South East and East Anglia Weather Discussion Sept 2019 onwards

Darkcloud · January 29, 2020

40 minutes ago, Dami said:

Turning milder. yesterday, although I know what you lot will say, I saw a 76% chance of snow for my area a few days down the line. It gave me HOPE!

Now as expected it has gone back to zero percent and a it's getting 'milder'

Gah.

Turner milder, what a depressing thing to see mid -winter.

Yep, I nearly cried when I looked at the 18z last night. I give up on this winter, it's utter $####! It's usually only the chase and excitement of snowy synoptics that keeps me going through the worst three months of the year but haven't even had that this year.

Oh well, only about 10/11 months to go til we can start the search again!

Reefseeker · January 29, 2020

1 hour ago, Darkcloud said:

Yep, I nearly cried when I looked at the 18z last night. I give up on this winter, it's utter $####! It's usually only the chase and excitement of snowy synoptics that keeps me going through the worst three months of the year but haven't even had that this year.

Oh well, only about 10/11 months to go til we can start the search again!

I kid you not, I've already started counting down the weeks/months until the end of September when winter can 'start' again! My son and I every year promise ourselves we won't 'wish the year away' waiting for winter when we know it generally brings disappointment. He was 9 for the 2009 Thames Streamer in the SW London/east Surrey area and has such fond memories, followed fairly quickly by the 2010 snowfalls. We've barely had decent snowfall since and he is still waiting! (I should point out he has special needs, in case it sounds odd a 20 year old is still waiting for snow with his mum!)

As with @LightningLover, we experienced some sleet/graupel yesterday driving down the M3 somewhere in Surrey probably, when the temperature dropped to 4 degrees. Ah well, little crumbs.... On the bright side, Sandbanks beach was stunning this morning with clear blue skies and sunshine; it clouded over as we headed back up the M3 towards the London area.

TROY · January 29, 2020

It has been a smashing, dare i say early Springlike day here near Eastbourne. Sunshine no wind at all. And temps up to a dizzy 10c thats 50F. in old money. This has been a fantastic January.

Tom Quintavalle · January 29, 2020

The Clock is ticking and just 3 HOURS left, before the Entry Deadline closes.

Just a quick reminder to those Members still looking to have a "Virtual" Wager on the S.E.Region Snow Settling Cup.

My "Virtual" Bookmaker's Satchel is open until 9 PM tonight.

See Format, contained in my Post, Yesterday Evening.

Regards,

Tom.

snowray · January 29, 2020

Here we go, more runs required but time is running out so here is the result of the Erith jury:

Cat1 Outright winner........snowray 22nd Feb £2.50 ew

Cat2 North Thames.........snowQueenOne 24th Feb £2.50 ew

Cat3 South Thames........snowray 22nd Feb £2.50 ew

Might as well bet on myself as any other date the way the models are looking right now.

Dami · January 29, 2020

Quite windy and cool for 7C. Poor Bubs is very poorly and Hubs has taken her to urgent care by taxi :(. Can't get our car out due to the inconsiderate parking of someone's pickup, so I am not in the best of moods.

Edited January 29, 2020 by Dami

Tom Quintavalle · January 29, 2020

10 minutes ago, snowray said:

Here we go, more runs required but time is running out so here is the result of the Erith jury:

Cat1 Outright winner........snowray 22nd Feb £2.50 ew

Cat2 North Thames.........snowQueenOne 24th Feb £2.50 ew

Cat3 South Thames........snowray 22nd Feb £2.50 ew

Might as well bet on myself as any other date the way the models are looking right now.

Thanks snowray, that's brilliant. I'll get those entered up into my Competition Folder.

But Snow Queen One (Maidstone), is a Member of the South Thames Group, so I'll need a Selection from the North Thames Group. I assume you'll go with yourself, for your South Thames Selection? I'll pop up those Betting Odds for the North Thames Group, again:

WINNING PREDICTION TO BE MADE BY NORTH THAMES MEMBER

ENTRANT DATE ODDS

Team Squirrel 19th FEB 4/1

Timbo 10th FEB 4/1

Lassie23 29th FEB 8/1

Pinball Wizard 29th FEB 8/1

Katrine Basso 31st JAN 33/1

Froze Were The Days 9th MAR 50/1

Claret049 23rd MAR 80/1

General Custer 29th NOV 500/1

ALL QUOTED. PLACE TERMS: 1/4 ODDS.

Apologies s.r, if I didnt make my Format clear enough.

If it's o.k. with you s.r., the Lee Jury has decided to extend the Entry Deadline but as you've done with the Main Competition, at the expense of a Penalty Forfeit.

I think we've given Members enough time to register their Date predictions and "Virtual" Wagers, on those Date predictions.

I suggest, the following Penalty:

A Late Entry between Midnight Tonight and 9 PM Tomorrow, will result in your "Virtual" Returns being reduced, by £2

The Entry Deadline will then close for good.

I have to be fair to KATRINE BASSO, whose prediction is for Friday (31st JAN).

In a shortb while (before 9 PM), I'll Post up the "Virtual" Wagers of Septic Peg (my Wife, Colette).

Regards,

Tom.

Froze were the Days · January 29, 2020

8 minutes ago, TomSE12 said:

Katrine Basso 31st JAN 33/1

Froze Were The Days 9th MAR 50/1

Really Tom?...Katrine is shorter odds than myself and the 31st is Friday and absolutely no chance of the white stuff on that date (13c predicted!!...I'll use the double exclamation mark to illustrate my point like someone on the mod thread), personally feel with the way the models are going and the continuation of the 'watered' down blink of the eye cold snap late next week and then the old proverbial high setting up to our south it could be more of the same of what we've already experienced this month.

Edited January 29, 2020 by Froze were the Days

Tom Quintavalle · January 29, 2020

@ Dami. - Hope things work out well for your Hubby!!

Below, are the "Virtual" Wagers of SEPTIC PEG (My Wife, Colette):

CATEGORY 1 - OUTRIGHT WINNER - Lottiekent (16th FEB). £2.50 EACH WAY @ 10/1.

CATEGORY 2 - NORTH THAMES WINNER - Team Squirrel (19th FEB) £5 WIN @ 4/1.

CATEGORY 3 - SOUTH THAMES WINNER - Lottiekent (16th FEB). £2.50 EACH WAY @ 8/1.

"Virtual" Prize Option - 2 - An expenses paid "Virtual" Week in Lappland, during Christmas 2020.

I'm hoping "Septic" can squeeze me into her suitcase, if she wins!!

Regards,

Tom.

Dami · January 29, 2020

@TomSE12 Thanks Tom. I'm quite worried atm so fingers crossed Bubs is ok and it's just a throat infection.

Tom Quintavalle · January 29, 2020

19 minutes ago, Froze were the Days said:

Really Tom?...Katrine is shorter odds than myself and the 31st is Friday and absolutely no chance of the white stuff on that date (13c predicted!!...I'll use the double exclamation mark to illustrate my point like someone on the mod thread), personally feel with the way the models are going and the continuation of the 'watered' down blink of the eye cold snap late next week and then the old proverbial high setting up to our south it could be more of the same of what we've already experienced this month.

Hi F.w.t.D,

Yes, I know. Poor Katrine doesn't have a "Snowball's chance in Hell", of landing that prediction. But it wouldn't be fair for me to change the Odds now, after others have placed their Wagers.

TBH, I wouldn't have a penny of your money, at a 1,000/1, now!!

I'm not expecting anymore "Virtual" Wagers now but I expect any Members that place them at this late stage, will be avoiding Jan.31st, like the Plague.

Regards,

Tom.

snowray · January 29, 2020

1 hour ago, TomSE12 said:

Thanks snowray, that's brilliant. I'll get those entered up into my Competition Folder.

But Snow Queen One (Maidstone), is a Member of the South Thames Group, so I'll need a Selection from the North Thames Group. I assume you'll go with yourself, for your South Thames Selection? I'll pop up those Betting Odds for the North Thames Group, again:

WINNING PREDICTION TO BE MADE BY NORTH THAMES MEMBER

ENTRANT    DATE ODDS

Team Squirrel 19th FEB    4/1

Timbo    10th FEB    4/1

Lassie23    29th FEB 8/1

Pinball Wizard 29th FEB 8/1

Katrine Basso 31st JAN 33/1

Froze Were The Days 9th MAR    50/1

Claret049 23rd MAR    80/1

General Custer 29th NOV    500/1

                                  ALL QUOTED. PLACE TERMS: 1/4 ODDS.

Apologies s.r, if I didnt make my Format clear enough.

If it's o.k. with you s.r., the Lee Jury has decided to extend the Entry Deadline but as you've done with the Main Competition, at the expense of a Penalty Forfeit.

I think we've given Members enough time to register their Date predictions and "Virtual" Wagers, on those Date predictions.

I suggest, the following Penalty:

A Late Entry between Midnight Tonight and 9 PM Tomorrow, will result in your "Virtual" Returns being reduced, by £2

The Entry Deadline will then close for good.

I have to be fair to KATRINE BASSO, whose prediction is for Friday (31st JAN).

In a shortb while (before 9 PM), I'll Post up the "Virtual" Wagers of Septic Peg (my Wife, Colette).

Regards,

Tom.

Oh, sorry about that Tom, Can I go for Claret049 instead please.

In fact a nice glass of vintage 1959 would go down well.

Edited January 29, 2020 by snowray

SenlacJack · January 30, 2020

Given my location here in St Leonards on Sea, just 2 miles inland I don't rate my chances much.

Then I started looking back through some of my old photos and late February 2018 came up trumps so my hopes are raised. I'll try and post some evidence later.

SenlacJack · January 30, 2020

Fingers crossed, hopefully some of my photos of the snow here in St Leonards on Sea, late February 2018.

Edited January 30, 2020 by SenlacJack
Adding more photos.

lottiekent · January 30, 2020

I missed the deadline (due to end of quarter craziness at work and cat has an op today) but I’ve not looked at the models at all this morning I promise!

CATEGORY 1 - OUTRIGHT WINNER - Timbo

CATEGORY 2 - NORTH THAMES WINNER - Timbo

CATEGORY 3 - SOUTH THAMES WINNER - Me

Tom Quintavalle · January 30, 2020

Morning all,

All the "Virtual" Wagers are in, on Entrants predictions and I will now Post up those Wagers. Remember if your Wager is a "Winner" and you manage to have some settling Snow at your location too on the same Date, "Honest Tom" Bookmakers will give you a Bonus of doubling the Odds, of your Wager. Below, are the "Virtual" Returns plus Bonus, for each of those Wagers. "Honest Tom" has also included your allocated "Virtual" Stake in your "Virtual" Returns, generous Bookie that I am!!

CATEGORY 1. OUTRIGHT WINNER

PUNTER SELECTION DATE STAKE "V"/R "V"/R (with Bonus)

Timbo Timbo @ 10/1 10th FEB £5 WIN £55.00 £105.00

**K/Weather** Lottiekent @ 10/1 16th FEB £5 WIN £55.00 **£80.00**

TomSE12 Steve Murr @ 10/1 14th FEB £2.50 E.W. £36.25 £58.75

John Stevens Sen' Jack @ 14/1 26th FEB £2.50 E.W. £51.25 £81.25

Septic Peg Lottiekent @ 10/1 16th FEB £2.50 E.W. £36.25 £58.75

KEY

Punter in Blue = North Thames Member.

Punter in Red = South Thames Member.

Punter in Black = Member outside Region.

Punter in Green = Guest.

"V"/R = "Virtual" Returns.

**N/B** - K/Weather. As K/Weather lives in E. Scotland and it's colder than S.E. England, I've introduced a bit of Climatology, into the Competition. Should he be correct with his predicted Wager and receive some settling Snow, on the same Date, his Bonus will be half of the Odds of his Wager, i.e - 15/1. Sorry Callum, I think that's fair.

In a short while, I will Post up the Wagers placed for Category 2 - North Thames Winner and Category 3 - South Thames Winner.

P.S. I have to go out with "Septic"in a short while, so will Post the above, later on Today.

Regards,

Tom.

Edited January 30, 2020 by TomSE12

lottiekent · January 30, 2020

1 minute ago, TomSE12 said:

Morning all,

All the "Virtual" Wagers are in, on Entrants predictions and I will now Post up those Wagers. Remember if your Wager is a "Winner" and you manage to have some settling Snow at your location too on the same Date, "Honest Tom" Bookmakers will give you a Bonus of doubling the Odds, of your Wager. Below, are the "Virtual" Returns plus Bonus, for each of those Wagers. "Honest Tom" has also included your allocated "Virtual" Stake in your "Virtual" Returns, generous Bookie that I am!!

CATEGORY 1. OUTRIGHT WINNER

   PUNTER    SELECTION    DATE    STAKE    "V"/R "V"/R (with Bonus)

   Timbo    Timbo @ 10/1 10th FEB £5 WIN    £55.00 £105.00

**K/Weather** Lottiekent @ 10/1 16th FEB £5 WIN    £55.00 **£80.00**

TomSE12    Steve Murr @ 10/1 14th FEB £2.50 E.W. £36.25    £58.75

John Stevens Sen' Jack @ 14/1    26th FEB £2.50 E.W. £51.25 £81.25

Septic Peg    Lottiekent @ 10/1 16th FEB £2.50 E.W. £36.25 £58.75

KEY

   Punter in Blue = North Thames Member.

   Punter in Red = South Thames Member.

Punter in Black = Member outside Region.

Punter in Green = Guest.

   "V"/R = "Virtual" Returns.

**N/B** - K/Weather. As K/Weather lives in E. Scotland and it's colder than S.E. England, I've introduced a bit of Climatology, into the Competition. Should he be correct with his predicted Wager and receive some settling Snow, on the same Date, his Bonus will be half of the Odds of his Wager, i.e - 15/1. Sorry Callum, I think that's fair.

In a short while, I will Post up the Wagers placed for Category 2 - North Thames Winner and Category 3 - South Thames Winner.

Regards,

Tom.

Morning Tom - did you see my late entry and excuses above?

Tom Quintavalle · January 30, 2020

Just now, lottiekent said:

I missed the deadline (due to end of quarter craziness at work and cat has an op today) but I’ve not looked at the models at all this morning I promise!

CATEGORY 1 - OUTRIGHT WINNER - Timbo

CATEGORY 2 - NORTH THAMES WINNER - Timbo

CATEGORY 3 - SOUTH THAMES WINNER - Me

Ok Lottie, as you've shrunk, "Honest Tom" won't impose the Penalty!!

Only just seen your "Virtual" Wagers Lottie. But do you want £5 WIN or £2.50 EACH WAY on them?

I wold advise the following:

Category 1 - E.W., Category 2 - WIN and Category 3 - E.W. But it's your choice, Lottie.

Regards,

Tom.

lottiekent · January 30, 2020

24 minutes ago, TomSE12 said:

Ok Lottie, as you've shrunk, "Honest Tom" won't impose the Penalty!!

Only just seen your "Virtual" Wagers Lottie. But do you want £5 WIN or £2.50 EACH WAY on them?

I wold advise the following:

Category 1 - E.W., Category 2 - WIN and Category 3 - E.W. But it's your choice, Lottie.

Regards,

Tom.

Thank you!

I will take your advice Tom as you’re the expert

Edited January 30, 2020 by lottiekent

snowray · January 30, 2020

Hi Tom. When is the new cutoff point, 12.00 today? Hope I'm entered ok.

regards

ray

Tom Quintavalle · January 30, 2020

Thanks Lottie, for the above ^^^^^, I'll get those entered up.

Err, I don't know about expert though? I do know a little bit, after 25+ Years in the Bookmaking Industry.

As for my Weather prediction, had to resort to - "Phone a Friend" (Ian Currie), and he didn't sound that enthusiastic about our Snow chances, for the rest of Winter.

Right Lottie, your line in my "Outright Winner" Fieldbook (where a Bookmaker records Bets, they have taken), looks as follows:

CATEGORY 1. OUTRIGHT WINNER

PUNTER SELECTION DATE STAKE "V"/R "V"/R (with Bonus)

Lottiekent Timbo @ 10/1 10th FEB £2.50 E.W. £36.25 £58.75

Listed below, are the "Virtual" Wagers placed on North Thames Members, for winning Category 2.

CATEGORY 2. NORTH THAMES WINNER

PUNTER SELECTION DATE STAKE "V"/R "V"/R (with Bonus)

Claret047 Claret047 @ 80/1 23rd MAR £2.50 E.W. £255.00 £455.00

Timbo Timbo @ 4/1 10th FEB £5 WIN £25.00 £45.00

TomSE12 Timbo @ 4/1 10th FEB £5 WIN £25.00 £45.00

K/Weather Team Squirrel @ 4/1 19th FEB £5 WIN £25.00 £35.00

John Stevens Team Squirrel @ 4/1 19th FEB £2.50 E.W. £17.50 £27.50

Septic Peg Team Squirrel @ 4/1 19th FEB £5 WIN £25.00 £45.00

Lottiekent Timbo @ 4/1 10th FEB £5 WIN £25.00 £45.00

KEY

Punter in Blue = North Thames Member.

Punter in Red = South Thames Member.

Punter in Black = Member outside Region.

Punter in Green = Guest.

"V"/R = "Virtual" Returns.

In a short while, I will Post up the list of "Virtual" Wagers placed on South Thames Members, for winning Category 3.

Regards,

Tom.

Tom Quintavalle · January 30, 2020

46 minutes ago, snowray said:

Hi Tom. When is the new cutoff point, 12.00 today? Hope I'm entered ok.

regards

ray

Hi Ray,

No, you're ok until 9 PM Tonight.

With that in mind, I'll wait until Tomorrow Morning to Post up the list of "Virtual" Wagers on South Thames Members, in case we get some late Entries.

Regards,

Tom.

snowray · January 30, 2020

16 hours ago, snowray said:

Here we go, more runs required but time is running out so here is the result of the Erith jury:

Cat1 Outright winner........snowray 22nd Feb £2.50 ew

Cat2 North Thames.........snowQueenOne 24th Feb £2.50 ew

Cat3 South Thames........snowray 22nd Feb £2.50 ew

Might as well bet on myself as any other date the way the models are looking right now.

Hi Tom, These were my entries from yesterday, but I changed Thames North to Claret047.

stainesbloke · January 30, 2020

Grotty, damp day here, feeling mild at 12°C.

Tom Quintavalle · January 30, 2020

QUOTE - snowray

"Hi Tom, These were my entries from yesterday, but I changed Thames North to Claret047."

Apologies Ray, I hadn't updated my Competition Folder.

I will Post up the complete List of "Virtual" Wagers for Categories 1 (Outright Winner), 2 (North Thames Winner), and 3 (South Thames Winner), Tomorrow Morning. Just another Hour until the "Virtual" Wager Entry Deadline expires, at 9 PM Tonight.

Below, are yours and Lottiekent's "Virtual" Wager Entries, in my "Field Book."(where a Bookmaker records Bets, they have taken), which now looks as follows:

CATEGORY 1. OUTRIGHT WINNER

PUNTER SELECTION DATE STAKE "V"/R "V"/R (with Bonus)

Lottiekent Timbo @ 10/1 10th FEB £2.50 E.W. £36.25 £58.75

snowray snowray @ 10/1 22nd FEB £2.50 E.W. £36.25 £58.75

CATEGORY 2. NORTH THAMES WINNER

PUNTER SELECTION DATE STAKE "V"/R "V"/R (with Bonus)

Lottiekent Timbo @ 4/1 10th FEB £5 WIN £25.00 £45.00

snowray claret047 @ 80/1 23rd MAR £2.50 E.W. £255.00 £455.00

CATEGORY 3. SOUTH THAMES WINNER

PUNTER SELECTION DATE STAKE "V"/R "V"/R (with Bonus)

Lottiekent Lottiekent @ 8/1 16th FEB £2.50 E.W. £30.00 £50.00

snowray snowray @ 8/1 22nd FEB £2.50 E.W. £30.00 £50.00

KEY

Punter in Red = South Thames Member.

"V"/R = "Virtual" Returns.

QUOTE - snowray:

"Can I go for claret047 instead please.

In fact a nice glass of vintage 1959 would go down well".

Never mind about your Vintage Wine, Ray!!. If Dave (claret047), wins the North Thames Region, Yours Truly faces a potential "Virtual" payout of £910!! Yours and Dave's Wager. I may well have to "Hedge" some of my liability. Does anybody want to lay me a "Virtual" £6 E.W. claret047 @ 100/1, for the first settling Snow to arrive on 23rd March?

Surely Weather Gods, you can come up with some settling Snow in the S.E. Region before then, can't you?

If not, myself and Septic Peg may well be eating "Virtual" Beans on Toast, for a couple of Months.

Will Post in the Morning and comment on the 00z Model Runs as more of our predictions, appear on the GFS Radar.

Regards,

Tom.

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South East and East Anglia Weather Discussion Sept 2019 onwards

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