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South East and East Anglia Weather Discussion Sept 2019 onwards


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5 minutes ago, Surrey said:

Okay peeps red alerts don't think so.. Even in the 100mph winter storms further north reds are never issued.. 

There is nothing unusual about this storm its a winter storm in the depths of winter.. Who would have guessed it?! 

What is a little diffrent is the size of the wind field associated with the storm and to some degree the strength of the winds over such a large area.. 60mph winds are not uncommon in winter even inland.. 70mph + is a little more of a rare beast but still can and does happen.. 

We are still over 24 hours away from this event and while we are now entering model lock down (what I like to call the final hours where models tend to agree) some details will change.. 

It looks like 70mph maybe achieved somewhere inland but I think you will need some height to get around that speed... 

Let's see what the overnight runs do and make some proper guesses tomorrow 

 

I’ve been keeping an eye on weather around 23 years and don’t think I’ve ever seen the entire country under a yellow warning for wind..

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Dunstable got a good snow cover but melted in the afternoon. Hills around the area did ok. I drove to the highest point in the Chiltrens to have my snow fix. Some photos from Wendover Wood this mornin

Nice bit of snow here this morning, so that means it won’t go down as one of the worst winters I can remember but only by the skin of its teeth . Photos below ?

Shower cloud lit up nicely by the low sun earlier this evening north of Heathrow where I work.

Posted Images

40 minutes ago, DonnaThw said:

I’m slightly worried I live right on the SE coast where there is going to be strong winds and spring tides ?

It’s going to be very interesting to walk across the seafront...

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18 minutes ago, Surrey said:

There is nothing unusual about this storm its a winter storm in the depths of winter.. Who would have guessed it?! 

What is a little diffrent is the size of the wind field associated with the storm and to some degree the strength of the winds over such a large area.. 60mph winds are not uncommon in winter even inland.. 70mph + is a little more of a rare beast but still can and does happen.. 

 

Completely disagree

60mph+ gusts are not common during annual winter storms for London & the SE. Most gusts here reach the upper 40s, perhaps 50s in a few spots. Current forecast is not for a usual storm.

Edited by Stabilo19
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1 hour ago, abbie123 said:

I’ve been keeping an eye on weather around 23 years and don’t think I’ve ever seen the entire country under a yellow warning for wind..

They haven’t had the current colour coded warning system for 23 years though !

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Perhaps we could have a South Coast Storm Party meetup ?.

Only joking of course but I might be tempted to take the short drive to my favoured viewing spots at Rock a Nore in Hastings and just a mile or so away on the seafront in St Leonards on Sea. Checking my camera batteries in the morning to hopefully get some good photos.

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Well GFS seems to be increasing the forecast wind speeds rather than decreasing them nearer the event - opposite of what is usually the case.  Norwich now peaking at 41mph gusting 75mph at 3pm - about the time the cold front moves through. Pretty unusual windspeeds for this part of the world. It will be interesting to see what the sustained speeds actually are. I find anything over 40mph and you start to hear that 'roar' which is synonymous of damaging storms.

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Met Office video forecast going for 55-65 mph gusts (70-80 coasts). Very windy but hardly the scale which some on here are talking about. You’d think the apocalypse was coming!

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Morning all,

Up early to have Breakfast with "Septic" (Wife, Colette), before she started a 12 Hour shift, in Chislehurst.

TIMBO Day (Mon.10th), continues to catch the eye:

                    GFS 00z (t66)                                                     GFS 00z PPN (t66)           image.thumb.png.fc573e7894abf1905c2d3268c4115eaa.png               image.thumb.png.69552c6ddc974f15d7f0950402c715a6.png

The Americans have a Trough running towards the S.E., on the very strong Westerly flow, post Ciara.

Showers, probably Wintry in nature, close to our Region. 

                 UKMO 00z (t48)                                                                      

image.thumb.png.2766accb371f213071ac7036dad29af2.png             

 Don't fancy mine and STEVE M.'s chances for a bit of natural confetti, on Valentine's Day. Although ECM says maybe but very much, out on it's own.              

                UKMO 00z (t144)                                                      ECM (t144)

 image.thumb.png.7672589d6c01dc816ad6c4f48def9720.png            image.thumb.png.9627208788483cc6426ec3de0499d960.png

A Day later, and it looks like a forlorn hope for SEPTIC PEG, on our Wedding Anniversary.

NO repeat of the Snow Grains we saw on 15th Feb, 2010!! :nonono: 
                   ECM 00z (t168)                

image.thumb.png.bba02bd7174836f33234d19f632dcd10.png

A similar story for LOTTIEKENT, a not very inspiring 16th Feb, snow-wise. With those kind of Synoptics, she's very unlikely to reward those Members who gave her the "Virtual" Wager support, in the Betting side of the Competition.

                  ECM 00z (t192)

image.thumb.png.3cb84c72d9f0a85f03c3ac49e664a00b.png

Regards,

Tom.  :hi: ❄️

Edited by TomSE12
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From a veteran of the 1987 campaign, a sobering reminder that back then we had 70mph winds gusting to 100mph. Tomorrow looks bad but not THAT bad. 

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33 minutes ago, Wivenswold said:

From a veteran of the 1987 campaign, a sobering reminder that back then we had 70mph winds gusting to 100mph. Tomorrow looks bad but not THAT bad. 

Agreed but 70 miles an hour during the daylight hours is damn dangerous. The 100 miles per hour was at 2-4am in the morning and yes I am also a veteran of the great storm. If the wind is as strong as they say then that will be a significant storm. 

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Amazes me how Whitstable is still on a yellow warning yet just down the road in Canterbury it’s amber how can the winds be so different within a few miles ? 

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1 minute ago, Karmamel said:

Amazes me how Whitstable is still on a yellow warning yet just down the road in Canterbury it’s amber how can the winds be so different within a few miles ? 

Got to draw a line somewhere. Educated guess?

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23 minutes ago, Jimmyh said:

Agreed but 70 miles an hour during the daylight hours is damn dangerous. The 100 miles per hour was at 2-4am in the morning and yes I am also a veteran of the great storm. If the wind is as strong as they say then that will be a significant storm. 

In the 87 storm damaged caused was quite variable. Some areas completely trashed and others less so. 

Remember well looking out our bedroom window to see mature trees falling everywhere. We had no electricity  for nearly a week.  Took a car battery into work and charged it up so we could watch TV for a couple of hours each night on a little portable. Fortunately we did not rely on electricity for heating.  

No mobile phone nor did the landline work. So there was one benefit.

Everyone itching to go all electric to save the planet? Always nice in these circumstances to have Plan B if you can.

AMBER WARNING FOR MOST OF england just announced

Edited by Snipper
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Amber warning removed for us on the coast...

And now back covering a much wider area.

Edited by Icebox
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1 hour ago, Djdazzle said:

Met Office video forecast going for 55-65 mph gusts (70-80 coasts). Very windy but hardly the scale which some on here are talking about. You’d think the apocalypse was coming!

65 mph gusts will definitely cause damage in inland areas. Avg windy winter days here are 40-50 mph so we are well above "normal" territory.

Plus some models have been suggesting 70-75 mph inland - so it's the met office that have been downplaying it, rather than people here over exaggerating. 

Edited by Stabilo19
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