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Blessed Weather

South East and East Anglia Weather Discussion Sept 2019 onwards

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2 hours ago, Blessed Weather said:

I don't think so Debby. Here's a tweet from the Met Office this evening stating 1053.6hPa is the record set in Aberdeen in 1902 and is not likely to be broken "tonight".

1188999844_MetOffHighPressure19Jan.thumb.jpg.47966e67ebdd0f8db9de2f24c47228b7.jpg

Edit: I forgot to mention the excellent blog from our own Nick F this afternoon:

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WWW.NETWEATHER.TV

Central pressure of intense anticyclone centred over SW England Sunday night could reach 1050 hPa, last time this happened was 16 Jan 1957.

 

Certainly the Welsh record has been broken however the highest English pressure record I can find is Highest: 28 January 1905, Falmouth, Cornwall 31.097 inches of mercury (1,053.1 hPa).[61] so not sure the English record has been broken?  

Looking at some of the highest values for the South East 

London/Heathrow 1949–2005 1047.3 1 09h 7 Feb 1964

South Farnborough 1957–2005 1047.9   (no data 1/1974–11/1983) 09h 7 Feb 1964

so those records may very well have been broken.

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Beautiful evening . Crisp underfoot and when you step outside you feel the cold bite your face and attack your throat as you walk out . Beautiful 

Edited by Mark wheeler

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According to the BBC Wednesday will be a messy day, what should we expect.....any ideas?

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Morning all,

Up early again (5 AM), but no Breakfast with the Wife this Morning.

Fortunately no work either Today for Colette, after 3 consecutive 12 Hour shifts. She's still wrapped up snuggly in Bed and having a well deserved, lie-in.

We'll probably get out for a bit of shopping later on.

I'll concede to the Weather Presenters, that it's a little bit nippy this Morning with at last, a decent Frost to report.

You'll also be pleased to hear, no rambling monologue from me this Morning!! :nonono:

But I would like to Post up a few Screengrabs, to illustrate my Post.

First some from MeteoGroups' extended Forecast, last Night with Stav Danaos:

             image.thumb.png.ce63a6794db2efb2209378e468442053.png

Our intense High Pressure eventually recedes away S.E., with the Atlantic "waiting in the wings", to turn it wet, windy and milder again. 

           image.thumb.png.eec996a37776e4018d79e68163649e52.png

Stav, explaining that a reinvigorated Jet Stream will start to throw Low Pressure at us again, the coming Weekend and beyond.

Finally a Screengrab of Alina Jenkins and Todays' Forecast, depicting Lassies', messy Wednesday

          image.thumb.png.0141f684b5a7bb69d27e560760d49ba5.png

Regards,

Tom.   :hi:

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Just poked my head out of the Front Door, and the Frost isn't as thick as I thought it would be.

If I hear, on my travels Today, anybody moan about the "Cold", I'll "crush a grape" in Sainsburys!!

Just taken a few "Screengrabs" , from Laura Tobins' Forecast, on GMB.

Fancy this arriving on your Doorstep?:

image.thumb.png.7811161ec8573a57cc2e2de3b5699525.png

Not only raging Bush Fires but also the worst Dust Storm they've ever seen, in New South wales.

Swiftly followed by violent T/Storms with Golf Ball sized Hail:

image.thumb.png.103a31d7291545203f8cc05ea4620c46.png

But I'm sure some of you would say "yeah", bring it on!!

This is where all our Snow is!! This was the scene in Newfoundland Yesterday. A state of Emergency was declared, with up to 76 cms of Snow, recorded:

image.thumb.png.8e84f69b2409f6aa83d4bf4d858b5ea6.png

So, it could be a lot worse and some colder Weather with a bit of Frost and Fog around, really isn't the end of the world!!

Regards,

Tom.    :hi:

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Temperatures stayed up above freezing this morning North of Cambridge - plus 1 to 2 with patchy frost here and there. Not as cold as yesterday in these parts with high cloud too. 

Frost certainly possible in the next few days but not as deep as we experienced Saturday night, high probability the next few days will stay similar ie +1 to 2 with patchy frost. Nothing to write home about really!  Looking like temperatures slowly on the rise into the weekend/next week once again. The wait for winter continues !! 

 

 

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Just want to Post up the view of 4 Forecast Models (00z Runs), of the situation at 6 Days (t144), hence:

                                                                                                                                                 

                          ECM                                                                             GFS    

image.thumb.png.23e23fc25e65d5c0ecd18aa50f59d481.png                    image.thumb.png.0cebca0224d9aef2d255daaff6af2cb3.png    

                          ICON                                                                          UKMO

image.thumb.png.59054f8e08e846d0714896b7ce3b2dff.png                   image.thumb.png.2b847e7b1c74b4aa385f913da39384f9.png

All are pretty similar. Apart from ICON, which has a more influential Ridge from the Azores High, helping to keep the U.K. bathed in a Mild S.W. flow. 

I would suggest from a "Coldies" perspective that the UKMO is the pick, which had it gone out a Day or so further, may well have introduced a colder, N.W. flow.

Regards,

Tom.   :hi:

 

 

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Edited by TomSE12

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My nearest official weather station, Herstmonceux ( approx 12 miles to my west ) recorded it's first air frost of the month this morning, also the first since December 12th 2019. A mere -1.0c. The air pressure has also just peaked at that station with 1049.2 hPa though there is a chance it might rise again in the next few hours.

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Hardly had a frost this morning I swear here out near the Essex coast we have our own micro-climate when it comes to such things!...down to 2c last night which is very run of the mill stuff and the wait for the first air frost goes on...and will probably have to wait until we actually get a cold air mass over the country which seems mission impossible.

Edited by Froze were the Days

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Actually saw some ice today 🥳 there was a puddle of water frozen over. However not much of a Frost as it goes, went down to 0c here. So obviously it felt a little colder today.

oh sunny and there a little cloud this morning.

 

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38 minutes ago, bluebell said:

Everyone has beat me to it with the weird cloud scenes today! It was quite mesmerising, I took a picture from the car, was travelling to and from Ringwood in the New Forest so had lots of opportunities to see it from different angles! 😅

I wish I’d stopped along the seafront to take a pic, the sun was setting behind the cloud formation and it was a beautiful red/pink, with the dark silhouette of Beachy Head. Anyone with a decent camera would have nailed a super duper snap!

Anyway this is my poor effort, bear in mind I was in the car travelling at speed! 

08BB9540-C315-440D-AA5D-373930EAA15E.jpeg

That is far from a poor effort ! Thanks for sharing 🙂 

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Beautiful pics of the warm front 😍 Thank you for posting them. There are plenty of cloud varieties that are interesting, just not the ubiquitous slate grey, featureless ones (unless it’s a snow sky, of course). 
Not a bad day here.

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Yes, great pictures, but was it really a warm front? It was moving south and replaced by crystal clear skies. Cold front if anything or a stalled warm front?

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2 hours ago, Mikel Nimbus said:

Yes, great pictures, but was it really a warm front? It was moving south and replaced by crystal clear skies. Cold front if anything or a stalled warm front?

I have no idea if it was a front* of any kind but there were some fantastic photo's posted on the local Facebook Groups I'm a member of as it came across the region. Gutted I missed it.

*My thoughts are it must have been a front of some kind as it was so clearly defined. I'd be interested to hear the thoughts of those more knowledgeable than me.

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Second coldest night of the winter here in inner London -0.7C a strong frost. Lovely winter’s morning.
 

3A47BF02-9AB5-4867-A54C-E99B7E56CB32.thumb.jpeg.ee83493e4d4b0f257cad6e9d6eabdbeb.jpeg

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Morning all,

Yes, having poked my nose out of the Front Door this Morning, it does seem to be the coldest of this short spell of "colder" Weather. Certainly a Frost is more in evidence this Morning.

But the "bleak news" from the overnight 00z Model Runs continues, this Morning.

Our intense area of High Pressure looks to slip away Southwards, by the end of the Week, which will allow the Atlantic and attendant mild and unsettled Weather, back in again.

Further on, any Height rises with a colder N.W. flow, imo look very brief with a Ridge soon "toppling" over the U.K.

To my mind, the ECM 00z t240 (Day 10) looks very unappealing, with High Pressure locating in a very "Bartlett" type position, as we close in on February:

 image.thumb.png.1c3d4303462565cbf221104eeba20d6d.png

So, the wait goes on and the Clock ticks!!

Even I can't make a Silk Purse, out of a Sow's Ear. :nonono:

Regards,

Tom. :hi:

Edited by TomSE12

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Got down to -2.1 here earlier this morning,3rd coldest of the winter.Still thick frost on cars and grass.That looks like it now from a frost pov as milder air topples in and we look mainly cloudy and frost free from tomorrow till end of the week.As Tom says unless there is a big u turn from the models fairly safe to say January will be another snow free month for this region as will first 3-5 days of February 😔

Enjoy the sunshine of today fellow SE Threaders👍

 

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O.5c here. Thick white frost on cars and roofs. It felt 'heavy' out there, could feel a light breeze but no trees etc were moving. 17c odd degrees warmer and i'd be taking about how humid it feels. As far as feels though, it felt quite refreshing, but it was cloudy. 

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