...that puts things into context.

[Katrine Basso]

12 minutes ago, Kirkcaldy Weather said:

Does anyone have a list of neutral ENSO years / winters?

I hope this will be of help:

https://ggweather.com/enso/oni.htm

[Aleman]

21 hours ago, Frost HoIIow said:

I don't think it would be as catastrophic as people think. Most importantly peoples homes are warmer now than in the past. I lived through 62/63 when we only had one fire in the house (living room), no central heating at all & no indoor toilet....we had to break the ice in the toilet bowl. Most elderly people these days have central heating so can stay warm throughout their home. I guess the downside is going out to get shopping if they don't have family to fetch it for them. That's where the problems start if they have mobility/blood pressure/heart issues & most people over 75 do.

We've got a bit complacent on energy supply in the UK in cold winters. Everyone assumes cold won't last but what if it does? There's not as much spare capacity in gas and electricity supply as some experts would like

I've already posted about how we've lost another coal station this month  - 4% of supply - and the French interconnector might be unreliable due to weld problems at nuclear stations - also about 4% of supply - so we might be skating on thin ice this winter in terms of electric capacity as it was matched by demand a few times last winter for very brief spells, although renewables generation should be up again - but that's less consistent. Then consider that we nearly ran out of gas storage buffer through March 2018.

Electricity grid supply and demand

http://www.gridwatch.templar.co.uk/

We used up about 2/3rds of stored gas last winter and nearly all of it the previous year.

http://mip-prod-web.azurewebsites.net/PrevailingViewGraph/ViewReport?prevailingViewGraph=ActualStorageStockLevelsGraph&gasDate=2019-09-12

Do we have enough gas storage?

https://www.argusmedia.com/en/blog/2018/may/9/uk-government-rebuffs-gas-storage-pressure

I'm a bit wary myself. I think it's a bit dangerous to assume UK winters will only get warmer and that other EU countries can supply extra needed when it's very cold. There seems to be an assumption that interconnectors will always be available (despite current doubts about French nuclear) and that Europe won't all be cold at the same time. What would happen if we had another 78 or 63 or 47? We've all gone soft in our centrally heated modern homes and offices. How would we cope if it were -5C and snowing for more than a month, pipes were bursting all over, and spot prices of gas and electricity rocketed because we did not have enough spare?

Edited September 12, 2019 by Aleman

[cheeky_monkey]

59 minutes ago, Froze were the Days said:

Last time we had a winter month more than 1c below average for the CET was the infamous December 2010...that puts things into context.

February 2019 here was over 14c below normal..imagine getting that in the UK 

[Don]

4 hours ago, feb1991blizzard said:

Another absolutely desperate model run for winter - thats the 2 most rated models showing a stinking great big Bartlett all winter.

The way I look at it is at least we are less likely to be disappointed this year, unlike last when the long range models were churning out delightful outputs that failed to materialise!  Also, as last year proved, even during a very mild winter, some places can get lucky and receive substantial snow amounts.

Edited September 12, 2019 by Don

[Frost HoIIow]

1 hour ago, johnholmes said:

Yes most but not all do have central heating. However that needs power to make it work. Not 100% certain that the electricity supply would cope with a 62-63 winter or a 47 one.

Also the UK infrastructure is totally different from those winters. We all rely on transport bringing our food and other needs to our own area. Again I do wonder how a 47 or 62-63 winter would be dealt with for roads, rail, air.

Yes I am old enough to have strong memories of both those winters.

I see your point but past severe Winters also relied on the transport network for bringing in supplies...not everyone had an allotment or their own food supply. There was still shops back in 62/63....which funnily enough needed transportation to get in the supplies. In regards to the power network we don't really know how it will cope. Not enough to panic about it. If things get bad in regards to supplies like food why not call in the army?

Edited September 12, 2019 by Frost HoIIow

[Don]

16 minutes ago, cheeky_monkey said:

February 2019 here was over 14c below normal..imagine getting that in the UK 

No wonder it got so mild here.  All the cold air in the world was over Canada, leaving nowt for anyone else!

[Weather-history]

I wonder how many realise that winter 1978-79 is the 15th wettest winter on record for England and Wales? 

 

[hillbilly]

5 minutes ago, Weather-history said:

I wonder how many realise that winter 1978-79 is the 15th wettest winter on record for England and Wales? 

 

March also was incredibly wet,April medium wet and a very wet May!

[Cheshire Freeze]

7 hours ago, Kirkcaldy Weather said:

Let the panicking commence  personally I would rather just wait and see what the shorter range charts are showing as we head through November and toward winter, we all remember how quickly 2010 and the BFTE developed. And if anyone is interested in the forecast for USA / Canada https://www.almanac.com/old-farmers-almanac-2020-winter-forecast

Awful output from both the GLOSEA and EC seasonal.

One shred of comfort (if you could call it that) is that the EC has the HP anomaly focused more towards the SW rather than the S or SE.

[Cheshire Freeze]

Just for balance- none of the models spotted the persistent and at times hefty -AO and -NAO patterns this summer just gone. 

It could be that neither model are spotting the chance of any SSW..unlike last year when they did but misread the consequences of it.

Edited September 12, 2019 by CreweCold

[DAVID SNOW]

These models that look into the future (3 months ahead) are purely experimental, so I wouldn't worry about what they show tbh, cold or mild or anything for that matter.

[damianslaw]

2 hours ago, Froze were the Days said:

Last time we had a winter month more than 1c below average for the CET was the infamous December 2010...that puts things into context.

Yes nearing 9 years now.. I think we had a longer run pre Feb 2009, though not sure, don't recall any winter month between Feb 97 and Feb 09 being 1 degree or below the mean, possibly Jan or Feb 01..

Edited September 12, 2019 by damianslaw

[NeilN]

7 minutes ago, DAVID SNOW said:

These models that look into the future (3 months ahead) are purely experimental, so I wouldn't worry about what they show tbh, cold or mild or anything for that matter.

This is it. Yes I did react OTT about it, but the weather forecast can't even get tomorrow right, yet alone three months away! Plus perhaps this is reverse psychology - mild winter = cold winter? Didn't the models predict 2009/10 to be mild, only to be stung with it being the coldest for 30 years? 

[Weather-history]

2 hours ago, Froze were the Days said:

Last time we had a winter month more than 1c below average for the CET was the infamous December 2010...that puts things into context.

You haven't given a frame of reference though.

February 2018 was 1.3C below the 1971-2000 average. 

Edited September 12, 2019 by Weather-history

[Methuselah]

11 minutes ago, DAVID SNOW said:

These models that look into the future (3 months ahead) are purely experimental, so I wouldn't worry about what they show tbh, cold or mild or anything for that matter.

Same goes for most of the humans, Dave: one could predict 'average to mild' every single year (using no skill whatsoever) and still be right 8 or 9 times more often than James Madden, Piers Corbyn, 'Big Joe' or Nathan Rao!

[summer blizzard]

Feb 18 was below that threshold for the 1981-2010 average.

[Kirkcaldy Weather]

2 hours ago, Katrine Basso said:

I hope this will be of help:

https://ggweather.com/enso/oni.htm

Thanks 

56 minutes ago, CreweCold said:

Awful output from both the GLOSEA and EC seasonal.

One shred of comfort (if you could call it that) is that the EC has the HP anomaly focused more towards the SW rather than the S or SE.

 CANSIPS from 31st August (not sure when it updates)

November   December  January  February  

March