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South East and East Anglia Weather Discussion Sept 2019 onwards


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Dunstable got a good snow cover but melted in the afternoon. Hills around the area did ok. I drove to the highest point in the Chiltrens to have my snow fix. Some photos from Wendover Wood this mornin

Nice bit of snow here this morning, so that means it won’t go down as one of the worst winters I can remember but only by the skin of its teeth . Photos below ?

Shower cloud lit up nicely by the low sun earlier this evening north of Heathrow where I work.

Posted Images

Met office automated forecast is already going for 66mph wind gusts in Bexhill!! That often gets slightly higher near the time, especially when the hourly intervals begin. This could be very interesting indeed! A day for the seafront methinks. Also, it’s a super moon this weekend, apparently... Aptly known as the ‘storm moon’. All the signs are aligning!

6285228A-FFCA-4A83-8CE7-6AE0DAE8E413.jpeg

Edited by LightningLover
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There was some very nice, thick fog this morning. One of the very few pleasing winter mornings I've woken up to so far this winter.

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Well after a frost this morning(got down to -0.1 here) it really has been a lovely day to work outside in with some lovely sunshine especially around the middle part of the day.In my line of work I have seen bees buzzing around since the 7th January and the daffs have been out for over a week in some South Facing gardens in this area,a few weeks ahead of schedule.Looks like tomorrow and Friday look pleasant enough before a wet and windy weekend and next week could be unsettled with average temperatures in the SE.Some of the LR output shows springlike conditions possibly developing late next week which would be like last February when we had those crazy temperatures of 19 degrees-That is still a way off but the way that High pressure has sat over a Southern and Central Europe a little nudge further north and those temperatures could become a possibility!!

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 Morning all,

Having had the benefit of another 10 Days worth of Model Runs to digest, I thought I would return to my Betting for the Netweather S.E.Region Settling Snow Cup, and update the List, and the Betting. 

Unfortunately, we've lost both KATRINE BASSO and SNOWRYE. They both suffered a soft, early BRR..EXIT after their bold and "early", predictions.

                   NETWEATHER S.E.REGION SETTLING SNOW CUP  

                                BETTING ODDS FOR WINNING PREDICTION 

                                                    (OUTRIGHT WINNER)

                         ENTRANT           DATE of PREDICTION            ODDS

                     Katrine Basso                   31st  JAN                        50/1 X LOST.

                     Snowrye                             1st   FEB                        50/1 X LOST.

But with nothing especially Wintry showing up, in the Forecast Models, they may not be on their own for long.

The next few Entrants to walk the February "gangplank", are as follows:

TIMBO (10th), S.MURR (14th), TOMSE12 (14th), DANIEL (15th), SEPTIC PEG (Guest) (15th) and LOTTIEKENT (16th).

**NB** SEPTIC PEG, is my guest and Wife, Colette.

BLUE = North Thames Group.

RED   = South Thames Group.

After I've digested my Breakfast and the 00z Model Runs, I'll have a "stab" at updating the Betting Odds of those Entrants still remaining in the Competition.

Regards,

Tom.   :hi:❄️ 

                  

Edited by TomSE12
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Before any updated Odds, just wanted to look at how the "Big 3", view "Timbo Day" (10th Feb).

                    UKMO (t96)                                             ECM (t96)                                                 

image.thumb.png.c837ecedd3d1f71a3a4c810d24b9468f.png image.thumb.png.df27ca1404121e2e5a639053aad51987.png 

                      GFS (t96)

image.thumb.png.1a16bc9049b9b8ea45f7dc3e741f4f91.png

All "singing from the same hymn sheet", there then and looking pretty nasty.

Below, the GFS ppn chart for 19.00 Hours (18.00 U.K. time)

image.thumb.png.ebed5a8314b0568dc0c80d0a8c03dc5b.png

Should any Showers get blown Eastwards towards our Region, I would've thought our highest ground could get a "dusting" but by no means, certain!! So, there's still hopeTimbo.

But as snowray stated, when he started the Competition back on January 22nd, a "dusting" is all we need to deliver a Result.

Quote - snowray: 

"Hey anyone fancy a competition?

When will it snow next and settle in our SE region? Even a dusting counts but not sleet or hail, must be snow."

Further out in "Fantasy Land" at t240 (Day 10), this caught my eye, from the 00z ECM Run:

image.thumb.png.3128a07647457ffbfe30074c7ffc9171.png

A possible Scandinavian High forming, or yet another ECM Goose Chase.

But the Americans (GFS), having none of it and t240 remains, as flat as a Pancake!!

image.thumb.png.74a5603d8d1b82777df94baef78f98e5.png

Regards,

Tom.   :hi: ❄️

Edited by TomSE12
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What a gorgeous morning. Everywhere white with a good frost and now clear blue skies. Got down to -1C imby. Lovely satellite image at 09.10 with much of the UK clear and snow visible on the Alps, Pyrenees and spine of Italy.

82619877_Satellite06Feb09_10.thumb.jpg.80719e3270c7b7ce7037ad4d38c3c5a6.jpg

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5 hours ago, TomSE12 said:

 Morning all,

Having had the benefit of another 10 Days worth of Model Runs to digest, I thought I would return to my Betting for the Netweather S.E.Region Settling Snow Cup, and update the List, and the Betting. 

Unfortunately, we've lost both KATRINE BASSO and SNOWRYE. They both suffered a soft, early BRR..EXIT after their bold and "early", predictions.

                   NETWEATHER S.E.REGION SETTLING SNOW CUP  

                                BETTING ODDS FOR WINNING PREDICTION 

                                                    (OUTRIGHT WINNER)

                         ENTRANT           DATE of PREDICTION            ODDS

                     Katrine Basso                   31st  JAN                        50/1 X LOST.

                     Snowrye                             1st   FEB                        50/1 X LOST.

But with nothing especially Wintry showing up, in the Forecast Models, they may not be on their own for long.

The next few Entrants to walk the February "gangplank", are as follows:

TIMBO (10th), S.MURR (14th), TOMSE12 (14th), DANIEL (15th), SEPTIC PEG (Guest) (15th) and LOTTIEKENT (16th).

**NB** SEPTIC PEG, is my guest and Wife, Colette.

BLUE = North Thames Group.

RED   = South Thames Group.

After I've digested my Breakfast and the 00z Model Runs, I'll have a "stab" at updating the Betting Odds of those Entrants still remaining in the Competition.

Regards,

Tom.   :hi:❄️ 

                  

Hi Tom

I think you will find that snowrye's entry is for the 1st of March not 1st Feb. Timbo could indeed still win if we get a small covering of snow next week, maybe around the Chilterns?

Regards

Ray

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-2c this morning. Praise be a miracle. Needless to say the cold came with clear blues sky and sun, so the arrival of mild and wet will yet again make its ugly face this weekend. 

This was typical of tens of winters I had growing up, then out of no where there was snow, so i'm not giving up total hope, although 20 odd years for any thing decent is a blimin' long wait.

Edited by Dami
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Amazing how I've noted so many people in this region (generally inland) have been recording air frosts even somebody down at Worthing has been recording them but absolutely zilch here this winter! (never happened before) 2.3c with a touch of ground frost here over night but now a beautiful clear sunny day which we haven't seen enough of thanks to the darn Atlantic...

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Lovely day reminds me of last year but nowhere near as warm, however it does feel warmer in that sun with maximum 9.1, following a cold night 0.3 minimum not quite managing an air frost should tonight I feel. ? 

3733E16A-0ED5-4D2F-96D9-3096400EA1BE.thumb.jpeg.ffd7de04a695a432d145291c13853c7a.jpeg75333B12-A4EC-4C48-A608-CFAD55230DE5.thumb.jpeg.5cfa672ed56bd2b10e6d9a86e47bdda3.jpeg35206F03-F3D8-43DF-9F8B-C912D5DC19EE.thumb.jpeg.0627069cf1e43c6499c831e5d6ad2f7b.jpeg30081C49-3B8D-44CB-9871-4D2331F47D48.thumb.jpeg.3e6aa120e27b532e9543f6c31e7644f4.jpeg1A61FF35-E310-4F17-8E3A-A09568673D49.thumb.jpeg.a91c81001da4e1382a2d88fe17d3e090.jpeg17A01690-F8DD-4196-A2D7-FDF60B24A3C0.thumb.jpeg.21b47145c72d1a5393ea1a38b50c608a.jpeg21BE7475-0299-4CA3-9463-D7CE023B6487.thumb.jpeg.88cfd0c86e6abb3265749f196ee18f9f.jpeg75E250D1-A1AA-4848-8673-7046B34AF43C.thumb.jpeg.f6a895ae814b38da6298470eff760e36.jpeg

25D167CB-5811-4938-AB0F-DB716424E970.jpeg

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17 minutes ago, Daniel* said:

Lovely day reminds me of last year but nowhere near as warm, however it does feel warmer in that sun with maximum 9.1, following a cold night 0.3 minimum not quite managing an air frost should tonight I feel. ? 

3733E16A-0ED5-4D2F-96D9-3096400EA1BE.thumb.jpeg.ffd7de04a695a432d145291c13853c7a.jpeg75333B12-A4EC-4C48-A608-CFAD55230DE5.thumb.jpeg.5cfa672ed56bd2b10e6d9a86e47bdda3.jpeg35206F03-F3D8-43DF-9F8B-C912D5DC19EE.thumb.jpeg.0627069cf1e43c6499c831e5d6ad2f7b.jpeg30081C49-3B8D-44CB-9871-4D2331F47D48.thumb.jpeg.3e6aa120e27b532e9543f6c31e7644f4.jpeg1A61FF35-E310-4F17-8E3A-A09568673D49.thumb.jpeg.a91c81001da4e1382a2d88fe17d3e090.jpeg17A01690-F8DD-4196-A2D7-FDF60B24A3C0.thumb.jpeg.21b47145c72d1a5393ea1a38b50c608a.jpeg21BE7475-0299-4CA3-9463-D7CE023B6487.thumb.jpeg.88cfd0c86e6abb3265749f196ee18f9f.jpeg75E250D1-A1AA-4848-8673-7046B34AF43C.thumb.jpeg.f6a895ae814b38da6298470eff760e36.jpeg

25D167CB-5811-4938-AB0F-DB716424E970.jpeg

Great shot of Canary Wharf !

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11 hours ago, TomSE12 said:

 Morning all,

Having had the benefit of another 10 Days worth of Model Runs to digest, I thought I would return to my Betting for the Netweather S.E.Region Settling Snow Cup, and update the List, and the Betting. 

Unfortunately, we've lost both KATRINE BASSO and SNOWRYE. They both suffered a soft, early BRR..EXIT after their bold and "early", predictions.

                   NETWEATHER S.E.REGION SETTLING SNOW CUP  

                                BETTING ODDS FOR WINNING PREDICTION 

                                                    (OUTRIGHT WINNER)

                         ENTRANT           DATE of PREDICTION            ODDS

                     Katrine Basso                   31st  JAN                        50/1 X LOST.

                     Snowrye                             1st   FEB                        50/1 X LOST.

But with nothing especially Wintry showing up, in the Forecast Models, they may not be on their own for long.

The next few Entrants to walk the February "gangplank", are as follows:

TIMBO (10th), S.MURR (14th), TOMSE12 (14th), DANIEL (15th), SEPTIC PEG (Guest) (15th) and LOTTIEKENT (16th).

**NB** SEPTIC PEG, is my guest and Wife, Colette.

BLUE = North Thames Group.

RED   = South Thames Group.

After I've digested my Breakfast and the 00z Model Runs, I'll have a "stab" at updating the Betting Odds of those Entrants still remaining in the Competition.

Regards,

Tom.   :hi:❄️ 

                  

Hi Tom 

 I chose the date of the 20 something either 22nd or 27th I think,  was I supposed to do anything else after we have you that date to be added to the group??

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What a glorious Day it's been Today.

Had a thick Jumper on, under my Jacket but would've got by with something thinner.

Myself and the Wife, took a Bus over to Chislehurst from Lee.

When I experienced my Haemorrhagic Stroke in Sept.2015, myself and my Wife were separated and I was living with my children, in Chislehurst and on the Books of a G.P. Practice, there.

Fortunately, we've got our relationship back on track now and Colette has been "there" for me, at every stage of my recovery.

After I finally came out of Hospital in February 2016, the Practice Manager kindly agreed to keep me on their Books, even though I now live well outside of their area. It does mean a trip over to Chislehurst, every couple of Months, to renew a Prescription. It's a very straightforward journey though, and only entails one Bus.

Those of you that know Chislehurst, it's in the High Street, near the Pond and Chislehurst Common.

Whilst we were over there, myself and Colette had a lovely lunch at a Café, attached to a Gift Shop, called Wrattens.

Some lovely toasted Sandwiches were devoured and washed down with a Cappuccino.

Then on to Sainsburys and it was while I was sitting there at Lunchtime that I read snowray's Post, about my error with Snowrye's prediction.

I must admit when I was updating the List of Entrants this Morning, I couldn't remember Snowrye having such an early prediction. So while Colette was shopping (think she spends half her time in Sainsburys), I went back over all the prediction Posts. There it was, Snowrye 1st March and NOT 1st Feb. 

My profound apologies Snowrye, my error has now been corrected, a touch of Competition Fatigue Syndrome I fear.

We then caught the Bus home again and with mostly Gin clear skies continuing, had a lovely view of Canary Wharf from the top of White Horse Hill, as it drops down towards Mottingham.

Just about to have my Dinner and once I've looked at 12z Model Runs, will Post up some revised Betting Odds for those remaining Entrants (including the reinstated Snowrye).

Sorry Katrine, you're now on your lonesome but as I stated this Morning, that probably won't be for much longer.

Regards,

Tom.  :hi:

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Im not that bothered about the prospects for snow at the moment. Storm Ciara is the main feature in the coming days and Sunday may deliver the worst storm of the winter so far in our region. 

This is what xc weather are predicting for Hastings. 

 

Screenshot_20200206_184210.jpg

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23 minutes ago, SenlacJack said:

Im not that bothered about the prospects for snow at the moment. Storm Ciara is the main feature in the coming days and Sunday may deliver the worst storm of the winter so far in our region. 

This is what xc weather are predicting for Hastings. 

 

Screenshot_20200206_184210.jpg

Corrrrrr!!! 75mph wind gusts! Wouldn’t that make it the strongest winds around this area for a couple of years?

Edited by LightningLover
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Quote - Donna Thw

"Hi Tom 

 I chose the date of the 20 something either 22nd or 27th I think,  was I supposed to do anything else after we have you that date to be added to the group??"

This is what you Posted on 22nd Jan, Donna.

"Oh sorry thought it was today. I will go with the 27th Feb."

No, you don't have to do anything else Donna, just sit and suffer.

Apologies but I'm going to have to postpone the idea of Posting up revised Betting Odds for the Competition, until Tomorrow Morning. I missed my Afternoon nap Today, and I'm now feeling very tired. Plus I will be getting up at 5.15, Tomorrow Morning and having Breakfast with my Wife, before she sets off for early Morning shift at 6.15.

I will revise those Betting Odds then, and Post them up, shortly after.

Regards,

Tom.  :hi:❄️

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12 minutes ago, Stabilo19 said:

12 hours of 60mph+ winds isn't an annual event for this region. Warnings need upgrading asap! ?

Indeed, and it’s not as if the peak winds will be around for an hour or so, which is usually the case; I imagine the peak will span across a 2-3 hour period here (70+mph). Might need an amber!

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2 hours ago, LightningLover said:

Corrrrrr!!! 75mph wind gusts! Wouldn’t that make it the strongest winds around this area for a couple of years?

If those predicted wind gusts are realised then they will exceed anything i've witnessed since living here in the last 5 years. Prior to moving here permanently I was a regular visitor for 5 or so years before that and whilst during that time I've witnessed some impressive winter storms, this one may well be the most severe in terms of wind speeds and gusts if the forecasts pan out.

 

 

 

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Actually getting a bit worried, have to travel 20 miles Sunday afternoon to take granddaughter to a show she is in, they apparently won't be cancelling, I seem to be the only one worrying about it, perhaps a little knowledge is a bad thing.

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