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Will we get another 2008-2013 run of colder winters again?


Sunny76

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Posted
  • Location: Windermere 120m asl
  • Location: Windermere 120m asl
9 minutes ago, philglossop said:

In simple terms, yes we will.

There's little denying that post March 2013 we went into a warmer period, but remember that following the dreadful floodings from December 2013-March 2014, we were all talking in terms of dreadful flooding becoming almost a regular thing. Luckily, it's not happened- although I'd say the spell January to April 2018 came mightily close down here.

I'd say that we'll see statistically a good "cold" winter, as likely as a very very cold one. As a wise man once said -"The old roulette wheel of life must throw up the odd Zero".

December 2010, was my lifetime on a par with the deep cold of January 1987 and February 1986 which was a very blocked cold Easterly period. So we could have a wait, or it could happen this year.

Could we cope with a 1963 or 1947 would be my only concern given the circumstances at the moment!

Don't want to get political, but your last sentence has made me think how in recent decades, changes in government have occurred just after times of wintry fayre... Winter 78/79 - tumultuous time 'winter of discontent' - followed by change in power to conservatives... winters 95-96 and part of 96/97 saw a time when labour were steaming ahead - 1996 was a cold year, and thereafter we saw them win the election, winter 09/10 preceded a change back to the conservatives winning election with help of liberals... 2010 was a cold year.. mmm chances of another winter marking an about turn in politics.... coincidence?

Edited by damianslaw
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Posted
  • Location: Coniston, Cumbria 90m ASL
  • Weather Preferences: wintry
  • Location: Coniston, Cumbria 90m ASL
1 hour ago, damianslaw said:

Don't want to get political, but your last sentence has made me think how in recent decades, changes in government have occurred just after times of wintry fayre... Winter 78/79 - tumultuous time 'winter of discontent' - followed by change in power to conservatives... winters 95-96 and part of 96/97 saw a time when labour were steaming ahead - 1996 was a cold year, and thereafter we saw them win the election, winter 09/10 preceded a change back to the conservatives winning election with help of liberals... 2010 was a cold year.. mmm chances of another winter marking an about turn in politics.... coincidence?

We can but hope on all counts!

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Posted
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
  • Weather Preferences: Heavy disruptive snowfall.
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
18 hours ago, damianslaw said:

Don't want to get political, but your last sentence has made me think how in recent decades, changes in government have occurred just after times of wintry fayre... Winter 78/79 - tumultuous time 'winter of discontent' - followed by change in power to conservatives... winters 95-96 and part of 96/97 saw a time when labour were steaming ahead - 1996 was a cold year, and thereafter we saw them win the election, winter 09/10 preceded a change back to the conservatives winning election with help of liberals... 2010 was a cold year.. mmm chances of another winter marking an about turn in politics.... coincidence?

And the winter of 90-91 was heralded by John Major taking over from Margaret Thatcher as well, although not technically a change of Government, it really was the beginning of the end for the Tories and in any case a big shift in EU policy.

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Posted
  • Location: Cleeve, North Somerset
  • Weather Preferences: Continental winters & summers.
  • Location: Cleeve, North Somerset
19 hours ago, Sunny76 said:

In some ways Feb 09 gets forgotten now

A bit like good summers that are overshadowed by excellent summers eg 1975 and 1976 or 2005 and 2006.

However Feb 2009 still brought the highest number of snowfalls here in one week! 2nd, 3rd, 5th, 6th and 8th. It was the best run of channel lows I’ve ever witnessed.

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Posted
  • Location: Edmonton Alberta(via Chelmsford, Exeter & Calgary)
  • Weather Preferences: Sunshine and 15-25c
  • Location: Edmonton Alberta(via Chelmsford, Exeter & Calgary)
2 hours ago, MP-R said:

A bit like good summers that are overshadowed by excellent summers eg 1975 and 1976 or 2005 and 2006.

However Feb 2009 still brought the highest number of snowfalls here in one week! 2nd, 3rd, 5th, 6th and 8th. It was the best run of channel lows I’ve ever witnessed.

Probably because it had a cet of 4.1c so overall wasn't cold...apart from a cold and somewhat snowy first week it was pretty meh..ive seen colder and snowier Febs

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Posted
  • Location: Longden, Shropshire
  • Location: Longden, Shropshire
2 hours ago, MP-R said:

A bit like good summers that are overshadowed by excellent summers eg 1975 and 1976 or 2005 and 2006.

However Feb 2009 still brought the highest number of snowfalls here in one week! 2nd, 3rd, 5th, 6th and 8th. It was the best run of channel lows I’ve ever witnessed.

The Thames streamer of 2nd February brought me my largest snowfall since at least January 1982, just a shame the month went pear shaped later on.  However, January 6th 2010 nearly equaled those depths and the snow stayed on the ground longer as a result of more intense blocking and longer lasting cold, so February 2009 was overshadowed by the likes of January and December 2010.

Edited by Don
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Posted
  • Location: Edmonton Alberta(via Chelmsford, Exeter & Calgary)
  • Weather Preferences: Sunshine and 15-25c
  • Location: Edmonton Alberta(via Chelmsford, Exeter & Calgary)
3 minutes ago, Don said:

The Thames streamer of 2nd February brought me my largest snowfall since at least January 1982.  A shame the month went pear shaped later on.

as footnote to Feb 2009 it was also the mildest month of that winter both Dec and Jan were a degree or more colder

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Posted
  • Location: Crewe, Cheshire
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, storms and other extremes
  • Location: Crewe, Cheshire

Best thing to do is keep an eye on N hemispheric patterns in November. This will give you the biggest clue as to where the winter may head.

In response to the original question, yes we will.

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Posted
  • Location: NW LONDON
  • Weather Preferences: Sun, sleet, Snow
  • Location: NW LONDON
31 minutes ago, CreweCold said:

Best thing to do is keep an eye on N hemispheric patterns in November. This will give you the biggest clue as to where the winter may head.

In response to the original question, yes we will.

don't forget the OFI

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Posted
  • Location: Longden, Shropshire
  • Location: Longden, Shropshire
44 minutes ago, cheeky_monkey said:

as footnote to Feb 2009 it was also the mildest month of that winter both Dec and Jan were a degree or more colder

Yes, strange that.  I remember early in the month, all LRF’s were pointing towards the possibility of a notably cold and snowy month.  Didn’t turn out like that, but at least the following year made up for it!

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Posted
  • Location: Walsall Wood, Walsall, West Midlands 145m ASL
  • Location: Walsall Wood, Walsall, West Midlands 145m ASL

There is often a tendency to feel as though our most recent example or examples of a particular season has become the norm for all time. A bit like how the example of Winter 2013/14 was brought up as an example at the time of how some contemporary opinions, tried to suggest that was the new normal.

On the other hand I remember hearing some opine during the 2008 to 13 period that we could expect Winters like those to become the new normal, until 2014 came along.

I take comfort in the fact that Winter 2009/10 on the whole was the coldest since 1978/79. December 2010 was the coldest since 1890, as well as been the second coldest in the entire CET record after that one. And not forgetting that March 2013 was also the coldest since 1892. To have achieved all that in the space of just over 3 years is quite something that I think we fail to appreciate sometimes.  But to answer your question I'd say it's more likely than not at some point I guess.

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Posted
  • Location: Medlock Valley, Oldham, 103 metres/337 feet ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Cold, snow, thunderstorms, warm summers not too hot.
  • Location: Medlock Valley, Oldham, 103 metres/337 feet ASL
1 hour ago, Walsall Wood Snow said:

There is often a tendency to feel as though our most recent example or examples of a particular season has become the norm for all time. A bit like how the example of Winter 2013/14 was brought up as an example at the time of how some contemporary opinions, tried to suggest that was the new normal.

On the other hand I remember hearing some opine during the 2008 to 13 period that we could expect Winters like those to become the new normal, until 2014 came along.

I take comfort in the fact that Winter 2009/10 on the whole was the coldest since 1978/79. December 2010 was the coldest since 1890, as well as been the second coldest in the entire CET record after that one. And not forgetting that March 2013 was also the coldest since 1892. To have achieved all that in the space of just over 3 years is quite something that I think we fail to appreciate sometimes.  But to answer your question I'd say it's more likely than not at some point I guess.

Yes whilst November/December 2010 was amazing in it's own right the following January & February were a complete contrast with February being especially mild - basically that Winter burst out the blocks quick but went out with a whimper whilst as you say the previous Winter had decent snow & cold during all 3 Winter months. The only Winter since then that has come close was 2013 with snow cover in Jan, Feb & March (Although the latter not meteorologically Winter). And that was the unusual thing about that year with March actually having a colder CET than all of the preceding Winter months. 

Edited by Frost HoIIow
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Posted
  • Location: Leeds
  • Weather Preferences: snow, heat, thunderstorms
  • Location: Leeds
5 hours ago, feb1991blizzard said:

Ever????

Never ever.

I’d love a repeat of Feb-Mar last year, or March 2013. December and January 2010 were colder but the Marches of 2013/2018 were snowier here. Both months produced the best drifting snow I’ve ever seen in Leeds and probably as close to blizzard conditions that I’m ever going to see here. Winter 2012/2012 was exceptionally snowy overall.

But I think we’ll be breaking far more winter records like February 2019 in the coming years, which to be fair I don’t really mind as long as it’s not wet and windy.

Edited by cheese
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Posted
  • Location: Wildwood, Stafford 104m asl
  • Weather Preferences: obviously snow!
  • Location: Wildwood, Stafford 104m asl

Yes, only winter records we'll be seeing are for warmth, date temp records etc

but would like another Feb 2019! but fear the winters like 2013-2014 will become more common, and Dec 2015 style months

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Posted
  • Location: halifax 125m
  • Weather Preferences: extremes the unusual and interesting facts
  • Location: halifax 125m
30 minutes ago, cheese said:

Never ever.

I’d love a repeat of Feb-Mar last year, or March 2013. December and January 2010 were colder but the Marches of 2013/2018 were snowier here. Both months produced the best drifting snow I’ve ever seen in Leeds and probably as close to blizzard conditions that I’m ever going to see here. Winter 2012/2012 was exceptionally snowy overall.

But I think we’ll be breaking far more winter records like February 2019 in the coming years, which to be fair I don’t really mind as long as it’s not wet and windy.

Looking at our local Met office records at Bradford the 'Air frost' records show 2012/2013 extended winter handsomely beat 2009/010 with 70 and 57 respectively in fact only 1979 stands higher all the way back to 1963,just shows how extraordinary that winter was.

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Posted
  • Location: Walsall Wood, Walsall, West Midlands 145m ASL
  • Location: Walsall Wood, Walsall, West Midlands 145m ASL

All this talk of never again. I remember for most of the 00s there been that type of talk and then along came the run of Winters we're discussing. Then of course there been the case of the late Feb/March major cold spells of just last year. I bet you thought that was never going to happen before it did either. We're still going to have the odd major cold spell visit our shores from time to time I'm sure even if less frequent. And for all we know they could increase in frequency due to a quiet sun or something like that. The truth is though that our Winters have always been mild overall really. This is just a fact of our position off the western edge of a major continentental landmass. It's just that many on this forum remember the period ranging back to the 40s even up into the 80s when cold spells in Winter did tend to be more frequent    though by no means always and much of the 70s was devoid it seems. But if you look into the Winters of the 1910s 20s and 30s, they seem to have been mostly mild overall. As I say some sort of climatic driver could cause Winter cold spells on these shores to increase, such as sun cycle, PDO cycle, ice melt, who knows really.

Edited by Walsall Wood Snow
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Posted
  • Location: Leeds/Bradford border, 185 metres above sea level, around 600 feet
  • Location: Leeds/Bradford border, 185 metres above sea level, around 600 feet
On 09/09/2019 at 20:42, hillbilly said:

Often a forgotten winter is that of 2005/2006[extended winter] which during those mild winters gave just 3 airfrosts less than 2009/2010 .I remember fields being yellow in March/April as in a severe winter,that didn't even happen in 2010 and had to wait until 2013 to see that again.

The winter of 2006 is one which is remembered fondly by many. Extremely sunny, very dry and very frosty/foggy although we narrowly missed out on the true cold that hit Europe in late Jan.

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Posted
  • Location: Scouthead Oldham 295mASL
  • Location: Scouthead Oldham 295mASL
1 hour ago, I remember Atlantic 252 said:

Yes, only winter records we'll be seeing are for warmth, date temp records etc

but would like another Feb 2019! but fear the winters like 2013-2014 will become more common, and Dec 2015 style months

Agreed.

 

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Posted
  • Location: Edmonton Alberta(via Chelmsford, Exeter & Calgary)
  • Weather Preferences: Sunshine and 15-25c
  • Location: Edmonton Alberta(via Chelmsford, Exeter & Calgary)
1 hour ago, I remember Atlantic 252 said:

Yes, only winter records we'll be seeing are for warmth, date temp records etc

but would like another Feb 2019! but fear the winters like 2013-2014 will become more common, and Dec 2015 style months

Depends where you live..here we have broken a few cold weather records in the last 2/3 years..and got pretty close to some others too...so anything is possible if you get the right synoptics

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Posted
  • Location: Longden, Shropshire
  • Location: Longden, Shropshire
2 hours ago, cheese said:

But I think we’ll be breaking far more winter records like February 2019 in the coming years, which to be fair I don’t really mind as long as it’s not wet and windy.

Had better start booking those winter holidays to Canada then, before their winters succumb to Global Warming, too!

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Posted
  • Location: Yorkshire
  • Location: Yorkshire

I've had two pipe bursts due to penetrating frosts in the last decade and you lot want more cold?

Also, have a think that UK electricity demand reach its full generation capacity, including interconnectors with Europe, last winter a few times in the short cold snap. This month sees closure of a coal power station that produced 4% of capacity, another 3% coal station closes in March and the French are having trouble with welds at EDF nuclear stations which might see shutdowns and imports from them of around 4% disappear. I like a little snow to say we've had a winter - but be careful what you wish for. I hope renewables capacity has risen enough this last year to cover closures and that they produce when its cold, dark or foggy and windless. Politicians seem to have us sailing a bit too close to the wind with generation.

http://www.gridwatch.templar.co.uk/

 

Edited by Aleman
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Posted
  • Location: Cleeve, North Somerset
  • Weather Preferences: Continental winters & summers.
  • Location: Cleeve, North Somerset
7 hours ago, cheeky_monkey said:

Probably because it had a cet of 4.1c so overall wasn't cold...apart from a cold and somewhat snowy first week it was pretty meh..ive seen colder and snowier Febs

Indeed. Marginal cold often delivers better than more severe cold. February 2012 a prime example - bitterly cold and minus double digits but not that much snow.

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Posted
  • Location: Shoreham-by-sea, West Sussex
  • Weather Preferences: T storms, severe gales, heat and sun, cold and snow
  • Location: Shoreham-by-sea, West Sussex
11 hours ago, I remember Atlantic 252 said:

Yes, only winter records we'll be seeing are for warmth, date temp records etc

but would like another Feb 2019! but fear the winters like 2013-2014 will become more common, and Dec 2015 style months

I’m sure people thought this during previous warmer periods in the last century before it cooled down again with colder winters, saying we’ll never get colder records again is silly, it was only just over a year ago we had the coldest March and spring maximum on record on 1st March 2018

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