Will we get another 2008-2013 run of colder winters again?

[Sunny76]

It’s just something I think about from time to time. But, apart from the beast of Feb/March 2018, most winters since 2013/14 have been on the mild side or average. Will we go back to the 2008/09 to 2012/13 period when winters were generally colder, but the summers were poor. Although they being said, some people on here would enjoy a 2011 or 2012 type summer.

Despite the milder winters in recent times, it hasn’t always guaranteed a good summer.

Your thoughts?

[DAVID SNOW]

100% Yes.

[johnholmes]

13 minutes ago, Sunny76 said:

It’s just something I think about from time to time. But, apart from the beast of Feb/March 2018, most winters since 2013/14 have been on the mild side or average. Will we go back to the 2008/09 to 2012/13 period when winters were generally colder, but the summers were poor. Although they being said, some people on here would enjoy a 2011 or 2012 type summer.

Despite the milder winters in recent times, it hasn’t always guaranteed a good summer.

Your thoughts?

No one has ever been able to show a 'real' link between one season and another. So far it appears that each season is independent of the previous seasons. Yes, there is the isolated instance where a theory seems to fit but it is then clear from subsequent years that there is no verifiable link. When I first joined the Met Office, with the huge data available to Met staff, I spent a huge number of 'quiet' hours on night duties trying to prove some kind of link but never got anywhere. Old forecasters at the time smiled and said you are not the first to try and no doubt not the last. Even with computers able to number crunch vast amounts of data nothing has so far emerged to show any success.

[Methuselah]

We'll always get runs of below-average winters -- by definition. But, as the long-term average slowly rises, so will the CETs of the coldest winters; and, as a result, winters like 1979 will become fewer and farther between...Indeed, snow events in general will become fewer and farther between...

[Norrance]

Even within that period you had winter 2011/12 spoiling the continuity as it was sunnier and milder than average, albeit stormy at times.

[Frost HoIIow]

3 hours ago, Norrance said:

Even within that period you had winter 2011/12 spoiling the continuity as it was sunnier and milder than average, albeit stormy at times.

The Winter ended up pretty decent here after a somewhat disappointing start although we had some snow cover in December. Between the 2nd & 11th February 2012 I recorded 7 ice days here with a decent fall of snow on the 4th. Holbeach recorded a minimum of -15.6C during that spell. I think for England it was a better spell of cold than anything we saw between 1997-2008. The far west of the UK & Ireland missed out completely on any proper cold though.

Edited September 8, 2019 by Frost HoIIow

[joggs]

Yes.

[Don]

Anything is possible but as Global warming continues, cold winters will become rarer and rarer.

[Sunny76]

4 hours ago, Ed Stone said:

We'll always get runs of below-average winters -- by definition. But, as the long-term average slowly rises, so will the CETs of the coldest winters; and, as a result, winters like 1979 will become fewer and farther between...Indeed, snow events in general will become fewer and farther between...

1979 is the year where some suggest warming began, although more subtlety. The winter of 1979-80 was much milder and almost snowless for many parts of England. 

[ItNeverSnowsInWindsor]

There’s bound to be a string of colder winters with the solar minimum

[NeilN]

Yes, I think it's possible. 

In terms of winter and CET's, something like 1963 is not achievable. The climate has changed since then, and that type of winter is a once a century thing. I could be wrong and it happens in the next 20-30 years! I think we are overdue something cold though, and I'd say something akin to the memorable 1980s winters or 2009/2010 might happen. 

[Sunny76]

1 hour ago, nn2013 said:

Yes, I think it's possible. 

In terms of winter and CET's, something like 1963 is not achievable. The climate has changed since then, and that type of winter is a once a century thing. I could be wrong and it happens in the next 20-30 years! I think we are overdue something cold though, and I'd say something akin to the memorable 1980s winters or 2009/2010 might happen. 

A 1979, 81, 87, 91 or 2009 or 10 would be great. But, I’ll happily take another 2018 with slightly more snow, although London and the south got quite a heavy dumping during that spell. The cold temps were very notable.

[NeilN]

1 hour ago, Sunny76 said:

A 1979, 81, 87, 91 or 2009 or 10 would be great. But, I’ll happily take another 2018 with slightly more snow, although London and the south got quite a heavy dumping during that spell. The cold temps were very notable.

I'm in agreement with you. From memory (I am too young to remember the memorable mid 80s ones as I was born late 1984), 2009-10 is the best winter I have experienced. Even down here in Weston we got a dumping in 2018! Most snow I have seen in the seven years I've been down here. 

 

 

[Thundery wintry showers]

8 hours ago, Sunny76 said:

1979 is the year where some suggest warming began, although more subtlety. The winter of 1979-80 was much milder and almost snowless for many parts of England. 

Examining the global temperature stats from the main centres, it would appear that 1979 was when global warming got underway after the slight drop in global temperature between the 1940s and 1970s.  1980 and 1981 were both very close to being the warmest on record at the time, and from then onwards it kept warming up. 

I don't think Britain's climate showed any evidence of warming until around 1988-89.  Winter 1979/80 was indeed fairly mild but there were several very cold and snowy winters after that, notably 1981/82, 1984/85, 1985/86, also January 1984 in the north, and the exceptional easterly in January 1987.  There were also several cool summers during this period.  The shift to milder winters started with the winter of 1987/88, while the shift to warmer summers started in 1989.

I think we will run into cycles of cold winters again.  I remember Philip Eden remarking on a 22-23 year cycle of cold winters around 1895, 1917, 1940, 1963, 1986, and 2008-2013 was a bit delayed relative to the earlier recurring cycle but not by a lot.  If this cycle keeps up we might well run into some more cold winters around 2032-2035.  But as the global temperatures continue to rise, each batch of cold winters will typically be less cold and less snowy than the previous one.

 

Edited September 9, 2019 by Thundery wintry showers

[Sunny76]

6 hours ago, nn2013 said:

I'm in agreement with you. From memory (I am too young to remember the memorable mid 80s ones as I was born late 1984), 2009-10 is the best winter I have experienced. Even down here in Weston we got a dumping in 2018! Most snow I have seen in the seven years I've been down here. 

 

 

2009-2010 were classic years for snow

[snowhope]

But then Parts of North America witnessed periods of devastating Cold and Snowiness last year when the PV dropped in on them. Although unlikely if this happened to us we would still witness very harsh conditions.

Not so much when this might happen but IF this could happen given the location of the UK and the more typical setups we experience. It could happen but things as always have got to be correct for our little Island to get the cold on our doorstep.

 

[Methuselah]

4 minutes ago, snowhope said:

But then Parts of North America witnessed periods of devastating Cold and Snowiness last year when the PV dropped in on them. Although unlikely if this happened to us we would still witness very harsh conditions.

Not so much when this might happen but IF this could happen given the location of the UK and the more typical setups we experience. It could happen but things as always have got to be correct for our little Island to get the cold on our doorstep.

Which is, IMO, precisely why the ill-fated TMW Theory was such a crock...Cold spells can and will continue to occur!

[damianslaw]

6 hours ago, Ed Stone said:

Which is, IMO, precisely why the ill-fated TMW Theory was such a crock...Cold spells can and will continue to occur!

Whilst recent winters have indeed brought little in the way of cold, we have had some notable shots of cold, every bit as cold as what you could have expected yesteryear - most notable of all late Nov-late Dec 2010. March 2013 was also jolly cold, and we had that very shorlived albeit bitter cold tail end of Feb and early March 2018.

I take some comfort from these spells, as well as winter 09/10 overall, for raising potential for further notable cold at times in winters to come - much more so than I did during the period 1997-2008 when we had very little if any notable cold at all..

[Sunny76]

32 minutes ago, damianslaw said:

Whilst recent winters have indeed brought little in the way of cold, we have had some notable shots of cold, every bit as cold as what you could have expected yesteryear - most notable of all late Nov-late Dec 2010. March 2013 was also jolly cold, and we had that very shorlived albeit bitter cold tail end of Feb and early March 2018.

I take some comfort from these spells, as well as winter 09/10 overall, for raising potential for further notable cold at times in winters to come - much more so than I did during the period 1997-2008 when we had very little if any notable cold at all..

Even that period has chilly spells. December 2000, March 2001 was cold, also January 2003, parts of January 2004 and Feb/March 2005. Nothing compared to the 80s or late 2000s winters, but still chilly spells of weather. 

The only winter where mild weather seemed so rampant was 2006/07.

[damianslaw]

11 minutes ago, Sunny76 said:

Even that period has chilly spells. December 2000, March 2001 was cold, also January 2003, parts of January 2004 and Feb/March 2005. Nothing compared to the 80s or late 2000s winters, but still chilly spells of weather. 

The only winter where mild weather seemed so rampant was 2006/07.

Yes your right there were some colder spells, but not to the same depth as the coldest spells in winters since 2008/2009. The spells you mentioned I would describe as preety average standard cold winter spells, unlike mid Dec 09 - mid Jan 10, late Nov - late Dec 10, March 13 and the five day period 26 Feb - 2 Mar 18 which I would put in the more extreme end of winter cold on a par with some of those very cold wintry spells pre winter 87/88.

I'd also put winter 97/98, and 07/08 in the same category as 06/07 for rampant mild.

Edited September 9, 2019 by damianslaw

[Sunny76]

17 minutes ago, damianslaw said:

Yes your right there were some colder spells, but not to the same depth as the coldest spells in winters since 2008/2009. The spells you mentioned I would describe as preety average standard cold winter spells, unlike mid Dec 09 - mid Jan 10, late Nov - late Dec 10, March 13 and the five day period 26 Feb - 2 Mar 18 which I would put in the more extreme end of winter cold on a par with some of those very cold wintry spells pre winter 87/88.

I'd also put winter 97/98, and 07/08 in the same category as 06/07 for rampant mild.

Yeah I agree about those mild winters. Also 94/95 was a very mild one, although Feb 95 was chilly.

feb 2009 was also a very cold snowy spell. 

[Sunny76]

In some ways Feb 09 gets forgotten now, as that was the first major snowfall for many years, but was soon bettered by December 2009/10(although less snow fell in London that winter, but we still had a covering), and December 2010 which was even more severe. In fact I think December 2010 was very much just as cold as January 87 or Christmas 1981, and it certainly felt like it. 

[hillbilly]

55 minutes ago, Sunny76 said:

Even that period has chilly spells. December 2000, March 2001 was cold, also January 2003, parts of January 2004 and Feb/March 2005. Nothing compared to the 80s or late 2000s winters, but still chilly spells of weather. 

The only winter where mild weather seemed so rampant was 2006/07.

Often a forgotten winter is that of 2005/2006[extended winter] which during those mild winters gave just 3 airfrosts less than 2009/2010 .I remember fields being yellow in March/April as in a severe winter,that didn't even happen in 2010 and had to wait until 2013 to see that again.

[philglossop]

In simple terms, yes we will.

There's little denying that post March 2013 we went into a warmer period, but remember that following the dreadful floodings from December 2013-March 2014, we were all talking in terms of dreadful flooding becoming almost a regular thing. Luckily, it's not happened- although I'd say the spell January to April 2018 came mightily close down here.

I'd say that we'll see statistically a good "cold" winter, as likely as a very very cold one. As a wise man once said -"The old roulette wheel of life must throw up the odd Zero".

December 2010, was my lifetime on a par with the deep cold of January 1987 and February 1986 which was a very blocked cold Easterly period. So we could have a wait, or it could happen this year.

Could we cope with a 1963 or 1947 would be my only concern given the circumstances at the moment!

[cheeky_monkey]

6 minutes ago, philglossop said:

 

Could we cope with a 1963 or 1947 would be my only concern given the circumstances at the moment!

what circumstances are those?