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South East and East Anglia Weather Discussion Sept 2019 onwards

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3 minutes ago, lottiekent said:

Sadly I’m now back down in the town and so only 101 feet (31m) above sea level. I’ve already said our next move (in about 5 years) to what will hopefully be our “forever home” will be back up on the hills. 
I’m already paranoid I’m missing out down here!

Oh no Lottie!! I was going to install you as the Favourite, as you have previous Form.

Sorry Lottie, I don't mean that you're a criminal. :shok:

No, you of course won the inaugural running of the S.E.Snow Depth Cup, sitting up there on top of the East Kent Downs. 

Regards,

Tom.   :hi:❄️ 🌨️

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71 mts here currently in the A40 valley.

If our offer on a house is accepted, we'll be 171 which will be more interesting! Certainly get more chance of snow sticking around on the hills around here.

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I notice there are some late entries to our competition, I'll insert them  tomorrow now as late entries, this means that there will be penalty points knocked off since there have been further runs out since the 12.00 deadline and it would not be fair on the members who entered on time if they were entered on equal terms, a bit like a handicap race at Cheltenham.  As an ex-bookie, what are your thoughts on the late entries Tom, have you worked out who the likely favorites are going to be?😉

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22 minutes ago, Team Squirrel said:

71 mts here currently in the A40 valley.

If our offer on a house is accepted, we'll be 171 which will be more interesting! Certainly get more chance of snow sticking around on the hills around here.

Yes the Chilterns are often one of the best places to be in the SE for snow, you might even see a few flakes early next week if your lucky in that location.

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3 hours ago, TomSE12 said:

Apologies Daniel, I misread snowray's Post.!!  :oops:

Correct Daniel.

Quote - snowray:

"When will it snow next and settle in our SE region? Even a dusting counts but not sleet or hail, must be snow.

1st prize for who gets closest wins a pack of 4 Cadbury flake chocolate bars, offered by me.

Entrants have until 12 noon tomorrow the 23rd of Jan to submit a date.

Good luck everyone".

So, it's where in the S.E. will Snow, first settle.

I don't now need your Elevation!!

Think I'm suffering from C.F.S. (Competition Fatigue Syndrome), again. :shok:

Regards,

Tom.  :hi:

 

I think that the bonus prize of the Advocaat should be if someone guesses the correct date for settling snow in our SE region, and it actually also snowed at their home location on the same day. That would be a double 1st prize for the winner. If it's widespread snowfall this is likely to be the case anyway, but  the more marginal stuff will obviously favor higher elevations so it would be interesting to see how things panned out.

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Looks like SSW will start to kick in from 28th Jan leading into early Feb..............It's a start ❄️

Edited by yamkin

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10 hours ago, snowray said:

You can still do a late entry just for fun if you want? I'll add late entries to the list later on.

Thanks Snowray but now I'm reeaaaallly late lol, if I were to have a guess I'd go for 28th Feb (but I don't expect you to add me to the list!)

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3 minutes ago, Darkcloud said:

Thanks Snowray but now I'm reeaaaallly late lol, if I were to have a guess I'd go for 28th Feb (but I don't expect you to add me to the list!)

I was going to wait until midnight for late entries so your just in time. If I'm honest I wasn't expecting quite so many so will go through them tomorrow probably, I don't want to complicate things too much but they will be treated as a second tier of entries in the competition, so it will be a little harder to actually win, just to make things fair to those who hit the deadline.

None the less if you are spot on then your a winner anyway because it's not likely going to be easy to pick the correct date with the way the models are looking at the moment, things of course could change very quickly so we should have a bit of fun at least.

 

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Morning all,

Up early to view the 00z Overnight Model Runs.

Will be going shopping early with "Septic Peg" (my Wife Colette).

Got myself into "hot water" Yesterday Morning, when I got engrossed in the Competition and wasn't ready to leave our House, by 9 AM.

"Septic" has Irish blood and a real "paddy" on her and with myself being half Italian, it got a bit fiery for a while and the atmosphere in the House, was poor all Day!!

So I really don't want to incur the wrath of "Septic", two Days running. :nonono:

When snowray is about, if you could clear up a few points, about the Format for the Competition, I'd appreciate it.

Just want to quote your initial Post about the Competition, from Wednesday Afternoon.

"Hey anyone fancy a competition?

When will it snow next and settle in our SE region? Even a dusting counts but not sleet or hail, must be snow.

1st prize for who gets closest wins a pack of 4 Cadbury flake chocolate bars, offered by me.

Entrants have until 12 noon tomorrow the 23rd of Jan to submit a date".

1. Am I right in saying that the winning Entrant, will be deemed to be the one to correctly Forecast the first Date of settling Snow (even just a dusting but not Hail), in the S.E.Region?

2. Therefore an Entrants location and elevation, are irrelevant?

3.. Where 2 Entrants have chosen the same Date. Should they be correct, the winner will be deemed to be the Entrant that registered his prediction first? E.g. - Both myself and Steve Murr have predicted 14th February. Should we be correct in that prediction, I shall be deemed the winner, as I posted my Prediction 2 Hours, before Steve? Sorry Steve.

Having worked in the Bookmaking Industry for 25+ Years, soon learnt that ambiguity was the Punter's Friend and the Boolmaker's, Enemy.

During the last couple of Years of working for Croydon Credit Bookmaker, Sunderland, I helped to rewrite their Rule Book.

As a regular Entrant into my Horse Racing Competitions, I'm sure LASSIE23 will vouch for the fact, that I'm a "stickler" for Rules and entry deadlines, re. my Competitions.

When I "hosted" these "Fantasy" Competitions at work, I did so for quite a bit of Prize Money.

For one UEFA Champions League Competition I had around 35+ Entrants, each paying an Entry Fee of £25. This gave a total Prize Money of  around £1,000.

So, it was vitally importabt that Entries were clear, concise and met the Entry deadline.

I couldn't have Entrants handing in their Entries on the Wednesday Morning, after the first Match Night with a couple of Correct Scores and Goalscorers, in their Entry. With that sort of Prize Money on offer, quite rightly I would've got lynched.

Snowray, please let ne know if you've accepted those Late Entries and what penalty they have incurred?

I might employ the same penalties for a late Entry into my Horse Racing Competitions. Perhaps a deuction of £5, on your "Virtual" Returns Total. What say you LASSIE23? But I must admit, all my loyal and much valued Patrons of my Horse Racing Competitions, always have their Entries in promptly and in a clear and concise fashion!! :oldgood:

Will report back briefly, after viewing the 00z Model Runs. Then I need to be ready to leave the House at 8.45, otherwise I'll be getting a lynching, from Septic Peg!! :shok:

Regards,

Tom.   :hi: ❄️ ☃️ 🌨️

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8 hours ago, yamkin said:

Looks like SSW will start to kick in from 28th Jan leading into early Feb..............It's a start ❄️

Hopefully it will happen and hopefully impact on our part of the world. I remember last years record SSW produced absolutely zero for us in Western Europe so obviously nothing can be taken for granted. 

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Having viewed the 00z Overnight Model Runs from the big 3 (ECM,UKMO and GFS), still nothing remotely Wintry jumps out at me, in regard to a settling Snow situation for the S,E.Region, as we enter the last few Days of January and early February. 

Only the Chart below, the 00z from ICON at t153 (30th Jan), caught my eye. If this chart came to fruition, it could be argued that something Wintry could fall from the Sky, as the wave moves away ESE and introduces the briefest of cold shots, before a Ridge of High Pressure, topples across the U.K. 

image.thumb.png.3d9e70379fa815f14a1d29467b69bdb4.png

From the POV of formulating Betting Odds for the Competition, I don't have any firm ideas at the moment.

But what I would say is, those with very early predictions, already look on "shaky ground".

My Favourites at the moment would be those Entrants whose predictions are clustered around the 2nd/3rd Week in February. As we are aware, the Days are lengthening,the Sun getting stronger by the Day and to achieve settling Snow in our Region, starts to become more problematic. Of course there have been some notable Snowfalls in March but I think it's more common in February. And then that leaves GENERAL CUSTER, stuck out in November!! 

Pete, you are a caution, aren't you!! :oldgrin:

Regards,

Tom.  :hi:❄️☃️🌨️

 

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1 hour ago, TomSE12 said:

Morning all,

Up early to view the 00z Overnight Model Runs.

Will be going shopping early with "Septic Peg" (my Wife Colette).

Got myself into "hot water" Yesterday Morning, when I got engrossed in the Competition and wasn't ready to leave our House, by 9 AM.

"Septic" has Irish blood and a real "paddy" on her and with myself being half Italian, it got a bit fiery for a while and the atmosphere in the House, was poor all Day!!

So I really don't want to incur the wrath of "Septic", two Days running. :nonono:

When snowray is about, if you could clear up a few points, about the Format for the Competition, I'd appreciate it.

Just want to quote your initial Post about the Competition, from Wednesday Afternoon.

"Hey anyone fancy a competition?

When will it snow next and settle in our SE region? Even a dusting counts but not sleet or hail, must be snow.

1st prize for who gets closest wins a pack of 4 Cadbury flake chocolate bars, offered by me.

Entrants have until 12 noon tomorrow the 23rd of Jan to submit a date".

1. Am I right in saying that the winning Entrant, will be deemed to be the one to correctly Forecast the first Date of settling Snow (even just a dusting but not Hail), in the S.E.Region?

2. Therefore an Entrants location and elevation, are irrelevant?

3.. Where 2 Entrants have chosen the same Date. Should they be correct, the winner will be deemed to be the Entrant that registered his prediction first? E.g. - Both myself and Steve Murr have predicted 14th February. Should we be correct in that prediction, I shall be deemed the winner, as I posted my Prediction 2 Hours, before Steve? Sorry Steve.

Having worked in the Bookmaking Industry for 25+ Years, soon learnt that ambiguity was the Punter's Friend and the Boolmaker's, Enemy.

During the last couple of Years of working for Croydon Credit Bookmaker, Sunderland, I helped to rewrite their Rule Book.

As a regular Entrant into my Horse Racing Competitions, I'm sure LASSIE23 will vouch for the fact, that I'm a "stickler" for Rules and entry deadlines, re. my Competitions.

When I "hosted" these "Fantasy" Competitions at work, I did so for quite a bit of Prize Money.

For one UEFA Champions League Competition I had around 35+ Entrants, each paying an Entry Fee of £25. This gave a total Prize Money of  around £1,000.

So, it was vitally importabt that Entries were clear, concise and met the Entry deadline.

I couldn't have Entrants handing in their Entries on the Wednesday Morning, after the first Match Night with a couple of Correct Scores and Goalscorers, in their Entry. With that sort of Prize Money on offer, quite rightly I would've got lynched.

Snowray, please let ne know if you've accepted those Late Entries and what penalty they have incurred?

I might employ the same penalties for a late Entry into my Horse Racing Competitions. Perhaps a deuction of £5, on your "Virtual" Returns Total. What say you LASSIE23? But I must admit, all my loyal and much valued Patrons of my Horse Racing Competitions, always have their Entries in promptly and in a clear and concise fashion!! :oldgood:

Will report back briefly, after viewing the 00z Model Runs. Then I need to be ready to leave the House at 8.45, otherwise I'll be getting a lynching, from Septic Peg!! :shok:

Regards,

Tom.   :hi: ❄️ ☃️ 🌨️

Hi Tom, yes that's correct, so if it were to snow and settle somewhere in the SE region on the 14th Feb then you would win as you entered before Steve, if it snowed at Steve's location, but not at yours then he would win the Anvocaat bonus prize. The reason that I said anywhere in the region is purely due to the fact that the way things are looking currently with model output it's going to be tough going to get settling snow anywhere in our region in the next few weeks so to make it a bit easier.

I'm going to add the late entries but not sure how to handle the penalty points yet, don't want to complicate things too much.

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20 hours ago, snowray said:

Ok, so here is the list of the 18 members who are participating in the competition in date order, a nice manageable number 18.

 

Entry number         Member                                    Dates (2020)

1.                            Timbo                                       10th Feb

8.                            TomSE12                                 14th Feb

10.                          Steve Murr                               14th Feb

11.                          Septic peg (Guest)                    15th Feb

2.                            Lottiekent                                  16th Feb

9.                            Team squirrel                            18th Feb   

3.                             Stainesbloke                            19th Feb

13.                           snowray                                    22nd Feb

17.                           Bluebell                                     22nd Feb

18.                           snow Queen one                       24th Feb

14.                           SenlacJack                                26th Feb

5.                             Donna thw                                 27th Feb

4.                             pinball wizard                            29th Feb

16.                            lassie23                                    29th Feb

7.                              Snowrye                                   1st March

6.                              Froze were the days                 9th March

12.                            claret 047                                  23rd March

15.                            General Cluster                        29th November

 

Good mix of dates there, most are going for mid to late February and into early March. If I have missed anyone or a date is wrong please let me know. 

Down to you Tom to calculate some odds now.

Thanks everyone for taking part, hope we can have some fun whatever happens with the weather.

Good luck.

snowray

 

Ok, here is the list of the late entries that are now also in the competition.

19.             Katherine basso                          31st Jan

20.              laurren                                        20th Feb

21.              Bazza118                                    10th April

22.              Daniel                                          15th Feb

23.              Mark Wheeler                               22nd March

24.               john stevens                                29th Feb

25.               Darkcloud                                     28th Feb

The penalty that I have decided is that your entry will have to be spot on to win, not the nearest. Although if your just one day out and it snows in your home location then that would be good enough to win.

 

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Cloudy, calm and 7°C here. Have to admit to being rather bored of the weather at the moment, as there’s not a lot of ‘weather’ to speak of. Been buying seeds and bulbs/tubers, am starting to look forward to Spring and being outside gardening. Long way off, though. It’s colder in Prague today, currently 0°C but cloudy and dry. Nothing exciting weather-wise there, either. Hopefully, something a little more exciting to come, soon.

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Below, is the updated and final list of Entrants, after snowray updated the list, this Morning.  

I've decided to split the Entrants into 2 Groups, as I did in my Snow Depth Cup.

BLUE - Thames North and RED - Thames South.

     NETWEATHER S.E.REGION SETTLING SNOW CUP

ENTRY NUMBER     MEMBER                             DATES (2020)

19.                            Katrine Basso                          31st Jan 

1.                              Timbo                                       10th Feb

8.                              TomSE12                                  14th Feb

10.                            Steve Murr                                14th Feb

11.                            Septic Peg (Guest)                  15th Feb

22.                            Daniel                                       15th Feb

2.                              Lottiekent                                 16th Feb

9.                             Team squirrel                            18th Feb

3.                              Stainesbloke                            19th Feb

20                             Lauren                                       20th Feb

13.                            snowray                                    22nd Feb

17.                           Bluebell                                      22nd Feb

18.                           snow Queen one                       24th Feb

14.                           SenlacJack                                 26th Feb

5.                             Donna thw                                  27th Feb

25.                           Darkcloud                                   28th Feb

4.                             pinball wizard                            29th Feb

16.                            lassie23                                     29th Feb

24.                            John Stevens                            29th Feb

7.                              Snowrye                                   1st March

6.                              Froze were the days                9th March

23.                            Mark Wheeler                          22nd March

2.                              claret 047                                 23rd March

21.                            Bazza118                                 10th April

15.                            General Cluster                       29th November

A final Total of 25 Entries. - 8 Thames North and 17 Thames South.

So the Thames South Group outweigh the Thames North contingent, by 2 to 1.

"Come on you Reds." :yahoo:

I need to go and have a look at the 12z ECM Model Run and then try and cobble together some Betting Odds.

But will need a short refresher course on how to create a Book (Betting Odds).

I've forgotten everything I've learnt during 25+ Years of working in the Betting Industry/

Thanks Brain Haemorrhage!! :oldangry:

Regards,

Tom.   :hi: ❄️ 🌨️ 🌨️

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23 hours ago, TomSE12 said:

Hi Bluebell

Thanks,  I've actually seen Snow falling, in Icklesham. 

Quote - Katrine Basso.

"Hello My altitude for Daiglen Drive South Ockendon is 22 metres. (72 ft)  I think the snow will arrive either on 30 January or the 31st January".

Hi Katrine,

I'm quite happy for you to enter the Competition but as it's snowray's Competition, it will be his decision, as you've Posted your Entry, after snowray's deadline. If your Entry is accepted, you will be in the Thames North Group.

Don't think you can have 2 Dates though? That would be like trying to back 2 Horses, with one Stake.

We're not "Buy 1 get 1 free"!! That's Sainsburys, next door. :oldgrin: I'll put you on 31st Jan for now. Please let me know, if that's ok?

Quote - Daniel.

"Eek looks like I’m too late but I’m going to be adventurous, morning of this 27th hope north downs count."

Again, same as Katrine above. It will be snowray's decision.But what are you doing on the North Downs? Anything to get away from your 5.8 Metres, in Rotherhithe. Would think snowray means settling Snow, at your home location. If your Entry is accepted, you will be in the Thames South Group.

After my Dinner, I will Post up those Betting Odds and a Racing Post type Form Guide for each Entrant, as to which type of Synoptic set-up, would benefit them most.

Regards,

Tom.   :hi: ❄️🌨️

 

Hello Tom,

Thank you, I will choose the 31st January as the date of the arrival of snow.

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Well done Tom, thanks, you are doing a grand job there...just waiting now for some betting odds. Come on you reds, lovely jubly as they used to say back in the day in South London.:oldgrin:

:drinks:

 

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6 minutes ago, Katrine Basso said:

Hello Tom,

Thank you, I will choose the 31st January as the date of the arrival of snow.

You are indeed entered for the 31st Jan Katherine.

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We currently have some potential snowfall on the GFS 12z for eastern regions on the 6th of Feb, so Timbo is looking favorite to me, still a long way to got and when Tom produces odds they will be very early betting odds so they will change and fast if something super tasty turns up in a more reliable time frame.:oldgood:

 

gfs-0-318.png

gfs-1-318.png

gfs-2-318.png

Edited by snowray

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What happens if it snows say just a passing shower and a dusting on the coast (I should be lucky) does that qualify? I take it anywhere in the 'South East' which I take as London, Surrey, Middlesex, Essex, Kent, Hertfordshire as well as Bedfordshire?

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Hi Katrine,

Thank you, for confirming that Date with me. But, tbh, I think you're "staring down the barrel" a bit, with that Date.

Below, are the 12z ECM and GFS "take" on the situation, on your predicted Date (t168), and very similar they are too:

                    ECM 31st Jan                                                         GFS 31st Jan

image.thumb.png.bc7a0d8be519aeb0dea94966aeab04a0.png                image.thumb.png.5fa4578136662951c45fbbf165cf710a.png

But there's still time for the Synoptics, to change. A Week is a long time, in Meteorology!!

Katrine's is the first prediction to appear on Forecast Model's Radar.

TIMBO is up next with 10th Feb.

I will Post up a couple of t168 Charts, as we count down to each Entrant's predicted Date.

Don't think I've got enough time to put together some Betting Odds, Tonight. I need to get to bed, soon after 9.

"Septic Peg" (Wife,Colette), has a 12 Hour shift in a Chislehurst Care Home, Tomorrow. I will be getting up with her at 5.15 AM, in the Morning. We've had a much calmer Day, Today, after Yesterday's problems and I really don't want to "rock the boat", by disturbing her sleep.

So, instead I will go and update my Horse Racing Competition, over on the Lounge Thread. 

This will give me more time Tomorrow, to devote to the "Settling Snow" Competition.

Regards,

Tom.   :hi: ❄️ 🌨️ ☃️

Edited by TomSE12

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1 hour ago, Froze were the Days said:

What happens if it snows say just a passing shower and a dusting on the coast (I should be lucky) does that qualify? I take it anywhere in the 'South East' which I take as London, Surrey, Middlesex, Essex, Kent, Hertfordshire as well as Bedfordshire?

Yes even a snow shower if it settles if its confirmed, there will be people around our region who will be posting snow reports and pics as usual if and when we get some snowfall.

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1 hour ago, TomSE12 said:

Hi Katrine,

Thank you, for confirming that Date with me. But, tbh, I think you're "staring down the barrel" a bit, with that Date.

Below, are the 12z ECM and GFS "take" on the situation, on your predicted Date (t168), and very similar they are too:

                    ECM 31st Jan                                                         GFS 31st Jan

image.thumb.png.bc7a0d8be519aeb0dea94966aeab04a0.png                image.thumb.png.5fa4578136662951c45fbbf165cf710a.png

But there's still time for the Synoptics, to change. A Week is a long time, in Meteorology!!

Katrine's is the first prediction to appear on Forecast Model's Radar.

TIMBO is up next with 10th Feb.

I will Post up a couple of t168 Charts, as we count down to each Entrant's predicted Date.

Don't think I've got enough time to put together some Betting Odds, Tonight. I need to get to bed, soon after 9.

"Septic Peg" (Wife,Colette), has a 12 Hour shift in a Chislehurst Care Home, Tomorrow. I will be getting up with her at 5.15 AM, in the Morning. We've had a much calmer Day, Today, after Yesterday's problems and I really don't want to "rock the boat", by disturbing her sleep.

So, instead I will go and update my Horse Racing Competition, over on the Lounge Thread. 

This will give me more time Tomorrow, to devote to the "Settling Snow" Competition.

Regards,

Tom.   :hi: ❄️ 🌨️ ☃️

 

40 minutes ago, snowray said:

Yes even a snow shower if it settles if its confirmed, there will be people around our region who will be posting snow reports and pics as usual if and when we get some snowfall.

Thank you @snowray for the late entry and @TomSE12 for the forecasts!! It brings a little excitement to the otherwise fruitless search for snow this winter

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